Weekend Estimates by Klady – 6/21/09
Pelham’s drop was not happy, though the opening was not out of line with either star’s history. And if it lands in the 70s, as it may, it will pretty much be in line with the two stars’ normal numbers. The certainly weren’t looking for Ladder 49, but…
Not only is this opening for Sandra Bullock double her best prior ever, but it looks like the film will be the fourth $100 million movie in her career. And it will put Anne Fletcher right in line with Adam Shankman and Shawn Levy as top comedy directors outside of the Stiller/Apatow/Sandler boy crews… whether you like it or not.
Year One is on the low end of the Apatow scale. If it gets to $60 million against a cost of $60m to produce (I am just trusting the studio-believing BO Mojo on this one… no insight of my own), they will lose some money on this one, given that Jack Black as Jack Black does not do foreign box office. As a Panda, yes. As a wild man, no. It will be a modest loss, but a loss nonetheless.
This is the first attempt to build out a Woody Allen movie from this few screens in 20 years. It’s okay. But it isn’t a big win until they can convert strong, nit not blow out numbers in NY and LA into a national release. My guess is that Sony Classics has invested less in this one so far than the cost of a month’s rent in their offices and will be perfectly fine just taking in DVD receipts. But they were probably hoping for better as well.
DP, are you sure about that Woody Allen stat? According to box office mojo, Match Point, Melinda & Melinda, Sweet & Lowdown, Everyone Says I Love You, Bullets Over Broadway, and Alice opened in fewer than Whatever Work’s 9 theaters.
I was going to make a comment about how 30k seems like a pretty decent per-screen average, but then I looked it up on BOM and the record holder is The Lion King, which somehow made 793,000 bucks per screen on two screens in the summer of 1994. I’m not even sure how that’s possible outside of charging 100 bucks a ticket.
matro – If I remember correctly, one of those two screens for opening weekend of The Lion King was Radio City Music Hall, which seats about 6,000 people.
That is a pretty damn good number for The Proposal – took my wife to see it last night, she loved it and the packed audience ate it up. Have to admit I also enjoyed it – I have a weak spot for Bullock. Never found her to be such a hottie, but she really is a comedienne on the level of Tina Fey, I don’t care what any one says. Watch Miss Congeniality and you’ll see what I mean.
Just bizarre numbers – how did Proposal, Year One, and Hangover not cannabalize each other???? Actually you look at and the top four films are ALL comedies – has that even happened before, let alone in June of all months?
And some said that June has become more of a dumping ground – certainly seems to be the case in recent years. I think the studios are getting scared when films like Incredible Hulk can’t get the mega-opengings they need and lose screens quickly afterwards.
Predictions for Transformers, any one? How BIG??? It really could go all over the map, but my prediction is $123 million over the weekend, total about $178 million in the first five days. The big movie field has been pretty much cleared at this point and it would be the first June opening to clear $100 million.
No doubt Hangover is heading towards $200 million – another strange stat: it has a decent shot of becoming the second highest grossing live action June release of the decade, only below Spiderman 2. Pretty crazy, huh????
OLVIA WILDE, MAXIM’S #1 SEXIEST WOMAN 2009, has a costarring role in YEAR ONE and they barely featured her in the ads. Someone PLEASE tell me she doesn’t have her paired with Jack Black.
Anyway, while I disagree with Wilde occupying Maxim’s top-most spot, especially now (she was sexier four years ago clam-shmackin’ with Mischa Barton on The O.C.), if she’s THAT SEXY, if she’s THAT MUCH OF A STAR, why didn’t they promote her presence in the movie more in the trailer? All I’ve seen is one shot where she turns up her nose at Jack Black.
Like, Bay doesn’t hate the fact that MEGAN FOX in The Transformers. IT’S A SELLING POINT. If OLIVIA WILDE is the #1 SEX GODDESS IN 2009 CINEMA, put her on the fucking poster.
The Year One one-sheet is a travesty.
I assume Woody Allen took “Whatever Works” to Sony Classics because the Weinstein Co. has collapsed. SPC won’t take the film national until July due to product flow and the 4th falling on a Saturday.
Speaking of product flow SPC releases too many movies too close together, all of them with half-fast marketing. Two AMC megaplexes near Philly had “Easy Virtue” from SPC this week because they got turned down for “Away We Go” from Focus. The grosses tell the obvious result.
@Geoff: Original fare promoted properly brings in money — look back to any June over the past 10-15 years.
Year One could’ve added another $5-10 million if The Hangover wasn’t knocking all BO expectations right out of the park. The Proposal isn’t a threat to either Year One or The Hangover, as it’s a chick flick, however Year One and The Hangover are both aiming squarely at the same audience. Unfortunately for Harold Ramis, Year One is terrible and I won’t be surprised if the drop next week is 60% or higher.
If this is the team behind Ghostbusters 3, I’m a little concerned.
“Year One” isn’t terrible, Kid (see my comments on Friday BYOB).
I enjoyed “Proposal” well enough (big Bullock and Reynolds fan here), but the Ramis film is actually the more original and, quite frankly, interesting of the two comedies.
Clearly “Hangover”–a movie I still kind of loathe–is destined to hit the $200-million mark. But how much farther can/will it go? Since it’s already at $153-million after a $27-million (third) weekend, another $100-million (at least) is hardly out of the question. Pretty amazing for an R-rated movie in this day and age.
And yes, to whoever suggested that “Ice Age 3” will take a major bite out of “Up”‘s legs (if only because it will steal most of the Pixar toon’s 3-D screens). Still, I think it has a good chance of reaching $285-$300-million before all is said and done. It’s already pocketed a hefty $224-million, right?
No BYOB Sunday, so I’ll just toss this out there and see if anyone nibbles:
Am I the only one who’s puzzled–and frankly a little stunned–that Sony pulled the plug on the Soderbergh/Pitt movie (literally) days before principal photography was set to begin? Do you think that another studio will ride to it’s rescue, or is it officially dead in the water?
Did anyone read Ebert’s review of Year One? He only saw the poster beforehand, and he figured it was an Adam and Eve story starring Michael Cera as Eve.
ROFFLE! and ouch…
“Not only is this opening for Sandra Bullock double her best prior ever, but it looks like the film will be the fourth $100 million movie in her career. And it will put Anne Fletcher right in line with Adam Shankman and Shawn Levy as top comedy directors outside of the Stiller/Apatow/Sandler boy crews… whether you like it or not.”
Right in line with top comedy directors Shawn “Night At The Museum/The Pink Panter/Cheaper By The Dozen/Just Married” Levy and Adam “Hairspray/Cheaper By the Dozen 2/The Pacifier/Bringing Down the House” Shankman? Whether I like it or not? THIS FROM THE GUY WHO SAYS EVERYTHING RELEASED FROM JANUARY TO APRIL IS BASICALLY SHITE??? Are you gaslighting me!
And…seeing as how Shankman directed “Bedtime Stories”, which starred Adam Sandler, I guess that other top comedy crew is down to a duo, yeah?
“Did anyone read Ebert’s review of Year One? He only saw the poster beforehand, and he figured it was an Adam and Eve story starring Michael Cera as Eve.
ROFFLE! and ouch…”
If that’s an ouch, this one’s an AI-YEEEEE!!!: “Black was fresh and funny once, a reason then to welcome him in a movie, but here he forgets to act and simply announces his lines.”
Bruno officially “jumps the manding strip”: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/21/bruno-in-berlin-dons-pink_n_218640.html
I’m getting tired of the Bruno onslaught, but those pictures are funny as hell.
Like I said, Hallick… whether you like it or not.
Hollywood, except in rare circumstances, does not base decisions on quality. Never has. Never will.
And Bedtime Stories, which I have seen about half of, is not quite the disaster it’s been made out to be. The choice to market is as Adam Sandler For Kids was a big mistake. The fact that when I saw the movie, I was shocked by the cast that is in it, says volumes. Still… a $110m domestic/$212m ww movie… the best overseas showing for Sandler ever… #4 domestic movie in December… pretty sure this has not DQed Shankman
David: “Hollywood, except in rare circumstances, does not base decisions on quality. Never has. Never will.”
Sorry, but this is BS. And I will dispute your statement: Consider Robert Altman between 1975 and 1980.
Altman’s ’70s output post Nashville was mostly dire, culminating in the disasterous Popeye. So I’m not sure where “quality” enters into your argument.
Wrecktum: I might dispute your judgment. But here’s the thing: Post Nashville — how many of those films do you think got greeen-lit because of some EXPECTATION of quality from the guy who made Nashville and MASH?
They were very inexpensive films, Joe, often made with stars, coming on the heels of a success much bigger than they saw coming in MASH, a movie that made 10 times its costs in rentals alone. Nashville also made profits that more than matched its budget.
They never “got” Altman, but he didn’t lose money and actors wanted to work with him. Just because they didn’t quite get why they were doing it doesn’t mean they weren’t doing it for their own reasons.
82 to 87 is much more indicative of him as a pure artist, even if the films aren’t as good. The on-set, off-camera issues on Popeye ended his Hollywood era. And the art he worked harder to get made was his as well.
And Popeye is not only a brilliant film, but a profitable one, outgrossing Urban Cowboy, The Shining, Seems Like Old Times, Cheech & Chong’s Next Movie. and Caddyshack. The film got slaughtered for off-camera issues, especially cocaine, because of Robert Evans’ involvement and Altman’s bad behavior and has been mischaracterized as a total disaster ever since.
David: Don’t misunderstand: I actually have higher regard than most people for some of the films Altman made between Nashville and The Player. But here’s the thing: Just like I tell my students — RKO didn’t hire Orson Welles and give him a blank check to make Citizen Kane because they wanted to change the face of cinema as we know it. They thought they’d make some money. Same with Fox and Altman during these years. I bet they thougbt even A Wedding and A Perfect Couple — 2 movies I like more than most people — might do well. And God bless Fox for taking the risk.
Yes… but don’t forget that that A Wedding was positioned as having an all-star cast and a rare screen appearance by the then-massively popular Carol Burnett.
And they loaded Health up with even more names, plus some of his peeps (Dooley) had had some more non-Altman recognition by then.
David: You have just proved my point. Thanks.
Poland’s point is the opposite of yours, Leydon. He’s saying those films were greenlit because they were 1) chock full of stars and 2) cheap. It was marketable to be in the Altman business, even if the movies of those years were more miss than hit.
Popeye = M A S T E R P I E C E. Seriously.
I kinda hate The Wedding (actually think it might be his pre-Dr. T/Prairie worst), sorta like the universally loathed Quintet, and some day really should throw in the VHS tapes on which I taped Perfect Couple and HEALTH like 14 years ago.
Also, “Whatever Works” = Allen’s best since “Match Point”; Larry David is a GENIUS, but more importantly, HOLY SHIT is EVAN RACHEL WOOD HOT AS HELL in it. Check out her PERFECT ASS and long coltish legs and ZERO PERCENT BODY FAT.
An early frontrunner for the LexG 2009 Boner Awards.
I also delighted myself throughout wondering if Marilyn Manson visited her on set, and if Manson and Woody (or David) crossed paths.
GOOD MOVIE.
POPEYE is still Robin Williams’ greatest performance. You want to talk perfect comic strip casting, I give you Williams and Shelly Duvall and Paul Smith.
Shelly Duvall RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUULES.
In one year there she appeared in two of the greatest movies ever made, with two of the best female performances ever put to film. Yeah, it’s the stuff of legend how ambushed she was on THE SHINING, but that performance NEEEEEEVER gets its due. There are shots and scenes where she looks as haunted, frazzled and terrified as anyone who’s ever appeared on film.
GOOD ACTRESS.
Also: I STILL have a boner from EVAN RACHEL WOOD in that Woody movie today. It will not go away. EVAN VIAGRA WOOD is more like it. TOTAL HOTNESS. I HAVE A BONER. A GIANT BONER. GO SEE WHATEVER WORKS NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW.
EVAN RACHEL WOOD HAS A *****BONZA***** BODY.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Since this IS a box office blog, looks like this weekend ended up a pretty good one – Up and Hangover are just showing very good legs. But here’s a weird one and I know I’ve engaged DP on the Trek-bashing, lately, but this is just strange:
Trek actually went up this weekend and went up almost 15% from Saturday to Sunday – and on a non-holiday weekend. Is Par possibly fudging their numbers? Could that really be a Father’s Day bump? Just curious…..