By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
The Numbers On Ho Ho Dough
Only 14 Christmas movies in history have grossed more than $50 million domestic. Only one (Christmas Vacation) opened in December… and that was December 1. One other, The Nightmare Before Christmas, opened in October, presumably selling “nightmare” before “Christmas.”
The first film to successfully break the “open it the week before Thanksgiving” rule to great success was Disney’s The Santa Clause, which opened on November 11 to $19.3 million and did 7.5 times that number ($144.8m) by the time it died shortly after New Years, as all these movies do. That result had a lot to do with how well-liked that particular movie was… but there was also an understanding that Christmas titles could start early than previously traditional.
Santa Clause 2 opened on November 1, push this even further, and did 4.8x opening. Santa Clause 3 opened Nov 3 and did 4.33x opening. Elf opened on Nov 7 and did 5.57x opening. The Polar Express opened Nov 10 and did 7.75x opening.
There are still some success stories opening later. Bad Santa, Christmas With The Cranks, and last year’s Four Christmases all opened right on top of Thanksgiving and did well. But all three films also skewed a bit older than most other X-mas films.
Interestingly, the worst multiple for a Christmas film that would gross over $50 million domestic was Four Christmases‘ 3.87x… maybe they would have liked to have opened earlier, in retrospect.
So whatever does happen with A Christmas Carol this weekend, it’s not too early to open it. And you can bet on the final domestic gross being somewhere between 4x opening and 6x opening.
It might not seem so ridiculous to the majority of the country that’s already seen plenty of white stuff fall to the ground but when it’s sunny, 72 and still some Halloween candy left, the concept of opening a Christmas film seems totally asinine.
I’m kinda curious to see it but I still fall in the camp of it being too early to think about Christmas now and #2, the short TV spots I’ve been seeing look less appealing that the old Mr Magoo version I’d see some random Saturday afternoon.
If it doesn’t open, or perform, who’s gonna get the brunt force of the blame? The economy? Too soon in the season? Jim Carey for not being a draw? Inflated 3D IMAX cost? If it blows up, who or what is gonna get mad dap?
“It might not seem so ridiculous to the majority of the country that’s already seen plenty of white stuff fall to the ground but when it’s sunny, 72 and still some Halloween candy left, the concept of opening a Christmas film seems totally asinine.”
Polar Express is the model for A Christmas Carol, and that opened on November 2 if i remember. Polar opened soft, gathered steam as the holidays approached (pun not intended) and was buttressed by a long IMAX run.
I’m sure that the plan is for Carol to go the same route, EXCEPT that Polar didn’t have much competition for those all-important IMAX specs five years ago. It must be a concern for Disney that Avatar is going to gobble up all the IMAX screens before a single present has been unwrapped.
The Polar Express opened over the second weekend in November, after The Incredibles kicked off the month. Polar Express only opened to $26 million, but had long legs and eventually crawled to around $162 million. Beowulf opened over the same weekend in 2007, opening to about $27 million, but ending up with only $70 million.