Weekend Estimates by Klady – Aliens Beat GI Joe
(Chart Error Corrected, 12:03p)
Rollercoaster ride for Paramount. Last weekend, they won the battle of Joe. This weekend, they get a reasonable drop for a film like this but have to watch a $30 million film with good effects – but virtually the opposite philosophy of the stunt-to-idea ratio – open to roughly 67% of what they opened Joe to… a film that cost at least 6 times what D9 cost. Joe is now running slightly ahead of Terminator Salvation‘s 2nd weekend… but it opened $12m stronger and is now, at the end of Weekend 2, about $8 million ahead of TS.
As for D9, again, smart marketing combined with the Peter Jackson commodity and a visual package that has a lot of bang for the buck. The machine catching the missile at the end – which is a sad giveaway to one of the film’s best moments – is an instant winner… and at that point, it doesn’t mater what the film cost.
Julie & Julia had a reasonable drop… not great, not terrible… like everything about the film’s commercial journey so far. $80 million is not an unreasonable expectation of the final numbers, though the challenge of holding the screens to get there will increase in another week or two.
Another 60%+ drop in your third weekend is a little devastating, no? Funny People is now looking at about $55m max domestically… which will cover a little more than half of Universal’s marketing costs on the film. It was a risk that the studio was right to take. Apatow’s personal film track record was strong enough and Sandler added to the upside. But it was The Sad Clown Film that could not. If it bends, It’s funny… but cancer broke it. Spanglish, which was visited upon Sony, has now been visited upon Universal. Meanwhile, for Mr. Sandler, it seems to me that he needs to rip the tape off of his aspirations and do a hard drama with humor, not a soft one that wants us to love the people in it for being so comfortable that it hurts. Time to put a call in to Fincher.
Ponyo didn’t arrive with a big number, but it was a big number for Miyazaki in America and his previous high of $10.1 million for Spirited Away looks to be within range for this one.
Tranny 2 continues to crawl towards its goal of $400m… getting closer. Ice Age 3 is going to come up just short of $200m domestic while it continues to build on its record international animated gross – also #1 of any film this summer – and still aspires to becoming the #3 all-time animated film behind Shrek 2 and Finding Nemo.
(500) Days of Summer hold strong and continues to rack up strong indie-minded numbers. In The Loop becomes IFC’s second million dollar movie of 2009 in theatrical, rolling out on a faster track than any IFC film in a while and looking like it will top the distributor’s strongest titles of the last two years, Summer Hours, Gamorrah, and Che’ in theatrical. Sony Classics did a really nice job getting the heat going in the niche market for It Might Get Loud.
And, sadly, The Hurt Locker is done theatrically. The instant classic crossed the $10 million barrier this weekend, but dropped nearly in half as it also started losing screens. No real surprise here. And $15m now seems unlikely. $13.5m seems about the best it can do. The team at Summit did very, very well in executing the strategy that they chose. But I will, unfortunately, live for many years with the bug up my buttocks that they chose the wrong strategy. They believed in it as an arthouse film and did a solid job delivering on the arthouse film. But it is more than an arthouse film.
And now we will find out whether Summit is prepared to have their first Oscar nominee. I worry that they will rely on the 10 slots to get the film in, simply on the strength of the film. Maybe that will work. Maybe it won’t. Obviously, I have a vested interest in the awards season, in that Summit will or will not buy ads on MCN. But, given how tough I have been on them, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them spend, but spend elsewhere. And that’s fine. But more than box office, this film not getting an Oscar slot, when it will surely be one of the critics’ Top 10 for the year and – if the budget and funding sources qualify it – the likely Indie Spirit winner, would be a shame. Bigelow deserves serious, serous consideration by DGA. Renner will likely get support from at least one major critics group for an acting nod. Mark Boal’s screenplay seems to be the one Oscar lock, with the 10 nominees there. But Picture… deserved.
Umm, the chart doesn’t match the headline. You have seriously got to get a better copy editmonkey, or pay them more bananas.
All the monkeys are traveling this weekend, thanks.
“..Zimmer will likely get support from at least one major critics group for an acting nod…”
You meant “Renner,” right?
Looks like “Hustle and Flow” will hold on to the ParVantage opening record…
“Ugly Truth” is the highest grossing R-rated rom-com since “Sex and the City…” and among original screenplays is the highest grossing since…”Knocked Up.” I guess there’s no such thing as bad publicity for Heigl…sigh
The bad situation for indies gets even worse…In the Loop will be lucky to get to 3 million. Adam, Paper Heart, Thirst, Cold Souls, and It Might Get Loud will be lucky to get to 1 million=(
Unless I’m reading your comments incorrectly, Hurt Locker won’t factor into the Indie Spirits at all this year. For reasons only Summit can answer, it was submitted for last year’s Indie Spirit awards and Renner and Mackie were both nominated (and lost) in their respective categories. I attended one of the two LA-screenings held for voting members in January and there were less than 100 people there which could help explain why neither actor won. It would have won this year in a walk but sadly, it’s a non-issue.
@EthanG: “In the Loop” was released VOD prior to theatrical, hence AMC and Regal will not play it. “Adam” and “Paper Heart” look to be stuck in the arthouse ghetto.
Strangely enough “Paper Heart” expanded to Philadelphia-area megaplexes but not New York-area megaplexes.
Chucky, where do you get all this info?
Really? I knew the VOD release was a factor, but I didn’t know it would result in a blackball from the multiplexes…wow!
Loved seeing character actor Charles Napier in “The Goods” Murdock lives!
Actually Chucky, not quite right. In the Loop opened theatrically on the 24th and didn’t go to VOD until the 29th. Which got it some theaters it wouldn’t have otherwise been able to play if it had gone VOD day-and-date. It’s also why IFC opened in like 5 markets on opening weekend instead of just in NYC like they normally do.
Something I mentioned elsewhere in relation to the GI Joe vs. D9 comparisons. The irony is that the $30 million costing District 9 will end up being far more profitable than a $145 million budgeted Halo movie ever would have. Jackson and Blomkamp need to profusely thank Universal and Fox for their dumping of said Halo project. I’d suppose this could be a ‘teachable moment’, but I doubt that studios will learn anything from this.
@errol: I flip-flopped in the earlier comment — thanks for catching it.
@EathanG: The ban by AMC and Regal is corporate policy set in Kansas City and Knoxville.
@jeffmcm: Ever heard of Hollywood.com?
Very interesting, Dignan. Argh.
Love Chuck Napier, Levrock. He was in one of my nightmare movies as a screenwriter and hanging with him, listening to stories, was one of the few pleasures of that experience.
1. The Hurt Locker is good…but hurt by lack of stars. I would say it is also hurt by being overrated but it isn’t even that well known. I think sadly, action crowds were leery of getting a PC film that preached to them and art house crowds only wanted and evil Amerikkka film. It is neither. Wasn’t Colin Farrell orignally supposed to play Renner’s role? What difference could that have made to budget vs. box office?
2. Funny People: I can’t see how this comes out as a win for Apatow or Sandler. Although I see it hurting the former more than the latter. People will accept a Sandler film that has him doing drama that under-performs. It’s expected for a comedian. For Apatow, 40 Year Old Virgin is only 4 years old…yet it seems like him and Rogen et al have been around forever. Too many producer credits on mediocre films. Talented to be sure…but seems to have jumped the shark. Tired of reading about him and his crews. Overexposed. Ready for Farrelly Bros comeback.
3. Heigel seems like a rancid human being while McAdams seems really sweet. However, I have a far easier time accepting the notion of Heigel as a superstar before McAdams. McAdams still seems like a character actress who sometimes gets roles that click. Heigel has a formula and a persona that can be marketed.
4. Stunned that Ice Age is as big a hit as it is. I have seen none of them. I am glad Transformers is huge. Sick of the Michael Bay bashing. Too cliche. Too formula.
That’s it. That’s all.
Chucky,
(A) Does hollywood.com break down studio releases in terms of city-by-city and suburb-by-suburb release patterns?
(B) And if so, why on Earth would they do that?
Nicol, Michael Bay bashing may be trendy, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t also (completely, thoroughly) merited. It’s a terrible, audience-insulting, should-be-getting-laughed-out-of-multiplexes movie.
And:
“art house crowds only wanted and evil Amerikkka film.”
Speaking of ‘Too cliche. Too formula”…
“It’s a terrible, audience-insulting, should-be-getting-laughed-out-of-multiplexes movie.” Yeah, this coming from you. Really does not mean that much. Go watch a horror film from this decade. Most of those are not even close to terrible, insulting of their audience, or should be ran out of theaters. Nah. Not at all. Oh yeah, you hated Star Trek. So what the fuck do you know? I’m with the Canuck Conservative on this one.
Thanks, IO,
The Bay bashing has just gone on too long and is a collossal overstatement.
I am tired of people loving the most mediocre piece of crap that comes down the pike saying Bay is a hack. People can feel free to not like his films but the “hack” stuff is ridiculous.
Do people actually know what it takes to construce an action sequence like that?
Obviously not!
Starting here and now…let’s reverse the trend of the Bay bashing!
Finally saw Funny People today, and really liked it — to a large degree, for reasons that other people seem to dislike it. Go figure. Yeah, it’s sprawling and shapeless. Again, that’s what I liked about it: It wasn’t neat.
Oh, and Nicol: As far as Bay goes, I still say Pearl Harbor was under-rated.
http://www.movingpictureshow.com/archives/mpsPearlHarbor.htm
Say what you will, but people will remember robot-scrotum more than most cinematic scenes this summer.
I for one don’t know how anyone went into Transformers 2 expecting something other than what they got.
Nicol, it’s all relative. Yes, Michael Bay can stage and shoot an amazing action sequence. And yes, that’s why those who did like the Transformers movies enjoyed about them – the sheer, massive spectacle.
But please don’t pretend like he has anything in the way of command (or interest) in characters or narrative. So if you think he’s been treated unfairly in terms of people not recognizing his skills, fine.
BUT, when you also consider that his stupid movie is just short of $400 million in the U.S. market, I think bashing him is a suitable corrective.
Also, IOI? You’re an idiot. Come back when you learn how to properly punctuate a sentence.
Poor “A Perfect Getaway.” Should’ve been released in February or March. A kind of passably entertaining, twist-laden (unless you’ve seen a movie before) thriller that I have to admit I totally enjoyed from ridiculous beginning to ludicrous end.
And yesterday at “District 9,” people laughed at the “Legion” trailer, groaned at the “Saw VI” teaser, but really went nuts – again – for the “Zombieland” trailer. Every time I’ve seen that run in front of an audience, people LOOOOVE it. I can’t wait to see it – especially because I finally caught up with Harrelson’s perf in “The Walker” and was like, “Whoa!”
“Meanwhile, for Mr. Sandler, it seems to me that he needs to rip the tape off of his aspirations and do a hard drama with humor, not a soft one that wants us to love the people in it for being so comfortable that it hurts.”
Does Sandler have any history of “good” dramatic acting on his resume? I really haven’t seen (m)any of his films — only Happy Gilmore that I recall.
I did, however, see Doing Time On Maple Drive on its original 1992 broadcast, so even years later I wasn’t surprised at seeing Jim Carrey do more dramatic roles.
Bay just bores me…why can’t the top grossing film of the year be directed by Uwe Boll…now THAT would be something.
Re: A Perfect Getaway – This is the third terrific B movie that hasn’t really caught on this summer (after Drag Me to Hell and Orphan).
I’ve skipped all the big action blockbusters (unless you count Public Enemies), but these three definitely delivered in the popcorn department. Why oh why isn’t Timothy Olyphant a bigger star?
in FUNNY PEOPLE it comes down to the cat scene … early in the film we see Leo’s youtube kitten video which he uses as viral marketing to draw viewers to his other work … later this scene in mirrored at Leslie Mann’s house when she and Rogen and Sandler are watching the video of her daughter singing from the play Cats. Rogen (and the audience) is visibly affected however Sandler is checking his cell phone texts … everything about his character and why he won’t end up with Mann is said in that scene
The Legion trailer does look horrible. A big budget special effects extravaganza about the battle for the world…set in a small diner. How epic!
Zombieland looks so awesome. I thought I had my fill of zombies and especially zombie comedies, but apparently not.
The Cats song in Funny People was supposed to be affecting? If so, the movie didn’t give me a reason to think that. If you have to have seen Cats to get the emotional heft of the scene, then the scene doesn’t work.
It was clear that Sandler’s reaction was not what Mann was hoping for, but as I read it his mistake was apparently not putting enough effort into placating her. I wasn’t really on her side there (or at all… she was a pretty lousy person when we got to know her. She and Sandler kind of deserved each other).
BOX OFFICE GURUS — Got a wager going with an office mate. How much do you guys think D9 will gross worldwide when all is said and done? Just theatrical.
More than THE GOODS?
DP (and others), curious about continuing your thoughts on Joe vs Terminator. I haven’t seen both, but you had mentioned earlier on that $50M was a slam dunk for Joe. I am curious why Joe had a better opening then Terminator? As you say, quality does not factor into opening, it is all about marketing. But I would have thought the Terminator name, Batman, and cool-looking trailers would have allowed Terminator a better opening then it did (even minus Arnie). Or did everyone see through that marketing campaign? Or perhaps the kids were out in full force for Joe vs Terminator. Granted, Terminator had a 2.9 multiple opening, which in today’s terms isn’t horrible. Certainly from a perception standpoint, I personnally was more interested in Terminator, but would like to see both.
I find it interesting the expectations vs analysis. I wonder if since $42open/$125DM for Terminator is seen as a disappointment, would say $52open/$125DM be seen in a more respectable light?
Continuing thoughts…
I guess what can be confusing is the assignment of success on opening in regards to Terminator $40M being a relative disappointment; compared to Joe, where $40M would probably have been seen as a success (and where $50M seemed like an overwhelming success).
I think the reason why one is deemed a success and the other a failure is based on expectations. Both are super expensive, but one was tagged DOA, while the other was a continuation of a supremely successful franchise. The math is the same, but the openings are judged on perception. Countless explanations can be given as to WHY Terminator didn’t open (McG fanboy hatred, no Arnie, Bale is NOT a movie opener, McG and McG), but only one reason for Joe — 15 year olds want to have fun at the movies. That’s how I see it anyways. No one STILL doesn’t know anything.