Weekend Estimates by Klady – Hampsters & Wizards & Panties, Oh My
Not too much to think about here. (But I’ll find something.) Potter’s second drop is estimated to be 3.6% worse than Phoenix, which is the series’ previous top earner by the end of the second weekend. Half-Blood is still $14m ahead of any other P-flick, but as I have droned on about, it will all equalize and $285m – $295m will put this Potter right in line with the rest domestically.
Meanwhile, the film is well over $400m overseas, where it is now likely (anticipating the overseas weekend numbers) past Transformers ROTLF and is now behind only Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs in the race for top international earner of the summer (as expected).
The Ugly Truth opens about $6.6m behind The Proposal as the #2 rom/com opening of the summer. The number continues to set K-eigl’s box office range. (I know… sexist… but it’s funnier than K-Heigl, which was where I was first going.) Like her real life tabloid drama or not, she is having the movie career that Lindsay Lohan was supposed to be having about now.
And by the way… the opening is $3 million less than Bruno, and is being estimated to do 2.4x the Friday gross vs Bruno‘s 2.1x Friday. Yet Ugly is, properly, being seen as a successful opening. What’s the difference? Media preconception and bias based not on journalistic analysis, but bandwagoning against SBC’s movie. Meanwhile, the 3rd weekend hold of Bruno improved, in spite of the film losing 864 theaters. The worldwide and domestic gross look to be about half of Borat in the end.
G-Force is Disney’s third $30m+ opener this summer, a stat with which they join WB and Fox. (The three $30m+ers for both Fox & WB were also $40m+ers.) It’s another one of those movies, underestimated, but a strong earner… slightly bigger opening than BH Taco Bell Dogs.
Speaking of Fox, Ice Age 3 is making a slow run to $200 million, which will give this summer six $200 million films, keeping the season from being the first summer not to have six $200m+ movies since 2006. The standard of five-per was set in 2005, then to six in 2007. You can point to increasing ticket prices if you must, but the $200m threshold is still – since eclipsing $100m as the key stat – an achievement of note.
For those keeping count…
*The Proposal is Sandra Bullock’s all-time best domestically and will be behind only Speed as her 2nd biggest worldwide hit.
*Up is locked in as Pixar’s #2 domestic hit, about $50m behind Nemo… foreign has barely started rolling out yet.
*X-Men Origins: Wolverine is only about $44 million behind X2: X-Men United worldwide with about $20 million more to be anticipated overseas, making it one of the most profitable films of the summer.
*Night At The Museum: Battle of The Smithsonian was about 1/3 off of the first film, both foreign & domestic. And that was the profit margin Fox was hoping to cash in on by doing the sequel. Still… with nearly $400 million worldwide, it is hardly a disaster and will (just) scrape its way into the black via post-theatrical revenues.
*Angels & Demons is a similar case, off about a third worldwide, still grossing over $475m ww… and even closer to black ink. Not what they hoped. Not a disaster.
The story of Summer 2009 is, as it has been before, the utter destruction of the movie middle class. There have been 25 studio releases so far this summer. 11 have grossed more than $100 million with 3 more with that number in sight. Of the other 11, you have three legitimate flops (Land of the Lost, Year One, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past), four legitimate lower-budget minor successes (Bruno, My Sister’s Keeper, Drag Me to Hell, Orphan), one overly expensive programmer that is waiting on foreign to determine if it loses a lot (The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3), and three widely released, but overt studio dumps (Dance Flick, Imagine That, I Love You Beth Cooper).
Of all of those, excluding the dumpers, the only two films that were really targeting the domestic middle-class of movies (around $80m) were Bruno and Pelham. The two stars that would have also been within range of expectations, but overperformed, were The Proposal and the phenom, The Hangover. (Hangover will triple Todd Phillips’ prior best domestic grosser and double his prior best worldwide.)
If studios won’t commit to making profitable movies based on domestic grosses between $60m and $80m, they are making a suicidal mistake. With all the money being spent, no more than five films will have profits – in reality – of over $100 million this summer. And we will see more than a dozen movies with grosses over $300m worldwide. There is a major disconnect there. And that is the business that The Business is chasing these days. Oy.
AND… The Hurt Locker expanded by 144 screens, to 238, and did a very respectable $1.4 million. And we’re still running a bit behind Sunshine Cleaning.
Historically, this is how it goes from here in, roughly: 500 screens next weekend, $1.9 million gross. 650 screens the next weekend… $1.65m gross. 750 screens the next weekend… $1.4m gross. And we’ve cracked $10 million… but the movie is on the way out. $900k… $700k… $400k… $200k… $120k…. $50k… $25k…. DVD. And the film grosses under $15m domestic.
I am beating a dead horse here. This was a very good weekend, but Summit’s strategy isn’t going to change. And really, they are right at this point. It is virtually impossible – given that it’s the summer – to change speeds in a real way at this point in the release schedule. Still, I find it endlessly frustrating that a movie that would have been well served by a big sampling will not be seen by many people under 40 until it lands on cable and it gets discovered by an audience that will be blown away by the craftsmanship and cool of the film.
And with that – unless some real news happens – I am done whipping this horse until awards season…
Disney is rather quietly having another great summer (“Up,” “The Proposal,” “G-Force,” “Ponyo”). It looks to me like they also have the most solid holiday lineup, sadly, with Christmas Carol, The Princess and the Frog and Old Dogs.
Despite the solid opening…”Ugly Truth” did not have a good internal multiplier from Friday…especially for a rom-com.
Looks like G-Force killed “Ice Age 3’s” prospect of becoming Fox’s first $200 million domestic grosser since 2007….much like Ice Age took away “Up’s” shot at $300 million.
25,000 per theatre for “In the Loop”!!!!!!
Guess who said this on Friday?
“This weekend’s battle for first will be between Potter and G-Force, which will open huge well over to $30m. The Ugly Truth will be third with a respectable but not great $25m. The Orphan will open to expectations around $10-12m, which is what junky horror normally gets.”
If I were Summit, I’d make sure I had some kind of new Twilight Saga: New Moon trailer/teaser attached to The Hurt Locker for next weekend. Yes, I know the demos are all wrong, but anything to get them in right?
Her Sister’s Keeper, despite being kneecapped by losing theaters week after week, is the exact model of the kind of project that studios should be making in general. $30 million budget, $50 million final gross, everyone goes home happy. Not that everything needs to be a mid-budget drama, but that’s better than everything being a $150 million+ mega-movie that absolutely must open to $75 million or die. Tent poles are supposed to be just that… a few big movies to hold up everything else. But now the studios making nothing BUT tentpoles. I’ve said this before and I’m sure you guys have too, but studios have got to stop budgeting movies to where every release has to break some kind of record in order to turn a profit.
Scott: the film BAND CAMP is attached with a special look at NEW MOON. So the Hurt Locker is just going to have to deal with the word of mouth. Why Renner has not been made fucking Cap already astounds me.
OSS 117 opened on 40 screens but not in L.A.? And what the heck is TVA?
40 in Quebec, I believe… in French. TVA is one of the Quebequa distributor.
The film closed Seattle. Still no word on US distribution.
Cadavra- “OSS 117” is a sequel to a mildly amusing French spy romp that tanked in U.S. theaters a few years back, but was a smash overseas.
And I know this is the wrong thread, but did anyone REALLY think that “Lovely Bones” would world premiere in Toronto?
Considering TIFF’s recent history–“Juno” and “Slumdog” were both flukes since nobody saw their Oscar (high) profile on paper–it’s highly unlikely that any major studio year-end, i.e., awards-coveting, release(s) will premiere in Toronto this September.
That ship has apparently already sailed.
Apparently all that the major studios are willing to risk on Toronto from now on are early-to-mid fall releases (“Rendition,” “Elizabeth 2,” “Ghost Town,” “Nick and Norah,” whoopee!!!!!)
Sorry for the overuse of “apparently” in that last posting.
(If you add an “And” to that last sentence, it might not seem as bad.)
..but I’m dead serious about Toronto.
Studios aren’t using it as their reliable launch pad–and sneak preview base–for their most illustrious year-end Oscar bait any longer.
And last year’s utterly dismal (in every category/division/subdivision) line-up is probably why I still haven’t fully committed to making this my 11th TIFF in a row.
1) Do the next Potter films stand any chance of breaking this current domestic box office plateau? Or have these films gone as high as they can go? I ask that honestly because the Potter films have seemingly hit a wall.
2) It is TO, MM. So it would make sense to open the Lovely Bones there, but it is a Peter Jackson film. So I guess his name alone makes it too big for that film fest, but it should open there. It just seems to work.
Talk about a kneecapping: The UA East Hampton got “The Hurt Locker” ahead of New Jersey but had to drop it when that theater opened 2 prints of the latest Harry Potter.
I agree that “Bones” would be a perfect fit in Toronto, 101.
…in 1999 or 2000 when studios still had a modicum of marketing chutzpah.
But you’re right about Jackson being too “big” a brand-name to risk such an early launch on. That same fate befell Sam Mendes last year when “Revolutionary Road” was inexplicably held back from the fall festivals, despite having completed principal photography at the end of summer ’07 (“Bones” completely p-p early last summer).
The lead character in the “OSS 117” films is a cross between Matt Helm (sheer catnip for the ladies) and Inspector Clouseau (a bumbling idiot reeking of misplaced self-confidence).
The first “OSS” was okay, but I can see why it didn’t make any inroads domestically. Now if it was still 1966 or ’67…..
IO1-
And I’m pretty sure that’s the same reason WB didn’t let Toronto have “The Departed” in 2007….or why “Shutter Island” won’t world premiere there this fall.
On paper, I would’ve bet against Disney opening those three movies to 30+.
Sandra Bullock hadn’t opened a romcom to over 15mil before. And G-Force could have opened to a Monster House/Garfield 21mil. The Hangover is the big success of the summer, but Ethan is right, Disney going 3 for 3 for weekend openings for the summer (I don’t know what Ponyo is), has to be considered impressive.
Having said that, DP, who do you think is having the best summer? Marketing-wise and box office profit-wise — as you’ve mentioned before, the two are not necessarily connected.
There will be at least a half-dozen serious BP hopefuls at TIFF this year, plus some longer shots like The Air Up There, which is Reitman going for it on the Juno sched again.
You have to give Paramount marketing their Star Trek success, Warner Bros the opening of The Hangover, the best Bullock opening ever and Up to Disney, and Fox the 2nd best opening of the summer with Wolverine.
Profitwise, WB wins with Hangover and Potter. Disney is a solid #2 with Up, Proposal, and G-Force.
“OSS” did not tank (and I’d argue it was last year’s funniest film).
Movieman, I absolutely loved the “first” OSS film and have been anxiously awaiting the sequel. (CAIRO did about $400,000, which for a foreign-language film these days is not exactly “tanking.”) But, yeah, I shoulda figured that it was a Quebec release. Grrrrr…
Big thumbs-up to the Arclight for not enforcing their NO ONE ENTERS THE SHOW after it stars bullshit AGAIN this afternoon.
Took in 500 DAYS O’ SUMMER, which is to say I sat in a seat in a room where it just happened to be playing. Yep, crowded as fuck, near capacity, except for the first couple rows. No problem, since they’re far enough back and usually I have decent luck down there and don’t have to SIT NEXT TO ANYONE. Well, imagine my delight when the studio logos come up and some dude saunters in and sits next to me, eating his MUSTARD-DRENCHED BAGUETTE with all the decorum of a horse at a trough.
Like, how do you people SIT NEXT TO other motherfuckers and watch a movie? Every time they slurp their drink, it takes you out of the movie. Every fold of the leg, every check of the watch, every bored sigh, every text, every tapping of the foot for no reason — TOTAL DISTRACTION.
And honestly, the dude was fine, just being a normal moviegoer, but it’s such a weird invasion of space to be FORCED to sit next to someone you didn’t go there with, so I spread out at a certain point, move down a few seats, of course the movie already destroyed because I just spent 40 minutes bristling every time this rod played with his wrapper….
So finally I get into the movie and start getting swept up, then, AS ALWAYS FUCKING HAPPENS AT THE ARCLIGHT WHERE THEY’RE SUPPOSED TO MONITOR THIS THEATER HOPPING SHIT, some shaved-head dude (????) sneaks in at the FUCKING 70 MINUTE MARK and sits two seats away, all grumbly and irritable and thuggish, breathing heavy out of his nose and not LAUGHING AT ANYTHING, clearly just saw some other shit and wanted to GET HIS MONEY’S WORTH by sampling THE LAST 21 FUCKING MINUTES OF A MOVIE WHERE HE COULDN’T POSSIBLY KNOW WHAT THE FUCK WAS GOING ON.
HENCE: MY DAY RUINED, ME ANGRY, ARCLIGHT NOT DOING THEIR GODDAMN FUCKING JOB. I’m all pissed and ready to go on a FUCKING RAMPAGE and this meathead cockslapper was probably like “HUH HUH HUH THAT MOVIE SUCKED GOOD THING I DIDN’T PAY.”
ARCLIGHT EMPLOYEES, DO YOUR MOTHERFUCKING JOB, and ANYONE who theater hops and sneaks into an IN-PROGRESS MOVIE shouldn’t just be arrested, they should be FUCKING EXECUTED.
I’ve complained about this shit ALL THE FUCKING TIME at the “MOVIE LOVER’S PARADISE,” and all I get are an apology and MAYBE some free passes, but there are ALWAYS MOTHERFUCKERS SNEAKING AROUND just like any old Pacific, which is UNACCEPTABLE.
PEOPLE WHO THEATER HOP ARE HUMAN GARBAGE and on par with RAPISTS.
FUCK YOU WORLD.
You must attract these people because I never have this problem.
Or maybe I’m just observant.
Or maybe you go with a pack of friends and are insulated from this bullshit. Or you sit dead center with enough people around you that you don’t have to be hypersensitive to it all.
But I see 60-70% of movies alone, sort of by choice because seeing a movie needn’t be a collectivist activity and I like to see EVERYTHING and on my timetable… so I generally seek out seats that are “up front” or “away from the crowd.”
And a fair percentage of the time, this means I have whole rows to myself and enjoy the movie as if I’m in my own living room, with nary a distraction. But unfortunately those sections of a theater are also the hot spot for THEATER HOPPERS WHO COME IN MID-MOVIE to play WHITMAN’S SAMPLER.
“Hey, the Hilary Duff movie just ended… we paid ten bucks… let’s go sneak into There Will Be Blood.” Even though it’s been running for 140 MINUTES and they have NO IDEA WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BE GOING ON, heh, just sneak right in and plop down next to some dude who’s all invested in it.
People are fucking garbage. The animal kingdom is more enlightened than humans, and if GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL, it can’t come a moment too soon… we’re a piece of shit as a fucking species.
Dave: The Air Up There is that Kevin Bacon-scouts-basketball-player-in-Africa movie. I think the Reitman is called Up in the Air.
Damn, I was hoping they were going to show the Kevin Bacon basketball movie at TIFF. No I guess I won’t be going.
i hear complaints like lex’s all the time. being ‘forced’ to sit next to people in a movie theater.
I thought part of the theatrical experience was seeing a movie with an audience.
I get the complaints about cell phones and texting. i can’t stand it when someone whips out a cell phone during a movie and starts texting. Half the audience has become rude (or has always been rude and now own cell phones). The other half has become agoraphobic.
And they think 3-D is going to fix this?
anghus, there’s a difference between being communal and mindlessly violating somebody’s personal space. Most people with manners would know that you don’t just sit down AGAINST another stranger’s seat unless you absolutely, positively have to do so. A buffer of at least one or two empty seats is just simple decorum.
When I went to Harry Potter the other week back, a woman came in at the five minute mark and took the seat right next to mine for no apparent reason, which was a problem because I had my drink in that armrest and I couldn’t move to the other armrest because the friend I came with had his drink there. I can’t stand disturbing another moviegoer, so I didn’t touch the soda until she got up and moved to a different row fifteen minutes later (which was another disturbance on her part).
I’m gonna agree with Lex on two points:
1.) Theater-hopping is stupid, annoying, and pointless, and anyone who does it is trash. (Also, I live in Boston, but I visit L.A. once a year, and have been to the ArcLight a few times – there have been latecomers admitted each time, including into the Cinerama Dome with its special entrance that you’d think would allow for more vigilance.)
2.) Orphan is fucking awesome.
“Apparently all that the major studios are willing to risk on Toronto from now on are early-to-mid fall releases (“Rendition,” “Elizabeth 2,” “Ghost Town,” “Nick and Norah,” whoopee!!!!!)”
I won’t say TO has no more BP nominees on its slate, but from a Torontonians perspective, it has gone down.
Part of the reason why is that neither the the festival nor the studios need TO anymore. From a festival financial perspective, a mid-tier film with mid-tier stars will still get a Gala presentation at Roy Thomson Hall.
That mediocre Ricky Gervais crap that came out last year if I recall got a Gala.
If people are willing to spend top dollar for a Gala ticket on this rubbish, why waste the promo budget on a film like The Departed which clearly does not need it?
Contrary to its rep, TO is a star struck town. You will hear many stars say they love TO because people leave them alone. Yes, because TO worships Hollywood stars. They have too much respect for them. In LA a Hollywood star may get yelled at. P Hilton might get called a “slut”. In TO, they are treated as royalty and act as such.
That is part of the reason more mid-tier fall releases come to TO. If a big lavish launch for Nick and Norah in TO will draw all kinds of viewers (hey, Michael Cera made it big!) why go bigger and more expensive?. If he will draw the crowds, why waste time trying to get Nicol Kidman etc. who will be more work and money?
They also try to get films where they know the stars will come and appear at corporate sponsored parties. That is partially how the big parties get funded at TO. Company XYZ says they will underwrite the lavish party for film ABC if the stars will mingle with their clients afterwards. Toronto Star had a huge article on that a few years back when Men of Honour came here.
Many people have noticed this decline in the past decade. When I had my honeymoon in England in 2005 during TIFF time I listened to Brit radio every night and Toronto was not mentioned once. Not on TV, not on radio.
Just a few thoughts.
“If he will draw the crowds, why waste time trying to get Nicol Kidman etc. who will be more work and money? ”
I meant Nicole Kidman. Love that girl.
I actually thought Ghost Town from last year was surprisingly good and funny. Its’ greatest flaw was that it was made in the US instead of the UK, where it should have been.
That may be true Nicol, but what film fests DO matter that much anymore? I guess Sundance and Cannes, but after those big hitters I can’t really think of any that mean much to studios, independents, or audiences. Yes, they still perform an important function for the artform, but as far as the business end? I just don’t think they mean much at all these days. 5-10 years ago, I know some indie filmmakers that were able to generate sales at the 2nd tier of festivals, but nowadays forget about it. They’re a great place to share your film with (usually) an intelligent audience, but beyond that you can’t expect much else. Again, on the business side, they mean next to nothing these days.
Martin,
I think part of the problem is a few festivals morphed into a lot of festivals, which morphed into a festival circuit which became its own cottage industry. As a result, the festivals got watered down with bad product and the best films had too many places to go depending on title, genre and expectations.
Jeff,
If you like Ghost Town, fine. It’s certainly not an offensive film in any way and is reasonably acted. But it is not a film that should have a Gala at a supposed world renowned festival.
That’s reasonable. It’s a small, innocuous movie with no significant artistic or commercial value.
Nicol, regardless of the reason, it’s a “cottage industry” that doesn’t mean much in the actual film industry it supposedly supports. I see most of these festivals as VERY localized events, that are certainly enjoyable to attend, but mean very little outside of the area that they play in. I think of ~ a decade ago when there was a solid list of 5 or so festivals that actually meant something to the indie film scene and to the studios. Now, as I said, Sundance and Cannes, and the rest are their own local event that mean something in the local papers, but nationally just don’t register more than a blip. And you can say that it’s because the “circuit” has watered them down, but I think it’s a bigger issue to do with where the film industry is these days. It’s really about big hollywood marketing dollars, more so than ever. Word of mouth and that sort of thing is getting more and more lost in the shuffle of the industry’s highly productive sales force.
We had this discussion during Cannes. When discussing what film festivals “matter” you have to take into considering from whose perspective you’re taking it from. TIFF is probably quite important to Canada and the US, but outside of that it might as well be a festival in some backwater province in Saskatchewan.
All these horror tales of cinema-going experience continue to fathom belief.
Although I tend to sit in the back row if I can. If I’m by myself it’s so I don’t feel as bad if I have to get up or if my legs get sore and I need to cross/uncross/etc. Plus it means no chance of people putting their feet up on my seat or kicking it or something.
This is gonna be important so pull up a chair and break out your notebooks. Yes, ALL of you, even you, Poland, McDouche and Big Perm:
I was watching TV and guess what comes on SHOW2 at 3am? BASKETBALL DIARIES. Anyone seen this prize lately? Holy shit, not that I wasn’t already painfully aware of this, but LEONARDO DICAPRIO and MARK WAHLBERG are not only in this movie FROM 1995, they are also pretty precisely MY AGE.
So, like, when these two awesome gods were filming this, I was probably wrapping up my last semester or two at the University of **** 2,400 miles from the city of Los Angeles.
I can’t even comprehend what it must be like to GROW UP IN LOS ANGELES OR NEW YORK with some access to the Entertainment Industry. Fuck, I’ve lived here for 14 years now, and it’s STILL supernatural to me, as it’s so wholly removed from me sitting in a boiler room and scanning frame rates.
But can you imagine being IN SAG, being in movies, or even MAKING MORE THAN 50K as a fucking 22 year old? FUCKING FUCK. I’m sitting here making these little jerkoff YouTube clips and acting like I want to be Richard Roeper, but I WANT NOTHING LESS TO BE THE BIGGEST STAR IN THE FUCKING WORLD, a name spoken the WORLD OVER like John Lennon or MARK WAHLBERG.
I WANT TO FUCKING ACT. Obviously I’m OLD AS FUCK and if you watch my DOZENS of YouTube vids, you’ll see I’m a once-passable looking Baldwin clone with a decade of beer bloat that the Russian trainer from ROCKY IV couldn’t exercise off my chin and upper body.
So it’s a lost cause, whatever, I’d be okay with being a PAUL GIAMATTI or the New Millennium’s version of DAN HEDAYA or DANIEL BALDWIN, whatever, but still ISN’T IT DISPIRITING that some people ARE FAMOUS WHEN THEY ARE YOUNG, and YOU are not?
HOW COULD AAAAAAAAANYONE want to be ANNYTHING BUT FAMOUS?
Being Ordinary, being UNFAMOUS, is the WORST PUNISHMENT ON FUCKING EARTH.
I wanted to be in movies since 1981 when I’d write FAKE SCREENPLAYS and try to write letters to famous actors and directors, but I lived a continent away from Los Angeles and didn’t have stage parents.
And once I got here at age 22, I was just on the cusp of being TOO OLD TO BREAK IN, since I moved here without a single friend or contact, just loaded up the broken down K CAR and drove out and lived in a fleabag for months on end til I got some bullshit post job… and to stay afloat, I’ve never been able to NOT work such a job.
MEANWHILE OTHER GUYS MY AGE had family in the BIZ or got in when they were kids. Too late to be bitter about that, but DEPRESSING AS FUCK, SUICIDALLY DEPRESSING IN FACT, to think that when I was UNLOADING TRUCKS and CLEANING BATHROOMS in 1994, Mark Wahlberg was a famous rapper model and fucking HOT CHICKS on sheer force of his fame.
Yeah I’m not scrubbing urinals anymore, but isn’t there REALLY any difference between a guy who makes 10K shoveling shit and a guy who makes 100K at Apple? Neither one of them is fucking Scarlett Johansson, so their lives ARE EQUALLY MEANINGLESS.
Poland OWNS and has been a mensch about offering me opportunities and is COOL AS FUCK and clearly has my back, but in the end what I really want is for one of you pricks to GET ME A FUCKING AGENT.
MARTIN S, GET ON IT.
My hair’s got about two years left before I look like Elias Koteas and I need to FUCK FAMOUS WOMEN.
ANYTHING ELSE IS A LIE.
I WISH IT WAS 1991 and I would NEVER HAVE GONE TO COLLEGE, I’d have driven the fuck out here, possed up in some 21-roommate flophouse and actually AUDITIONED FOR SHIT, not come out here going the WHITE COLLAR ROUTE.
And speaking of that, I’d like to give MEGAN FOX a “WHITE COLLAR” if u know what I mean
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
It’s like constantly hitting your head against a brick wall. Except instead of headbutting a wall it’s driving a high-powered automobile into a reinforced brick wall.
With a reinforced head.
It’s the same pattern every time. Lex goes on a rant, then he goes on five rants, then he goes on ten drunken late-night rants bemoaning his fate to the point that DP erases his posts and wags his finger. Then Lex fades away for a few days like a craven dog and then the cycle starts all over again. Nothing ever changes.