By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Box Office Hell for Christmas 3-Day… 25-27
(updated with BO Guru, 12;12p Thursday)
You can see how wild the guessing is getting with so many big releases arriving at the same time…
April 25, 2024
Box Office
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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?
So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.
And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.
There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.
I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.
So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.
But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”
My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher
“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.
~ David Simon
I think Coming Soon has the right idea for Sherlock and It’s Complicated, compared to Prophets.
HOLMES, 90 by Monday, done. There is no doubt.
I was browsing the Avatar posts on twitter earlier. Women are really digging it. I guess I should not be surprised by this, given it’s Cameron’s sci-fi Titanic.
I think everyone’s too high for Sherlock Holmes. It’s Guy Ritchie after all. Snatch made $30 million total domestic and it’s his highest grossing picture.
Don’t underestimate the Chipmunk marketing machine.
Just flip the numbers, at least for Christmas Day.
In the hit counts on my new reviews, “Nine” is in front, “Sherlock” second. May be my headline:
Mark it down by 5.5555556%
Maybe because people have already decided whether or not they want to see Sherlock, but need more information about Nine.
According to deadline.com, Alvin is #1 with Avatar in second place. But as is so often the case of “she whose name shall not be spoken”, the headline misses the bigger story. It isn’t that Alvin is 1, it is that, according to the site, Avatar did $16m on Wednesday. That is three days in a row with barely a nudge of a drop. Seems that Cameron has done it again: as Aladdin says, the twitters on the Avatar site show that women are really connecting with it. And as I have always maintained ever since I read Alfred Hitchcock say it… a woman always decides what picture a man is going to see.
Somehow I’m thinking that “Holmes” will only come in at number 4 on Xmas Day, with “Avatar,” “Alvin” and “Complicated” leading the pack.
More interesting anecdotal data:
As further proof–if any was really needed at this point–that Lionsgate dropped the ball on “Precious” by staggering its release to a ridiculous degree. It finally hit my hometown last Friday and is already down to–count ’em–2 shows per day, sharing a screen with “Xmas Carol.” And “Invictus” continues to lose whatever Oscar steam it may have had coming out of the gate. My local theater is only showing it once a day as of 12/25. It’s sharing a screen with “The Blind Side” which could still play a full performance slate if there was any room left in the inn.
“Nine” is going to drop dead in wide release.
“Air” will continue to skew upscale (shades of “Michael Clayton” and “Syriana”), and never really make a dent with the great, unwashed masses who will handily choose Streep over Clooney this season when they’re seeking out an “adult” alternative.
(“Morgans,” of course, is already dead.)
n fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see “Air” and “Blind Side” running neck-and-neck over the holidays.
what the hell is wrong with the forecasters? they really think Sherlock Holmes is going to beat Alvin and the Chipmunks? not a chance in hell.
Alvin came in with nearly 19m yesterday. That’s huge.
Pope… the Nikki thing is a press release by the movie ticket preseller… as I keep reminding, not a very good way to estimate numbers.
Roger… that’s brutal and funny. But you know, Urbana-Champaign would never be the same if Penelope, Marion, Sophia, Kate, and DDL showed up for the Sunday showing at EbertFest. Rob Marshall could be overlooked.
My call: Alvin, “Avatar”, Sherlock.
Anyone who resorts to name-checking and Academy Awards deserves an Asbo. (Anti-Social Behaviour Order, for those who don’t read the Brit press.)
@movieman: “Precious” is caught in product flow — “The Blind Side” too.
Alvin will probably surpass “Princess and the Frog” by Saturday and probably cost way less to make. Ouch.
“The Blind Side” will probably end the weekend as the #4 film of all time that dramatizes a real-life event, behind just Titanic, The Passion of the Christ, and Pearl Harbor, which it’ll pass eventually.
$500 million worldwide for “Avatar” by the end of the weekend?
Regardless what Alvin does, no way it cost less than Princess and the Frog. Princess is mostly traditionally animation, whereas Alvin has tons of CG.
Chucky in Jersey is autistic.
And he has some kind of job in marketing which has convinced him that he’s an expert.
Oh yeah, and…
Holy shit, Ebert!
I think some people missed it, but at least the other day Chucky admitted to actually going to the movies (!)…
…to see “Everybody’s Fine.”
Which means he did the research (as he always does), and deduced that it was the one movie worth seeing this entire season. I can’t believe they didn’t name-check De Niro or refer to his Oscars in the promotional materials.
Though it being Chucky, the *selling point* was probably that there were practically no trailers or spots in the first place.
So, hope everyone follows THE C.I.J.’s lead this weekend and skips Up in the Air, Nine, Avatar, Holmes and anything else, to go watch De Niro have treacly INTERACTIVE IMAGINED CONVERSATIONS with dream versions of his kids as small children for most of the runtime, simply because there was no name-checking in the trailer.
BLAAAAM! The phrase that pays!
Jason, as far as I know ‘Princess’ wasn’t animated in Korea.
Chipmunks could very well upset “Holmes” as Robert Downey Jr. is still largely unproven as a movie star. This role though could go either way. It could be this year’s “Night at the Museum” or it could be another “Pink Panther”.
Put me down for an upset.
Avatar’s real strength will be shown in it’s staying power as I expect it to remain in top 5 for many weeks to come. The only think I hate is how jouranalists will look back at it’s run and will call it suprising.
“Regardless what Alvin does, no way it cost less than Princess and the Frog. Princess is mostly traditionally animation, whereas Alvin has tons of CG.”
Unfortuantly jasonbraun, this is patently false. The original Alvin cost just $60 million, and “Princess and the Frog” is NOT traditional animation almost whatsoever. It’s computer animation done in the style of traditional, and is on the record as costing over $100 million.
@Gonzo: “Avatar” will be out of the top 5 by MLK weekend. Product flow will see to that.
@jeffmcm: You wanna talk like Rush Limbaugh, go apply for his job. Name-calling is one thing. Slander, libel and defamation are another.
Chucky, you keep talking about “product flow” as if it was an explanation.
Yes, eventually all movies lose popularity over their theatrical cycles. Thank you for stating the obvious.
“Name-calling is one thing. Slander, libel and defamation are another.”
Ooh, I know! Books by Ann Coulter! No?
What are they thinking at Box Office Prophets (Sherlock, It’s Complicated)?!
Maybe Chucky has Ass Burgers (Asperger’s).
My predictions: http://piaofang.blogspot.com/2009/12/christmas-weekend-box-office.html.
A Christmas gift for all the “Avatar” fanboys: James Cameron comes off as a major-league douche. Bonus gift of embedded video.
Hah! I love James Cameron! Thanks for warming my cockles this Christmas Chucky! =)
Nikki Finke is reporting that Avatar took back Christmas Eve – it had its first significant daily drop, but still pretty good at $11 million, while Alvin had the typical sequel drop to $8 million.
Every one else in my house is asleep now and I’ll probably be seeing Sherlock Holmes, tonight.
Very interested to see tomorrow what the numbers were like for today, but I have a feeling it will be the biggest Christmas ever.
According to Box Office Mojo, Avatar had the biggest Christmas Eve ever.
Chucky, go back and look at my last post (which is, I presume, the one you most recently responded to). Then come back and tell me how sarcastically referring to you as an ‘expert’ is slander, libel, and/or defamation. Then I invite you to sue me. Then I look forward to you getting slammed with court costs for filing a frivolous, pointless lawsuit without merit. Or, you could EXPLAIN WHAT THE HELL YOU MEAN for once in your life instead of just getting gummed up in your trademark inarticulate rage.
Then have a merry Christmas.
@jeffmcm: I wasn’t talking to you, I was talking to Rothchild. On that point I apologize.
On everything else I have nothing to apologize for.
Re: the Cameron TMZ incident–that wasn’t even a “fan” but one of those professional autograph hounds, many of whom I’ve experienced to be some of the most obnoxious, rude, and entitled people you can ever meet. Behold:
http://cgi.ebay.com/JAMES-CAMERONS-AVATAR-CAST-SIGNED-POSTER-SEEN-ON-TMZ_W0QQitemZ220530126339QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_0?hash=item33589eae03
EthanG…. about 99% sure you’re wrong about Princess…
If Cameron had decked him it would have been just about right. There’s nothing going on but TMZ slime.
Wrong based on what DP? The fact that “Princess” is an almost entirely CGI movie done in traditional style? While Alvin 2 is an almost entirely done live-action movie with CGI? Fox has said a few times that the new movie didn’t cost much more than the original, which was quoted as 55-70 million before.
I haven’t seen a single figure for “Princess and the Frog” below 100 million, and you’ve got to figure Disney would comment on that if the number was lower given that it’s waaay underperforming. Home on the Range cost over 100 million to make way back in 2004 and looked like crap compared to “Frog.” After all, it’s been 8 years since Disney released an original animated film below that level.
So I’d have to say you’re 99.9% wrong unless you have insider figures your holding out on.
FYI as for comparisons to G-Force, G-Force used large amounts of CGI special effects in addition to characters, courtesy of Mr. Bruckheimer. Alvin is just the Chipmunks
I’m not sure where you are getting the idea TF&TP is a CG film done in a 2D style. Nothing I have seen or read or spoken to the filmmakers about suggested that it wasn’t primarily hand drawn. In the DP/30, we even talked about how they got the equipment to do the work on after they feared it had all be thrown out… and about Katzenberg wanting to do 2D on a CG platform, but never getting it to work.
If you have some source that makes you think Disney has been making all this up, please offer it.
Chucky, without delving further into the ‘how much Asperger’s and what type’ controversy, I’d like to tell you that the issue that several people here have (such as myself) is that your claims and arguments seem to be poorly conceived and/or baseless, and when anyone asks you to explain or clarify them, you refuse to do so.
Wouldn’t it be great if we all knew what you were talking about and maybe even had a chance to agree with you?
“I’m not sure where you are getting the idea TF&TP is a CG film done in a 2D style. Nothing I have seen or read or spoken to the filmmakers about suggested that it wasn’t primarily hand drawn. In the DP/30, we even talked about how they got the equipment to do the work on after they feared it had all be thrown out… and about Katzenberg wanting to do 2D on a CG platform, but never getting it to work.”
I guess I shouldnt have said primarily CGI driven, but all vistual effects in the “Princess and the Frog” and nearly all the backgrounds are done in CGI. So while the characters and foregrounds are handdrawn, about 50% of the film is CGI. On the other hand, probably less than half of Alvin is CGI, and what is CGI is essentially the ssame six images repeated endlessly.
Disney and Lasseter have made clear they use tablit effects for most all of the backgrounds and v/x:
http://www.latinoreview.com/news/interview-princess-and-the-frog-directors-john-musker-and-ron-clements-plus-7-brand-new-images-8310
So I’d say the reports that “Princess” cost at least 30 million more than Alvin would tend to be accurate.