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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Klady

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The Friday Estimate to Sunday Estimate disparity on Madagascar 2 was striking. Looking at history, doing – based on estimates – just 28% of its business on Friday, it isn’t wildly out of proportion. Ice Age 2, which had a $68 million start, did 32% on its opening weekend on Friday. On the other hand, Wall-E, which had an almost identical opening to M2, had 37% of its opening weekend business on Friday. Kung Fu Panda ($60.2m start) had a 34% Friday
My guess is that Badagascar 2 plays younger than some animated movies. So, less Friday and more Saturday and Sunday.
If you are wondering, this is a 25% opening increase from the original, which was also a summer release. Kids clearly want to move it, move it. This opening is the 11th animated film ever to open over $50 million (interestingly, there are no animated openings at all between $48 million and $60 million). Only one film to open in this group has failed to crack $200 million domestic (Ice Age 2) and that film was in spring without the benefit of the long Thanksgiving family weekend looming on the immediate horizon, albeit with Disney

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19 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. martin says:

    63 mill for an early november weekend seems surprisingly strong #. And guys, it’s Miri not Mira, try looking around the web once in awhile, movie title spelling is not hard to find.

  2. yancyskancy says:

    Okay, this is two threads in a row in which you refer to Madagascar 2 at least once as “Badagascar 2.” Snarky mini-review or typo?
    I thought Soul Men might get a little more traction out of Mac and Hayes’s untimely deaths (not that I expected a Ledger-type situation, of course). Maybe that was too much of a bummer for the comedy audience. And the premise probably didn’t resonate for the younger segment of the black audience. I’ve seen some kind, if not effusive, reviews. Maybe it could have some minor legs if allowed to linger a few weeks.

  3. martin says:

    yancy, you don’t really think that’s a typo do you ? (though my first comment would support that). Soul Men just didn’t look that funny. Maybe it had some laughs, but I didn’t find the ads amusing. Best Bernie Mac comedy is Mr. 3000 and I’m still not sure how that wasn’t a bigger hit.

  4. movieman says:

    “Mr. 3000” was OK, but what about “Mr. Baseball”?
    I’ve always thought that was a criminally underrated sports comedy, and nobody knows how to frame wide screen compositions like Fred Schepisi.

  5. yancyskancy says:

    martin: The only reason I thought it might be a typo is because that spelling first popped up in the Friday estimates post, which also included these typos: Roel Models and The Houe Bunny. I don’t think I’ve seen Dave mention whether or not he’s actually seen the film.
    movieman: I agree about Mr. Baseball specifically and Fred “Mr. Widescreen” Schepisi in general.

  6. anghus says:

    i liked Mr. Baseball as well. I watched Mr. 3000 for about 8 minutes and stopped watching. Just didn’t find it that funny. Bernie Mac’s best stuff was on the Bernie Mac show. He and Larry Wilmore crafted a very funny show that took the best of Mac’s humor and made it accessible to a wider audience. I still watch the reruns from time. Funny show. And of course, who could forget his classic portrayal of Dollar Bill in The Player’s Club.

  7. jeffmcm says:

    If it isn’t a typo, I think DP is obliged to explain what he means and why he thinks it’s not only ‘bad’ but also beneath mention.

  8. PanTheFaun says:

    “Mr. Baseball” is awful, and “Mr. 3000” was mediocre.

  9. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Re the next Kevin Smith: … whoever is funding will make sure that the title will not have anything in it to scare off business from women.
    Or a certain theater chain in Utah … or the directory staff at MovieTickets.com and Hollywood.com.

  10. MattM says:

    The references to “Badagascar 2” stem from a nickname that Dave gave the original film–not a typo.

  11. Botner says:

    Role Models was really, really funny. Good to see that I wasn’t the only one that felt that way.

  12. Didn’t the first Madagascar make a similar opening weekend amount, but over four days?

  13. Nick Rogers says:

    I just caught up with several movies on the list today: Rachel Getting Married (brilliant, one of the year’s best), W. (angrier, in a subtle way, than most people have thought) and RocknRolla.
    Guy Ritchie is officially dead. What a boring, protracted bloat that was. No energy, no surprises, nothing. I’m all for Jeremy Piven playing against Ari type, but at least give the man something to do. And Luda “Chris Bridges” Cris should stick to rapping. I feel bad for Ritchie if what precipitated the divorce heated up during the making of this film, but outside of Mark Strong, it was awful.

  14. yancyskancy says:

    MattM: That was my second guess about “Badagascar,” but I didn’t feel like doing the research. Thanks.

  15. doug r says:

    The three of us saw M2 on Saturday at an early afternoon matinee. It was a really young crowd. I thought the story moved better than the first one.
    My wife and I saw Religioulus today at an early afternoon matinee. The theater was about 2/3 full!
    Of course, this was about a week and a half since HBO Canada started, so we’ve been catching up on Real Time.
    Gotta go. Entourage starting.

  16. Nick Rogers says:

    Doug: I also saw “Religulous” today in Indianapolis, where I’d say the house was about half-full.
    Some octogenarian-looking folks strolled in about an hour into the film and after it was over commented: “Oh yeah, that was really funny. A bunch of atomic bombs going off.” I don’t think seeing the first hour would have helped them. Some huge laughs and a heaping helping of ugly truths in that movie.

  17. EthanG says:

    Madagascar 2 is the 4th biggest opening of 2008?
    WTF?!
    Bigger than Chronicles of Narnia, or “Sex and the City” or “Wall-E???!” Don’t understand…

  18. hcat says:

    People love that Fucking lemur

  19. Nick, as I keep telling people who say Ritchie’s done with, just wait until Sherlock Holmes. It’s completely different to everything else he’s done and the post-Madonna time is a period of success, usually.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4