Up & Down The Avatar
This started as an entry only about the second story, below. But on a whim, I clicked on BO Mojo for Monday’s Avatar number, aka Torture For Some Of You.
Second Monday – $19.4m estimate
It’s the #7 Monday of all-time. It’s up from last Monday by 19%, which as you may recall, was a pretty amazing day as well, which we attributed to last weekend’s weather.
The only second Monday that is better is Shrek 2, which was on its way to being the #2 domestic grosser of all time (now #3, behind The Dark Knight as well as Titanic.) Oh yes… and that Monday was Memorial Day.
In fact, the only non-holiday Monday bigger was The Dark Knight‘s fourth day of release. Avatar, which is still $93 million behind TDK’s domestic 11-day gross, did $8.9m more than TDK on their respective Day 11s. Catching up a bit.
Avatar was the 10th fastest film in history to $200 million. If it hits $250m tomorrow or Wednesday, it will be the sixth fastest to $250m. It looks to move up to being fourth fastest grossing film in history by the tine it hits $300m domestic this weekend. It should be #2 all-time by the time it hist $400m.
Still. I’m not sure at all that Avatar will outgross The Dark Knight‘s $533 million domestic. But it will pass TDK’s $470m international number before the New Year’s weekend is over.
Sorry for the torture for those of you who hate this. I do understand that I was not this aggressive about reporting the daily Dark Knight numbers. I probably should have been. But as the above notes, the numbers weren’t that interesting after the first 10 days. Amazingly, Avatar is still growing.
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It took a week for Robert J. Elisberg to take a swing at Pete Hammond and Steve Pond over glowing reports about the Avatar screening at The Academy.
Firstly… trying to use Academy screenings to measure how movies are doing with The Academy is a bad, bad idea. Always has been. Always will be. For one thing, there are always a parade of varying interpretations of what happened. I don’t think there has been a movie that’s won Best Picture in recent years that was not said by some to have had a modest to poor response at the Academy screening… as well as someone saying that it was gangbusters.
The only reliable measurement to get from an Academy screening is how many people showed up. This tells you, very quickly, how much work the distributor in question has to do to get other 4500+ voting Academy members to see the movie.
By that measure, Fox had a great screening. And the film’s huge success should get them to something like 50% – 60% of Academy membership seeing the movie in theaters before the next couple of weeks are over. Fox, no doubt, will work hard to get the rest into screenings in the weeks thereafter.
It is one of the mistakes I think Oscar prognosticators make… spending too much time trying to read the group. Sometimes, the answer is bigger than the group. Avatar is one of those movies.
You know when it was clear that Avatar was the movie to beat for Best Picture? Well… the opportunity for it to change the game was there before it screened. It’s a soft year. But then, there was the night of that first look… December 10. (Here is the column I wrote the next day.)
(So ends the self-serving section of this entry.)
In any case, Elisberg seems kinda angry that Pete & Steve heard things went well at that screening. Could it be that he doesn’t much care for the movie?
“I was at that screening. In fact, I was first in line.”
Creepy. An hour early at The Academy. But more important, if Elisberg was first in then he wasn’t there when Academy members were actually turned away… a very rare occurrence. Elisberg acknowledges that the theater was full by showtime, but tries various ways of suggesting that this wasn’t special or at all meaningful. He even uses the capacity audience for Up… which looks to be the second animated film to be nominated for Best Picture in Oscar history… as a negative for Avatar.
“More importantly, from the few people I and friends spoke to afterward, the reaction was absolutely mixed.
Everyone was awed by the otherworldly-spectacular special effects. But for some, the script was a bit ordinary and ultimately somewhat disappointing. Others, though, while acknowledging the script weaknesses, overlooked them and adored the film.”
Well. That’s it then. Mr. Elisberg’s circle of friends and their snap decision defines the film’s Oscar potential. Much better read than Pete or Steve. (that’s sarcasm.)
As I say, I am not in disagreement with Elisberg that the Academy screening is a bad way to read the Oscar future of a film… as is Pete’s “film class” where he screens awards hopefuls. But Pete does get, in a general way, some very interesting reads off of his class and the many, many Q&As he does. In the weeks before nomination, Pete is usually the person most likely to smell a change in the voting class before it happens. This doesn’t mean his guesses are always right. But his thermometer is placed in a good place, particularly late in the nomination season.
I guess what strikes me about Elisberg’s attack is that he is so definitive about his perspective being right when the takes from Pete & Steve, while perhaps a bit hyperbolic, are more in line with stories I have heard from Academy members who were at that screening than Elisberg’s… including from at some who were turned away.
I don’t actually object to Elisberg adding his perspective to this minor event. But perhaps it could be his experience and not mean that Pete & Steve must be shills to repeat what they heard.
In the end, the likelihood that Avatar will win Best Picture is all about it being seen as a game-changer, a successful entertainment for the world, and a massive commercial hit. That and the lack of an alternative that is nearly as muscular.
Unless it completely collapses in its 4th weekend (ie, the next one that won’t be a holiday), it is clearly on track to dislodge LOTR-KING as the No 2 film worldwide.
It would be very interesting if does while not getting higher than No 4 (SHREK 2, $441M) or No 3 (STAR WARS, $460M) on the domestic list.
At any rate, perhaps much like STAR WARS sent studios scrambling for their own fantasy films, perhaps we can hope that the mega-success of a non-comic book, non-sequel, non-franchise starter finally makes the industry realize the only way to get the audience back that you have to gamble on originality.
Dave, nice mea culpa about The Dark Knight, but it’s quite alright – honestly, this does seem to be more of a story because it’s happening in December and is an original film.
Avatar has shocked me with these numbers – I honestly expected $275 million as the high-water mark, but this thing really looks to do over $450 million, amazing. It’s basically performing like a mini-Titanic for the front-loaded era.
With regards to the Best Picture race, I still can’t figure on ten films that really could get nominated. These seems to be the sure things:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker (wouldn’t have said that a few weeks ago, but it’s gotten a lot of heat from the critics’ groups)
Precious (though weakened)
Up in the Air
Beyond that, it’s quite tough, but there are the other six I can see get nods:
Inglorious Basterds
The Blind Side (it will get Invictus’ spot)
Up
Crazy Heart (I can see a late surge and this is Fox Searchlight)
An Education
A Single Man
Overall, it’s actually quite the commercial grouping, with four genuine blockbusters and pretty much something for every one.
I don’t know, I would love to see A Serious Man get in, but I just don’t see it. Would also love to see District 9 make it (and it would be in my top ten for the year), but Avatar has obviously killed it. Nine is dead – it has 40% on Rotten Tomatoes, wow.
It’s not King of the World, now it’s Emperor of the Universe!
“perhaps we can hope that the mega-success of a non-comic book, non-sequel, non-franchise starter finally makes the industry realize the only way to get the audience back that you have to gamble on originality.”
Ditto.
Or maybe Hollywood execs will all just start trying to figure out how to remake old Kevin Costner movies as sci-fi.
Good analysis! You saved me from responding to Nicol.
LYT – Can’t wait to see the sci-fi version of JFK.
Avatar is on its way to becoming the highest grossing film ever here in Australia. Two weekends here grossing the equivalent of $100mil. It’s already over $30m and Titanic is $58mil. It’s still selling out nightly and playing across the board. Phenomenal.
In a lot of ways Avatar is one of those things the Academy loves–a runaway hit fairy tale by one of their own that isn’t a comic book or sequel. But there are some caveats.
One is that, fair or not, people are writing articles wondering if the move’s praise means we ought to put a moratorium on the art of screenwriting. We’ve seen films with backlash before, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a critically praised film have such a contrarian movement so fast.
Secondly is the CGI characters. The biggest resistance to genre films is, I theorize, the actor’s branch. Actors do not like movies that marginalize the contributions of actors. They like vehicles. They like iconic performances. They do not like movies that disallow bags of acting tricks. They do not like movies that make half of its cast member anonymous. In a lot of ways, Avatar is the anti-actor’s movie.
Star Trek VI was not unlike a sci-fi version of JFK.
I thought JFK was the sci-fi version of JFK.
“The biggest resistance to genre films is, I theorize, the actor’s branch. Actors do not like movies that marginalize the contributions of actors. They like vehicles. They like iconic performances. They do not like movies that disallow bags of acting tricks. They do not like movies that make half of its cast member anonymous. In a lot of ways, Avatar is the anti-actor’s movie.”
RA, I think Zoe Saldana, Wes Studi, CCH Pounder, and Laz Alonzo might really disagree with that point.
“We’ve seen films with backlash before, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a critically praised film have such a contrarian movement so fast.”
Good point, but this is actually happening pretty frequently, the past few years, thanks to the blogospher. Both Juno and The Dark Knight already had huge backlashes developing before they even reached wide release to the point that there was already a backlash to the backlash after they both grossed well.
This post is my official start of backlashing against premature backlashes. But, just so I don’t make a complete fool out of myself, will someone please fill me in on the appropriate amount of time which must past before one can begin a backlash? I definitely need to know. I hated the fact Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture and I’m ready to backlash the shit out of that motherfucker.
Anyone worshipping “Avatar” is drinking the Kool-Aid served by News Corp. I was at a suburban megaplex last night and nothing was sold out.
Chucky: Is it not possible to like a movie that doesn’t sell out?
There will be “Avatar” backlash — how can there not be with a script that shaky? — but I bet backlash means less this year than it usually would. If there is a let’s-give-it-to-something-other-than-“Avatar” movement among voters, they’ll be splitting their votes between nine other movies (unlike the year when “Crash” was readily available for the let’s-give-it-to-something-other-than-“Brokeback” brigade). And each of those votes for something else will strengthen “Avatar”‘s position unless one of those other contenders emerges as a favorite, which does not seem to be happening so far. (Maybe “Up in the Air” has the best shot?)
boxofficemojo is reporting $18.29M on Tuesday to push it to $250M DM total. And so it continues… I wonder with this week with excellent numbers what does the weekend hold. Is it continued wow success, or just a good week because this is the week most are off from work?
Of course the holidays with kids out of school and many people on vacation are a big factor, but comparing Avatar’s run so far with, i.e., LOTR: ROTK, shows that Avatar is really running white hot.
It was the 26th fastest movie to reach $100m, the 18th fastest to $150m, the 10th fastest to $200m and the 6th fastest to $250m. I looks very likely to either beat or equal POTC: Dead Man’s Chest which is the 3rd fastest film to hit $300m.
In short, a bit of a phenomenon. I would expect the 3rd weekend record of $45m to fall this weekend, probably with a comfortable margin. Predicting what will happen in the new year is impossible, but I’m inclined to side with DP in predicting about $450-500m total domestically and about $1.3 – 1.5b worldwide. Incredible really.
I have to say that this is something I didn’t see coming and thought before Avatar was released that about $700m ww was the ceiling for the film, considering the subject matter.
(unlike the year when “Crash” was readily available for the let’s-give-it-to-something-other-than-“Brokeback” brigade)
I don’t think crash winning was an attempt by the academy to stick their thumb in the eye of Brokeback Mountain. There were a portion of Oscar voters that absolutly LOVED Crash. The votes just fell that way that year.
“The biggest resistance to genre films is, I theorize, the actor’s branch. Actors do not like movies that marginalize the contributions of actors. They like vehicles. They like iconic performances. They do not like movies that disallow bags of acting tricks. They do not like movies that make half of its cast member anonymous. In a lot of ways, Avatar is the anti-actor’s movie.”
Actually, that may be totally wrong. Cameron talked about this recently in an interview with /Film, saying he was surprised how much the actors got into the new rig-based mocap acting. Zoe has said the same thing. Anyway, here’s an excerpt from the interview:
“So I had to think, why are they enjoying themselves, why are they loving this process? And then I realized it was because it was pure acting. And most of film work for actors is sitting around waiting, and then rehearsing the scene, and getting the marks down so the camera operator can operate the shot, and not miss it, not miss the action, and get it in focus. So the DP can light it. And the actors are constantly these flesh puppets that are moving around so everybody else, all the other trades and crafts can do their jobs. And there
“In a lot of ways, Avatar is the anti-actor’s movie.”
There’s lot’s of evidence that actors actually respond well to motion capture. They don’t have to worry about lenses. They don’t have to worry about short takes. They don’t have to worry about hitting marks. As DP has said, it’s interesting that Beowulf seemed to reinvigorate Anthony Hopkins, John Malkovich, and Robin Wright Penn. Coincidence? You decide. And don’t forget that Brad Pitt was nominated last year for a performance that was 60% CGI.
Anyway, i’m pleased that Avatar is doing the business. Not for the movie itself (which i liked with reservations), but to stick it to the tabloid and internet naysayers who clearly had their own agenda.
“Beowulf seemed to reinvigorate Anthony Hopkins, John Malkovich, and Robin Wright Penn.”
How’s that?
I’d wager and say more people are talking about the acting in Avatar than any other film of its kind before (except for perhaps Andy Serkis in Two Towers) so the “anti-actor” thing seems a bit off base.