Friday estimates by Klady – July 11, 09
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ADD, 9:58a – Klady has The Hurt Locker doing 172k on 60.
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Transformers:ROTLF passed the first film’s total at the domestic box office yesterday. The first film had another $70 million in it after this point (third Friday) in its run.
Bruno‘s opening day is about $5 million ahead of Borat‘s. Of course, Borat was opened on a limited number of screens… less than a quarter of the count this weekend. Still, the expansion in both numbers seems about right. This movie will serve its audience well, but there is a cap to the number of people who want to see this kind of film. A similar 1/3 bump for the weekend puts it around $35 million… though it will probably do slightly better than that.
$4600 per screen on 2 is a good start for Humpday, but not overwhelming. Perhaps it needed more Twittering. Magnolia just isn’t a theatrical-first releasing company anymore. $3 million is about their high range and that doesn’t happen much. The best a picture like Humpday can really expect is about 50 screens at a time and $1.5 million. And when you think about it, for a picture made this way, at this price, and with the anointing of Lynn Shelton, there can be no complaints from the film’s makers. But when you look at it as a symptom of indieWOOD, it still has to make you wonder how often the end results will ever overwhelm the means again.
Up is really petering out now. It would be an audacious choice by Disney to pull it from theaters soon and then relaunch in late August with an eye on a 2 or 3 week run. It is the rare film that could draw a crowd based on a “remember how great it is… come back and experience it on a screen one ore time” sell.
The Taking of Pelham 123 is about over too. The $60m domestic and change is not horrible, given the talent involved. Not good, but not horrible. $80 million is about what was realistic for these two actors, given that the film’s premise, in spite of Tony Scott, couldn’t quite get people feeling like it was a real action movie, but more like a drama. This is one of those rare cases where I think critics hurt, not by negative reviews, but by setting a tone that wasn’t overcome by marketing. And it has to be said, John Travolta’s personal loss was the film’s loss, as Travolta remains one of the best salesmen for his movies in the business. The difference between the perception of “hit” and “flop” here was about 40%. If Travolta could have raised the opening numbers by 15%, that alone could have boosted the final domestic number by a multiple of that.
My Sister’s Keeper may not seem like much, but it is a modest success and Cameron Diaz’s strongest dramatic outing as the frontwoman, passing up In Her Shoes yesterday on its way to $40m+ domestic. Diaz also has a strong foreign position, so the film could end up close to $100m worldwide, which would be a hit indeed. (Or it could flop… one never knows, do one? but probably not.)
Those Friday drop-off numbers are a bit misleading actually, as last Friday was a national holiday – expect the weekend dropoff numbers for most of these movies to be pretty good, as Saturday is sure to see an uptick from last week.
Still good numbers all around – The Proposal is holding pretty well and now has an outside shot at Mama Mia numbers. I might have declare the death of Ice Age prematurely, as Fox could conceivably drag this close to $200 million.
Public Enemies could maybe hold on to $100 million, it’s going to be close. Same with Up and $300 million – it seems to have taken a punch from losing 3D screens to Ice Age, but it’s going to be close.
But Dave, where are the numbers for Hurt Locker??? I know it was expanding, this weekend.
Right now, the top five for the summer is stacking up as follows, what do you guys think:
1. Transformers $394 million
2. Up $305
3. Harry Potter $301 (pure guess)
4. Star Trek $260
5. The Hangover $251
If this holds, could be the first summer ever with five films grossing over $250 million.
However, no matter how you slice it, it’s going to be a down summer from last year – The Dark Knight comparisons start next week and it’s going to be brutal. Even if Harry Potter overperforms a bit, there’s really nothing on the slate to make up those dollars.
Sure, Funny People, Ugly Truth, and Julie and Julia could make some bank, but is it going to really exceed the over $300 million that last summer’s R-rated comedy triumvirate (Steph Brothers, Tropic Thunder, Pineapple Express) brought in? Not likely.
GI Joe could do okay, but I doubt it will do much more than Mummy 3. I have a feeling that Inglorious Bastards and District 9 could be ok, but they will be pure “niche” in David’s words.
That leaves one film with possibly big upside that could MAYBE make up the difference – G Force! Sad, isn’t it? I have no desire to see it, but you can never underestimate Bruckheimer.
How much credit is Ryan Reynolds getting for The Proposal?
Josh, I’d say almost all the credit.
A lot, Josh.
Reynolds, who I have been a big fan of forever (long-timers may remember me touting him for Anakin Skywalker), has just kept creeping up the list of valuable talent. He has certainly proven himself as being on a Hugh Grant level or higher by now.
It’s interesting that no one seems to be connecting Green Lantern to Deadpool. Is it really possible for Reynolds to star in a Marvel and a DC franchise, pretty much back to back?
I don’t think The Hangover is actually headed to $250m. But the story of this summer is the story of all summers… it’s the movies… and it’s the marketing… there is an audience and they want to get excited… you just have to offer them the chance.
PELHAM wasn’t a bad film, I liked the Denzel Washington flawed protagonist angle, and the sequences involving the hijacking were well crafted but John Travolta is no Robert Shaw, his psychotic, smirking, giggling FACE OFF/BROKEN ARROW/PUNISHER act was more of the same (I would’ve loved to see Washington and Travolta switch roles).
SPOILER ALERT
The original had grit, a great score, menacing villains and a great ending with Martin Balsam (the ‘gezundheit’ bit) – this one has Washington in LETHAL WEAPON mode chasing Travolta with a gun – its ridiculous.
Kudos though to Tony Scott for staying away from his erratic editing, filters and all the other cinematic bullshit he indulges in.
Best thing about this movie was the cop car transporting the money chase – which the original had as well.
I just dont think anyone really had expectations of this hitting 100 million – 60 million is as good as you can get for this sort of film.
With little fanfare, The Proposal will be Bullock’s highest domestic grosser in a few weeks (Speed’s $350m worldwide is likely out of reach), but yes, it seems like Reynolds is getting more credit than Bullock (hence the Green Lantern casting). The Hangover may not quite make it to $250m, but the thing just will not die, no matter how much direct competition (Transformers 2, Bruno, etc) you throw at it. It’ll pass Saving Private Ryan tomorrow as #5 on the all-time R-rated list. It’ll easily end up as the number 3 R-rated film of all time (behind Matrix 2 and Passion of the Christ and ahead of the $232m and $234m grosses of The Exorcist and Beverly Hills Cop) and one of the top 3 or 4 highest grossing pure comedies (depending of if it can pass My Big Fat Greek Wedding’s $242m). It’ll break my heart not seeing Up get to $300m, but unless there is a gimmick like DP suggested, I can’t see it happening.
Yeah, the concept of G-Force (hi-tech action with hamsters and gerbils) seems too obviously humorous (in theory if not execution) for people to resist. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t do solid post-Potter business.
As for Potter, I think the IMAX snafu will really hurt them in the long run. Not hardcore, but it may make the difference between $290m and $300m+. People like me would have gladly seen the film twice, first in 35mm and then two weeks later in IMAX 3D. But people like me didn’t have a kid two years ago. I don’t know how representative I am of the general public (not really I’d guess), but if a hardcore movie nerd like me won’t see the film twice, what chance does the IMAX version have with general moviegoers?
Well PROPOSAL must have done something to Reynold’s cause trades report he’s GREEN LANTERN plus he gets his own DEADPOOL spinoff from WOLVERINE.
Well, besides his growth in box office stature, really, Justin Timberlake or Bradley Cooper vs Reynolds? That’s the easiest decision to make… EVER.
I think “My Sister’s Keeper” could have made even more money if it hadn’t been squeezed out of the medium-sized and smaller theaters by the blockbusters. So many people I know were interested in seeing it, but they were looking at something like two hours+ of drive time to do so, and, well, “My Sister’s Keeper” isn’t the kind of movie that gets that kind of commitment. Too bad.
Reynolds is getting credit for “The Proposal” AND his portion of “Wolverine”. I’m not sure how his being hired for “Green Lantern” means he got all of the credit for the Bullock movie since it wasn’t like the casting was down to her or him, or a “Wonder Woman”-type project fell through for her at the same time. Let’s not forget how much easier it is for an actor to springboard to something like Lantern than it is for an actress to do the same.
I guess, Hallick, is that the success of The Proposal means that Reynolds gets to try a major new project that could him into a mega-star, while Bullock (theoretically) gets only the capitol to do more romantic comedies (probably with the caveat of having a major male costar). If the film’s success means that Bullock gets to do something outside her ‘safe zone’ in a mainstream studio picture (like play a villain in a major thriller or action picture), then I’ll GLADLY eat my words.
Your heart will break if “Up” is “only” the second-most-popular movie from the most consistently successful studio? Yikes.
And is a mainstream studio film about race and football in Bullock’s “safe zone?”
If her resume is anything to go by, I don’t think Bullock is really all that interested in the real estate outside of her own safe zone. A zone that shows an iron clad resolve to stay in “movie star” films as opposed to something riskier or indie.
And Reynolds is hitting the peak of his career’s first act while Bullock is somewhere around her second, so it isn’t a fair contrast. She’s had her moment in the heat already.
Refresh my memory… which Bullock film (about race and football) are you referring to? Nothing’s comes to mind, even while glancing at her filmography.
Scott, Chris is referring to the upcoming adaptation of The Blind Side.
I’d also take issue with Bullock not leaving her safe zone as – even though it wasn’t as seen as “Capote” and I think she wasn’t as solid as Catherine Keener (who it must SUCK to get compared to) – playing the subdued Harper Lee in “Infamous” was outside of what just about anybody could consider Bullock’s “safe zone.” Also, her bitchy role in “Crash.”
That said, I still like her best in “Demolition Man.”
Thanks, RP. Sounds interesting. For the record, what I meant by ‘safe zone’ was her fronting a major studio project in a genre that usually wouldn’t be starring Sandra Bullock. She’s made plenty of artsy projects (Infamous, Gun Shy, Crash), but those were small-studio/indie efforts. This has nothing to do with the material that she will search out for, but rather what will be offered to her as a mainstream studio project.
And yes, I knew she was gonna be huge after Demolition Man as well. A truly witty, star making performance. The movie hasn’t aged all that well, but it’s still a trashy, violent B-movie good time with a genuinely funny Stallone and Wesley Snipes’s best attempts at playing his variation on The Joker.
“The Blind Side” is Warner Bros., Scott. Based on a New York Times magazine story. Not an action movie, but not a comedy. Mainstream.
I look at it as starring in a movie is starring in a movie, no matter who is fronting it. And I’d think making an indie is even more outside of a “safe zone” than being in a big budget studio picture anyway, regardless of genre. And is Crash all that different than the average big studio movie anyway? It was polished, was full of well known actors, etc.
If Sandra Bullock really wanted to front a studio film that usually doesn’t hire a Sandra Bullock, she could have done that by now. For an example, I usually flinch at the idea of seeing a Renee Zellweger movie, but even she has spread her wings and done more diverse work than Bullock. Maybe Sandra Bullock is just good at playing Sandra Bullock and that’s the thing limiting her career. I don’t know.
Just saw Public Enemies. Put me in the camp that thinks it’s one of the best crime/gangster sagas ever made.
It is a pure visual delight and a true gamechanger in the genre like Goodfellas before it.
Mann achieved a merging of old and new and showed the Depression era in a way I had never imagined before. Neither romanticized nor simplified, it saw the crime of the era in a light that was/is every bit as brutal as the crime of today. And yet, with the Clark Gable sequence, it almost shows a respect to the earlier crime films of a by-gone era. Public Enemies does not dump on the past of gangster cinema but instead extrapolates and builds on it.
Depp probably is the best actor of his generation and what a joy to see Stephen Lang in a real role again.
Fantastic stuff and easily my favourite film of the year.
The cinematography here is as groundbreaking as Barry Lyndon.
Fantastic film!
Nicol, I couldn’t agree more. PE is one of the most stunningly beautiful films I’ve ever seen. I annoyed the shit out of my wife by leaning over to her every 10 minutes and asking her if she could believe how damn gorgeous it looked. Mann and Spinotti should both be nominated for their work. This one needs to be seen on the big screen. Also, the score and music are spectacular. And of course the cast is stellar. I loved seeing James Russo, John Ortiz, Stephen Lang and Domenick Lombardozzi in roles large and small. As a huge fan of the book, which I highly recommend, I think Mann did it justice. I would love a three hour version, but beggars can’t be choosers. I am a little puzzled by the mixed reviews. I found it to be immensely satisfying. A visual treat and highly entertaining. I already want to see it again.
Did you see PE with film or digital projection?
As a character piece, PE didn’t really blow up my skirt. It works better as a study in behaviour… of action and reaction… of tired dark eyes moving around the Edward Hopper scenery waiting for the next bad thing to happen. Didn’t really know how I was supposed to feel at the end of it all. Loved Stephen Lang channeling his inner Michael Parks… and Baby Face Nelson’s final tommy-gun death spray is one for the ages.
Stella,
I came out of the 3:45 show and I cannot stop thinking about it. I feel like I have seen a real piece of cinema history here. I feel that rarely. As the film progressed I thought, something special in terms of cinema and changing of eras and how they are represented is happening here. We always think of the Depression as sepia toned etc. And there is nothing wrong with that. But Mann made the past seem relevant and vital. Depp too! He (and all the actors) are a part of that.
This might be Mann’s best film. Maybe that is why there are so many mixed reviews. This film really does something different.
Martin,
Mine was 35mm. Still looked awesome.
Crow,
“Didn’t really know how I was supposed to feel at the end of it all.”
I do not disagree. It is much more than a “crime doesn’t pay” saga. Although that is there. It is much more than a “violence will kill your soul” saga, although that is there. The film is a lot of things and neither simple nor easy to digest.
Also, many people are saying this is no Heat but Heat was also recieved with mixed reviews when it came out against Casino in 95. I remember one Toronto reviewer calling it just another “Robert DeNiro slugfest.”. Of course now, we think differently. I think the same will be said if Public Enemies.
Oh my, I thought Reynolds was dull as dishwater in Proposal…Bullock was charming/funny, concept had so much unrealized potential. They dropped their bickering almost the minute they got to Alaska and kooky family took over…not such a stretch for her to love him since his family has mega-bucks…contrived family biz drama…no conflict with down-to-earth former GF…no real build of chemistry or compatibility…am I mistaken, or was Seth Rogen supposed to be the Green Lantern…?
Jenna, I believe Seth is going to play Green Hornet, which in the DC universe is actually Green Lantern’s brother. I know, hard to keep up.
I don’t remember Green Hornet being in the DC Universe.
Speaking of comic properties… is there a prayer os SUPERMAX getting made?
It’s a film that interests me.
I think Sandra had her fill of indie making stuff like Fire on the Amazon on the way up.
Ryan Reynolds has a wonderful witty way about him that should serve him well in Green Lantern.
“PE” is a great-looking film, but I’m not buying this “whole new view of the Depression” argument. The Depression is barely mentioned and there are almost no characters who aren’t gangsters or gangster hangers-on. There’s very little sense of how Dillinger played in America (like, did people really fall for that “I steal the bank’s money, not the people’s” crap?). And the film has a grand total of one compelling character, Billie Frechette, but the movie’s depiction of Frechette and Dillinger as a great tragic romance is fictitious.
martin: I haven’t followed comics in decades, but I’ve never heard anything about Green Lantern and Green Hornet being related. Green Hornet is, however, the nephew of The Lone Ranger.
Anghus: If they put Justin Hartley in that film. It could happen. Just a thought.
I also agree with Nicol D. Public Enemies is an astounding film. If it’s not in the top 10, if this film does not get Johnny Depp a fucking nomination, and if Stephen Lang does not get one as well. Well, really, I am just going to shake my fist at a cloud.
I think we can all agree now that Stephen Lang will not get a Supporting Actor nominee this year, even though I agree that he does a very good job. But it doesn’t press enough Oscar buttons: a part that’s too small, played by an actor who’s not especially well-known, in a movie with mixed critical and box-office success.
Yeah. Oscar history is littered with people in too small roles, that are hardly known, and THEY GET NOMINATED IN SUPPORTING ROLES ALL THE TIME! Jesus fucking Christ Jeff. You just had to be a dick to me, and in doing so. You fucking forgot recent Oscar history. Say hello to your roommate for me.
@DP: “Up” won’t get re-released because August is clogged with product. Also, kids go back to school in August in most states.
@Geoff: “Funny People” is for circle jerks and promoted as such. “Julie and Julia” gets offset by “The Time Traveler’s Wife” one week later. “GI Joe” is a godawful mess from what I understand.
@ScottM: “G-Force” skews very young and opens 9 days after the latest Harry Potter.
@Hallick: “My Sister’s Keeper” was promoted in the circle jerk way, hence it underperformed.
“Mann and Spinotti should both be nominated for their work. This one needs to be seen on the big screen.”
Yeah, but preferably in DLP. I saw PE on film and i wish i’d travelled the extra 40 miles to see it digitally. Seeing it on film is seeing it one generation away from the source, and for me the images didn’t ‘pop’ off the screen the way some commentators are saying. I remember Ebert a few years ago ragging on seeing Attack of the Clones on film compared to digital, and even now the problem of exhibiting digitally-shot movies on film is the same. I saw Revenge of the Sith on celluloid and digitally, and the gulf in quality was equivalent to the gap between DVD and Blu-Ray. Whilst PE is a great movie, if your only option is seeing it on film, you may be better served waiting for the Blu-Ray in the fall.
Chucky, even if they didn’t advertise in a “circle jerk way” (I assume that means oscar whoring?) then it would have made the same since weepies about children dying from cancer and the parents genetically engineering children to be bred for body parts don’t exactly seem like the type of movies to gross megabucks, ya know?
IO, it’s saying things like that that just lead to blog “fights”. You getting incredibly angry because a group of people who you hate (didn’t you say you were giving up on the Academy after that Dark Knight business?) not liking what you like, people telling you “they just didn’t like it” and then you yelling at everyone for “NOT GETTING IT” and for being unhip and not knowing a thing about pop culture (?!?)
Dr Wally, what if you don’t have blu ray (like most people)?
@Kami: You’ve got a star who’s in magazines all the time. How do you promite her latest movie? “From the director of ‘The Notebook’.” THAT tells the public Hollywood is a bunch of circle jerks.
Chucky – weepy chicks who ate up THE NOTEBOOK were the expected audience for MY SISTER’S KEEPER. Letting them know that the two movies had a commonality was not the cause of the film’s underperformance. Kamikaze pretty much hit in on the head.
A print campaign that pushed the idea that Cameron Diaz and Abigail Breslin were sisters, however, made me laugh my ass off. (That and the fact that the cancer-ridden child was tucked in a corner below the credit bed blowing bubbles.)
And WTF is up with BRUNO’s 37% Friday to Saturday drop? Holy Christ!
“Dr Wally, what if you don’t have blu ray (like most people)?”
Then go the extra yard to see PE digitally if you can. Personally, i find that many things about Blu-Ray suck (the pain-in-the-ass region coding, early players not being ready for prime-time, slow load times on the PS3), but this is one movie you have to have in HD.
Chucky, I’m pretty sure someone has called you out on this before, and I know it doesn’t really matter and you’ll keep saying the same three or four things you always say, but “most states” do not have kids going back to school in August. Most public schools don’t go back until after Labor Day, which this year isn’t until 9/7 (and though it falls late this year, usually still falls on a September date). It doesn’t mean UP will get re-released, but it’s more because the product-clog you mention (as well as studios being less inventive with release patterns in the last few years), not because of some made-up stat about kids actually going back to school on 8/25 or something. Many colleges go back that early, but not so much with public schools.
Jesse: Speaking strictly in terms of population numbers: Couldn’t it be at least 50/50 in terms of when school begins? Here in Texas, it’s the latter part of August. And, well, there are a lot of people in Texas.
Hmmm… that’s a point about population, Joe. And I guess a lot of Cali goes back before Labor Day, too, which I didn’t know. The “most states” bit just throws me because that seems like an absurd generalization. Which I countered with a little east coast bias, I guess.
So to counterbalance any capitulation to Chucky’s point: telling audiences a new movie is from the creators of a previous hit movie OFTEN WORKS. Or did you not see The Hangover’s “from the director of Old School” tags everywhere? I sure did. And I didn’t even like either movie.
Just to throw in my comments on some minutae:
Green Hornet is NOT part of the DC universe, nor does he bear ANY relation to Green Lantern. As someone else pointed out GH is the nephew of the Lone Ranger.
And school starts before Labor day for at least half the country now.
Jesse: Yeah, a friend of mine teaches high school in New York, and she’s always happy to razz me about how she’s still enjoying her summer vacation long after I resume teaching my college courses here in Houston. “Oh, Joe, it was so nice out at the beach today…”
For all those who love being circle jerks: Georgia Rule.
While some states do start back-to-school in August, here in Seattle August is still summer and we don’t go back until September (though some districts here are actually starting in late August this year because of all the snow days last year). My kids don’t start until Sept 19. Fall quarter for the local colleges starts Sept 21 or later here.
Chucky, you are crossing the line from being misleading and inaccurate and moving into total solipsistic incoherence.
Using Georgia Rule as an example for anything is like me saying that since penguins don’t fly, therefore no birds fly. You’re doing it wrong.
Bmcintire, Cameron Diaz is playing Abigail Breslin’s mother, not her sister.
IOI, I have no idea what ‘say hi to your roommate for me’ means, except that I’m sure it’s meant to be insulting. Once again, you’re letting your bias (‘Since I like something EVERYBODY has to like it’) destroy your analytic abilities, such as they are. I like Lang’s performance, and if any one of the factors I mentioned wasn’t present (little-known actor, small part, critically-mixed movie, summer instead of Awards Season) he might have a shot. Add them all up and he is out of luck, which is too bad, because he will probably be one of the more deserving actors by the end of the year.
Kami, he was being a douche. Check that… he is a douche. He just wanted to act all pompus and forthright again in order to prove his assertions about how right he fucking is about everything. He’s a douche. It’s simple as that Kami.
Jeff, not only do you not fit in anywhere in this world. You also miss an obvious Biff Tannen reference. You also were trying to assert yourself — like you probably like doing most Thursday nights — over me. Seriously simpleton, you are a bogus tool, that not only lacks the backbone to meet detractors in person. You also lack the good sense the mother earth gave Mahi on Captain Planet.
It’s fucking July, I was being silly you dunce, and Lang kills it at the end of PE. If there are five more better supporting roles for men this year, then let their be five more supporting roles for men. Right now, in July you dunderheaded ox shape human, Lang has just as much chance as anyone.
You are not better than me, and you are not as good looking as Lex. This apparently leaves you in a shitty position. You fucking oaf.
Gee, IOI, I’m really sorry I missed your totally gratuitous, random Back to the Future reference.
Just to make you feel better, I didn’t get your ‘Thursday nights’ ‘ox shape’ or Captain Planet references either.
I’d meet you in person, though, if you were in Los Angeles, because I’m really very curious about what you look like.
Captain Planet is a super hero whose arch-nemesis is Nicol D… OK, I just made up the last part…
Wait a minute –
Biff Tannen in Back to the Future: “Say hi to your mom for me.”
IOI in 2009: “Say hello to your roommate for me.”
There’s some kind of dissonance going on between your brain and your typing hands, IOI.
http://www.the-earchives.com/Characters/B/153
Years back, Film Comment used to do a “Year In Movies” section that had a sub-section dedicated to the little performances in the background that got overlooked in favor of the more anointed ones that people were beating the Oscar drums for. This is where Stephen Lang would sit on top of everybody.
The problem with Lang getting nominated next year (not that he couldn’t, but just that he probably won’t), is the fact that it’s July, “Public Enemies” did mildly at the box office and with the critics, and Lang is playing the type of character that doesn’t grab people by the labels and brand himself into their hearts and memories. Stoicism and self-containment, even as beautifully played as it is here, don’t usually secure the noms. He isn’t searing, he isn’t hilarious, he isn’t famous, and he doesn’t make grown men weep; he’s just this wonderfully polished professional lawman that takes over the picture with twenty minutes to go.