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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady

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The Badagascar sequel launches with a 20% opening day jump. Will this mean a $56 milion 3-day? We’ll see.
Roel Models rolled out remarkably well, really. Better than Nick & Norah’s Infinite Playlist or The Houe Bunny on opening day with what feels like a lot less of a push. The number is also a little higher than Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Baby Mama. which arrived from the same releasing studio, Universal, with more noise and more star power (including the endlessly name checked Judd Apatow). Impressive. I would, perhaps, have a better take on the movie had the studio invoted me to a screening. So if it is as bad as that normally suggests, even more impressive.
The uninspired release of Soul Men joins the junk pile of Weinstein titles that seem like they could have done better.
Saw 5 is still running a little behind Saw 4 and should stop in the mid 50s. If things stay in line, foreign will be about $10 million more than domestic, so over $100 million worldwide sees sure, no matter how bad the films are getting.
Fandango is pushing their agenda – “Twilight accounts for 63% of all ticket sales on Fandango, the nation

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81 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Nick Rogers says:

    So glad to see that “Role Models” will have a good debut showing. And it’s kind of amazing to me that “HSM3” probably won’t make it to $100M domestic. It’s got about one more weekend before “Bolt” and “Twilight” really steal its thunder.

  2. Blackcloud says:

    QoS opening weekend will comfortably outpace Twilight’s, and maybe even its second weekend will as well. Fandango using Twilight to hype itself proves how marginal it is to overall ticket sales.

  3. movieman says:

    “Madagascar 2” and “Role Models” are both better than they needed to be to appease their demographics (kiddies and frat/fanboys respectively).
    If that’s not an encouraging sign, I don’t know what is. And considering what a crapfest 2008 has been so far, any hopeful indicators of a dramatic seachange in the final two months is appreciated.
    You’re so right about “Soul Men” joining the Weinstein slagheap, Dave. It’s like Bob and Harvey forgot everything they knew about marketing (and making) films during the halcyon Miramax era. Their current ineptitude is actually kind of stunning.

  4. EthanG says:

    As a huge fan of “Wet Hot American Summer,” good for Mr. Wain. And this film is getting nearly 75% over at Rotten Tomatoes Dave, so it can’t be that bad.
    “Twilight surely hopes this is meaningless, in that HSM3 will not hit $100 million.”
    Given that both films have very small budgets, and HSM3 will finish with nearly $90 million, I disagree.
    Quietly, “Zack and Miri” is going to make more than “Clerks 2.”
    Quietly, “Changeling” is going to make $30 million despite its reviews, a fantastic result for a period film. Given that Eastwood’s WWII films had a major awards push, this and “Wanted” may confirm that not only is Angelina Jolie the biggest female celebrity in the world…she may be the biggest box office draw as well.
    And very very quietly, “The Secret Life of Bees” is going to bank $32-33 million without ever playing in even 1,800 theatres. Impressive.

  5. EthanG says:

    Also, maybe the “Role Models” result will help get that Wet Hot prequal off the ground.

  6. martin says:

    when I saw ads during election night coverage I knew Universal had some confidence in their product and were working for a solid opening. And good for Seann Scott who’s made a ton of these moderately budgeted comedies that have all tanked, and he finally has a winner.
    As far as budgets, movies like high school musical don’t cost a lot to make but you do need to factor in marketing costs in the US and internationally, which were probably many more times than the cost of the movie. Of course $90 mill. total in the US is a solid number, but based on expectations it was more of a moderate hit instead of a blockbuster.

  7. Wrecktum says:

    The problem with HSM3 (if indeed it is a problem, because this title will make money hand over fist in the long term) is that, which its want-to-see is very high, its will-never-see is equally as high. Disney simply can’t sell the movie past its tween girl fanbase, which puts a lid on total gross.

  8. yancyskancy says:

    Yeah, it really does seem like Role Models came in under the radar and above expectations. I had seen ads, but if there was a hard sell, I missed it. When I saw that wacky Armond White liked it, I was worried. He’s known for championing films that most other people loathe, plus he’s extremely anti-Apatow, and I’ve liked just about every Apatow film. I know that Role Models isn’t an Apatow production, but it features some of his regulars and is clearly being marketed to the same audience. Hope to see it soon, maybe this weekend.

  9. EthanG says:

    Martin, I agree to a point except, like Disney stated about the Montana concert movie after the fact, much of the marketing was internal, aka on the Disney Channel and ABC, through the “Montana” DVD and much of the rest was through ancillary products for the first two films. Therefore, I would guess marketing was actually not much higher than a normal release.
    Consider that of the 20 films to hit at least $90 million this year, only one (Mamma Mia) had a production budget of less than $65 million, and “Mamma Mia’s” was $52 million. High School Musical 3 had a production budget of $11 million. A blockbuster? No, but considering its budget and the fact nearly two-thirds of its gross will come from overseas, among the highest percentage of any high grossing film this year (foreign gross currently sits at 58% with Japan and Australia among markets still to open) and you have one of the most purely profitable films of 2008.

  10. Wrecktum says:

    Remember too that HSM3 ancillaries will be strong for a long, long time.

  11. LexG says:

    I know this will sound like more animation-griping from me, but “Madagascar 2”???? Was the first one even a hit? I remember it existing, and maybe it’s just because I tune out to any kind of animated family stuff, but I don’t remember it being a particular hit in the way that, say, “Ice Age” or “Incredibles” or “Shrek” were.
    I kinda thought it was an underperformer, like “Valiant” or “Monster House” (or whatever that’s called.)
    Again, this seems like I’m being a jerk about this subject, but 20, 25 years ago, did people go to see cartoon movies in such huge numbers? Does it say anything about the infantilization of American adults that MADAGASCAR is what motivates the masses?
    Yeah, I know everyone in this country has a billion stupid kids, but do the parents HAVE to take their kids to this shit? I went to see AWESOME SHIT when I was a kid like Rocky and Star Wars and Caddyshack and The Shining, not CARTOONS. And I don’t know ANYONE I grew up with whose parents wanted to, or even would, take them to see cartoons.
    I also don’t remember there being a new animated feature dropping roughly every 14 days.

  12. christian says:

    Parents will drag their kids to see ANYTHING.

  13. LYT says:

    Looks like “House” is a disaster. Christian horror movies just aren’t an easy sell.

  14. movieman says:

    Speaking of Seann William Scott, has anyone else seen “The Promotion”? Since it bypassed northeastern Ohio entirely–and has been a “very long wait” on my Netflix queue since its September release–I didn’t catch up with it until recently. (Despite the “for sale only” stipulation at the beginning of the dvd, it was available for rental at a local mom-and-pop vid store.)
    This is a terrific movie: smart, funny, beautifully observed, splendidly acted and infinitely wise about the things America’s shrinking middle-class has been forced to endure in order to survive in today’s dog-eat-dog economy.
    “The Promotion” (awful title btw) actually reminded of the films of Alexander Payne (a very good thing), and it provides further proof that the Brothers Wenstein simply don’t have a clue anymore. A few years ago, this would have been given the fall festival treatment and platformed like a legitimate awards contender.
    Considering how abysmal 2008 has been (so far anyway),
    I hesitate calling it “one of the best American movies of the year”….but, y’know, it kind of is.

  15. yancyskancy says:

    Lex: This is clearly a generational thing. Disney has been a big brand in features since like 1937. Most of their classic films were huge earners, in original release and periodic reissue. I’m several years older than you, so many of my earliest movie-going memories are of Disney flicks. But animation did kinda dry up for a while there in the late 60s and didn’t break through again until The Little Mermaid in 1989. In other words, you’re right that new animated features weren’t dropping every 14 days during your formative years. I’m sure that’s a big part of why you don’t “get” this whole thing.
    imdb has Madagascar’s domestic gross at over 193 million, with an additional 238 million worldwide. Budget: 75 mil. So yeah, they did all right.

  16. movieman says:

    Ditto what Lex said.
    While the original “Madagascar” was no great shakes, “Escape 2 Africa” IS marginally better. Glad to see that DW’s beyond-the-call-of-duty efforts paid off. But yeah, parents will pretty much take their kids to any damn thing. And that’s speaking as someone who found “Beverly Hills Chihauhua” surprisingly tolerable.
    (Maybe Raja Gosnell should only work with his “Never Been Kissed” star from now on: “Kissed” and “Chihauhua” are the only halfway decent things he’s ever done.)

  17. chris says:

    “Role Models” is WAY better than it has to be. And I’m surprised about the screening sitch, DP. They screened the heck out of it here. At least three in advance, maybe more.

  18. leahnz says:

    says sheepishly: i’m a parent and i don’t take my boy to just any crap, i’m discerning about the crap we go see! (unless i’m really desperate; enter ‘alvin and the chipmunks’ one stormy day with nothing else on…shudder)

  19. Noah says:

    Movieman, I’m with you on The Promotion and I got that same Alexander Payne vibe that you did. I didn’t think it hit the mark of those Payne films, but it was certainly a really interesting portrait of a blue collar guy trying to make it in the white collar world and the little victories (and defeats) along the way.
    And yeah, I saw Role Models at a screening a few weeks ago so they definitely weren’t hiding anything from the critics, nor should they have; it’s a very funny movie.

  20. MDOC says:

    The fact that LexG stated he saw movies like “The Shining” as a kid instead of cartoons offers some valuable insight into the man.
    I would safely hypothesize that any individual that was in the 6-12 age bracket on May 30th 2003 whose parents decided to take them to see “Wrong Turn” instead of “Finding Nemo”, is currently in jail or a group home.

  21. EthanG says:

    Haha…I saw “The Shining” as a kid at like 12 or 13. “The Shining” and “The Exorcist” my mom rented on condition I watch them with her because I was already a film nut at around that age, and they were considered very influential.

  22. leahnz says:

    i don’t know, i saw all manner of gnarly shit when i was a kid (liberal hippyish mother) and i turned out perfectly normal…
    (some with parental consent, others on the sly…’exorcist’, ‘godfather’, ‘taxi driver’, ‘clockwork orange’, ‘don’t look now’, ‘cuckoo’s nest’, ‘bad company’, ‘wizards’, ‘omen’, ‘jaws’, ‘deer hunter’, ‘deliverance’, ‘halloween’…all by age 10 or so, and all at the cinema on the big screen so that they really seared into my brain)

  23. leahnz says:

    shoot, i forgot to add earlier that i’m downright giddy to be able to take the boy to more grown-up fare now he’s almost 10 (i’m overprotective in comparison to my own upbringing in terms of what the boy is allowed to see); we went to see ‘eagle eye’ the other day and my little guy was so psyched, he thought it was the best thing next to sliced bread (plus he thinks shia walks on water)

  24. To bring a conversation from another thread into this one: Melanie Grifith in Body Double, Something wild, Working Girl and even Paradise proved she could hold her own with the right script and/or director. In fact, she was perfectly cast in Bonfire of the Vanities. It’s too bad DePalma was the wrong director for the job. That movie need an Altman or Lumet or Stone in order to work. The time is right for HBO to give to Simon or Milch or Ellin to turn into a mini-series.
    I saw the teaser for Notorious in fromt of Miracle at St. Anna. I saw the full trailer in from of RocknRolla. I think it could be a hip-hop Ray. Derek Luke looks good as Sean Combs. Anthony Mackie as Tupac is perfect casting. Also, hearing “Juicy” and “Hypnotize” blasting in a THX-certified theater was pretty sweet. It looks as if it could have some of the pop vitality of Hustle & Flow.

  25. leahnz says:

    jimmy, this isn’t meant to be snarky in any way, but why bring melanie here instead of posting your thoughts on her career in the byob thread where they go with the flow? i certainly don’t fancy myself a hall monitor – far from – i’m just wondering

  26. It just seemed as if more traffic was going on in this thread.

  27. Rothchild says:

    Role Models and The Promotion are two of my favorite comedies of 2008. Sean William Scott, I underestimated you.

  28. doug r says:

    Is that a 0% drop for Zack and Miri? Sweet.

  29. movieman says:

    Glad to know that I’m not the only one who digs “The Promotion.” While I don’t think it’s quite up to Alexander Payne standards–the female roles could have used some beefing up; and an extra 15-20 minutes might not have been such a bad idea–it’s a damn fine simulacrum.
    And “Role Models” is the best Apatow-ian comedy since “Superbad:” I actually like it more than any of David Wain’s earlier indie stuff.
    Random notes:
    My parents actually took me to see “The Killing of Sister George,” “Myra Breckinridge,” “Midnight Cowboy,” Tony Newley’s “Heironymous Merkin,” and “Last Summer” when I was still in grade school. Being the precocious tyke I was, I somehow managed to convince them that reading the reviews had emotionally “prepared” me for their x-rated depravity, lol.
    Of course, those movies were a helluva lot more innocent than the type of foul, sadistic crap (“Hostel 2,” “Saw I-V,” etc.) parents routinely allow their wee bairns to see today.
    I’m a huge fan of “8 Women” as well, Noah, but I think Ozon’s masterpieces (to date anyway) are “Under the Sand” and “Time to Leave.” The latter is an almost perfect movie, and Charlotte Rampling’s performance in the former is one of my favorites of the entire decade.
    As for “Nine,” am I the only one who’s the least bit concerned that none of those (mostly) wonderful actors aren’t exactly known for their singing abilities…and that “Nine” (the last time I checked anyway) was a, er, uh, musical?? Or is this the price to pay for living in the post-“Chicago” (the movie) era?
    I still remember how savagely Peter Bogdanovich and his cast of non-professional singers were raked over the coals when “At Long Last Love” opened in 1975. And Cybill, Burt, et al weren’t appreciably worse singers than Zellweger, Gere and Zeta-Jones; or any of the “Nine” cast will most likely be.

  30. bmcintire says:

    When I was a kid, my mom would drop me off at the single-screen theater at the local mall while she did her shopping. It was primarily a Disney-exclusive hall, showing the almost weekly terrible live-action new titles and re-issues from one week to the next: Never a Dull Moment, The Apple Dumpling Gang, Herbie Rides Again, Mary Poppins – crap like that. What has changed now (even in Iowa) is that no sane parent would think for a second to leave a five or six year old unattanded in a theater. Now, you get whole families turning shit like Beverly Hills Chihuhua into a hit, or Jeff’s favorite phenomenon – adults bringing their kids to shit like Saw V or The Transporter 3.

  31. Why are people bringing other topics here?
    It’s strange to see friday-to-friday numbers like HSM3 up 50%, Zach and Miri and Secret life of Bees both at 0% and EagleEye up 5%. I know it’s because of Halloween, but it’s still weird.
    I hated Madagascar so I won’t be seeing the sequel, but there’s another reason to not see it: It replaces a word with a number. Did Jungle 2 Jungle and films of that ilk not teach us anything?
    And in regards to Lex’s question, animated films were not as prevalent 30/20 years ago. There was usually a big Disney movie ever few years and occasionally other studios got in on the act, but that was also a time when parents weren’t as protective and cotton wool warring as they are these days and they would indeed take kids to see more adult-oriented stuff. But now they’re big business so why wouldn’t the studios keep cranking them out?

  32. frankbooth says:

    They didn’t have computers back in the old days, Lex. This meant that animated films had to be drawn entirely by hand. Pretty hard to crank them out at the current rate using traditional techniques. I’m sure that’s a big part of it.
    I wouldn’t completely rule out the infantilization factor, though. There weren’t ten superhero movies a year back in the Seventies, either.

  33. Hallick says:

    “Again, this seems like I’m being a jerk about this subject, but 20, 25 years ago, did people go to see cartoon movies in such huge numbers? Does it say anything about the infantilization of American adults that MADAGASCAR is what motivates the masses?”
    God damnnnnnn Lex, it says zero. If American adults were going in droves ON THEIR CHILDLESS OWN to movies like Madagascar, you’d maybe have a point. But they’re not.
    And comparing today’s “cartoon movies” to those made 20 to 25 years ago is bonkers – almost in a studied way. That world doesn’t exist anymore. In the last quarter century the format’s matured in ways your alter ego on this blog occasionally fails to. Our childhoods didn’t have movies like Akira, Grave of the Fireflies, Ghost in the Shell, Castle In the Sky, Beauty and the Beast, The Iron Giant, Toy Story 1 and 2, South Park: Bigger Longer and Uncut, Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away, Lilo and Stitch, The Incredibles, Shrek, The Triplets of Belleville, Wall-E, Tokyo Godfathers, Persepolis, Waltzing With Bashir, etc. Best as I can remember, I only ever saw Chilly Willy and Woody Woodpecker short subjects in my little town theater.
    The “cartoon movies” just passed you up, son.

  34. a_loco says:

    Um, frank, considering that it takes years for Pixar and Dreamworks to make their movies, I’m gonna go ahead and say its NOT because animated movies are easier to make these days.
    But anyways, Jimmy, considering that probably no one else here gives a shit about hip hop, I’ll respond to your comment: I do think the casting of Notorious is top notch (apart from the unknown playing Biggie, which could go either way). But George Tillman is a pretty journeyman director and from what I understand, both Sean Combs and Biggie’s mother are heavily involved with the project, which leads me to believe it will be generic congratulatory piece of shit. Sure, it might be well made, but I doubt it will break any barriers or present Christopher Wallace as anything but hero.
    Srsly, have you ever seen Mrs. Wallace talk? She makes it seem as though her son wasn’t a fucking gangster to begin with.
    And for any of you who say rappers aren’t really gangsters, this is the Notorious B.I.G. we’re talking about, not Rick Ross.

  35. leahnz says:

    re: the culture of infantilization, animated movies are so much more sophisticated now than back in the days of yore, the humour often works on two levels with both children and adults in mind, so sitting through the things with your kids is bearable and sometimes absolutely wonderful. some of the funniest, most memorable flicks around are from the new wave of animation.
    i sometimes wonder if i’ve been way too overprotective of my child when it comes to what he’s been allowed to watch.
    (btw, nice to see you around, movieman and frankbooth)

  36. leahnz says:

    ‘Of course, those movies were a helluva lot more innocent than the type of foul, sadistic crap (“Hostel 2,” “Saw I-V,” etc.) parents routinely allow their wee bairns to see today.’
    i couldn’t agree more, movieman, i can’t even imagine letting my boy anywhere near that swill

  37. The fact that Tupac Shakur seems to be a major supporting character (and is cast with a real actor) leads me to believe that Notorious will not a generic biopic.
    I don’t quite understand the comment about Diddy’s and Ms. Wallace’s involvement preventing the movie from dealing with the more controversial aspects of the story. I mean, Buddy Holly’s widow, the Cashes, and even Ray Charles were involved in the movies based on their lives. I seem to recall those movies turning out pretty well. Hell, Jake LaMotta signed off on Raging Bull.

  38. jeffmcm says:

    Broken record time: Hostel 2 is better than any Saw movie.

  39. a_loco says:

    Well, Jimmy, Combs and Wallace aren’t just involved with the film, they’re producers. And nothing they have ever done or said has lead me to believe this film will present Biggie as he was “warts and all”. Anytime either of these two talk about Biggie, it’s in near idolic terms.
    Also, Ray and Walk the Line were well-made movies, but they were both pretty generic, and both had better directors than Notorious. I’m guessing it’ll include Biggie’s drug-dealing, but I doubt it’ll go into the more sordid events of his past.
    BTW, I haven’t seen The Buddy Holly Story, so I can’t comment on it.

  40. a_loco says:

    Also, I’m pretty sure the reason Biggie isn’t played by a well known actor is because there isn’t a well known black actor of that age and, uh, girth. I mean, Beanie Segal auditioned for the part, but that was never gonna happen.
    Unless you think the guy that played Fat Albert would make a good Notorious B.I.G.

  41. doug r says:

    Well, Lex, you’re not going to want to see Up or Monsters vs Aliens. Your loss.

  42. frankbooth says:

    Why, thank you, Leah. Did I go somewhere?
    I’m not actually agreeing with Lex, not entirely. Yes, it’s disheartening that droves of people will flock indiscriminately to Over the Hedge or whatever, as opposed to something family-appropriate but more original, like Speed Racer. But I certainly don’t lump all animation together the way Lex does. I like Miyazaki (My Neighbor Totoro and Spirited Away especially), thought Triplets of Belleville was great, find most Pixar enjoyable (and Ratatouille more than that) and even found Kung Fu Panda fun.
    And it’s also true that many of the live-action movies Lex raves about are cruder and more cartoonish than the cartoons. I imagine his real problem is that there’s no chance of seeing tits or splattered brains in a Pixar film.
    By the way, Tekkon Kinkrete is my favorite animated film of recent years, and it seems hardly anyone knows what it is. Found it by accident when we saw the trailer on a rented DVD of Paprika, which I found it far superior to. (The former had some trippy imagery, but finally wound down into the old “is it a dream or isn’t it?” business straight out of an Elm Street sequel.) Anyone seen it? Really unique look and mood, beautiful soundtrack, meandering but ultimately moving story. And I think your boy could watch it, L — it’s about two street kids — though maybe you should preview it first. Not that violent, but sometimes scary, and not lacking in that good old vague favorite “adult themes.”
    So this Notorious thing — who’s Cary Grant and who’s Ingrid?

  43. PanTheFaun says:

    “Quietly, “Changeling” is going to make $30 million despite its reviews, a fantastic result for a period film. Given that Eastwood’s WWII films had a major awards push, this and “Wanted” may confirm that not only is Angelina Jolie the biggest female celebrity in the world…she may be the biggest box office draw as well.”
    I’m sorry, does this statement make sense to ANYONE else? Because I’m not quite following how “Changeling” limping to $30 million proves Angelina Jolie is the biggest female star in the world…

  44. IOIOIOI says:

    1) Awesome shit? Little kids have this thing called THE INTERNET. Different world, but do not hate on Madagascar. It’s a silly fucking movie.
    2) Yes; it does seem odd to name any movie NOTORIOUS, even if it involves Mr. Smalls. Seriously people: THERE IS ONLY ONE RUNNING SCARED AND IT SURE AS FUCK DOES NOT INVOLVE DARK LIGHTS AND A FUCKING HOCKEY RINK!

  45. leahnz says:

    maybe it’s just me, frank. working all the time sucks. (hey, that’s so funny you should mention ‘tekkon k.’, my boy watches it at his friend’s house all the time (are the characters called ‘black’ and ‘white’? hopefully it’s the same tekkon, sounds like it) i’ve seen snippets of it while the boys are watching but i’ve never sat through the entire thing, i’ll have to borrow it and give it a go.
    the animation in ‘spirited away’ is so beautiful, the wee lad and i went twice to see it on the giant screen. and pixar should do a hard-out thriller just for adults, it’s high time. i’d go.

  46. LexG says:

    “THE LAPD SAID IT WAS MY SON.
    (beat)
    IT WAS NOT MY SON.”
    Liked the movie, love Jolie, but GODDAMN is that one stilted line reading and bit of writing, kinda like some Bush song where Gavin Rossdale rhymes a word with THE EXACT SAME WORD in the very next line.

  47. LYT says:

    frankbooth –
    “By the way, Tekkon Kinkrete is my favorite animated film of recent years, and it seems hardly anyone knows what it is.”
    You don’t know the half of it. Last year I called up Sony trying to get a screener for end of year consideration, and the publicists there didn’t even know it was one of theirs. I had to send them a link to their own website for it.

  48. Frankbooth, Tekkonkinkreet was a bit convoluted, but I quite enjoyed it. The art direction alone warrants a viewing.
    Loco, I so hope Notorious is good and considering the time period it appears to be set it could easily be fascinating, although I do think that during the time period the film seems to stretch west side hip hop was far for interesting both in terms of personality and the music itself.

  49. movieman says:

    Bcmintire: While I can appreciate your bitch about the many cretinous Disney live-action movies of our childhood, lumping “Mary Poppins” into the same crap category as “Herbie Rides Again” or “Apple Dumpling Gang” is just plain wrong. (And while “Never a Dull Moment” was pretty, uh, dull, it was certainly less juvenile than, say, “The Boat-Niks.”)
    “MP” was one of my seminal moviegoing experiences as a kid: I still have tremendous affection for it today. More than any other film from my misspent youth, it’s probably the one most responsible for turning me into “Movieman.”
    I can still remember seeing “Mary Poppins” at a venerable old downtown theater on opening weekend and being forced to take turns sitting on the balcony floor because management oversold the house. Sweet dreams are made of these….

  50. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Fandango using Twilight to hype itself proves how marginal it is to overall ticket sales.
    Tell that to Regal Cinemas (largest US theater chain) and Carmike Cinemas. Both link to Fandango for tickets and showtimes.

  51. EthanG says:

    “I’m sorry, does this statement make sense to ANYONE else? Because I’m not quite following how “Changeling” limping to $30 million proves Angelina Jolie is the biggest female star in the world…”
    Could a period film about child abduction with mediocre reviews take in 30 million with anyone else??

  52. Joe Straat says:

    I still need to see Tekkonkinkreet, but Paprika was one of my favorites last year if nothing else for the first 5-10 minutes. Yes, the story doesn’t set any new standards, but the dreamworld itself was such a wonderful canvas of imagination that I got sucked in all the same. And the dazzling WALL-E along with the Dark Knight was one of my favorite experiences in theaters. Hey, I enjoy The last Boy Scout as much as the next football, Bruce Willis action movie loving person, but life needs balance. Too many steroids shrinks the dickie.

  53. Joe Straat says:

    Egads, lots of things wrong with that post from an English perspective. I need to wake up before I post things….

  54. a_loco says:

    Could a period film about child abduction with mediocre reviews take in 30 million with anyone else??
    How bout Will Smith

  55. christian says:

    Lex, for Gawd’s sake. Animation is just a means of expressing ideas in a different visual manner. It’s like complaining about sculptures in an art gallery because you only like paintings.
    You’ve never seen a great cartoon? THE IRON GIANT? AKIRA? YELLOW SUBMARINE? HEAVY METAL?
    THE INCREDIBLES didn’t OWN YOU?
    Did you tap your feet during the anime scene in KILL BILL? You should love anime since they have so much extreme sex and violence. I mean, why am I even debating this with you?

  56. EthanG says:

    “How bout Will Smith”
    I thought we were talking about women…though Will Smith in drag could probably pull it off I guess.

  57. yancyskancy says:

    Yeah, they should retitle “Notorious.” At least add the B.I.G. on there or something. Hope no one ever does a biopic about Neil Bogart’s Casablanca Records.
    I’ll step up to defend “Mary Poppins” as well. It’s one of my earliest movie-going memories (a drive-in in Kentucky). I was the only one of us kids who stayed awake throughout, and it had such an impact on me that the next really windy day found me atop the family car with an umbrella, ready to jump off and fly (I seem to recall gliding a few feet with no problem — good thing I didn’t try the roof of the house). During one of my mom’s visits here in Cali a few years ago, we went to see a sing-along print of it at the El Capitan. Granted, there’s a nostalgia factor for me, but I thought it held up nicely.

  58. frankbooth says:

    “Also, I’m pretty sure the reason Biggie isn’t played by a well known actor is because there isn’t a well known black actor of that age and, uh, girth.”
    Eddie Murphy in a fat suit!
    “THERE IS ONLY ONE RUNNING SCARED AND IT SURE AS FUCK DOES NOT INVOLVE DARK LIGHTS AND A FUCKING HOCKEY RINK!”
    I assume you’re talking about the Hines/Crystal flick. I know I saw that first-run, but I can’t really remember it. Isn’t there a major scene in a big Macy’s-type store with a giant Christmas tree?
    That’s the one, L. Give it a look. It starts out being about street urchins, then goes off into a subplot about evil developers, then this rumpled old Yakuza guy actually becomes one of the more sympathetic characters, there’s a scary chase involving Terminator-like killer robots (at least I think they were robots), and finally a psychedelic 2001 conclusion. It also features the best citiscape in at least a decade.
    “…pixar should do a hard-out thriller just for adults…” I remember talking with a friend about this, how there’s no American equivalent to anime and how there would undoubtedly be a market for it. Maybe they’re afraid there are too many Lexes out there.
    Your fault, Lex!
    LYT – it doesn’t seem to get much respect, does it? I was surprised by how few Google hits came up for it, and by the dearth of comments on IMDB. Again, if I hadn’t seen the trailer, I wouldn’t know about it. Could this have anything to do with the fact that the co-director is American?
    Hmmm, the down-under folks seem to know about TK more than the Yanks. Damn Yankees!
    Yeah Lex, what Christian said. You don’t like those bloody, sexy, Japanese movies? Why the hell not, son?

  59. leahnz says:

    re: will smith, i finally caught ‘i am legend’ on dvd (i know, i’m so 10 seconds ago as the kids say) and not really knowing what to expect, i was caught off guard by a. how moving will is as robert neville, and b. how (–spoiler—) the story is a chronicle of neville’s descent into madness, actually quite sad. better than i expected.
    ditto on poppins. legend.
    tekkon: i’m there, frankbooth
    pixar: you heard it here

  60. Cadavra says:

    “Could a period film about child abduction with mediocre reviews take in 30 million with anyone else??”
    Oh, I think Julia Roberts could get it to 32.

  61. yancyskancy says:

    “Could a period film about child abduction with mediocre reviews take in 30 million with anyone else??”
    “Oh, I think Julia Roberts could get it to 32.”
    Add a few tunes and Miley Cyrus might pull it off. A period teen mommy child abduction musical? 34 mil on curiosity value alone.

  62. movieman says:

    Personally I don’t get how/why “Changeling” has received unfavorable-to-middling reviews.
    I think it’s one of the three best films I’ve seen this year (the others being “Wall-E” and Desplechin’s “Christmas Tale”), and I’m a little amazed at how tepid the general critical response has been.
    For my money, it’s a better film than “L.A. Confidential” which–sorry, gang–cops out in the final act. Russell Crowe should’ve stayed dead and not been allowed to move to Arizona with Kim Basinger to start a kumquat farm (or whatever it was they were supposed to be growing there).

  63. jeffmcm says:

    Movieman, I agree with you, that ending cop-out is probably my biggest problem with that movie.

  64. movieman says:

    Thanks, Jeff. Glad to know that somebody else feels the same way. I’ve been pleading that case (about the cop-out “L.A. Confidential” ending) for eleven years now; mostly on deaf ears.
    In fact, I like showing “L.A.” and “Chinatown” to my students back-to-back as an object lesson on why The New Hollywood was better than…well, anything before or since.
    I’ll take Polanski’s bitter nihilism over Hanson’s smiley face ending any day.

  65. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Personally I don’t get how/why “Changeling” has received unfavorable-to-middling reviews.
    Look to the trailer for the phrase that pays …

  66. jeffmcm says:

    So Chucky, you’re saying critics didn’t even bother to watch the movie – they reviewed the trailer, which contains the Phrase That Killed Your Dad. Right?
    That is ludicrous.

  67. martin says:

    LA Confidential is still a classic in my opinion, but I agree the last 20 minutes are a failure. And more so than Chinatown would have been with the originally scripted ending.

  68. scooterzz says:

    movieman — i watched a screener of wall-e a couple of days ago and that second half is every bit as weak as i remember it…. you probably won’t be alone in calling it one of the years best but i think that’s a reach…just my opinion….

  69. jeffmcm says:

    Scooter, I agree with you again.

  70. I imagine a lot of female actresses could have gotten Changeling to over $30mil if it were a great movie, but at this time of the year to be merely “good” is perhaps not good enough.

  71. leahnz says:

    geeze, jeff, if you agree with scoot so much, why doncha just marry him??!! (oh that’s right, now you can’t…) 😉
    (la confidential isn’t fit to poop in chinatown’s long drop)

  72. leahnz says:

    hey, was that joke in poor taste? it seemed ok at the time, but i wrote it hurriedly and reading it again just now i realise it could be taken the wrong way…no offence intended to either jeff or scoot, both of whom are a-okay in my book, it was intended as a dig at the passage of prop 8, at which i am disgusted.

  73. jeffmcm says:

    Leah, you’re adorable.

  74. leahnz says:

    really? i think i’m a bit of a horse’s ass! (glad you’re not bothered, i meant it affectionately)

  75. frankbooth says:

    What Jeff said.

  76. Cadavra says:

    “LA Confidential is still a classic in my opinion, but I agree the last 20 minutes are a failure.”
    I’m ashamed to admit I never read the novel. Is this the way it ends as well, or was it changed?

  77. christian says:

    I’ve always thought the last few minutes screamed out “studio imposed ending.”

  78. leahnz says:

    thanks jeff & frank, you are kind souls 🙂
    re: LA confidential, the book (brutal crime novel; the film is quite different, a great movie but still not a patch on ‘chinatown’, imho)
    — spoiler —
    the book ends with bud and lynn leaving the police station together in her car – bud’s face in bad shape after being shot – as ed farewells them in a rather touching send-off

  79. leahnz says:

    i think they were headed to arizona, if memory serves

  80. Cadavra says:

    So the movie DOES end the same way as the novel. So what’s the beef?

  81. jeffmcm says:

    My beef wasn’t literary fidelity, just with basic garden-variety lameness.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon