Weekend Estimates by Klady
Not too exciting. The only question on Quarantine is whether it will end up at $30m or $35m… either way, it’s well into profit for Screen Gems. The only question on Beverly Hills Chihuahua is when Beverly Hills Chihuahua II will be released. Rachel Getting Married remains a strong, if not world-beating arthouse player, looking like the $10m – $15m range domestically is what’s possible.. Body of Lies opening behind Quarantine is a show of brutality and even if the film ends up doing three-to-one foreign-to-domestic, WB will take a financial hit… and unlike so many of their films, this is one where the studio didn’t split the funding. On the other hand, Universal may not eat anything on The Express, which was paid for mostly by Relativity Media.
You know, the story of the economic downturn is not so much the studio stock prices, but the economic model that the studios have been moving to in a hurry, which is to let someone else pay for the movie and for the studio to make their money on marketing and distribution only.
Ironically, this is why hiring someone like, say, uh, Terry Press at MGM is equally, if not more important to the studio’s future financing as hiring Mary Parent. For the last few years, MGM has sold producers on the distribution deal by dangling their Showtime pay-TV deal with a very thin team handling marketing, etc. This made for a lot of very soft releases. But with a top studio level; marketer in tow, the pitch will now be that companies like Relativity and Walden will get better and closer attention at MGM than with a distributor that has a bigger release schedule and little investment in working as hard on movies that others own as their own product.
It appears that the Eagle Eye kid is for real.
Body of Lies did about as well as it could given the confusing ad campaign and the subject matter.
I’m also glad to see Religulous grossing the crap out of American Carol.
So Appaloosa may end up outgrossing the COMBINED take of City of Ember, Blindness and Flash of Genius. Damn.
A couple of observations on this weekend. People in online forums clearly have no idea what it takes to successfully market certain kinds of movies. All over the internet (youtube, IMDB, defamer(!!) etc) posters were disparaging the marketing for the Chihuahua movie as “the worst they’ve ever seen.” I realize Disney had a good date for an under-served audience, but movies don’t open to $30 million just because competition for the target is light.
As for Body of Lies, question for the board: what is the biggest opening for a movie (non-sequel) in which it isn’t clear in the advertising what the movie is about? From the TV spots I had no idea really what Burn After Reading was about, and that was the Cohen’s biggest opening, so there’s that…
I think Burn After Reading was a success even though the ads mere muddled because it looked like fun with some famous people. Body of Lies on the other hand did not look like fun, looked like it was perhaps about the war and didn’t make a lick of sense. The story isn’t that something like Body of Lies only debuted at #3 behind Chihuahua and Quarantine, but that in it’s third week EagleEye made only a couple of mil less.
I asked it last week and I’ll ask it again – why did anybody make Flash of Genius? It was obvious to anybody and their dog that this movie had no audience whatsoever.
Ouch second week fall for Blindness though. I’m really quite surprised that won’t even get to $10mil. I know it’s bleak, but the pedigree wasn’t exactly unheard of. Oh well.
Lastly, maybe Gil Kenan should stick to animation, eh?
“As for Body of Lies, question for the board: what is the biggest opening for a movie (non-sequel) in which it isn’t clear in the advertising what the movie is about? From the TV spots I had no idea really what Burn After Reading was about, and that was the Cohen’s biggest opening, so there’s that…”
Lane, this is an icredibly glib comment. First of all what does this prove in relation to Body of Lies? Second, I think most people understood two things: A. Brad Pitt plays an idiot. and B. The movies is going to be a comedy with A List cast. What else is there to know (that said the ads very kind of direct actually). That alone would make for a fairly easy sell to today’s audience.
You should also keep in mind that a carrer best opening for people like Coen Bros. (as brilliant as they are) doesn’t mean much.
Lastly, you observation about advertising of Chihuahua is valid on the surface (in that it was advertised well) but it fails to take into account that the people that it did turn off (and did so in a very real way) were not the target audience. You also fail to mention the role the current economy and the general moviegoers’ state of mind plays in this and other movies’ (that included Burn) continued success.
Off topic, but I just point out that I love that the international poster for Kathryn Bigelow’s Hurt Locker references Point Break! Hah. Amazing. http://www.impawards.com/2008/hurt_locker.html
cool
What exactly was so hard to understand about the marketing for Body of Lies?
DiCaprio plays a CIA agent in the field who finds himself in conflict with his office-jockey boss played by Russell Crowe who thinks he knows better about how to solve the stuff DiCaprio is out in the field trying to solve.
How was this even remotely difficult to understand?
RP: these are the same people at Warners, that had no idea how to sell fucking Speed Racer. A movie that’s about a guy who loves racing and his family. If they cannot sell that RP. They cannot sell Body of Lies and indeed they failed at that as well.
^^^ They just need to stick with Batman, eh?
IO: It’s very hard to sell what people have no interest in buying.
IT WAS OBVIOUS THAT BODY OF LIES WAS ABOUT OWNAGE.
AND QUARANTINE FUCKING OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNS.
HOLY SHIT DID THAT OWN; LIKE, I SAW BODY OF LIES SEVEN TIMES THIS WEEKEND AND ROCKNROLLA FOUR TIMES…
AND NOTHING OWNED AS HARD AS QUARANTINE.
QUARANTINE = BEST PICTURE OF 2008.
HANDS FUCKING DOWN. MASSIVE MEGAOWNAGE.
But Lex, does that mean “Twilight” will have to settle for sub-ownage?
Only saw Body of Lies 7 times, Lex? After proclaiming last week that you’d already pre-bought tickets to 11 different showings?
Guess it just didn’t OWN as much as you expected. Or maybe you’re full of it. Theories varry.
Though, if you spend as much time rewatching movies as you claim… it certainly explains a lot about your social skills.
Audiences are funny about plots… sometimes they care, sometimes they do not.
No one went to see Burn After Reading because the concept / plot looked interesting. It’s because it was a Coen Bros. comedy with Brad Pitt with weird hair. That’s all.
Body of Lies. Who’s the good guy? who’s the bad guy? why does Leo have a fake beard? oh, it’s not fake? why is crowe fat? Is it about terrorists? Again, sometimes they care, other times no.
I saw Body of Lies on a Friday night at one of the biggest theaters in LA, and the theater was sparsely crowded at best. Ouch! The movie was just uninteresting from start to finish. I frankly could have cared less about anything involved.
I agree, hopscotch, but I think the real issue with “Body of Lies” — well, in addition to being lousy — is that it’s a movie that seemed like it would be plot-heavy (and is) but that couldn’t figure out a way to sell the plot.
I can’t believe you guys were so underwhelmed by THE LIES.
Figured you’d at least be pumped to see Ridley back to widescreen, kinetic form after oddly deciding to shoot “American Gangster” through the lint filter of my apartment’s dryer.
THE PREDICTION STANDS:
TWILIGHT, 55 MIL OPENING DAY, 125 MIL FIRST WEEKEND, BEST ACTRESS NOMINATION FOR KRISTEN STEWART.
And, Nick, it will obviously achieve TOTAL OWNAGE but after QUARANTINE and ROCKNROLLA, the BAR IS SET HIGH.
Lex I’m not going to argue Twilight’s box office with you. I don’t know anything about the series of books or their popularity. You may very well be right about it having a huge opening weekend. But talk of a Best Actress nomination is pure lunacy. For a teen vampire romance aimed at the MTV crowd? Seriously?
DON’T DOUBT THE STEW.
She will BRING IT.
(Though I guess since I didn’t specify Oscars, it’s not too late for me to backtrack and say I meant “…for an MTV MOVIE AWARD.”)
55 MIL OPENING DAY. TAKE THAT TO THE BANK.
Yeah MTV Movie Award sounds far more likely. That I will not argue with.
Hey Lex, I’ll bet you it makes less than that. The wager will be, the loser has to go to therapy and/or AA.
Jeff, you are kind of making me go slightly off-topic to address this on a day after I’ve been awesomely OWNED by Poland, but I personally do not believe in any form of therapy or psychiatry.
I am not an alcoholic, so your other suggestion is also denied. But thanks for the condescension!
125 MIL OPENING WEEKEND. Wait and see!
Lex, why will Twilight succeed where other movies-based-on-popular-books have failed? And you have that much faith in Summit?
“I personally do not believe in any form of therapy or psychiatry.”
Then stop using this blog as your personal sounding-board for everything that’s wrong with your life. A couch is more comfortable and less annoying to me.
Stella, I know what you mean, but this is much, MUCH closer to a HARRY POTTER level of complete MANIA, crossed with the possibility of TITANIC-level repeat viewings from the core audience. Who are planning to see it multiple times every day. Check the IMDB message board for TWILIGHT; Hardly scientific, but it is updated SEVERAL TIMES A SECOND.
Not even DARK KNIGHT had that much fevered pre-release anticipation.
I’m gonna go see if they have any Kristen Stewart T-shirts at Hot Topic yet.
That would own.
Well if the books are really that popular and if anticipation for the movie is really that feverish, it will be a good test for Summit. Like I said, I am totally unfamiliar with the series. My 21 year-old sister loves it though.
TEAM BELLA 4 LIFE.
Shut up, Lex. And don’t email me anymore either, you creepy man.
Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle.
Joe, I would be happy to reopen that particular can of worms if you are, Mr. Still-owes-me-an-apology.
When you’ve got an obvious flop, always go name-checking or Oscar-whoring in your ads. In a precarious economy the public will know well enough to stay away.
And we are three-for-three.
Does anyone know what Chucky is talking about?
Name-checking: “Body of Lies”, “Nights at Rodanthe”, “Fireproof”, “Religulous”, “An American Carol”, “RockNRolla”.
Oscar-Whoring: “Appaloosa”, “Burn After Reading” (in the red-band trailer of all things), “Flash of Genius”.
Both: “Blindness”.
Yeah, and of those, the only total flops are An American Carol (who did they name-check?) and Flash of Genius (a movie about windshield wipers). Fireproof and Religious are successes based on niche expectations and budgets, Nights at Rodanthe and Appaloosa are in break-even territory, Rocknrolla was in 7 theaters, and Burn After Reading is a bona fide (if modest) hit and the Coens’ second-highest grosser.
Conclusion: facts are dispensable when you’re crazy.
Enough of this. The only movie that’s gonna OWN is THE LOST SKELETON RETURNS AGAIN.
Believe it.
Jeff, you want an apology? OK: You have no idea how sorry I am that you’re such a pussy. You have no idea how sorry I am that you’re such an asshole. You bhave no idea how sorry I am that LexG has to put up with a creepy person like yourself.
Er, you HAVE no idea how sorry I am that LexG has to put up with a creepy person like yourself.
Cadavra: And when pray tell might we see this movie?
Stella’s Boy said: “Lex, why will Twilight succeed where other movies-based-on-popular-books have failed? And you have that much faith in Summit?”
I expect Twilight to do extremely well, myself. It’s not just that it’s based on a popular book, it’s that it has a rabidly devoted fanbase who are addicted to the series — and I don’t mean that as an exagerration. They are manically obsessed with the book series and the upcoming movie. They have an enormous, well-organized online presence of many millions, who follow minutely anything and everything about Twilight online. I know this well, having an 11YO daughter who is obsessed with Twilight, along with many of her friends. The series has a cross-generational appeal, look for women in the 25+ demographic to flock to this as fans of Sex and the City flocked to that. It has a very large fanbase in the teen and preteen girl demographic as well, and I won’t be surprised if Twilight comes out with numbers close to what I expect to see out of the High School Musical 3 opening weekend. Maybe not quite Harry Potter numbers, but I think it will far exceed the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus opener (just over $31 million) and will likely exceed the Bridge to Terabithia domestic take of $82 million. I think Lex’s numbers are fairly accurate, perhaps even undershot a bit.
Kristin Stewart could very well pull off an MTV award.
I don’t know if Ms. Voynar is right or not, but consider this: Her reasoned argument is sound, and she has a first-hand insight that I daresay many folks on this blog don’t have. I’m sorry, but all too many people who post here (yeah, including me) automatically assume that their life experience is somehow universal. It ain’t.
Check out Awesome Voynar recognizing the Lexman!
And, yeah, I guess some are asking if SUMMIT can give this the push, but with this property it’s presold.
This could be released by VESTRON VIDEO and it would make bank.
Sayeth Lex: “And, yeah, I guess some are asking if SUMMIT can give this the push, but with this property it’s presold.
This could be released by VESTRON VIDEO and it would make bank.”
Summit’s shown excellent judgment so far, I think. They recognized early on the value of playing directly to the huge online fan base and making them feel invested in the process of making the movie; the fanbase feels an ownership to this film that, I think, is pretty equivalent to the ownership Harry Potter fans feel for that series.
They’ve done a good job with pacing the release of stills and new posters, letting excitement over one release simmer down before they stir the pot up with the next. They’re working as closely with the major fansites as they are with the press, inviting fans to set visits (which they then blog about, which then drives many millions of hits, for every single new Twilight-ish thing that comes down the pike.
It’s really quite an amazing phenomenon, and Summit seems to have a really good feel for how to market it to both the pre-teen and teen set, and the Twilight Moms set, without compromising either.
“Kristin Stewart could very well pull off an MTV award.”
Well that last bit had me laughing out loud…
I don’t disagree that Twilight won’t be somewhat big – an opening of $35 and a final of $100 sounds reasonable – but Lex’s figures are, by design, ridiculous, and his interest in the movie is not based on having a daughter or hanging out with 11-year-olds (I sincerely hope).
Hey Joe:You know what, I still don’t understand what your problem with me is, except that you are apparently irrational and bored (as evidenced by your constant, pointless needling of Poland). If I knew how to make amends with you, I would, but since I don’t, and since you clearly prefer having people to antagonize, I can’t.
And for the record, my email correspondence with Lex is one-sided on his end. When I want to hang out with drunks, I go to a bar.
Oh, and in actual movie discussion news…
Just got back from Body of Lies. It was sooooo boring! And for sure I see why it didn’t make much money – it’s basically the action movie version of Syriana or Rendition. One of my friends said it reminded him of a hammy Chuck Norris ’80s movie, but if it was one of those it would have been half an hour shorter with a cleaner narrative flow.
Kim, perhaps you misread Lex’s box office predictions for Twilight and I’d suggest you take another look before saying Lex “undershot” his estimate. $125mil opening weekend?
125 MIL SON.
TAKE THAT TO THE BANK.
TEAM BELLA.
You will go see any fucking horrour film piece of shit and PRAISE IT (Like P3 and countless other trite), then SLAG BODY OF LIES? Oh come on. You are making this to damn easy. If you think it’s boring. Please do not watch Burn Notice, 24, My Own Worst Enemy, The Prisoner, Alias, I SPY, Get Smart, and every other damn TV or RADIO spy drama ever. It’s a good solid flick, that features one suave Jordanian motherfucker. It also explains why US intelligence needs a different tact, my dear.
Oh yeah; Lex may be only 20 to 40m off. I can easily see Twilight doing some serious box-office that weekend. These are women. Women rarely get even cinema. Do you really see them bailing on Edward Cullen? I think not.
That’s EVENT cinema for those scoring at home. “Well Kenny, I got to say this kid is faster than greased pigs hoped up on Lightning.”
“You said it Jerry. This kid types so fast, that he brings about LAG on a website.”
“He’s a combination of Flo Jo, Earl Campbell, Manute Bol, and Cam Neeley rolled up in one.”
“Damn tootin.”
“Let’s get back to our game. Where Lex and his team of Kristen Stewart clones are beating Jeff and his team of Balthazaar Getty clones at field hockey 15 to 3.”
“This is some heavy Getty on Stewart action, Kenny.”
“That’s right Jerry. I haven’t seen this much action on a field since that time Camella Giovanni and I spent that night on the Westerbury High football field.”
“That’s an over-share Kenny.”
“Oh snap it… OH MY GOD! KRISTEN STEWART JUST BROKE BALTHAZAAR GETTY’S COCCYX!”
“He was bad-mouthing Zathura – directed by Jon Favreau — Jerry.”
“Indeed he was. Indeed he was. While there is a medical time out on the field. Let’s go to a commercial break for David Poland’s MEAT SANDWICH HEAVEN!”
“Have you ever awoken at 3 am and asked yourself; ‘I want a MEAT SANDWICH?’ If so. Please visit David Poland’s MEAT SANDWICH HEAVEN!”
“David Poland only uses the finest meats to put in his sandwiches. While Subway, Quiznos, and occassionally Blimpe’s use lower grade meats for their sandwiches. David Poland only puts the best cuts of anghus, rib eye, lambchop, pork chop, roast beef, and other assorted Italian meats in his sandwiches.”
“So if you crave the best sandwich money. Stop by David Poland’s MEAT SANDWICH HEAVEN. You will be glad you did or your kids eat free (if you do not have kids. You get a 2 for 1 coupon upon your next visit.”
“DAVID POLAND’S MEAT SANDWICH HEAVEN HAS FIVE LOCATION TO SERVE YOU. IN EAST HABERBROOK BY THE SAM’S. IN WEST LEONARDO BY THE LEONARDO, LEONARDO MALL. ON THE INTERSECTIONS OF ROUTES 11 AND 38 ACROSS FROM THE SUPPER TARGET. IN SOUTH FAIRCHILD SITUATED ACROSS FROM THE BORDERS. AND IN NORTH LIPTONSHIRE DIRECTLY ACROSS FROM THE FIRESTONE TIRE CENTRE.”
IOI, I have never seen P2 (or P3), you are mistaking me for someone else.
Also, I have never watched any of the shows you mentioned except for The Prisoner (which is not really a spy show) and a few I Spy episodes (again, more of a buddy adventure show). Regardless, I stand by my position that it’s a lame, boring, poorly-structured slog of a movie. If you wanted to give a cogent argument for your side of the argument, I’ll give it a look.
Otherwise..Balthazar Getty? Meat Sandwiches? Can someone translate for me?
Oh my God, IO OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNS.
That was CLASSIC. *ROLLING* over here.
Though PLEASE don’t liken McDouche to NBK/Lost Highway OWNMASTER Getty… giving him WAY too much credit.
Fuck did that rule.
jeff: are you telling me you somehow missed the classic West Wing episode with Balthazar Getty as Jed Bartlett’s nephew, a field hockey star who loses his lucrative meat sandwich endorsement deal when Kirsten Stewart breaks his coccyx? Crawl out of your hole, man.
I watched AMERICAN GANGSTER two times tonight, thanks to the magic of the multiple HBO channels.
AND GUESS WHAT? Thanks to the magic of TIME ZONES, it starts again in 11 minutes.
Guess who’s going for viewing NUMBER THREE in one night. Good thing I downed six RED BULLSHITS in between my vodka and 10 beers.
FUCK do I OWN.
Kamikaze Camel wrote: “Kim, perhaps you misread Lex’s box office predictions for Twilight and I’d suggest you take another look before saying Lex “undershot” his estimate. $125mil opening weekend?”
Yes, I did misread that, so let me clarify. I think a $55 million opening WEEKEND for Twilight is not unreasonable, and about a $125 million total take may be a bit of an undershot. If you look at the Harry Potter openings as a watermark (and I think the fan base mania is very similar), the highest opening weekend was $102 million for Goblet of Fire (IMO the worst of the HP movies). Order of the Phoenix dipped $30 million or so for its opening weekend, but did end up making more overall than Goblet of Fire.
No Harry Potter film has grossed $125 million on opening weekend, and I don’t see Twilight hitting that high of a mark out of the gate. Bridge to Terabithia made roughly $22 million on its opening, ending up with $82 million or so overall (and that is an older, but much beloved book that parents took their kids to because they remembered the book from their own childhoods, mostly — not a book that had an enormous fanbase from the kiddie set going in).
Spiderwick Chronicles is a bestselling series, and the movie opened at just $19 million, making $71 million domestic total. The Lemony Snicket movie (which was so, so awful) had an opening weekend of $30 million, ended up making $118 million domestic total. And while both of those series were quite popular, neither of them had the enormous fanbase mania and momentum that Twilight has, and both those series were targeted just at the kiddie lit set, whereas Twilight has a huge crossover, hitting both the pre-teen and teen girls and the older women, which is kind of an interesting thing in and of itself.
Sex and the City did a $57 million opening weekend targeting just the women; Twilight actually has a huge contingent of fans in that demo, so it’s not unreasonable to think that it could hit a big chunk of it’s opening numbers from that base, while also pulling a sizeable opening weekend from the preteen-teen girls who went to see the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus concert in a limited release to the tune of a $30 million opening weekend. I’m very curious to see the numbers High School Musical 3 pulls when it opens.
So based on all of that, I would estimate an opening weekend take of $55-60 million (under HP numbers, but higher than Bridge to Terabithia, Spiderwick or Lemony Snicket) is a pretty reasonable estimate, and could possibly even nudge up a little higher, but I’d be very surprised to see it surpass the highest opening weekend of the Harry Potter series. Overall gross is going to depend on the job Catherine Hardwicke does with translating the book to the film. If it’s good, and the fans perceive it as a solid translation, look for them to go see it over and over again, which will drive up the total.
When Titanic came out, my oldest daughter, who was 12 at the time, saw that damn movie 23 times at the theater with her pack of friends. If they love the film, Twilight fans will want to see it again and again. If you’ve not been around any Twilighters, trust me, you have no idea how completely obsessed they are with the series and all things Bella and Edward.
THE LOST SKELETON RETURNS AGAIN and his MEGAOWNAGE BONE ASS CACKLING has already reduced me to TOTAL OWNAGE.
Lex, you have really bad taste.
Christian, is there a trailer somewhere that I need to see?
Fresh from its smash world premiere at the Mill Valley Film Festival, THE LOST SKELETON RETURNS AGAIN will have its L.A. premiere Sunday, Nov. 9th at the Egyptian Theatre. (The original will run before for those in need of a refresher.) That doesn’t help Mr. Leydon, though. Sorry.
Jeff: No actual trailer yet, but there are several clips at the website. Since David keeps forgetting to post the link, looks like it’s up to me:
http://www.lostskeletonreturnsagain.com
Mega-apologies to David. I just noticed he DID post the link.
Kim: you seem to think the old models work. When those models were broken, stomped on, set on fire, and urine was used to put them out. Twilight is not Harry Potter. It’s a completely different phenomenon, that people like you are undersellling. It’s also a clear FIRST LIKE PHENOMENON because most people do not see movies repeatedly. It’s not 1997. It’s 2008, and the ladies will be lining up for this flick. So do not under-sell it, when it can easily BLOW YOUR FREAKIN MIND box office-wise next month.
Jeff: Once again, it’s called being silly. I was being silly. Roll with me man. Roll with me.
WEEK not LIKE… ROLL ON… DOWN THE HIGHWAY!
“Kim: you seem to think the old models work. When those models were broken, stomped on, set on fire, and urine was used to put them out. Twilight is not Harry Potter. It’s a completely different phenomenon, that people like you are undersellling.”
People like me? IO, I was writing about Twilight being huge before most of my male colleagues on the internet even knew it existed. How is saying Twilight will do at least a $55 million opening weekend, and that $125 million overall is probably an underestimate, in any way underselling Twilight? I think it’s likely to make a lot of money, easily enough to justify the second book being adapted as well.
I’m curious what you think the opening weekend and overall take for the film will look like. Over $100 million? Are you predicting Harry Potter-level numbers here? Like, $200-300 million overall domestic? More?
1.25 BILLION DOMESTIC TOTAL.
#1 MOVIE OF ALL TIME.
Kim: if you are discussing the hype of these books. You have to know it’s real. So if you follow your thoughts out to conclusion from there. It’s quite possible the flick does anywhere from 80 to a 100 opening weekend. 55 just seems low for a flick, that will get the women out to see a movie. Which is not the easiest thing to do. So 55 is a good number, but it’s a low number.
IO, there’s a difference between ‘silly’ and ‘random strings of words strung together for the amusement of no one but the person writing them.’
I find it hard to believe that the women who showed up for Sex and the City are not – for the most part – the same women who will be showing up for Twilight on opening weekend. The people showing up for Twilight are the ones who cringe at the sight of chest hair who will grow up to be scarred for life when they realise that not every man is waxed to within an inch of his life. Like they did with the male star of the movie (whose name is…?)
Lex, if anything you say is true, then go to rehab for your own sake.
KamikazeCamel wrote: “I find it hard to believe that the women who showed up for Sex and the City are not – for the most part – the same women who will be showing up for Twilight on opening weekend. The people showing up for Twilight are the ones who cringe at the sight of chest hair who will grow up to be scarred for life when they realise that not every man is waxed to within an inch of his life. Like they did with the male star of the movie (whose name is…?)”
…Robert Pattinson, who previously played the doomed Cedric Diggory in the HP films. The demo of which you’re speaking, though, Kamikaze, is maybe half the demo for Twilight. The older female fanbase for this series is huge, for whatever reason the fantasy aspect of Twilight, much more than other vamp series aimed at the teen market, has really tapped into the older female group.
Perhaps it’s because Meyer is herself an older woman and mother, perhaps it’s true, as some feminists have gone on the bandwagon about, that Meyer projected her own fantasies so much onto Bella as a Mary Sue, that it’s tapped into the fantasies they already had. But go hang out over on the Twilight Moms website — a site dedicated to female fans of the series who are over 25, married, and/or mothers. It’s just huge, and these women are as obsessed, if not more obsessed, than the teen set.
So, if Twilight does end up drawing close to the $57 million opener for SatC, combined with the dollars of the teen demographic that took the Hannah Montana concert to over $30 million (and that was a limited release, this will be wide), it could conceivably take in over $55 million, and the $80 million-ish range IOs talking about for opening weekend is not outside the realm of possibility. I’m waiting to see how HSM 3 does opening weekend, because that movie will have much the same teen demo as Twilight’s.
And with HP out of the way right now, what else will be opening around December 12 to compete strongly for either demographic?
Well, maybe the ladies will still be flocking to Australia?
Maybe, Joe. Hard to say at this point. I myself have minimal interest in Australia, and probably wouldn’t knock myself out to see it if I was just looking for a movie to see for fun. But then, there are a lot of movies I would go out of my way to see, that most people probably wouldn’t.
It will be interesting to see how all the chips fall, at any rate.
Jeff: you really are a grandpa.
Been hearing that since I was 10.