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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

The Numbers On Ho Ho Dough

Only 14 Christmas movies in history have grossed more than $50 million domestic. Only one (Christmas Vacation) opened in December… and that was December 1. One other, The Nightmare Before Christmas, opened in October, presumably selling “nightmare” before “Christmas.”
The first film to successfully break the “open it the week before Thanksgiving” rule to great success was Disney’s The Santa Clause, which opened on November 11 to $19.3 million and did 7.5 times that number ($144.8m) by the time it died shortly after New Years, as all these movies do. That result had a lot to do with how well-liked that particular movie was… but there was also an understanding that Christmas titles could start early than previously traditional.
Santa Clause 2 opened on November 1, push this even further, and did 4.8x opening. Santa Clause 3 opened Nov 3 and did 4.33x opening. Elf opened on Nov 7 and did 5.57x opening. The Polar Express opened Nov 10 and did 7.75x opening.
There are still some success stories opening later. Bad Santa, Christmas With The Cranks, and last year’s Four Christmases all opened right on top of Thanksgiving and did well. But all three films also skewed a bit older than most other X-mas films.
Interestingly, the worst multiple for a Christmas film that would gross over $50 million domestic was Four Christmases‘ 3.87x… maybe they would have liked to have opened earlier, in retrospect.
So whatever does happen with A Christmas Carol this weekend, it’s not too early to open it. And you can bet on the final domestic gross being somewhere between 4x opening and 6x opening.

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3 Responses to “The Numbers On Ho Ho Dough”

  1. Triple Option says:

    It might not seem so ridiculous to the majority of the country that’s already seen plenty of white stuff fall to the ground but when it’s sunny, 72 and still some Halloween candy left, the concept of opening a Christmas film seems totally asinine.
    I’m kinda curious to see it but I still fall in the camp of it being too early to think about Christmas now and #2, the short TV spots I’ve been seeing look less appealing that the old Mr Magoo version I’d see some random Saturday afternoon.
    If it doesn’t open, or perform, who’s gonna get the brunt force of the blame? The economy? Too soon in the season? Jim Carey for not being a draw? Inflated 3D IMAX cost? If it blows up, who or what is gonna get mad dap?

  2. Dr Wally says:

    “It might not seem so ridiculous to the majority of the country that’s already seen plenty of white stuff fall to the ground but when it’s sunny, 72 and still some Halloween candy left, the concept of opening a Christmas film seems totally asinine.”
    Polar Express is the model for A Christmas Carol, and that opened on November 2 if i remember. Polar opened soft, gathered steam as the holidays approached (pun not intended) and was buttressed by a long IMAX run.
    I’m sure that the plan is for Carol to go the same route, EXCEPT that Polar didn’t have much competition for those all-important IMAX specs five years ago. It must be a concern for Disney that Avatar is going to gobble up all the IMAX screens before a single present has been unwrapped.

  3. The Polar Express opened over the second weekend in November, after The Incredibles kicked off the month. Polar Express only opened to $26 million, but had long legs and eventually crawled to around $162 million. Beowulf opened over the same weekend in 2007, opening to about $27 million, but ending up with only $70 million.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon