The opening salvo of 2009 looked a lot like the last gasp of 2008 with cuddly Marley and Meleading ticket sales with an estimated $24.2 million. Despite the absence of new national releases box office rose 9% from last year’s first weekend.
Initial data pegs domestic revenues for 2008 at $9.79 billion and a slight 1% increase from the prior year. However admissions once again declined. The drop in ticket sales is approximately 6%.
Holdover titles generally experienced declines between 20% and 35% and overall that translated into weekend sales of close to $155 million. That equated to a 25% drop from last weekend. A year agoNational Treasure: Book of Secrets topped the charts with box office of $20.1 million while Junoedged out I Am Legend by $150,000 with a $15.9 million tally.
The final days of the year provided two more Oscar qualifiers — both with Holocaust themes.Defiance, the fact-based tale of Jewish resistance fighters in Poland, grossed a hefty $121,000 from two screens while Good, the tale of a German intellectual coerced into the Nazi party, grossed $9,200 in two theaters.
The glut of late-year award contenders largely held their ground with the exception of The Reader, which added 282 engagements and maintained a good screen average. Revolutionary Road went from three to 38 playdates and posted a $25,530 average. But the sturdiest challenger remainedGran Torino with a $33,450 average as it continued in 84 locations.
Still there’s no clear sense from box office which films will be the biggest beneficiaries of Oscar, Globe, et al largesse. Slumdog Millionaire, minimally expected to be a major presence in high-profile categories, currently has grossed $28.6 million and won’t widen for several weeks, while limited exposure for Frost/Nixon has amassed $6.3 million and Doubt is at $18.6 million.
Regardless, what appeared to be a wide field of prospects for critical kudos has shaken down quite rapidly to a narrow few. That’s emboldened Warners to re-issue The Dark Knight nationally this month, but prospects of a similar strategy for Wall-E will largely turn on whether it receives a best picture nomination from the Academy on January 20.
Waltz with Bashir will undoubtedly receive a commercial boost should it receive the unprecedented hat trick of nomination in foreign-language, animated and documentary categories.
– Leonard Klady
Weekend Estimates – January 2-4, 2009
Title |
Distributor |
Gross (averag |
% chan |
Theate |
Cume |
Marley and Me |
Fox |
24.2 (6,910) |
-33% |
3505 |
106.7 |
Bedtime Stories |
BV |
20.6 (5.580) |
-25% |
3684 |
85.7 |
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button |
Par |
18.2 (6,110) |
-32% |
2988 |
78.8 |
Valkyrie |
MGM |
13.8 (4,980) |
-34% |
2778 |
60.6 |
Yes Man |
WB |
13.7 (3,990) |
-18% |
3434 |
79.3 |
Seven Pounds |
Sony |
10.0 (3,610) |
-24% |
2758 |
60.1 |
The Tale of Despereaux |
Uni |
7.0 (2,260) |
-21% |
3091 |
43.7 |
Doubt |
Miramax |
4.9 (3,820) |
-8% |
1287 |
18.6 |
The Day the Earth Stood Still |
Fox |
4.9 (2,080) |
-37% |
2337 |
74.4 |
Slumdog Millionaire |
Fox Searchlight |
4.6 (7,580) |
8% |
612 |
28.6 |
Twilight |
Summit |
4.5 (2,360) |
-6% |
1888 |
176.7 |
Bolt |
BV |
3.3 (1,900) |
-3% |
1729 |
109.9 |
The Spirit |
Lionsgate |
3.2 (1,280) |
-50% |
2509 |
17.7 |
Four Christmases |
WB |
2.9 (1,240) |
-41% |
2307 |
118.2 |
Gran Torino |
WB |
2.8 (33,450) |
21% |
84 |
9.7 |
Milk |
Focus |
1.8 (5,880) |
3% |
309 |
17.1 |
The Reader |
Weinstein Co. |
1.5 (3,840) |
130%- |
398 |
3.5 |
Frost/Nixon |
Uni |
1.4 (6,990) |
5% |
205 |
6.3 |
Quantum of Solace |
Sony |
1.2 (1,300) |
-17% |
891 |
166.9 |
Australia |
Fox |
1.1 (1,470) |
4% |
765 |
46.7 |
Revolutionary Road |
Par Vantage |
.97 (25,530) |
410% |
38 |
1.4 |
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa |
Par |
.93 (1,310) |
1% |
707 |
176.9 |
The Wrestler |
Fox Searchlight |
.43 (24,110) |
12% |
18 |
1.8 |
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) |
– |
$147.50 |
– |
– |
– |
% Change (Last Year) |
– |
9% |
– |
– |
– |
% Change (Last Week) |
– |
-25% |
– |
– |
– |
Also debuting/expanding |
Ghajini |
Adlabs |
.24 (9,280) |
-69% |
83 |
2.1 |
Defiance |
Par Vantage |
.12 (60,500) |
– |
2 |
0 |
Last Chance Harvey |
Overture |
.11 (17,670) |
9% |
6 |
0.35 |
Waltz with Bashir |
Sony Classics |
75,300 (6,840) |
51% |
11 |
0.18 |
Good |
Thinkfilm |
9,200 (4,600) |
– |
2 |
0.01 |
Domestic Market Share – To December 28, 2008
Distributor (releases) |
Gross |
Mrkt Share |
Warner Bros. (29) |
1753.6 |
18.30% |
Paramount (17) |
1563.7 |
16.40% |
Sony (26) |
1268.8 |
13.30% |
Universal (22) |
1107.9 |
11.60% |
Buena Vista (18) |
990.3 |
10.40% |
Fox (24) |
987.9 |
10.30% |
Lions Gate (21) |
436.8 |
4.60% |
Summit (5) |
222.9 |
2.30% |
Fox Searchlight (9) |
211.7 |
2.20% |
MGM (17) |
148.9 |
1.60% |
Focus (7) |
138.8 |
1.40% |
Overture (8) |
102.9 |
1.10% |
Paramount Vantage (12) |
87.9 |
0.90% |
Miramax (10) |
78.3 |
0.80% |
Picturehouse (7) |
63.3 |
0.70% |
New Line (4) |
61.8 |
0.60% |
Other * (326) |
335.8 |
3.50% |
* none greater than 0.5% |
9561.3 |
100.00% |
Top Domestic Grossers – To December 28, 2008
Title |
Distributor |
Gross |
The Dark Knight |
WB |
530,896,852 |
Iron Man |
Par |
318,338,993 |
Indiana Jones & Kingdom of th |
Par |
317,023,851 |
Hancock |
Sony |
229,431,675 |
Wall-E |
BV |
223,790,234 |
Kung Fu Panda |
Par |
215,915,512 |
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa |
Par |
174,862,381 |
Twilight |
Summit |
167,325,198 |
Quantum of Solace |
Sony |
164,302,659 |
Horton Hears a Who |
Fox |
154,529,439 |
Sex and the City |
WB |
152,647,258 |
Mamma Mia! |
Uni |
144,195,815 |
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian |
BV |
141,682,713 |
The Incredible Hulk |
Uni |
134,617,678 |
Wanted |
Uni |
134,512,024 |
Get Smart |
WB |
130,335,095 |
Juno * |
Fox Searchlight |
115,568,583 |
Four Chrismases |
WB |
111,588,896 |
Tropic Thunder |
Par |
110,562,193 |
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dra |
Uni |
103,183,080 |
Bolt |
BV |
102,423,519 |
Journey to the Center of the Earth |
WB |
101,704,370 |
Step Brothers |
Sony |
101,294,165 |
Eagle Eye |
Par |
101,111,837 |
You Don’t Mess with the Zohan |
Sony |
100,112,110 |
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