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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady – Trek Treds Where Angels Can't Quite

The studios spins/makes reasonable arguments…
“Angels & Demons delivered at the high end of the studio’s expectations…
$104.3 m overseas from 96 countries where the adult thriller debuted. Worldwide A&D took in $152.3 million.
We couldn’t be more pleased with the film’s performance.
Neither the filmmakers nor the studio expected we would replicate the kinds of numbers we saw on The DaVinci Code. That film was based on a true cultural sensation that fueled sales of more than 80 million books.
Angels & Demons is based on a novel that sold less than half as many copies as DaVinci and its debut is a true success in its own right. It is the biggest international opening of a film since Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Opening weekend demographics for Angels & Demons shows the audience was slightly more female than male (52% F/48% M) and the age break down was evenly split 50% under 30 and 50% over 30.”

I do think they could be more pleased with the film’s domestic performance… but I also think they don’t find this drop off of DaVinci shocking and are surely thrilled by the international success so far. As I wrote yesterday, $450 million worldwide, which $152m ww this weekend suggests is completely doable, would put the film in the high end of this summer movie group… likely more than Trek or Wolfie or anything other than what looks to be the Top 3 (T4/Trans2/Potter6).
But $50m or $60m at home would have still felt and looked a lot better.
Our Trek estimate is a little below some of the others, but either way, a nice hold, as any opener over $50 million dropping less than 50% is a good word-of-mouth achievement these days. $225m domestic is looking possible.
Next weekend, the bloodbath… two franchises that have not had mega-openings in their histories ($44, for T3 and Night 1 was $30m)… but each of which has very strong marketing, both to their niches and to leak-over for both. Both films are set up for brickbats if they don’t open to at least $50 million each, given expectations these days. But both also has the potential to shock with a much bigger number.
The closest piece of history for a weekend like this that I can find right now is Sandler’s version of The Longest Yard vs Madagascar over Memorial Day Weekend 2005. Both films ended up doing $47 million for 3 and Madagascar did 2.4 million more than Yard over 4 days with $61 million. The big difference was that the films had to face Darth Wars sucking more out of the box office in its second weekend than either of the newcomers with just over $70 million for the 4 day. Neither of the holdovers topping this weekend’s chart looks to be anywhere over $30m for next weekend.
So… it would be no real shock if next weekend’s duo delivered a near-tie with each film opening to more than $70 million… or if Terminator Salvation, which has a wider, if less committed base of interest, opened closer to or even over $100 million while Museum still did over $50m. Both studios will surely spend the next few days lowering expectations.
The top historical 1-2 for Memorial Day was 2007 with Pirates 3 and Shrek 3 pulling in $168 million between them over 3… and $206m over 4.

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46 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady – Trek Treds Where Angels Can't Quite”

  1. IOIOIOI says:

    Hold on. We are getting the call now. Oh it’s offical. Angels and Demons loses 12 million dollars due to Sudanese investments! DA WINNAH and still champion… STAR TREK!
    That will teach you to use Sudanese investments… Ron Howard.
    Silliness aside, this weekend has become the Caspian weekend. Does anyone know what movie is opening in this slot next year?

  2. the keoki says:

    two things….
    Klady is using the thursday Star Trek number for his percentage drop. The drop should be 42% not 47.
    and Nottingham or Robin Hood or whatever Ridley Scott decides to call it, will be in the Caspien slot. Seems ridiculous that Universal will keep it there right?

  3. Crow T Robot says:

    Any movie — even a potboiler as silly as A&D — that casts “Filepe” from Three’s Company as a Cardinal and gives the gifted Nikolaj Lie Kaas his first American role, deserves a tip if my Robot cap.
    Methinks the Danish actor would be a smart choice for Marvel’s Thor.

  4. the keoki says:

    but A&D’s worldwide numbers are ridiculous. I wonder if they’ll hold? Dave, you have any idea?

  5. the keoki says:

    they have their Thor…. it’s all over the interweb. it’s Kirk’s dad… and he seems tall enough.

  6. the keoki says:

    they have their Thor…. it’s all over the interweb. it’s Kirk’s dad… and he seems tall enough.

  7. the keoki says:

    they have their Thor…. it’s all over the interweb. it’s Kirk’s dad… and he seems tall enough.

  8. the keoki says:

    really really sorry about the triple post!

  9. IOIOIOI says:

    Keoki: they do need to move Nottingham out of that spot. That spot is cursed. Seriously, it’s bad news.
    The casting of Thor makes a lot of sense. Hemsworth is tall enough, has the gravitas, and will tower of Stark. Which will make Avengers worth watching for that alone. Now if they can cast another Australian as Cap. That will be cool.

  10. the keoki says:

    looking at next summer, the only sure things look like IM2 and Toy Story 3. Other than that it’s quite the hodgepodge.

  11. David Poland says:

    The notion of the weekend before Memorial Day being “The Caspian slot” is silly and historically inaccurate. Slots are, as they have always been, simply opportunities, for better or worse.
    Before last summer, this “slot” opened (in order of year) Shrek 3, DaVinci, and Episode 3.
    Historically, this became THE money slot as first weekend titles were softer and going a week before Memorial Day allowed a hit to accelerate into a 4-day weekend. 2 Star Wars, 2 Shreks, and Bruce Almighty all did it this decade.
    That said, “The Caspian of May” is a reasonable concept… which is to say, a film hammocked between two bigger films that seems destined to underperform.
    Georgia Rule, Poseidon, Kicking & Screaming, Troy…
    Last summer, it was Speed Racer/Happens in Vegas and then Caspian lulling between big openers.
    I think the idea is that you don’t want to be the hard-to-market film in the middle of giants. In a way, Georgia Rule and K&S, and What Happens don’t really fit, since they were smaller films being counterprogrammed.
    And I would argue, again, that A&D had nowhere better to go. If they get decent word-of-mouth, they can still benefit from the 4-day weekend coming… the film is strong alt programming for adults vs Terminator and Museum.
    There is no bad spot. But Nottingham has the smell of a movie that will underperform as a 4-quadrant film… much more a Cinderella Man, because it feels like Crowe is over the young stud hill.
    Kingdom of Heaven opened to $16m… in the opening slot. Star Trek opened this summer in the 2nd weekend slot that Nottingham is in. From here, it looks like a $30m – $40m opening, tops, for Nottingham… and if they want more or want more room for legs (total domestic of more than $140m max), they should move the movie on that basis.

  12. the keoki says:

    it’s not necessarily the second weekend May, it’s just the weekend after some gigantoid super hit comes out. we should call it it “the Caspien effect” but you’re right as far never knowing when you’ll run up against some zeigeisty type flick. wasn’t Angels supposed to come out last Dec but the writer’s strike made that a no go. once again though, Dave has a point…. maybe they can hang out for the next few weekends as adult counter programming. “Hey old people come see Tom and the Jedi who would be Pope!”

  13. Joe Leydon says:

    The Lakers lead Houston by 20 at half-time. This isn’t looking good.

  14. Blackcloud says:

    Hey, Joe, at least it ain’t 25 points which it would have been if the Rockets hadn’t hit those last two buckets. Seriously, though, both teams suck; I mean, what a bunch of homers.

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    Well, it doesn’t look like either team brought its A-game into the house. Trouble is, Houston appears to be playing its C-minus game.

  16. Blackcloud says:

    At least it would be watchable if the signal didn’t keep going out every minute or two. Not sure if that’s my cable provider or ABC, but it’s sure annoying.

  17. the keoki says:

    Looks good for David Stern and his dream of a Kobe V. LeBron final!!

  18. Blackcloud says:

    Joe, I gotta say, even though the score’s closer, this is a much more pathetic performance by the Rockets than the one they disgraced us with in game 5.

  19. leahnz says:

    i mentioned in the other box office thread yesterday: chicks dig trek!
    just like ‘iron man’ before it, it’s the girls who’ll make ‘trek’ a hit (i say, never underestimate the buying power of girls when the combination of fun and good-looking men is afoot)

  20. the keoki says:

    she’s right. if you can get chicks to go on their own, then you know it’s crossover!!

  21. IOIOIOI says:

    Joe: it’s okay. The Rockets need to keep the nucleus, and they can go places. It’s just not their year.
    Keoki: Stern can have the heartless final if he wants, but I have a feeling the Nuggets are going to make Carmelo another athlete who has won a gold medal, an NCAA championship, and an NBA championship. This year will be dubbed… THE REVENGE OF CARMELO!
    Leah: yep.

  22. Joe Leydon says:

    Well, considering all the injuries… Nah, sorry, it’s no consolation to know the Rockets went much further than they had any right to. In a way this hurts even more than Tuesday’s ass-kicking. Especially when the Lakers fans started singing “Nah-nah, nah-nah…” At least we avoided hitting a new low in a play-off game score.

  23. Dellamorte says:

    I would argue second weekend of May films are in a bad position because they don’t get the first film of summer jump (which has worked since Mummy outside of Kingdom of Heaven), and they don’t get their second weekend during a holiday, which has worked well for other films in terms of having a less precipitous fall. And the disadvantage is tactical, because regardless of how wide, after your second weekend, a theater is going to start taking out multiple prints, which means the locations won’t change, but showtimes will. To wit, Arclight currently has four screens of Trek, I’m sure that they will lose at least one of those this weekend, if not two, considering they seem to have both T4 and Night at the Museum 2.

  24. steamfreshmeals says:

    Nice to see Star Trek pass Paul Blart Mall Cop…
    Nice to see Brother Bloom spelled Blum in your chart (and also fail at the box office)…
    Dreamworks will not stop until The Soloist hits $30M DBO…
    Summit will not stop until Next Day Air hits $10M DBO…
    Nice job on Obsessed by Screen Gems…
    Great hold and international result on Star Trek, right with Wolverine with one less week…
    Love to see Rothman/Gianopoulos/Wolverine vs. Grey/Lesher/Kirk…fair fight? each team has many talents, might fail drug testing, and the fidelity test…
    When you support gay marriage, shouldnt you leave your beard…I mean wife…and just be yourself?

  25. Deallamorte –
    A year ago, I was sure that Trek would flop because of it’s second weekend of summer slot, which historically either had outright bombs (Speed Racer, Posideon) or mid-budget counter programming (The Horse Whisperer, Monster In Law). Until last weekend, only Troy had even opened at number one in that slot between 1995 (Die Hard 3) and 2009 (Star Trek). Paramount took a major gamble on the slot, but it paid off, because word of mouth will give it another solid weekend bouncing off the holiday.

  26. a_loco says:

    Are you saying that everyone that supports gay marriage is gay?

  27. IOIOIOI says:

    Tilda Swinton has a nice looking lady. If that’s what steamy is going on about.

  28. Dellamorte says:

    Scott, I agree, Trek shows that you can make money anywhere if the audience is in, but – as I said – I’m sure if you look at the showtimes come Friday, there will likely be less. And just as the debate of Leak vs. quality can be suggested on Wolverine, Trek will take a hit this upcoming weekend if only because the availability will be diminished – if only marginally. But losing fourth and third prints does hurt, even if it’s not reflected in per screen averages, because they tend to go by location not actual screen count. On top of the film facing direct competition. If Trek can go the three day with a 30% loss, it’s still at less than $30 for the weekend, and then post Memorial day, there will be a significant drop. So if Mem is the last hurrah, it should get past $200, but after that it’ll be steady droppings.
    Arguing release date changes, etc. is like second guessing after a car crash, but if the film had come out in December with no real competition, or was able to get a hot summer slot, I don’t think $300 would be the question that it is now.

  29. Hallick says:

    “When you support gay marriage, shouldnt you leave your beard…I mean wife…and just be yourself?”
    If you’re supporting it as an option and not a mandate, then no. Which isn’t a real problem since there are already several reasons somebody should be honest with their beard in the first place.

  30. How did we get to discussing beards, exactly?
    The good thing that came out of a disappointing debut for Angels and Demons is that there were some seriously low week-to-week falls. According to Mojo, no film in the top ten dropped more than 44.5% and that’s Next Air Day. Monsters vs Aliens will fall just short of $200m with Night at the Museum sucking up every last childrens $.
    Nobody seems to have mentioned that Earth has become the third highest grossing doco ever.
    Amazing that Obsessed is still in the top five.

  31. Joe Leydon says:

    Ghosts of Girlfriends Past is holding a bit better than I expected. Indeed, I assume that, once foreign and homevid kick in, it will turn a profit. Obviously, the studio was hoping for more than just “profitable.” But I wonder whether some folks (like the chronic Matthew McConaughey haters) jumped the gun when they branded it as a commercial “failure.”

  32. It wouldn’t be going so well if there was anything else that even remotely targeted that same demographic. Alas…

  33. LexG says:

    HOLY SHIT, did any of you guys actually SEE Angels and Demons????????
    Who are these people claiming it’s somehow better than Da Vinci??? Far as I recall, Da Vinci’s biggest sins were being boring, pedestrian and lame. With A&D you can add EXCRUCIATING and AGGRESSIVELY INANE to that list.
    All I know is, when a principle character commandeers a FAKE-ASS CGI HELICOPTER, FLIES IT into what must be OUTER SPACE, and sets of some CELESTIAL HEAVENLY LIGHTSHOW only to PARACHUTE BACK DOWN FROM THE HEAVENS (to rousing applause from the Vatican City masses) in the worst fucking CGI since Escape From L.A.? That was the single most embarrassing moment in 2009 cinema so far.
    Though credit where due, that bit of insanity at least WOKE ME UP…. The middle 45 minutes here is SO BORING and DULL TO LOOK AT — underlit, dreary, murky, without A SINGLE INTERESTING IMAGE or SHOT — the movie literally lulled me to near-sleep.
    The premise and Rube Goldberg devices are at least pulpier than the original, but couldn’t ANY Lionsgate hack have milked more suspense and excitement out of those Hanks-rescue setpieces than Howard does here?

  34. IOIOIOI says:

    I hate fucking CGI helicopters. Seriously, I just fucking hate them. They are the worst.

  35. LYT says:

    I just wanted Nic Cage from National Treasure to show up and give Hanks a beatdown.
    Fuck Alien versus Predator. Cage versus Hanks for the Treasure Hunt would rule.

  36. doug r says:

    CGI choppers are lame. What, you can’t afford $500 an hour for like 2 hours? How about a forced perspective model or cloning the one chopper you rented?
    Did Star Trek make more money than A&D on Saturday?

  37. doug r says:

    What a lame weekend around here. No Next Day Air, Crank 2 left the $4 theater on Thursday, and ads for Night 2, Terminator 4.0, The Hangover, Drag Me to Hell and Land of the Lost all over TV.
    Having T4 and Night2 open a day apart? C’mon, someone could open opposite A&D.

  38. Oh, but LexG, you just named the various reasons why it’s kinda awesome. It’s the most willfully stupid tentpole movie I’ve seen in a long time.
    The entire investigative process is out of the 60s Batman show, especially that great opening scene from the 1966 movie (“It happened at sea. Sea… C! C for Catwoman!”).
    And that helicopter moment and the resulting crash landing… it might just become the best YouTube moment since Nicolas Cage put on a bear suit and punched a lady in the face.
    The Da Vinci Code was bloody boring (so dull the con of man), but at least this one was entertainingly inane (so dumb the con of man).

  39. Joe Straat says:

    I had fun watching A&D, which surprised me considering how bored out of my mind I was with Da Vinci. Da Vinci had absolutely had no pulse, it wasted every star it had except for Sir Ian (Especially Hank. Why hire Hanks to play a dullard? And hey, why bring up the character’s phobia if you’re not to going to use it?), the action was crap, and Hans Zimmer was in full Batman Begins “banging on a bunch of percussion” mode (Love Batman Begins. The score was just “meh”).
    A&D was an entertaining little thrill ride, sometimes for the right reasons, sometimes for the wrong reasons. It’s ludicrous, but I’m not going to be lectured in enjoying things with ridiculous plots by Abrams’ Star Trek fans. Did everyone forget the Jon Peters-esque moment where Kirk squares off against a giant lobster creature? I can just imagine the conversation if Peters had produced this:
    “Now, J.J., when he goes to this planet, I want Kirk to fight a giant lobster.”
    “Why does he fight a giant lobster?”
    “Do you KNOW about the lobster? It’s the deadliest predator of the crustacean world…..”
    And Kirk doesn’t even prove his resourcefulness and skill by beating the damn thing, so it’s a complete waste of time.
    Don’t get me wrong, I liked Star Trek, but people declaring it the greatest opera of Austria need to step back a bit (Amadeus reference for those scratching their heads).
    A&D has good pacing, a bit of a personality, some confident editing and direction even at its most ridiculous, and the Zimmer score’s one of his best. It was fun regardless of bad CGI at its climax and the ending where they have to pull that ONE LAST THING that changes the behavior of certain characters on a dime and opens up a floodgate of plotholes. Maybe it’s a guilty pleasure, but at least it’s a pleasure instead of the The Da Vinci Code, where it feels like I’m flogging myself with a salt-encrusted whip by watching it.

  40. IOIOIOI says:

    You like A$D, but dislike Star Trek? Really? Really Joe? Really? Uh…

  41. leahnz says:

    beauty’s in the eye of the beholder, io! if everyone had the exact same taste for everything, it would be a boring old world, wouldn’t it?

  42. Hopscotch says:

    The actual numbers for the weekend came in.
    A&D – 46.2
    Star Trek – 43.
    Close one. A&D doesn’t look as strong. Star Trek is in a few hundred more theaters, but still. I haven’t seen it yet. I enjoyed Star Trek, it’s light fun.

  43. doug r says:

    Star Trek beats A&D on Saturday and Sunday.

  44. Chucky in Jersey says:

    doug@701: You must live in a lily-white part of the country if “Next Day Air” ain’t playing.
    Also, T4 got moved up one day to avoid the “Night at the Museum” sequel.

  45. Joe Straat says:

    IO, I said I LIKED Star Trek. Helps if you read the whole thing. Despite new casting, they maintain the character chemistry of the original amazingly well, and it’s a well-oiled machine, albeit one with a few unnecessary parts (The scene where Scotty’s trapped in the tubes is completely superfluous, and I’ve already mentioned the lobster). I’m just not masturbating over its greatness. It feels like Star Trek as written by a Robert McKee student. It does what it needs to be to be successful, not great.

  46. The Big Perm says:

    Um, Joe…you didn’t say Star Trek was PERFECT in EVERY WAY, so that means you hated it. In IO Land.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4