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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

The Big Question Of The Weekend Box Office Is…

… NOT whether Harry Potter will smash any records, bur whether the expansion of The Hurt Locker will be effective.
Clearly, Summit wants it to work. They talked to Bloomberg and argued that this painfully slow expansion – without much television advertising support – is the best way to go. The journalist even compared it to Slumdog Millionaire or Gran Torino. This is, simply, factually inaccurate. Besides the fact that both films were spending millions in TV buys even before the films expanded – and in the case of Torino, the expansion was in weekend 5… to 2800 screens – both films were definitively chasing Oscar during Oscar season. I argued then as I would still argue that Torino could have opened wide from Weekend One and perhaps grossed even more. But the choice to roll out slow was an Oscar play… in some ways to avoid being seen as “just” a commercial film.
But let’s dig deeper…
A total of 25 films that initially opened on fewer than 100 screens earned as much as $5 million at the domestic box office last year. 12 of the 25 were released in November or December, every single one strategically pursuing Oscar. Of the other 13, only 5 got to $10 million domestic (U2 3D, Rachel Getting Married, The Duchess… all under $14m… Kit Kittredge ($!8m)… and WB/NL’s Appaloosa, the only $20m movie, grossing $20.2m.
Appaloosa went to 1045 screens in Weekend 3, Kit Kittredge went to 1843 in Weekend 3, The Duchess went to 1207 screens in Weekend 4, Rachel Getting Married never got past 391 screens and never had a weekend of more than $1.5m, and U2 3D never got past a 686 screen/$1m weekend.
I’ve looked back over the last 5 years, looking for exceptions to my sense of fearing this strategy. I found some documentaries, like Sicko and An Inconvenient Truth. But with features, the only films I could consider were Broken Flowers (Bill Murray comedy with sex, following Lost In Translation, $13.7m), Napoleon Dynamite ($45m), and Garden State ($26.8m). But Broken was on over 400 screens and Garden was at over 650 screens by Weekend 4.
So really, Summit is trying to play the Napoleon Dynamite card… except that they aren’t in partnership with MTV on this film and they aren’t getting millions and millions of dollars in cross promotional advertising every week targeting its very specific audience.
So… what’s the downside?
Well, Summit could play their word-of-mouth game so close to the financial vest that they taint their truly great movie to a degree that costs it an Oscar nomination next January… even with 10 nominees.
The Oscar landscape is littered, year after year, with movies that should have been there but were not. And it is why there is the fall pile-up of Oscar hopefuls. Historically, the summer and spring movies that make it are movies that have very strong box office.
Would In Bruges have been a Best Picture nominee last year if there were 10 nominees? Maybe. Or maybe it would have been kept out by Wrestler, Torino, Defiance, Visitor, and Rev Road. That is the game of roulette that Summit seems willing to play with this film that is more beloved by those who have seen it than any movie but Slumdog last year.
And maybe it will work out. This is, again, a terrific movie. And word of mouth will get Academy members to watch it on DVD, even if they don’t see it now.
But you have to go back to 1996’s Secret & Lies to find a film that hadn’t grossed $15 million at the time of nominations that was not a December release. And if this expansion to 93 screens this weekend doesn’t hit $1 million, we are very likely looking at a film that will not get to that number in domestic release… unless Summit decides to release this very commercial film in a more commercial way… or lightening strikes.
My hopes are with Summit, but more so, with the film.

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11 Responses to “The Big Question Of The Weekend Box Office Is…”

  1. Joe Leydon says:

    The Hurt Locker opened today in Houston. Without press screenings. No, I am not making that up.

  2. I sincerely hope the film is a solid hit and it gets Oscar noms, if only because it may mean that studios might try a little less hard to cram every would-be quality film into the last two weeks of the year.

  3. TMJ says:

    That’s strange about Houston, Joe. We’re getting it next week in Charlotte (smaller market) and they press screened well in advance and offered Bigelow and Renner for phoners.
    I’m wondering if it’s the same “war fatigue” that hurt great (Taxi to the Dark Side, $274,661), decent (Rendtion, $9.7 million) and disappointing (In the Valley of Elah, $6.7 million) films at the box office?
    If Summit gets desparate, they can cut a trailer trumpeting the chick from LOST’s scenes.

  4. Moviezzz says:

    I have to wonder if the moviegoing audience out there is even really aware of THE HURT LOCKER.
    As much as I want to see the film, I would be surprised if I could find one person in my area who has even heard of it.
    The “stars” aren’t making the talk show rounds. I don’t think I’ve even seen a single clip from the film on TV.
    Plus, it has the whole Iraq War theme which isn’t much of a selling point.
    The reviews can’t be better, but reviews alone don’t get people into the theatre.

  5. martin says:

    Nothing against the great actors in THL, but the reality is that this film is a tough sell without a “star” to make it a safe $10 ticket for the masses. All I see is another arthouse Iraq movie with lots of stuff blowing up. It has yet to distinguish itself from that many other recent Iraq movies with good reviews and action-heavy trailers. It may be a great film, and a great populist action film, but it’s missing a few elements that help an arthouse movie break out. It may have a better shot in the fall to do so. But right now I just don’t feel like the heat for the film is out there. Not really what they can do about it either, short of bringing it out again later in the year during all the Awards talk.

  6. I’m seeing this in a few weeks at a film festival. Of course, by then, people will have stopped talking about it probably.

  7. Hallick says:

    “I have to wonder if the moviegoing audience out there is even really aware of THE HURT LOCKER.
    As much as I want to see the film, I would be surprised if I could find one person in my area who has even heard of it.”
    I think that’s it. We’re here talking about “The Hurt Locker”, wondering why it can’t get any momentum, why it took so long to get released, whether or not the title is confusing people away from the movie, etc, but out in the world, I don’t think most people even know it exists. What would everybody else here guess that the awareness level on this one is? Would anybody go for higher than 10%? Or even 5%?

  8. errolmorrisfan says:

    There is no way this is making a million dollars this weekend. Maybe 600 or 700k.

  9. Chucky in Jersey says:

    The Houston theater with “The Hurt Locker” is the Angelika — 1 print only. Summit must believe the Houston media is gorged out on Harry Potter hype.
    Charlotte has 3 Regals that are arthouse/upmarket plus an AMC megaplex that includes arthouse hits. There are a lot of expat New Yorkers who now live in the Carolinas.

  10. LexG says:

    ^ FACEPALM ^

  11. jeffmcm says:

    Best possible reaction, Lex.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4