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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady – 11/22/08

I believe that the Passion of the Christ had the previous record for the best all-time day by an indie release with a $33 million first Saturday. That film opened on a Wednesday, softening their Friday… but that doesn’t mean much when looking at just how huge this Twilight opening is. History would suggest a significant Saturday drop, but as I always point out, with numbers like this, everyone is guessing. At least one of Harry Potter’s November opening weekend records ($102.7m) is safe… but the other two ($88.4m and $90.3M) could be in danger. The best non-Potter start in November – The Incredibles‘ $70.5m – seems like dead meat.
Bolt will improve significantly on a $7m Friday… but the number will still end up being rather disappointing for Disney. Even Chicken Little opened to $40m. It may be the recession… it may be too much noise… it may be unclear marketing… hard to guess… but not a thriller.

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57 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady – 11/22/08”

  1. Blackcloud says:

    Certainly not LexG numbers, but a very strong performance nonetheless. I’m surprised, but more so by Bolt’s weak debut. Family flicks do better on the S-days, but this weekend belongs to Twilight. It’s just too bad that Twilight’s triumph represents the complete neutering of vampires. Never have they been more sissified and innocuous than they are now.

  2. Wrecktum says:

    The Bolt number is baffling.

  3. brack says:

    I think Bolt will get a big jump, not just bump, next weekend.

  4. Cadavra says:

    All I can say is that despite the reviews, the BOLT trailer was a real turn-off to me. Perhaps others reacted the same way. But yeah, way too early to completely write it off.
    As for TWILIGHT, looks like Lex forgot to buy an extra $20 million worth of tickets. But give the dude credit: it came closer than most of us figured.


  6. jeffmcm says:

    It still needs to make $130 million today and tomorrow for Lex to be accurate.

  7. Blackcloud says:

    I thought he said $125 million for opening weekend, so more like $90 million today and tomorrow. Either way, not going to happen.

  8. jbf81 says:

    you know I cant help to think that Robert Pattinson hit the jackpot with this film. The Studio already release an official press saying that the sequeals are gonna be made. I cant remember the last time that such unknown actor got so much media and fame for ONE film.

  9. IOIOIOI says:

    Pattinson has become more of a star from this movie then Kristen Stewart. Which should make Kristen Stewart happy. She does not seem that interested in fame anyway. Nevertheless; this movie will most likely will have a huge Saturday and Sunday, and this will carry into next week. Thus making it the phenomenom that it should be.
    It also does not make the Vampires a bunch of wussies, Cloudy. Vampires have been a bunch of bitches since the fucking 30s. They are about as meancing as hermit crabs. So stop the hating on Ed Cullen, sir. STOP THE HATIN!

  10. MattM says:

    Bolt was marketed too “kiddie” for tweens on up, and the PG rating probably scared some of the young ones away. Also, Twilight is perceived (rightly or wrongly) as “family friendly” entertainment and ate right into the audience for Bolt. Add to that Madagascar and HSM holding strong, and it just was not the best choice. Disney probably would have been better off holding it for next Wednesday, or even to 12/5 or 12/12.

  11. scooterzz says:

    another real winner in the ‘twilight’ bonanza is regent releasing…now, they’ll probably get a much better release for pattinson’s ‘gay’ movie, ‘little ashes’….at least, that’s my guess…

  12. jbf81 says:

    yeahh, I was thinking about taht too, the producers of Robert new film Little Ashes must be drinking champagne right now, tons of media coverage.

  13. jeffmcm says:

    Lex’s prediction was $165 million for the weekend ($55m each day) and a sweep of the Oscars.
    Unless maybe he wasn’t being serious.

  14. Blackcloud says:

    Lex, not serious? Never!

  15. White Label says:

    If I weren’t stuck in the house studying this weekend, I probably would have chosen Bolt over Twilight. That cute little hamsterball is the only reason I want to see it, though.
    With Twilight, I wish we had a way to gauge seat count instead of just $.

  16. Cadavra says:

    Well, the good news is that with Lex sitting through every show, we’ve had a virtually caps-less, Lex-free day here!

  17. Hallick says:

    “Well, the good news is that with Lex sitting through every show, we’ve had a virtually caps-less, Lex-free day here!”
    Either that or he’s selling his own blood to buy more tix to reach that $125 million target of his.

  18. IOIOIOI says:

    Someone has to support Kristen Stewart, and that’s Lex’ JOB… YO! I am also curious if Twilight can make more than Bond. I would not put it past this film to make a 100m in the weekend. Which would be rather strong, and lead to a sequel from a crap book. Thus making the Twilight movies the RIGHTING OF THE PROVERBIAL SHIP, that the Twilight books needed.

  19. scooterzz says:

    this type-pad thing is out of hand…

  20. scooterzz says:

    oh, great..that’s the post that worked…grrr….
    the ‘twilight’ sequel (new moon) was officially announced today but it was already a done deal…the cast was signed, the money was set (unless ‘twilight’ really bombed) and the last frame of ‘twilight’ did all but say, ‘to be continued’… hardwicke said at the press day that this one better make some bucks because ‘new moon’ is much more effects intensive (not to mention: werewolves not vamps…more/better make-up)….it’s a good week-end for summit…..sweet!

  21. scooterzz says:

    and, by ‘sweet!’…i mean good for summit…i still really disliked ‘twilight’….

  22. IOIOIOI says:

    I am very curious as to the way the werewolves will look. Let me also throw out there that I would not put it past native american groups to get rather put out by this plot point in a couple of years.

  23. Hallick says:

    type-pad’s been dicking with my posts all day too, scooterzz.

  24. IOIOIOI says:

    Did anyone really need Typepad to be updated? I never ever get these pointless fucking updatings. They seem so fucking pointless, that it bothers me when change happens for no reason what so ever. The original interface worked fine. This one… not so much.

  25. Blackcloud says:

    Glad to see I’m not the only one having problems with the new TypePad registration system. It’s a real pain in the neck. Like a vampire, it sucks!

  26. scooterzz says:

    io — i think they’ll dig it…jacob is THE HOTNESS…taylor lautner TOTALLY OWNS…
    (well, that didn’t feel good at all….i doubt i’ll try that again)….

  27. LexG says:

    Got better with EACH of my NINE VIEWINGS (so far.)
    Between this and his TOUR DE FORCE in NEVER BACK DOWN, for which movie will the Academy see fit to reward Cam Gigandet? That dude OWNS all.

  28. PastePotPete says:

    So is Summit going to get screwed out of their money by the theaters like Newmarket was with Passion of the Christ? Or is the sequel enough leverage to get their money?

  29. scooterzz says:

    too late lex….taylor lautner owns…

  30. scooterzz says:

    gee…sorry for the double post but …..

  31. christian says:

    Who knew Lex was a female tweener in disguise?

  32. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Their likes are his likes.
    Their desires are his desires.
    To capture one …. he must become one.
    Coming late 2009
    Starring :
    LexG as Chad Sofcoq
    K Stew as Schowus Urmons

  33. christian says:

    That’s fucking funny.

  34. jeffmcm says:

    How many times did you _really_ see it, Lex? I presume just once because otherwise you’re a genuine weirdo.

  35. Blackcloud says:

    Who else besides IO and Lex saw it? Besides the critics, I mean. Anyone?

  36. jeffmcm says:

    Actually, I don’t think we know if Lex has seen it at all, since the contents of his posts before and after the release are exactly the same meaningless goo.

  37. Blackcloud says:

    Good point. He probably didn’t see it. If he had, it would have made $200 million this weekend, right?

  38. Wrecktum says:

    I saw it. It was OK. Rather prude and mostly dull.

  39. IOIOIOI says:

    Yeah yeah yeah.

  40. I saw it Friday afternoon at the Arclight before the Nixon/Frost screening.
    Long review short – I didn’t buy the dreamy romance at all (Edward is kind of an ass, all things considered… Bella could have done much better), but everything else was pretty compelling and entertaining (the relationship with her father, the down to earth schoolmates, the foreboding but quirky native americans, the goofily polite vampire family, etc). Ironically, according to the New York Magazine, much of the stuff that I liked about Twilight were alterations and additions not found in the original book.
    For those that care…
    My review –
    My examination of the gender politics –

  41. mutinyco says:

    Mormon verdict:
    Vampires = Good
    Gay Marriage: No So Good

  42. T. Holly says:

    If it could manage to say porn: bad, I’d be there. Scott, I’ll read yours if you tell who q&a’ed and write a little sometim about it, since I had to nix frost.

  43. T. Holly says:

    You dice the sexism well and line it up, Scott. I’ve read the bunch that are out there, and yours is for the records. Kim will take the check or block.

  44. I believe Ron Howard and one of the writers was there. I didn’t stay for the Q&A as I wanted to spend some time with my wife. I won the tix through an Arclight contest, but was then told I couldn’t bring a guest due to ‘overcrowding’ – it was so crowded that the seats next to me on both sides were empty.
    Frankly, I’m not a huge fan of Q&As. Aside from seeing Al Gore speak after An Inconvenient Truth, the only really good one I ever went to was the opening night of Hellboy II (everyone had a substance-filled question). In my personal experience, some idiot usually ruins it by asking a boring general question (such as ‘what was your fondest memory of making the film?’) that requires a long-ass response from each speaker and takes up half the allotted time. Unless it’s someone I desperately want to meet, I don’t usually stay for the after-chat.
    I will be posting a Nixon/Frost review in the next couple days (I’ll be out of town for Thanksgiving, so I’m using the Frost/Nixon review as non-time-sensitive material to keep the blog flowing). Short story – it’s entertaining and well-acted (Sam Rockwell and Oliver Platt are quite splendid), but it tries so hard to be a politics and journalism = sporting competition that it feels like a Rocky sequel by the end.

  45. IOIOIOI says:

    Scott: you are cloned from Heat. I find that hilarious. You also need to watch Buffy the Vampire Slayer. The Twilight film played very much like the first season of Buffy. It could be seen at sexist. If you ignore the source material. If you know the source material. You get that it’s more female empowerment than anything else. Which explains why Bella is clumsy and Edward is the super-pimp vampire.

  46. IOIOIOI says:

    because only in fantasy could the super athletic guy fall for the clumsy girl :D!

  47. T. Holly says:

    See what happens when you open the Q&A up to the floor?
    Who could blame you for heading home on a Saturday night after two movies? Never trust those “overcrowdeds.” Still wondering who did the initial Q&A and moderated.

  48. I adore Buffy The Vampire Slayer. I suppose the big difference is that Buffy can and does take care of herself, and that Angel is actually worth having a relationship (ie – he’s actually charming and thoughtful). Of course, on Buffy, her romance with Angel has some pretty grueling consequences. And, if I may cheat a little (I wrote my original essay with no knowledge of the later books), from what I’ve been told about the sequels, Bella becomes even more co-dependant on Edward and even less of an intelligent, brainy beauty that she begins the first film as (as opposed to Buffy, where she became more mature and stronger as the show progressed).

  49. yancyskancy says:

    Scott: I liked Twilight, and don’t really have that much of a problem believing that the smart, semi-loner new chick would fall for the brooding, mysterious gorgeous guy, vampire or no. He may not be Cary Grant, but I don’t think Bella wants charm. That “bad boy” shtick is catnip to certain girls (and women), and Edward can back it up with the whole vampire thing. It’s incredibly romantic to her that he must suppress the strongest part of his nature in order to be with her. That’s primal stuff, and it trumps having common interests.
    I do think it’s funny, however, that the movie tries to imply there’s more to their relationship by adding that montage of the two staying up all night talking, but not letting us hear a word of it. But yeah, it’ll be interesting to see if their relationship becomes more believable in the sequels (I haven’t read the books either).

  50. IOIOIOI says:

    Scott: the books and the movie seem to be two different things. The movie Bella in one movie alone is apparently more self-assured character because she HAS TO BE (According to KV… who knows these )!
    I use exclamations because it needs to be stressed how movie Bella is not book Bella. Which means the next movie will most likely be an even more radical departure, but by that time Pattinson will be Edward. So some people will bitch, but the dude is pretty. Which makes everything better. Oh so I here.

  51. IOIOIOI says:

    There is no excuse for such bad internet penmanship, but I was too busy logging in FOUR FUCKING TIMES to post that dribble. So it sort of got gaffled along the way. Many apologizes and here are the clarifications in case you missed them.
    1) Voynar knows things.
    2) Pattinson’s Edward will possibly be the definitive EDWARD and Stewart will be the definitive BELLA. Thus helping everyone along with the transition from a whacky sequel book to a better sequel movie.

  52. Kim Voynar says:

    Sorry for being incommunicado on this thread up ’til now. Busy week with my entire family involved in a play production, etc. And the stupid Typepad registration thing was pissing me off, too — it tried to tell me I wasn’t authorized to leave a comment on my own blog, even. Stupid technology. Anyhow.
    Scott, your piece was one of the better dissections of the sexual power issues within the film. I responded to it in greater detail in the Voynaristic piece that just went up. There’s a link to the column on my blog, if you care to comment on it.
    Okay, some SPOILERS below this for the later Twilight books, for anyone here who particularly cares about that. Don’t read further if that means you …
    Scott, re what your friends have told you about Bella’s development as a character in the later pieces, I don’t entirely agree with that assessment. It’s true that in New Moon, Bella is largely mired in depression for much of the book, but by the end she pulls her shit together and does some fairly ballsy things in order to prevent Edward from committing suicide. That book is very Jacob-heavy as well, Edward is hardly in it, which could pose a challenge from a scripting and directorial standpoint in making the book into a film; I expect they’ll find a way to bring Edward (in the form of Pattinson onscreen) more into the storyline somehow so as not to isolate the Team Edward fans.
    Eclipse is actually my personal favorite of the Twilight books, as it gets more into the conflict between Edward and Jacob, which I found pretty interesting, and Bella has to definitively choose between a more “normal” human life with Jacob, who is in love with her, or a vampire life with Edward.
    Breaking Dawn is pretty much a complete departure from the previous books, and I was rather lukewarm on it through about the first half of it. I warmed more up to it after Bella finally became a vampire, primarily because there was some interesting stuff going on with regard to the way Bella handles the transition to vampire-hood that I wasn’t really expecting.
    I do have to say, though, that I disagree with the criticism I’ve read generally that Bella is a passive character in the earlier chapters of Breaking Dawn (the pregnancy), and here’s why: I’ve been through five (yes, five) pregnancies. My last pregnancy did not go as planned, and I ended up confined to a hospital bed for six weeks and nearly died of a blood infection. But while I may have been physically passive during that confinement, in that I literally was only allowed out of bed for one 10 minute shower and a 20 minute wheelchair outing daily during that time, internally, the strength it took me to see that pregnancy through is something I could never have imagined myself having until I went through it.
    Having that perspective, I had perhaps a different view than some on Bella during the pregnancy in Breaking Dawn, which nearly killed her up until the birth, and ultimately required Edward “changing” her in order to “save” her life. It takes a powerfully strong woman to go through that much to preserve the life of her child, and when that mama tiger instinct kicks in and you know that, for that point in time, nothing matters to you as much as keeping that baby alive long enough to give it a chance, that is not passivity, it is strength. It takes a strong person to sacrifice yourself, even when you know it’s for a finite time, and I actually liked Bella more as a character throughout Breaking Dawn than in any of the previous Twilight books, although I had some issues with it overall.
    That said, I will be surprised if they ever do make a film of Breaking Dawn, and Stephenie Meyer said at the junket press conference that as of now, there are not plans to do so, for various reasons. Enough Twilight for now, other work today, er, tonight, but I welcome any comments here, or over on the post on my blog linking to the column I put up today.

  53. Blackcloud says:

    I’d guess the number one reason they won’t make a film of Breaking Dawn is that so many fans of the series despise the book. And loathe, revile, and scorn it, too. Maybe the hatred will die down in a few years. Who knows? I’m sure Summit is just glad that revulsion for the last book didn’t poison the well for the first movie.

  54. Kim Voynar says:

    That may very well be part of it, but I expect from Summit’s side, it may be more to do with the difficulty of making a PG-13 film out of Breaking Dawn. An R rating would kill their box office with their key demographic. Interestingly, at the press conf a couple weeks ago, Meyer, when asked to specify why she said there would not be a film of the 4th book, said it had to do with the CGI technology needed to create the character of Bella and Edward’s daughter; essentially, that the ability to render realistic humanoid characters with CGI isn’t there yet.
    Which made me wonder if she’s aware of Benjamin Button — the 20 minutes of Button clips we saw at Telluride looked pretty damn impressive. Then again, BB had a, what, $150 million budget to work with, and Twilight didn’t even get the sparkle effect or some of the makeup looking awesome on its $37 million, so it may really have to do with cost and Summit not wanting to shell that out.

  55. T. Holly says:

    It’s at the Huffington Post, but doesn’t earn a link at the Twilight fan obsessed TOH site, because, what?, they might get offended?
    And I love you like a sister Kim (no we’ve never met), but repeatedly there’s too much personal connection between you and the subject matter. Sure it’s interesting and valid and surveys the other work (absent Dargis), and you pat yourself on the back for predicting major moo at the box office, but Scott’s piece is good because he’s so polite at explaining the problem — kills them with kindness, which you do too, but there’s no problem in your book.

  56. Kim Voynar says:

    T. Holly,
    Sorry, could you clarify what you mean by no problem in my book? No problem with what aspect, specifically?

  57. Blackcloud says:

    Kim, I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to film the fourth book. They have to. It would destroy their credibility to do the first three then stop before the last one. No one could imagine not filming Deathly Hallows. I think the same applies for Breaking Dawn. If they want it to be taken seriously, they have to bring it to the screen. Now, it’s entirely possible that the next one doesn’t do well, and the one after that does even worse, so the last one doesn’t get made because the series’ popularity has eroded so much it’s a losing proposition to do the last one. But that’s not the same as saying from the get go we’re not doing the last one. That’s an admission the books really aren’t that big a deal after all. Talk about cutting yourself off at the knees. You’re either committed or you’re not. They’ll figure something out. They don’t have much choice otherwise.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon