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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady – Box Office of The Fallen

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What can one say about the Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opening? It’s a huge sequel number. But keeping it in perspective, only Spider-Man, Iron Man and Harry Potter had the first film in their franchises open stronger. So, this number shouldn’t be that shocking.
This film is about $20 million ahead of the first at the end of the first Friday. Friday was about 50% higher than the first Friday last time, but last time, the film rolled out a day earlier in the opening week because of the placement of the 4th of July holiday. So, for instance, the end of business Wednesday was behind the last film’s end of business Wed by $5 million or so. But that also included one more business day. On the other hand, history shows us that the end of the first weekend tends to repeat historic norms, no matter whether it was a 3-day, 5-day, or 6-day launch. Thus it makes some sense that the first weekend day had a big bump.
It is possible that Sat/Sun will also be up 50% a day from the first film, which would make for a $199 million 5-day. On the other hand, it is possible that those two days will be up just 30% from the last time, given a much harsher word-of-mouth on the film, leading to a $189m 5-day. It could be “worse.” But in this case, the worst reasonable estimate for the rest of the weekend still has this as the 2nd biggest first 5 days of all time. It would also be #2 if you counted it as a 6-day opening.
Of course, the story of this year at the box office is not only the ongoing march to bigger openings, but to record lows in multiples. So what the end game of Tr2 is remains an unknown. $300 million seems like a cakewalk. But this is the year that Wolverine did about 53% of its domestic box office in its first 5 days, which looks like it will become a new record for post-opening futility. But Fast & Furious and Watchmen also ended up in a similar position.
Even if Tr2 ended up breaking X3’s unhappy record of the opening 5 days being 55.5% of total domestic gross and the opening 5 was 60% of the total, $300 million is still the result. And it may well do better than that.
But comparisons to The Dark Knight in any kind of perspective are specious. TDK did $203 million in five days starting on a Friday with no holiday weekend involved… so days 4 and 5 of the record opening were weekdays tagged onto a $158 million 3 day. If Tr2 ends up doing $20m-plus on any weekday in the upcoming M-Th week, I will willingly acknowledge that I was wrong. But I would expect the low teens to be what we’re looking at this next week before a decent hold over the holiday weekend.
The Hangover continues to roll, around $40 million ahead of Wedding Crashers as of this point in its 2005 run. It’s also ahead about 12% on fourth-Friday vs fourth-Friday. WC had another $73m in the tank, domestically, after this point. If Hangover follows in its steps and we consider the uptick so far, Hangover is looking at near $250 million.
Up is the #2 Pixar film after 29 days in release, behind only Finding Nemo (by about $4 million). The film will pass Cars and Toy Story 2 to become the #4 Pixar film ever domestically with plenty of box office to be expected. And it should pass Monsters, Inc. and The Incredibles by the end of the Fourth of July weekend to grab that #2 slot with Nemo just over $70m away at that point. The film is a long way from defining itself internationally, still not open in any of Pixar’s Top 5 international markets and not due in some of them until the fall.
After a slow start, the summer is beginning to look more like prior summers. We’re now looking at two $200 million-plus films (Star Trek/The Hangover) and two $300 million-plus films (Tr2/Up). Potter 6 and Ice Age 3 look to add another pair of $200m domestic films to the mix. We have been rather spoiled by the three-quels and so forth, but this will only be the third time in history that we’ve had as many as six $200m+ movies in a summer, topped only by 2007’s seven.
A strong start for The Hurt Locker in a 4 screen release, but I worry that Summit will Che’ the film into ecstatic obscurity by opening it as an indie event. It’s very challenging to open a film wide without stars. But this one hypes itself. People really get it once they see it. And there is The Hangover as a template this summer. These are the films that turn marketers’ hair gray.

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68 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady – Box Office of The Fallen”

  1. doug r says:

    So how does that Friday compare to Tranny 1? Any bets on ROTF(LMAO) drop for next Friday? 60%?

  2. Blackcloud says:

    Everything the critics say about Revenge of the Fallen is true, but I still liked it. I can’t imagine a more violent film, not so much in blood and gore. I mean in the way it assaults and offends the viewers senses and sensibilities, invades them and refuses to relent from the first frame to the last. It’s a very peculiar kind of film experience, the unceasing sensory overload. And, of course, it’s as dumb as the blonde chick, whose purpose is so transparent as to acquit the filmmakers of any charge of insulting our intelligence, since since that would require them to at least pretend to deceive us.
    And despite all that, I enjoyed the big, dumb spectacle, Megan Fox (as herself), Kevin Dunn and Julie White, Shia, John Turturro (but not his thong), the great FX by ILM. I just wish the last act wasn’t an overlong, plodding mess, and that the robots were in it more, and that the villains weren’t anonymous machines.
    Both big Paramount flicks this summmer, therefore, have betrayed their franchises’ credos. “Star Trek” boldly ventured where many have gone before, and “Revenge of the Fallen” certainly is not more than meets the eye. At best what you see is what you get. More likely, it’s even less.

  3. Don Murphy says:

    I’ve been saying for two years now, while David has been counting the critics die, that they no longer matter and maybe never did. There are dozens of “Fresh films” on Rotten Tomatoes that no one has ever heard of. I think what happened is that every asshole has an opinion and now they have a place to spout that opinion… so ALL opinions are worthless. Who qualified Knowles to have an opinion when he writes like a five year old retard? Or Drew, who is a terrific writer, but what makes his opinion better than say Dave’s? So sure, the reviews are not great on TF 2 but it was made for humans, not internet dicks and the exit poles show a 90% approval rating so the word of mouth can be counted on to be awesome not negative.
    I’m not boasting as I admit on my website that this one was all the Bay man… I’m just saying that any analysis of this or anything in the future that takes into account the critics is doomed to follow.

  4. David Poland says:

    I don’t think we disagree on this on big studio movies, Don. I’ve been saying that nothing but marketing matters on opening weekend for over a decade.
    On the other hand, I think you are deluding yourself if you think this movie is going to turn out to be well loved.
    Critics mean nothing to a wide release’s opening weekend, yes. But the opening weekend box office means nothing about whether the film is of quality – as a fan film or as a piece of art – or is a piece of shit.
    Sorry, pal (and I mean that in a sincere way)… can’t have it both ways.

  5. Don Murphy says:

    I never said that it was going to be well loved (read closer!) nor that it won’t be- I don’t know of a barometer wherein either of us can win the argument. If my ten year old nephew loves it and you hate it as it seems is that a draw? I dunno- he’ll get the dvd, the toys, the shirts and the sequels so I don’t think it’s a draw.
    So my only point was that critics don’t matter and you or La Finke mentioning that the reviews suck is amusing, nothing more. The reviews sucked on Land of the Lost and it failed. The reviews sucked here and we succeed. I think people want to see TF and didn’t know what to make of LOTL. My point really is that the reviews are no longer a barometer of a damn thing.

  6. Blackcloud says:

    “So sure, the reviews are not great on TF 2 but it was made for humans . . .” So was “The Dark Knight,” which is an immeasurably superior movie. Heck, even the original “Transformers” is a better flick.
    I’m not sure we can say that people disagree with the critics if they are seeing it in such numbers. A blockbuster like this, people will see regardless. And it’s entirely possible that audiences will agree with the critics and still not care. As I said above, I agree with the critics, yet still enjoyed the movie. Objectively, it’s terrible. But subjectively, people will, not necessarily overlook, but accept a lot of imperfections and shortcomings if it entertains them and gives then some spills, thrills, and gratuitous shots of Megan Fox.

  7. Eric says:

    A friend sends me a message on Thursday morning that said, “Well, Transformers sucked.” And I replied, “It’s not like I’m not going to see it anyway.”

  8. David Poland says:

    And Don…
    1. I didn’t mention the reviews at all. Unlike Nikki, I leave my house and all the responses I have heard have been markedly less enthusiastic than on the first film.
    2. Opening weekend exit polling for a genre picture is notoriously misleading, except when it is a surprise hit or miss. I have no doubt that there is enough there for kids who want to see explosions, transformers, and Megan’s fox. But even they aren’t happy the way they have been… maybe my survey is wrong… maybe I can’t accurately tell Star Trek buzz from Transformers 2 buzz… but maybe I can.

  9. bulldog68 says:

    There is no barometer. Critics don’t matter. Its all a crapshoot. Thats the 2009 reality. While I agree with Dave that its the marketing that gets you the opening weekend numbers, I’m sertiously convinced that quality has less to do with the remaining weekends. Its more about the experience and zeitgeist. How do you explain My Big fat Greek wedding? Small weekend, no huge critical following to speak off, and look what that snorefest of a movie did. Then take an obvious popcorn flick like The Rundown, a perfectly cast movie, great combo of action and comedy, critical fave, and no opening weekend, no legs to speak.
    Can you really say that the better Harry Potter movies made the most money, or the Star Wars flicks, or the Bonds, or Shreks, or Pirates. In fact the lowest grossing Potter (Azkaban) was probably the most critically supported. Its just a toss up.
    Could they have a made a critically positive Transformers movie that was also a commercial success. Yeah, I think so. Bit I also think the odds are against convincing a bunch of subtitle reading, coffee drinking, I’ve-never-made-a-film-in-my-life-so-I’ll-just-shit-all-over-yours critics that a film about TRUCKS THAT TRANSFORM INTO FUCKING ROBOTS will be a ‘for your consideration’ type movie.
    The audience that I saw Tran2 with laughed their asses off at the trippy mom, at the robot testicles, and at the thong. And so did I. Mission accomplished.
    I didn’t like the twins, not because of some racial issue, (I’m black by the way), but because my cute factor ends with Bumblebee. I didn’t need any more Jar Jar Binks rehashes. And I just think that when they try to write ebonics, they get it wrong. Mission failed.
    The action however delivered in spades. Shit got blown up. Women looked hot. Robots kicked ass.
    Don Murphy knows exactly where this movie falls. They played to their audience, and their audience is lapping it up. Whats so wrong about that.

  10. LYT says:

    It isn’t about whether people AGREE with critics — it’s whether they can tell from a critic’s review whether they’ll like it or not. And I think most critics succeeded in this case.
    Had I not already seen the movie, I could have extrapolated from David’s highly negative review that I would like it, as he gave me enough information to know as much.
    I do find it hilarious that critics who will bend over backwards to figure out a narrative where there is none in INLAND EMPIRE find the relatively simple Transformers 2 plot “incomprehensible.”

  11. Crow T Robot says:

    I have to say, the Transformers themselves prompt a very particular psychological reaction… My brain tries to differentiate what is machine and what is “body part,” while the tommy-gun editing deprives it of finishing the process. And my mind is so worn out from figuring this out every ten seconds, the “character scenes” come as a relief. After a while, every shot of CGI scratches the psyche while every shot away makes it itch. Bay doesn’t understand dramatic energy at all but he has natural (Gestapo-esque) understanding of psychological torture.
    That said, I was amused by the old “Treebeard” robot (genuinely Spielbergian) and the slick marble-bot sequence (a take on the prison break scene in X2). Shia Lebouf is also perfectly cast here again.
    But again, the draw of this movie has more in common with narcotics and porn than good storytelling. The CGI, directed mercilessly by Bay, is there to overstimulate neurons, rather than inspire.
    The question is, if the audience is applauding regardless, does it matter?

  12. David Poland says:

    I actually have no investment in audiences disliking films I dislike (in all but a very few occurrences).
    But I also think that people get amped up for a movie like this and you don’t know what they really feel until that buzz passes.
    Anyone else notice that when tickets to Broadway shows passed the $100 mark that EVERY performance of EVERY show was suddenly worthy of standing ovation?
    People want to be right about what they wanted and paid for.

  13. Joe Leydon says:

    Funnily enough, Don, I don’t recall your telling the press that critics don’t matter back when you were pushing Permanent Midnight. Did I miss those interviews?

  14. Blackcloud says:

    “My brain tries to differentiate what is machine and what is ‘body part,’ while the tommy-gun editing deprives it of finishing the process. And my mind is so worn out from figuring this out every ten seconds, the ‘character scenes’ come as a relief.”
    It’s funny how in a movie about giant robots it’s the giant robot scenes that are the incomprehenisible ones. My reaction to the robots is the same as Crow’s. There is something inscrutable about them when they are in robot shape, especially the Decepticons, that thwarts understanding. The Autobots look vaguely human (have they become humanized by spending time with humans?), but the Decepticons are a smash of angles and metal and joints. They are alien, but in ways I’m not sure was intended. You can look at them, but you cannot see them.

  15. T. Holly says:

    People are going in blind and experiencing the disappointment for themselves, so when the dust settles, it may prop critics up in the eyes of movie goers, but it won’t deter them from going next time either.

  16. jeffmcm says:

    Well said, Blackcloud. To a certain degree, the robots are a blur even when they’re standing still, which is an odd sensation.

  17. Eric says:

    That’s a good way of putting it, Jeff. The robots’ designs just have too much detail. There’s no contrast, it’s just a jumble of gadgety something-or-other. I had a lot of trouble telling the difference between Megatron and Starscream throughout.

  18. mysteryperfecta says:

    Thing is, I wouldn’t expect Don Murphy to care about the quality of the movie, especially if its making this kind of money. He’s a producer. But is there SOMEBODY involved on the creative side that feels sheepish/embarrassed about how terrible the movie is? Certainly not the director/writers. One of the actors, maybe? Does EVERYONE involved rationalize the end result?

  19. CleanSteve says:

    In the same boat as Blackcloud. It’s stupid, crass, tasteless, aurally and visually punishing hunk of indulgement.
    But I had a fun theater experience with it. I had fun. I laughed at most of the jokes. The stuff with Sam’s mom was amusing. She is a funny –though rote– character that the actress sells. I found Turturro, again, hammy and funny. He knows he’s in junk and enjoys himself. The thong scene was gross but it got a laugh.
    Thing is, I am finding myself starting to respect Bay’s ability to just not fucking care. I mean that as his willingness to put humping dogs in a movie about giant robots. These things are non sequituers spewed from the mind of a 14 year old boy. That’s the movie’s target audience.
    Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think bay is some sort of misunderstood genius. He may well be developmentally retarded. But i imagine him on the set one day and thinking ” why don’t we have humping male dogs in this scene? that might be funny.” “I want the robot to pee on Turturro. CGI this post haste!” There is something charming to me about that. Critics bitch over and over about that but he just fucking keeps doing it. It’s his signature. He doesn’t make art or good movies, but he is a consistent artist whose movies have what I now think to be a genuine personal style.
    The movie is PG-13. The inappropriate humor is aimed at that age level. Kids like poop jokes, humping jokes, fart jokes. Always have. Parents know the rating. Yes, it’s marketed to younger kids but even so. parents can say no if they want to. I’m a parent. I investigate what my kids –6,10 and 15– want to see. I took my 2 youngest and don’t feel they were corrupted in any way.
    Was this the way to approach this property? I don’t know. But I have a hard time picturing a serious Transformers movie.
    The racist robots? I dunno. You can explain your way out of this or you can make the case. The worst thing about them to me was that they were superfluous. And I thought the action scenes for the most part were clearer and coreographed much better overall. But he robots remain over-designed.
    Bottom line: the movie is not the end of civilization, or movies. that seems to be the reaction from most critics and the fanboy community. People need to get a grip.
    Off topic: I find it amusing that Disney all of a sudden is including Zack Galifinakis in the G-FORCE trailer. I had no idea he was even in this until today. And I for one do not begrudge the guy a paycheck, must like David Cross in ALVIN. Ride that train while it’s hot, pal. Like Ray Davies sang “success walks hand in hand with failure along Hollywood Blvd.”

  20. David Poland says:

    For the record, I saw ZG in a G-Force trailer before The Hangover happened. It’s even on the Jonas Bros Blu-ray DVD.

  21. Eric says:

    I wasn’t put off by the racial stuff in the robots in the first movie, and in the sequel I was even tolerating the ebonics out of the robot with the buckteeth and big ears. But when he announced that he couldn’t read, even I was kind of appalled.

  22. Jerryishere says:

    Why do you have the Jonas Blu-ray?

  23. Jerryishere says:

    Just saw Hurt Locker.
    Almost great. But pretty solid all around.
    Packed house at Arclight.
    But NO WAY this thing goes wide.
    Not gonna happen.

  24. leahnz says:

    well you would know, jerrishere…
    all this ass-kissing of ‘trannies deux’ and letting it off the hook is making me a bit nauseous.
    don murphy:
    ‘…but it [TF2] was made for humans.’
    what an insult to humanity. why not just admit it was made for teenage boys and leave it at that, rather than insulting our intelligence.
    after seeing the movie again with a bunch of 10/11yr old boys, the most remarkable thing about the movie is this: how can such an aggro shit-goes-boom eyeball-scorching gung-ho militaristic smarmy offensive shitfest be so damn BORING?! it felt about 5 hrs long, it was that dull. even shitfests shouldn’t be boring.
    the first movie, of which i am a mild fan, at least had a modicum of charm and clarity. much of it was terribly silly hockum but there was an earnestness to it, some great set-piece action – in particular blackout’s opening attack and the scorpinok sequence in the desert, which were clean and exciting – and sam was an endearing, sympathetic hero with our heroine michaela, a cutie-pie high school girl with a bit of wry, sullen sexpot in her, tough and resourceful (never mind fox couldn’t act to save her life, but she managed to at least breath some life into the character of michaela). and perhaps one of the best things about the first movie was the terrific score; the use of music for effect was well done and i think i enjoy the score more than any other aspect of the first film.
    all of that, gone for the second movie. from the ADHD carnage emerges an inexplicably dull, charmless snooze with a few bright spots here and there, not nearly enough to save it from sheer direness (and what bay did to the character of michaela is INEXCUSABLE, taking our heroine and instead of using the opportunity to build on her moxie from the first film to create a memorable character, she is turned into a vapid, witless, sullen, barbie doll porn star who does nothing of use but scream ‘SAM’ at least 800 times and look UTTERLY REDICULOUS. poor fox. never have i been more sickened by bay, shame on him. what an asswipe.
    (and re: michaela, kids are very perceptive. some of the comments from the barrage of questions from the boy and his mates after the movie: ‘what was wrong with micheala?’, ‘why did she act so useless (direct quote, that one)?’, ‘her lips looked funny.’ even THEY felt a mild betrayal by the ‘trannies deux’ completely inappropriate porn version of micheala, supposedly our heroine. bad, bad scene. i hope bay takes his kazillion dollars and fucks off to some porn palace in the desert, never to be seen in mainstream film again. perchance to dream)

  25. CleanSteve says:

    I stand corrected, Dave.
    Perhaps I missed him due to cringing at the screen through my fingers.

  26. Don Murphy says:

    Joe- Critics loved Permanent Midnight, Bully and Apt Pupil and cumumlatively they didn’t gross what TF2 crossed just Tues Midnight. Also I don’t think Internet 2.0 had arrived by 1998 (P Midnight). There’s a good article on the Guardian about how Fat Fuck Knowles had killed criticism. Critics can say whatever they want and to be honest I could give a fuck. Look I’ll give you an example- there is this guy named Brian Orndorf who says he is a film critic. He writes like a retarded 5 year old. No one in the world would care about his opinions. But he writes his reviews, and then spams IMDB with notices so people read his crap. And then this gets counted by Rotten Tomatoes as an opinion. What a load of horseshit. Sorry Joe- if you want Criticism to survive and matter try and figure out a way whereby it isn’t just every opinion of every retarded Brian Orndorf being spewed. Because if it is, if every opinion counts, then NONE count.
    David- (btw this is spirited debate not an argument) Transformers is a genre movie now? Like My Blood Valentine 3D or something?

  27. CleanSteve says:

    I don’t think I’m letting it off “the hook.” I just ended up genuinely enjoying. NO WAY will it hold up at home. Yet in the theater the off the scales stupidity won me over in spite of myself. I neither defend nor forgive it’s sins. I just enjoyed watching the sinner. And it didn’t kil me, nor corrupt, dirty or destroy my faith in humanity.
    I think Bay would be a much better filmmaker with just one adjustment: stop moving the camera in every fucking scene!!!! That would make things so much better. Start there. This spinning around people for no reason needs to stop.

  28. CleanSteve says:

    RE: Film Critics
    Until the internet I had no idea there were people who didn’t like E.T., JAWS, HALLOWEEN, etc. Now we have at our fingertips access to millions of opinions 24/7. That tends to distort the importance of the impact or importance of those criticisms. People will always see what they want to see. Always have. I believe in Dave’s opening weekend/buzz/marketing theory.
    This also comes into a discussion with my wife about the IFC greatest trailers list. One knows about a movie years before it’s released nowadays. You can follow it every step, see the trailer at will, etc. I’m not against that because I do it.
    But imagine (and some here probably did) going into a theater cold in 1978, not know what trailers you would see. Then you get the trailer ALIEN. The thrill and buzz and pure “WTF IS THAT?” excitement must be awesome. Unless you are a shut-in or a Mennonite, that’s tough to come by.
    So to sum up: the internet ruined everything 😉

  29. anghus says:

    I liked TF2. They streamlined a lot of the stupid into more managable moments.
    Most of the human characters had a purpose. Though josh duhamel had this troubled look on his face in every scene. The twins are racist? Was mush mouth racist?
    People need to relax
    I got my moneys worth.

  30. jeffmcm says:

    The twins and Mush Mouth aren’t properly comparable. Every character on Fat Albert was a ‘type’ in one way or another, just like in Peanuts where you had Schroeder or Pigpen or Peppermint Patty. The twins are disturbing comic relief from the ‘normal’ characters of Optimus Prime etc.

  31. leahnz says:

    don’t tell me to relax, anghus. i’ll prance around on a bed of nails shrieking to high heaven whilst tensing every single muscle after 11 cups of coffee while fashioning a noose for michael bay if i damn well want to.
    maybe you should get some taste, how about them apples!

  32. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Should these numbers pan out “Away We Go” hits the national top 10. Focus expanded it properly by emphasizing the top 75 TV markets AND getting the film into megaplexes.
    “The Hurt Locker” is staying limited for now due to product flow. “Whatever Works” goes national in July.
    “Cheri” and “Soraya M.” are D.O.A. Thanks to “Cheri” there should be a Three Strikes law for movie promotion.

  33. Don Murphy says:

    and then people like leahnz wonder why no man will have her…. I wonder if we can get her kids out of that house….

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    Don and CleanSteve: I’m having high-speed Internet outage this weekend — thanks, Comcast — so, believe it or not, I’m writing while on dial-up. It’s a pain, but I just wanted to say: I know this will make me sound like an elitist — or, worse, like someone trying to keep the masses out of his clubhouse — but, to a large degree, you’re both right.

  35. jeffmcm says:

    I wish we could put Leah and Don Murphy in a steel cage match together.

  36. Don Murphy says:

    and you’d be there to clean up afterwards since I heard they finally gave you a lav brush at work

  37. jeffmcm says:

    Somebody stole it.

  38. Joe Leydon says:

    Note: I didn’t mean Don is at all right about leahnz. But a slap at JeffMcM? How could I not agree?

  39. jeffmcm says:

    …he yipped feverishly.

  40. christian says:

    What’s with the JUNO rip-off poster for AWAY WE GO? It’s such an obvious clone I would think it wouldn’t help…maybe not.

  41. doug r says:

    Don, how can you be so defensive. Just sit back and count your money.
    My kid fell asleep during the first one. Don’t think I’ll be taking her to the second one.
    She enjoyed both showings of Star Trek I took her to and didn’t fall asleep during Land of The Lost at least.

  42. When my wife and I say Transformers in theaters, our unborn daughter violently kicked her mother’s womb in protest (she did the same thing when exposed to Grease 2). My then three-month old daughter slept all through the 140 minutes of Transformers the second time I watched it on HD DVD, with commentary. This latter viewing made Transformers the best movie of 2007, if only for a day.

  43. William Goss says:

    “So sure, the reviews are not great on TF 2 but it was made for humans, not internet dicks and the exit poles show a 90% approval rating so the word of mouth can be counted on to be awesome not negative.”
    Hey, Don – how’d While She Was Out play with humans?

  44. Nick Rogers says:

    What I’m wondering is whether these “exit Poles” Don has mentioned also are stereotypes.

  45. Drew McW says:

    Two things…
    First, I liked “While She Was Out,” Goss. I thought it was strong work from Basinger. It’s a fairly simple narrative, but her descent into raw animal panic is fairly convincing. That film cost about what one-half of one day’s catering on “Transformers 2” cost, too, so I’m not sure why you’re dragging it into the conversation.
    Second, next one to say “the twins can’t read so that’s racist” is a moron. NONE OF THE TRANSFORMERS EXCEPT FOR THE PRIMES could read the ancient writing. It’s a plot point that’s mentioned about nine times. If it’s racist, then it’s racist AGAINST FUCKING ROBOTS. Not against black people.
    I’m amazed at how critics call the general viewing public stupid, but they seize on plot points they get wrong and then beat those points up in a herd.

  46. Tofu says:

    Criticism isn’t dead, but I’m with Don in pointing out that counting every last schmuck is weak tea. So… That throws out first weekend exit polls.
    With my knowledge, I’m seeking criticism that highlights the craft, and seeks for the filmmakers’ next foray to be improved by such critiquing. What I’m not seeking is cute one-liner quips sprinkled about, as if mirroring the junk they are decrying.
    Back to the business side, I’m still surprised at the surprised reactions to the opening and 5-day. Anyone checking the DVD sales charts last year could have seen these numbers as clear as day. The audience demand was there. Now will it return in equal force once again? That’s the one billion dollar question.

  47. William Goss says:

    Drew: “While She Was Out” is the film for which Mr. Orndorf and other reviewers got the most grief, from what I understand. It didn’t do Transformers-level box office, of course, but I was wondering if Don wasn’t devaluing critics more in that case because that film happened to be written and directed by his wife.

  48. LYT says:

    Don Murphy — please try to persuade Michael Bay to shoot Transformers 3 in 3-D.
    That is all.

  49. ployp says:

    “that the villains weren’t anonymous machines.”
    I’m with Blackcloud. I couldn’t tell one from another and it was very annoying. As for the good guys, I didn’t catch the names of the 2 motorcycles. Can anyone help me out here?
    Transformers 3 in 3-D sounds fun. I’m all for it.

  50. For the record, unless I misheard (and please correct me if I did), the twin robots didn’t say that they couldn’t read the ancient language, they said that they flat-out didn’t read at all. There is a difference. They could have easily said ‘oh, I can’t read that ancient stuff’, but instead they said something to the affect of ‘I’m not good with the readin’.’ Again, correct me if I’m wrong, but the characters state that they are completely illiterate.

  51. Blackcloud says:

    The motorcycles Autobot is named Arcee.

  52. Aladdin Sane says:

    The more I think about TF:ROTF(LOL?), the more I don’t care for it. The first film, even while far from perfect at least had a bit of a coherent storyline- there were not three or four storylines vying for our attention at any given time. The fact of the matter is that while Michael Bay is a talented filmmaker as far as spectacle goes, he just doesn’t have the chops to juggle multiple storylines in a movie.
    I really wanted to like the film, but it just didn’t do it for me. I’ve been rewatching season one of the original cartoon series, and while the dialogue is at times ludicrous, at least it’s interesting. Sure 25 years later it could use some polishing, but the building blocks are all there. It’s really just amazing that when the movies are held up to it, how crappy they become – and I was thinking that they would have been an improvement. Especially the second. Live and learn.

  53. Tofu says:

    The original Transformers certainly had three to four plots running at the same time. Was surprisingly confused regarding who was who then, and so prepared to know who was who ahead of time with the second.
    Worked out fine, until Megatron & Starscream shared screen time (as expected). Why Starscream was made to look silver and close to the same size as the The Big Bad is still a mystery.
    If Transformers 3 doesn’t include more IMAX & 3-D shots, then I’ll eat my voice changing helmet.

  54. Don Murphy says:

    Goss- Mr. Orndof is a poor writer who has zero readers on his personally generated site, whose comments are sub-idiotic and who literally spammed every review he ever wrote to IMDB (as if it could get more pathetic than THAT site) screaming “Please Please I beg you read my crap review.” And only after that did I find out that his incoherent ramblings counted on Rotten Tomatoes as a “critic” and a review. This of course led to confirmation in my mind that if opinions are like assholes and everyone has one and they are now aggregated, then essentially they mean NOTHING. So you name the movie, I don’t think the critics meant a damn. Imagine That flops because nobody wanted to see Bedtime Stories with Eddie Murphy. And if you’re a defender of Orndorf then welcome to my list big fella, not a good place to be.

  55. IOIOIOI says:

    Uh no Scott, Mudflap and Skids point out that they cannot read THAT language because it’s OLD. They even bring up the PRIMES. So anyone thinking they say they cannot read, is obviously not paying attention. You at least have a reason for not hearing it properly, Scott.

  56. David Poland says:

    Signs of insanity…
    1. Repeating the same behavior many times, expecting another outcome.
    2. Discussing the minutiae of Transformers 2.
    3. Discussing the minutiae of Transformers 2 many times, expecting another outcome.

  57. Eric says:

    I was curious to see if I misremembered the qualifier– not that they can’t read, but that they can’t read that particular text— so I checked the IMDB’s quotes page. This is all it offers:
    [from trailer]
    Sam Witwicky: Can you read this?
    Skids: Read? Unh uh.
    Mudflap: We don’t – we don’t really do much reading.

    Not that I think IMDB is gospel, but so far that’s the best I can find. And it supports what Scott says.
    If anybody has any other links, especially to video of the scene, it would clear it up better than one guy’s recollection vs. another guy’s recollection.

  58. ployp says:

    Thanks Blackcloud. I recall there’s an old ice cream truck. Which autobot is that? Did he/she changed disguise?

  59. Nick Rogers says:

    I remember it as Eric found it on IMDB.

  60. LYT says:

    “We don’t – we don’t really do much reading.” That seems to me like a line that can absolutely be read as them trying to play it cool. None of the Autobots can read the language, but rather than directly cop to that upfront, Mudflap and Skids say it like reading is something totally uncool, which fits their whole phony-hip gangsta vibe.
    (Was it racist in Beavis and Butt-head when Butt-head proudly stated: “Words suck. If I wanted to read, I’d go to school”? Similar tone, IMO.)
    And the ice cream truck was Mudflap and Skids combined into one, before it got cut in to and they got new bodies.
    I’m no fan of the buck teeth, but nor was I on “Mater” in CARS.

  61. Blackcloud says:

    ^ I asked in the thread about Dave’s review if the buckteeth reminded anyone else of Mater. Glad I’m not the only one.

  62. don lewis (was PetalumaFilms) says:

    Critics don’t matter to huge, summer blockbuster craptaculars like TRANSFORMERS:ROTF (although I anxiously await the pull quotes ROTF will be using by midweek from all these hacks who liked the movie), but I think we can be of help to smaller films that might not get noticed without some reviews.
    I also think there needs to be some way of telling which critics are worth their salt and thus should be listened to so we can all avoid dolts like Brian Orndorf. As a new member of the Online Film Critic Society, I hope we can work towards some kind of way to show that some writers can actually, you know, write and might be worth listening to more than some fatass geek with a laptop.
    But as for big movies like Tranny2:ROTF, critics don’t matter. Just like food critics don’t matter to shitty fast food places.

  63. Cadavra says:

    Tr3 will never be made in 3-D. Bay would never give up his trademark ADD editing, and anyone who knows anything about 3-D will tell you that fast cutting renders it literally unwatchable, as the eyes can’t reprocess 3-D images that rapidly.

  64. T. Holly says:

    You don’t like Orndorf because he syphons hits on stuff like The Proposal, Grace & Year One away from you, and who are you going to pick on, Billington?
    Luke, I wish the box Mikaela carries split into two, so when she bends down in the desert, it magically re-appears as a first aid kit. If this were on tv, I’d put commercials after the teaser, after the call to action, before the climax, after the climax, before the resolution and before things got back to normal.

  65. CleanSteve says:

    Thanks, Joe, for commenting I may be right. About what, I’m not sure but it’s more than I get from the wife.
    Re: Don Lewis
    Critics can sway me on things I am on the fence about. I think that’s common among genuine movie fans. But it’s only the critics I know and read consistently. Avoiding the “dolts” is the key. Ebert is the Optimus Prime. I’m not saying anything new or original here but it’s simply because he is a genuinely great writer. he is the only critic I’ve ever read who can almost convince me that I am wrong about a movie I like. I never come out of a review not understanding why he did or didn’t like a movie. He can be unpredictable and, IMHO, off the mark here and there (Star Trek; Knowing; Step Brothers sticks in my craw, too, oddly. he also cheated Let The Right One In, Wall-E and The Incredibles out of a half star. For shame!).
    I like reading dave when he writes reviews. I only agree about 50% of the time but he analyzes things deeply (over analyzes here and there, but so do I). Plus (cheap attempt at brownie points) SPEED RACER was in my top 5 of ’08…
    I read Knowles for the same reason I liked TF2. I don’t take him seriously at all, but it’s like a freakshow. And, for what it’s worth, the Onion AV club. Being a detached hipster douchebag myself, I can relate.
    My favorite movie promo so far this year was the tv ad for The Proposal, where “critics agree!” 3 or 4 pull quotes flash on the screen…all from the same no-name pod person. “Critics” my ass!
    Point is, critics are still important and useful. But it’s damn hard to sift through the ball pit of “critics” these days to the find the few that are real and worthwhile. If you don’t do so then perceptions are distorted. It took me a long time to realize that.

  66. leahnz says:

    ‘and then people like leahnz wonder why no man will have her…. I wonder if we can get her kids out of that house….’
    you are one classy dude, don murphy
    (shall we talk about YOUR wife and kids now? i believe i directed one short comment to you re: a previous statement you’d made about tranniesdeux in the thread, and yet i seem to remember several people giving you shit about your lame movie previously on the blog but funnily enough, no comments to them about their mating prowess and taking away their children…could it be because they were men? wait, you mean michael ‘the smarm’ bay’s producer is also a misogynist? get out! what are the odds)
    and then there’s this charmer to william goss, whoever he is:
    ‘…And if you’re a defender of Orndorf then welcome to my list big fella, not a good place to be.’
    somebody dares not to tow the typical two-faced sycophant ass-kissing hollywood line? murphy is putting you on notice! cower before him.
    typical insecure playground bully. you can dish it out but you can’t take it.

  67. don lewis (was PetalumaFilms) says:

    I should add that I don’t know much about Brian Orndorf and thought he was merely one of those IMDB forum critics who are soooooooo irritating. The guy is actually a real writer and I shouldn’t have called him a dolt. That was my bad. Unless he is of course, a dolt. But I have no proof of that as yet. But seriously, I should have looked before I leapt…on him.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon