Weekend Estimates by Klady

11:55a corrected chart for cut off figures
Not too much to add.
The Ben Button Friday cume was off, so that’s why that number doesn’t match the Friday chart that was posted yesterday.
It looks like this year’s December films will match 2001 and 2003’s record for 4 films released that month cracking $100 million before Oscar nods. On the other hand, it will be the first year since 1999 that there will not be a single $200 million+ film coming out of December.

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17 Comments »

17 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

1. Roman says:

   January 11, 2009 at 11:21 am

   Does this mean, Gran Torino 2: Grumpier Old Man will hit the screens summer ’09?
   In all seriousness, this should certainly solidify the Clint’s Oscar chances.
2. The Pope says:

   January 11, 2009 at 12:30 pm

   David Poland has wondered about the wisdom of waiting to go wide with Gran Torino. But what puzzles me is the decision the platform release of Defiance. That is much more puzzling. Is there any single person involved in that film who, as a box-office draw, gone that route before. At least with Clint there is anticipation, reputation, adulation. Defiance has… indifference.
3. EthanG says:

   January 11, 2009 at 12:36 pm

   Don’t be surprised if the figures for “Bride Wars” and “The Unborn” are flipped tomorrow. Looks like this could be an incredibly strong year for horror like 2006, after a 3 month total lull in the marketplace…
   Again the weaker than expected internal multiplier for “BW” shows that the reaction for this film is not going to spread it out like “27 Dresses…”
   Agreed The Pope..also wondering about the slow rollout for “The Wrestler.”
4. martin says:

   January 11, 2009 at 12:41 pm

   The Unborn number seems particularly strong, considering it’s only on 2,300 screens. Really, a stronger opening than Bride Wars. I’d attribute it to some strong element in the marketing, but honestly I think it’s just a lack of product recently for the horror crowd. I think Goyer is more talented than he sometimes gets credit for, so good to see him finally get a win.
   As far as $200 mill december movies, I still think Marley and Me has an outside shot. It’s the kind of movie that could play into early March. And am I the only one that thinks Day the Earth Stood Still with ~$80 domestic and $130 foreign is a solid hit? A possible $230-250 worldwide seems pretty good to me, if the $80ish budget is correct.
5. Roman says:

   January 11, 2009 at 12:46 pm

   “Agreed The Pope..also wondering about the slow rollout for “The Wrestler.”
   The answer is obvious. The movie had a strong enough buzz to make a killing in limited release. They are waiting for Oscar nominations, to ride the Mickey Rourke wave all the way to a successful expansion.
   As for Defiace, it has a lot more going for it than you think, and since 2 theaters hardly make an impact, I do think that the movie has a shot at a decent gross during a less overloaded period.
6. martin says:

   January 11, 2009 at 12:56 pm

   I think that treating The Wrestling like an arthouse pic, which is basically what they’ve been doing, is detrimental to its box office. I think if they did a typical $25 mill 3 week marketing campaign and then went into 2500 theaters, they’d get a 20 mill + opening weekend. The longer they keep it in this box as a smaller picture, the worst it’s going to be in the long run.
7. brack says:

   January 11, 2009 at 1:03 pm

   “Looks like this could be an incredibly strong year for horror like 2006, after a 3 month total lull in the marketplace…”
   My Bloody Valentine 3-D should open at #1 this coming weekend. It’s probably total crap, but the ads for this are fairly clever with the whole “3-D: angle.
8. Rothchild says:

   January 11, 2009 at 1:21 pm

   My Bloody Valentine is very good.
9. EthanG says:

   January 11, 2009 at 1:30 pm

   A killing in limited release? Slumdog Millionaire and Milk have made a killing in limited release. I think The Wrestler, in comparison, has been held much too closely. What happens if Sean Penn wins the Globe? There just isn’t much theatre count space out there right now, given the explosive box office at the moment.
   That is really a lot to bank on. I understand the concept of a slow roll, but 60 theatres in its 4th week is ridiculous and possible suicidal BO
10. Chucky in Jersey says:

    January 11, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    No sequel for “Gran Torino” — Clint has said this is his final role as an actor.
    “Defiance” doesn’t go mainstream until this Friday. Par had a TV spot in the Eagles-Giants playoff game to promote the national release.
    Why the sizable average on “The Unborn”? Universal sold it by name-checking the most recent Batman movie. That serves the fanboys and geeks in one shot.
11. Roman says:

    January 11, 2009 at 1:56 pm

    “A killing in limited release? Slumdog Millionaire and Milk have made a killing in limited release.”
    I stand by my comment, on its own The Wrestler is doing very well and it’s per screen averages are excellent (let’s not forger the difference in the number of screens here), especially considering Aronofsky’s recent box office track record. It’s not Slumdog Millionaire or Milk in the sense that it doesn’t have as much precursor support but it can rely on the momentum associated with the Oscar Nods (a safe gamble as far I’m concerned) to boost it’s number of screens when the time is right. And I completely disagree with a following statement:
    “The longer they keep it in this box as a smaller picture, the worst it’s going to be in the long run.”
    The Wrestler is already making money and it will have a very successful expansion. The flame isn’t in danger of going out. With the word of mouth this strong they can afford to wait.
    “think if they did a typical $25 mill 3 week marketing campaign and then went into 2500 theaters, they’d get a 20 mill + opening weekend.”
    And I think that the chose a much safer (not to mention cheap) means to the similar end.
12. Roman says:

    January 11, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    “No sequel for “Gran Torino” — Clint has said this is his final role as an actor.”
    Ever heard of sarcasm 😉 ?
13. The Big Perm says:

    January 11, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    Chucky, The Unborn had a lot more than geeks and fanboys wanting to see it. If anything, I think Giyer gets a lot of fanbiy heat since no one thinks he really had that much final say in the Batman scripts, and his big geek film (Blade 3) was a piece of garbage.
14. Stella's Boy says:

    January 11, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    According to Boxofficeguru, 75% of The Unborn’s opening weekend crowd was 24 and under, and 55% were female. It’s also hardly unusual for a horror flick to open well in January.
15. jeffmcm says:

    January 11, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    Like Cloverfield a year ago.
    Chucky, I thought you hated name-checking and believed that any movie that used it was doomed to box-office failure?
    Another reason for The Unborn’s success this weekend was pent-up demand within that audience group – The Spirit didn’t really set the fanboy market on fire.
16. KamikazeCamelV2.0 says:

    January 11, 2009 at 6:54 pm

    I’d argue that Milk‘s gross is actually about $20mil below what it should be at this stage. I get that they’re waiting for the Oscar nominations it’s sure to get, but that it’s gross so far is below $20m and it’s been out since November just isn’t right.
    Valkyrie has overtaken Seven Pounds despite being out for a week less. Hmmm.
17. Joe Leydon says:

    January 11, 2009 at 8:54 pm

    I wonder if Valkyrie will wind up overtaking The Day the Earth Stood Still as well?