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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady

So now we know

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43 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. It’s too bad Pride and Glory is being dumped. Despite the bland title, it’s a good meat-and-potatoes New York City cop drama. Voight gives a nicely textured performance. Farell is magnetic as ever as the heavy, sprinkling the right amount of humanity during his more disturbing scenes. Norton gives his first wide-awake performance in a long time. While I still have a hard time believing him when he tries to play a blue collar character, he shines in scenes when he is forced into making a tough decision.
    Also, the way the movie resolves itself is a real surprise, and a satisfying one.
    Godard said the best way to critique a movie is to make another movie. Pride and Glory is the movie We Own the Night wanted to be.
    Like most good movies, I hope it finds an audience on DVD and TV. It feels like the kind of movie F/X TNT would play constantly.

  2. chris says:

    I’d argue the exact opposite — that “We Own the Night” is the movie “P and G” wishes it were.

  3. EthanG says:

    Ugh to both of those films.
    Haven’t seen a single HSM, but am excited that the musical genre seems to be holding on, and that the resurgance of the genre isn’t some post “Moulin Rouge/Chicago” fad. Definitely looking forward to “Repo! The Genetic Opera,” despite the director, and “Fame” and “9” are on its heels next year.
    Disapointing opening for “Let the Right One in…” better for “Ive loved you so long” and KST.
    We have THE STRANGEST OPENING OF THE YEAR in “Noah’s Arc: Jumping the Broom” a gay African American niche film with a title that could be considered offensive in some quarters. $30,000 per theatre..>WTF???
    And yes, as I said last week, “Max Payne” is staring at around $40 million after a 57% dropoff. Hardly what Fox was expecting.

  4. David Poland says:

    James Gray is too talented a filmmaker to self-exile by making the same movie over and over.
    And Gavin O’Connor, who broke out at Sundance almost a decade ago, is clearly talented. I wonder why nothing came of Miracle, which was a box office success for a major studio… leading to… nothing.
    These are the kinds of films that television has replaced… absolutely. The Shield, Damages, etc. But actors love to play these roles, so they can still get funding based on certain actors, low budgets, and foreign. But it doesn’t make them bad or wrong to make. It just makes them brutal to market.

  5. Kim Voynar says:

    “Another indicator of younger kids NOT being carted off to HSM3 was the good hold of Beverly Hills Chihuahua, which did another estimated $6.8 million and dropped just 40% against the movie that should have marked the dog days of the comedy.”
    Well, yes, but HSM 3 was not really targeted at kids younger than the tween demographic of 9-12-year-olds, so I’m not sure you can really use that as an indicator. I’m not sure there’s as much awareness among the younger set of that franchise as you might think, unless they have an older sibling who’s nuts about HSM. If it weren’t for my almost-12-year-old being all over HSM, I don’t think the youngers would be more than peripherally aware of it.
    “And I have to ask, who was floating this stunning stupid notion yesterday that HSM3 was some sort of game-changing new-metric phenomenon of kids seeing the same movie multiple times in the opening weekend to a degree that was just off the charts?”
    There’s nothing new about that. When I was a kid, my friends and I went to see particular films over and over again on opening weekend (most notably Grease and Purple Rain), and my oldest daughter (now 23) saw Titanic repeatedly, spending her allowance for many consecutive weekends to see it with her friends. There’s nothing new or game-changing in kids liking repetition.

  6. chris says:

    Actually, I think you could argue that “Miracle” led to him making a dream project. It just didn’t work out and was held up for a year by the studio’s travails.

  7. movieman says:

    Hoping to avoid the tweeners and kiddies who, I assumed, would still be in school, I caught “HSM3” at an early matinee Friday afternoon, only to discover that the theater was mobbed with rugrats and Hannah Montana wannabes (many of whom were accompanied by their Sarah Palin wannabe moms).
    What the f*** indeed?! Was Friday some kind of national holiday nobody told me about? Or can kids pretty much do anything they damn well please these days, including skip school when they have something better to do…like see “HSM3”?
    Now that I’ve gotten by grumpy old man rant out of the way, I’ve gotta say that I sorta/kinda liked the movie. It’s genuinely sweet and moderately charming; it’s heart is in the right place (promoting musical theater as a noble high school aspiration); and that Effron kid is undeniably gifted. And it certainly isn’t any sillier (or generic-plastique) than those 1960s Frankie & Annette beach party movies.
    Still haven’t been able to bring myself to partake in “Saw 5” yet. Guess I’ll save that for a midweek matinee: yawn/sigh.
    Did anybody else bother renting “Birds of America” last week?
    The cast (Matthew Perry, Hilary Swank, Ben Foster, Lauren Graham and Ginnifer Goodwin) and director (Craig Lucas) intrigued me, but it’s easy to see why it bypassed a theatrical release and went straight to dvd. While hardly terrible–and certainly watchable enough in a minor-key sort of way–it’s just not “special” enough to make anyone bother getting off their living room couch in order to see it. Which pretty much sums up my feelings about “Pride and Glory,” too.

  8. Hallick says:

    “Did anybody else bother renting ‘Birds of America’ last week?”
    You know, until I read you post here and checked IMDb, I honestly thought it was some kind of Animal Planet documentary hosted by Matthew Perry. Unless you’re looking closely at the cover art, that’s exactly what it appears to be.

  9. David Poland says:

    Sadly, Craig Lucas rewrote the screenplay that drew that cast to the project at the last minute and the result is the dreck that is now direct-to-dvd.

  10. LexG says:

    I wonder if the MAX PAYNE drop was at least partly due to the misleading campaign that makes it look like some sort of CONSTANTINE/END OF DAYS movie… when in fact most of that element is pure window dressing in a fairly straightforward detective movie.

  11. Kim Voynar says:

    “Did anybody else bother renting ‘Birds of America’ last week?”
    Urp. Saw Birds of America at Sundance, and was decidedly unimpressed with it there. I recall feeling while watching it that there had to have been a good movie in there somewhere, but unfortunately, it never made it to the screen.

  12. leahnz says:

    movieman! (i’m with you, those little disease-carrying rodents should be in school where they belong)

  13. Jerry Colvin says:

    In 35 years of regularly attending multiple movies every month, this is the first time I’m aware of when I have not seen any of the box office top ten.
    But I might end up seeing W. soley because I like Brolin (my Superman!) and Banks…

  14. EthanG says:

    Vanessa Hudgens looks pretty good nekkid.

  15. movieman says:

    Is it strictly an American phenomenon, Leahnz, or do kids pretty much rule everywhere these days?
    As lenient as my parents were (e.g., taking me to see “Midnight Cowboy” and “Last Summer” when I was eleven), they would have never allowed me to take a day off school just to go to a movie…no matter how badly I may have wanted to see it.
    I remember pleading with them to let me skip school to see, uh, “Dr. Dolittle” when I was in the fourth grade. Common sense prevailed, however, and I was forced to wait until the weekend. (And this was back in the day when movies traditionally opened on Wednesday, not Friday.)
    I was particularly disappointed in “Birds in America” because Craig Lucas wrote “The Secret Lives of Dentists,” one of my favorite American movies of the decade. And the “Birds” cast is aces down the line. Hopefully Matthew Perry will fare better in “17 Again” next spring. I was a big fan of Burr Steers’ last film (“Igby Goes Down”), although this one (obviously) looks a lot more formulaic/cookie-cutter.

  16. scooterzz says:

    movie — funny you mention ‘last summer’ as just yesterday i was lamenting that it and ‘red sky at morning’ (two of my favorite coming-of-age films) will probably never hit dvd……i don’t even see them show up on cable anymore….

  17. I remember watching High School Musical with some friends and thinking it was terrible and then, knowing what we were getting into, when we watched High School Musical 2 we were a bit more expectant of said badness and found it hilarious (anybody who has seen it surely laughed at Zac Efron’s golf course prancing and weird/scary/demented moment where he sings to his own reflection in a pond).
    The Saw problem is getting worse! Didn’t even the Nightmare on Elm St and Friday the 13th sequels start to peter out by now in terms of grosses?
    Speaking of which, what did people think of the Friday the 13th trailer? Looks exactly like Marcus Nispel’s Texas remake just set at Camp Crstal Lake and with Jason in stead of Leatherface. That bit at the end where Jason comes running towards the camera/futuredeadgirl is actually quite freaky. Jason and agility don’t tend to go hand in hand.

  18. leahnz says:

    movieman, my impression is that kids these days are allowed to get away with a lot more than back in the day; i’m no expert, just one mother, but parents seem more lenient and eager to please, to be ‘friends’ with their children than when i was growing up; my grandad, who helped raise me, used to say, ‘you’ll get nothing and like it!’ i’m not quite that much of a hard-ass but i figure my boy will have plenty of friends growing up, and only one mum to help him become the best man he can be.
    (sorry if all that’s a bit cheesy)

  19. And to tthink of all the shit Spike Lee had to endure when he dared to suggest kids skip school to see Malcolm X? At least the “kids” would’ve learned something.
    I was a senior during the Spring of ’97. The thought of me and my ffiends leaving school at lunch on the day of the Star Wars re-release was rather tempting. Alas, we went back to school after lunch.

  20. Well, I was kind of one of those idiots. Looking at the Hannah Montana numbers, I thought that HSM3 would do half the per screen average, and end up with about $85 million. I was sure that HSM3 would be a far more mainstream product than Hannah Montana and attract people who wouldn’t be caught dead at a G-rated 3D concert film.
    Alas, I was wrong. While my $82 million guess was obviously pie in the sky, I’m shocked that it didn’t even beat the October weekend record. I’m saying the movie is a failure. God forbid I become the sort to label a movie as a disappointment because it didn’t live up to my inflated expectations. But it did literally 1/4 of the per screen average of Best Of Both Worlds. Considering you were serving the same audience and that (theoretically) High School Musical could draw people that Best Of Both Worlds could not, I’m a little stunned at the number.
    By any normal rationale, $42 million is a great number. I was just expecting something more epic. Of course, it could pull a Phantom Menace and pull in another $35 million next weekend (no competition, after all), but otherwise it may struggle to even hit $100 million. What was less likely? That it would earn $80 million on opening weekend or that it would fail to earn $100 million total?

  21. eoguy says:

    Did anyone else make the mistake of seeing Passengers? I went for Anne Hathaway but I came out feeling ripped off. It has one of those twist endings that makes you wonder why you even gave them your time in the first place.

  22. Bennett says:

    I still wonder why Disney picked a October release date. I am sure that Halloween parties ate into the gross…Plus, With Halloween next Friday, it will help kill it’s grosses…Even though the first one was released in january…the films always had a summer feel. It is fun fluff….certainly not any worse than the Footloose/Grease2/Pirate Movie stuff I grew up with. Regardless, the gross will mean that any future HSM will be back on Disney Channel, though parent company might wanna consider an ABC run.
    I guess my big question is why couldn’t they rush this out in August. August could have really used a movie for the HSM demo. Kiddies in this demo are not gonna see Pinapple Express or Tropic Thunder.

  23. David Poland says:

    Scott… I wouldn’t call you an idiot for thinking a mega-number might happen.
    But this idea that it would change how kids go to the movies? Beyond dubious.

  24. Appreciate the support, but it was a blown call where I subconsciously bent the facts (the Hannah Montana numbers) in order to fit my pre-determined hypothesis. And no, it had nothing to do with alleged repeat viewings, I was just expecting repeats to cause strong midweek business.
    However, mazel tov to Disney for not letting expectations like mine become the norm. If they were able to set the line at $40 million, then $42 million is considered a success.
    It’s funny how the new game over the last 15 years or so has been to downplay everything. In the old days, studios bragged about running times, now they act ashamed of their longer movies. In the old days, they used to boast about their budgets, now they emphasize how much they didn’t spend. And, when I first started playing the box office guessing game back in the very early 1990s, studios seemingly didn’t care who thought their picture would gross what. Of course, now that box office bingo is a mainstream sport, where meaningless predictions by unlearned players can have real consequences, they have to keep expectations in check.

  25. a_loco says:

    “Regardless, the gross will mean that any future HSM will be back on Disney Channel, though parent company might wanna consider an ABC run.”
    Dude, that’s the stupidest thing I’ve heard all month, with the possible exception of that old woman calling Obama an Arab. From what I understand, the film was made for about $10 mil, meaning that any theatrical release in the future is about the same as printing non-inflating money. Expect good legs, and even if they aren’t, any future installment will get the same big-screen treatment.

  26. Joe Leydon says:

    Scooterzz: And ever happened to Catherine Burns?

  27. scooterzz says:

    leydon — good question….that last wiki line is sort of haunting: ‘during the 1990’s while working as an office receptionist she was writing a play…’
    how does that happen?…i mean, i know how stuff like that happens, i’d just reeeeeeally like to know how it happened in this case…..

  28. chris says:

    Beg to differ about the marketing of “HSM3” to young kids. It’s clearly intended to play VERY young — barely even an icky kiss to turn off the little ones. And it is rated G. Heck, even animated films aren’t usually rated G anymore.

  29. Bennett, I believe the other two HSM movies premiered in October too so that the album can be big for Summer and then the DVD around easter or whatever.
    Scott, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus had the added extra of only screening in select cinemas so the per screen average was, obviously, condensed into fewer cinemas.

  30. christian says:

    NEWSFLASH: My neighbor took her 4 year old to see HSM. That’s the age bracket. It would have to be.

  31. a_loco says:

    I was going off of what I read from Box Office Prophets, not the best source of info, I know, but the rest of what I said still applies.

  32. movieman says:

    Thanks for sharing that story about your gramps, Leahnz.
    Gee, he sounds a lot like John McCain, lol.
    But you’re right about parents wanting their kids to “like” (forget love) them today. They seem to want to be their kids’ BFF, not their mom or dad. It really speaks to the infantilization of our entire culture–and I’ve got to believe it’s worse in America than anywhere else.
    And while I’m on this particular rant, when did it become socially acceptable to wear “shower slippers” in public 12 months a year? Is there some frightening shortage of socks that’s been left unreported in the media? Truly gross.
    We got our first snow of the season in northeastern Ohio this weekend, and I’m still seeing the shower slipper brigade sticking their naked piggies out for everyone to see. Put a sock (or socks) on it, folks: literally.
    Good call on “Red Sky at Morning,” Scooter.
    I haven’t seen that one since its original theatrical release.
    And Cathy Burns; wow! Talk about a blast from the past.
    What about “September 30, 1955”? That’d make a great rep house double-bill with “Red Sky” (and they’re both Universal movies)…if rep houses actually existed anymore.

  33. Bennett says:

    I Believe that HSM premiered in January 2007 and HSM2 premiered last August 2008…
    Regarding my ABC comment…..I believe that NONE of the kids are coming back…so they are basically rebooting a franchise with a new cast….So…….it might not be the worse idea to introduce the new cast to the demo on ABC/Disney Channel ala the first HSM….
    Of course, if they throw millions at the orginal cast….then what the hell….bring it out in theaters….Regardless…opening in October seems like a bad idea.
    Also, without the orginal cast the HSM brand might not be so successful…look at that god awful reality show they did last summer…Both in ratings and show quality…it was quite a dud..

  34. djk813 says:

    Expecting HSM3 to get half of the per screen average of the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus Concert film was just a wrong assumption to begin with. HSM3 was on more than five times as many screens. The Miley Cyrus movie had a substantially higher ticket price because it was 3D and was sold as a one week only event before they “added extra weeks to accommodate the demand.”

  35. Joe Leydon says:

    Scooterzz: It really is strange how some actors fade into obscurity — or, worse, burn out completely — after some very promising early work. In some cases, I guess, you can mark it up to an inability to handle the pressures of sudden fame and success. Some folks either flip out, or do drugs and booze, or behave in ways that burn bridges and derail careers — or all of the above. Others simply make really bad career decisions, and find that all it takes is two or three flops to douse even the brightest promise. And, yeah, I guess there are a few who just have one or two great performances in them, and that’s all she wrote. But still, you have to wonder…

  36. scooterzz says:

    bennett — the new cast (matt prokop, justin martin and jemma mc kenzie-brown) all have spotlight turns in ‘hsm3’ so they won’t be strangers to fans of the franchise when 4 & 5 roll around… mckenzie-brown is a brit newcomer but both prokop and martin have disney history…. martin, btw, has nice shots in ‘the express’, ‘the soloist’ and ‘black water transit’….
    leydon — hollywood crash & burn stories are a dime a dozen but they always seem more interesting when the subject appears so level-headed (as burns did…at least, in the interviews i remember)….enquiring minds and all that…

  37. Joe Leydon says:

    Scooterzz: Well, I guess there are all sorts of factors to consider, especially if we’re talking about an actress who isn’t conventionally attractive. I mean, I have to admit: I had a big crush on Catherine Burns around the time of Last Summer and Red Sky at Morning. But maybe — and I’m just spitballing a theory, I have no direct knowledge about this — she couldn’t land juicy roles that went to more conventionally attractive peers, and she got frustrated after having to settle for so much TV work. Again, that’s just a theory. Maybe she decided to put her career on hold for a while, to get married and have children, only to find that once she dropped out for a while, it was difficult (if not impossible) to regian the career momentum she once had. Bonnie Bedelia once told me that something much like that happened to her in the ’70s. She continued (and continues) to work after her “comeback,” but as for stardom? Well, it didn’t quite happen.
    Don’t get me wrong: Some actors are better off not becoming stars, because they’re able to sustain long careers doing impressive character roles. (Look at another Last Summer alumnus, Bruce Davison. Willard and The Strawberry Statement didn’t do it for him, but the guy still works a lot.) But to go back to our original focus: It is a bit odd, and even sad, to see a career that begins so promisingly, and then… poof.
    Whcih remids me: Anybody know what Paul Le Mat is up to these days?

  38. yancyskancy says:

    Judging from Catherine Burns’ post Last Summer credits, Hollywood simply had no idea what to do with her. Hell, they never know what to do with women who don’t fit comfortably into wife/sexy girlfriend roles. I’m surprised someone didn’t try to build a series around her.
    How does this thread mention Last Summer, Red Sky at Morning and September 30, 1955 without mentioning Richard Thomas? Situation rectified.
    Joe, I met Paul Le Mat a couple of years ago at one of those Hollywood Collectible shows. He was there with most of the surviving cast members of American Graffiti (minus A-listers like Dreyfuss and Howard). I had a nice chat with him, but naturally didn’t ask why he wasn’t working much lately. I thought he looked a bit frail for his years (he was about 60), but I haven’t heard of any illness. He seemed poised to be the breakout star of Graffiti, but even when he got great projects like Demme’s Handle with Care and Melvin and Howard, he somehow seemed to stay under the radar.
    I watched Graffiti again the other night (probably seen it a dozen times). What a great movie. That Lucas guy had such promise.

  39. movieman says:

    Not sure whether I mentioned his name in a similar, previous “Whatever became of….?/Why didn’t they become a star?” post, but how about Timothy Bottoms?
    After “The Last Picture Show,” Bottoms seemed even more on the verge of stardom than Jeff Bridges. But except for “The Paper Chase” (and “Love and Pain and the Whole Damn Thing” for cultists like me and Joe Leydon), he never lived up to his early promise…or got the type of roles that would have cemented his career.
    And while we’re on the subject of 1971 coming of age movies (“TLPS,” “Red Sky”), does anybody know whatever happened to Gary Grimes from “Summer of ’42”? Besides the not-bad “The Culpepper Cattle Company” and the terrible “Class of ’44,” I don’t remember seeing Grimes in anything post-“’42.”

  40. Joe Leydon says:

    Yancy: Well, actually, I guess you could argue that Richard Thomas wound up being the closest thing to a breakout star in Last Summer (with apologies to Barbara Hershey). After The Waltons, he did scads of TV movies and more recently has done lots of New York and regional theater. And I’ll never forget how freakin’ creepy he was in You’ll Like My Mother (1972). I caught him in that right before he started The Waltons and, frankly, I could never accept him as the nice-guy John Boy Walton. Every time someone would go out to the barn with him, I would scream at my TV: “Don’t go! Don’t go! Remember what he tried to do to Patty Duke!”
    Movieman: Timothy Bottoms has actually popped up quite frequently in TV episodes and indie movies since the mid 1990s. (I caught him in Paradise, Texas, a 2005 indie where he played, ironically, a once-popular movie star trying to make a comeback.) And, of course, there was that short-lived That’s My Bush! series. But you’re right: Nothing like what you’d expect after Paper Chase (which was a lot more popular than many people remember) and Last Picture Show. And Grimes? I dunno: Maybe when they stopped making Westerns, his career prospects dried up. Remember, in addition to Cattle Company, he also did Cahill U.S. Marshal (with John Wayne) and The Spikes Gang (with Lee Marvin).
    And, yeah, I did see Love and Pain at a time when I thought Maggie Smith was a MILF.

  41. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Saw V” opened in the AMC Empire and brought about a good old-fashioned crime spree. The Empire should have picked up “Rachel Getting Married” instead.

  42. movieman says:

    Joe- I forgot all about “Spikes Gang” (Dick Fleischer) and Wayne’s “Cahill.” Not sure what it was about Grimes that said, “Western,” but that couldn’t have been much help finding work back then.
    I actually have soft-and-fuzzy memories of “Summer of ’42” despite the critical drubbing it received at the time (which didn’t hurt it at the box-office: I seem to recall “’42” being one of summer 1971’s biggest and leggiest hits).
    Of course, I’ve always been a huge Bob Mulligan fan dating back to “To Kill a Mockingbird.” Loved Robert Surtees’ gauzy, aquamarine lensing, the sublimely romantic Michel Legrand score, Jennifer O’Neill’s vision of supreme period beauty and Grimes’ callow earnestness. “The summer knows” indeed.
    In “TLPS,” Bottoms came off like the second coming of James Dean (so achingly sensitive! so exquisitely beautiful!) I really thought he’d go far. Never in a million years would I have guessed that Randy Quaid would have wound up having the more successful career.

  43. sharonfranz says:

    I still can’t believe a sequel to a TV movie made so much money. Sure, it made most of its weekend haul on Friday, but it’s still impressive nonetheless. Frankly, even if it made half of that, I would still be impressed. I mean, it’s a sequel to friggin TV movie?! How often does that happen?

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4