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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady – December 14

Not a lot new to say.
But I will remind again, the Che’ per screen is, in reality, more than double that of any of the other films, as it is a 4.5 hour event, meaning 2 shows a day. It is an interesting inequity that NY is in the massive Ziegfeld and in LA, the film is in a 200 seater at the shiny, new Landmark… which also offered yesterday, a double dip of appearances by Benicio (as well as Laura Bickford, the screenwriter and another actor).
Ironically, the excellent per-screen by Slumdog MIllionaire is closest overall to Rab Ne Bana de Jodi, the actual Indian film in the market.
Really, all the limiteds who are awards trawling can be pleased… some more than others… but basically fine.
I will be accused of writing this because I am not a fan of Gran Torino, but think on this before making it about me…. is there any reason to do a 6-screen release for what is being sold as a wide release movie other than to spin the media? Realistically, you are looking at a movie that would have been no worse than the #3 film in the market this weekend if they were on as many as 1800 screens. So what are they vamping for?

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20 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady – December 14”

  1. Geoff says:

    Wow, what a poorly planned schedule for December on every one’s part!
    In an seven day period, you have Tom Cruise, Will Smith, Adam Sandler, Jim Carrey, and Brad Pitt – are you telling me that ONE of them could not have opened this weekend? Any one of those movies could have cleaned up. Seems like the studios have very short memories – a year ago, this weekend, I Am Legend and Chipmunks opened to between $120 million between the two of them. No way Keanu could have even done half of that.
    And you have a point about Gran Turino….and Slumdog Millionaire and Milk. At least two of those films could have gone wide, this weekend, and done between $8 and $12 million each. Now you have a complete logjam for the next two weeks and most of these films will now underperform, as a result.
    Complete missed opportunities, here. And while we’re at it, have you guys seens next June’s schedule – there’s Will Ferrell, Transformers and NOTHING in between them for three weeks! I have to think something’s going to move in there, looks like the barest June I can remember. Can’t understand why Universal moved Fast & Furious out of there – any inside knowledge to what’s going in for the summer? Is the cupboard that bare from the writer’s strike?

  2. Geoff says:

    I get real into the release date jockying – I have to think that maybe Fox could move the Night at the Museum sequel into mid-June without a problem, as Terminator seems to have cemented that Memorial Day date. Both could do well, but then Fox would not have to worry about losing famlies to Pixar the following weekend.
    Also, Bruno (Sacha Baron Cohen’s next opus) is set for next May – Universal could probably get a bigger opening it for in June.

  3. movieman says:

    I’m kind of surprised that Universal isn’t opening “Fast and Furious 3” over Xmas.
    It seemed like genius counterprogramming to most of the warm, funny, fuzzy December movies.
    And considering the fact that the (perversely) elongated trailer has been running since late summer, you kind of get the sense that the thing must have been finished for awhile.
    I bet it would have done a helluva lot better than “Despereaux” is going to do.

  4. Spacesheik says:

    PUNISHER WARZONE…$7million from 2500 screens..OUCH.
    I really love Ray Stevenson from ROME and was rooting for this R-rated Marvel flick. I guess the behind the scenes recutting, rescoring, etc and bad vibe hurt the film.

  5. Chucky in Jersey says:

    WB is handling “Gran Torino” just like “Million Dollar Baby”: NYC/L.A. in mid-December, bigger cities at Xmas, wide release in January. That way all the bloated self-important movies that are sandbagged with “Academy Award Winner” and “Academy Award Nominee” cancel each other out so Clint comes in and cleans up.
    To movieman: “Fast & Furious” will be a summer release just like its previous models.

  6. jeffmcm says:

    Chucky, Movieman knows that. He wasn’t saying otherwise, merely suggesting it might have been a good idea. As it is, the traditional counterprogramming slot now is held by The Spirit, which will probably underperform.
    Also, here’s my traditional complaint, but:
    “That way all the bloated self-important movies that are sandbagged with ‘Academy Award Winner’ and ‘Academy Award Nominee'”
    Chucky, I wish you would admit that a movie is not necessarily ‘bloated and self-important’ depending on how the marketing team has chosen to advertise it. These are independent qualities.

  7. seymourgrant says:

    Fast & Furious has been moved to April 3rd. I really think Star Trek should have stayed a December release. There really isn’t any big movies coming out and it could have cleaned up.

  8. movieman says:

    I naturaly assumed that the reason Universal wasn’t opening “Fast/Furious” at Xmas–despite the fact that it was clearly ready to hit 3,000 theaters months ago–was because they were superstitious and wanted to adhere to the series’ usual June/summer release pattern.
    It was only after learning that they decided to open early April (hmmm) that the holiday idea popped into my head.
    I still think it would have been brilliant counterprogramming and surely outgrossed the buzz-less “Despereaux” by a country mile. (And I agree with Jeff that “The Spirit” will underperform in this season’s “alternative” programming slot. Too bad; it looks like it might be a cool movie.)

  9. Chucky in Jersey says:

    At least I am not the only one who has doubts about “Doubt”.
    As for “independent qualities”? I have two words for you — “Georgia Rule”.

  10. Bennett says:

    As a big JJ fan and a non-Trekkie, I am more than ready to wait if he needs a few more months to get Star Trek right.
    This season does seem to be full of ho hum releases. I agree that Bedtime Stories will be huge. I would think that it would do National Treasure 2/Night at the Museum numbers…Maybe a new franchise. There is a audience for safe holiday fare..
    I wonder if there is still an audience for Jim Carrey…Hasn’t Yes Men been on the shelf forever? I would think that if they get Dick and Jane numbers they should be happy.
    I wonder if keeping Seven Pounds storyline so close to the vest will hurt the film. But with Will Smith, he could do a remake of Pluto Nash and still make a 100 million.
    Yes, one of the glut of flicks should have opened this weekend. I would have moved up Marley and Me. Counter-programming to Earth Stood Still and avoids Yes Men and Bedtime Stories.
    I am sure that when some of these films fail(I am guessing The Spirit, Valkyrie, Gran Torino and unless it gets a best picture nom Ben Button) we will get an “The Economy is bad…thus the businesss is hurting” Hollywood always gluts up the Summer/Holiday season so there are always less successful movies……
    The only movie that I wish was moved up is Watchmen…not because of a business decision…I am just dying to see it.

  11. Botner says:

    Hmmm…this won’t earn me any street cred, but I would have liked to see ‘Nothing Like the Holidays’ find an audience. Depsite the ridiculously generic title, I thought it was surprisingly good and well-acted for a holiday film.
    It would have been nice to see a well done, mainstream Latino film break out.

  12. Botner says:

    Hmmm…this won’t earn me any street cred, but I would have liked to see ‘Nothing Like the Holidays’ find an audience. Depsite the ridiculously generic title, I thought it was surprisingly good and well-acted for a holiday film.
    It would have been nice to see a well done, mainstream Latino film break out.

  13. jeffmcm says:

    I think that Abrams wanted to go ahead and release Star Trek this month/last month, but if I remember correctly Paramount made the move because some other Summer 2009 tentpole was behind schedule and got moved to Holidays 2009, opening a hole in their schedule.
    Chucky, you are committing an irrational logical fallacy. In a Venn diagram, the circle for ‘bloated self-important Oscar-bait’ and the circle for ‘movies advertising by mentioning Oscar nominees/winners’ do indeed overlap – no argument about that – but they ARE NOT coterminous. There are movies that are bloated Oscar-bait that don’t use this particular marketing strategy, and there are movies that are perfectly good, heartfelt pieces of cinema that do use this tactic.
    I don’t know how to say this more clearly, but your constant harping makes you sound deranged and obsessive.

  14. Hallick says:

    “At least I am not the only one who has doubts about ‘Doubt'”
    You mean the “movie about nuns”? You might not be the only one, but I think you’re the better one in this case. By far. Jesus.

  15. LexG says:


  16. LexG says:


  17. The Big Perm says:

    Punisher wasn’t hurt by bad vibes or bad buzz…it just suffered the same fate as the other Punishers. As in, no one cares. All Punisher movies look like DTV flicks with no reason to watch them. And in this day and age, a vigilante movie is just way too old hat.

  18. Nick Rogers says:

    Looks like “QoS” will be fortunate to limp toward matching the “CR” gross.

  19. gradystiles says:

    Bennett, Fox is the distributor for both Marley & Me and The Day the Earth Stood Still. They’re not going to counter-program their own release.

  20. christian says:

    Limp is what QOS was.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4