Weekend Estimates by Klady – Avatar Hit (A Little) By Mother Nature
First thing… don’t trust the estimates this week, No one knows. Fri/Sat probably took a hit of a few million. From the NFL coverage this morning, things look better in the east. But will people be running to the grocery store or to shop for Christmas or the movies. I don’t know and no one else does either. This is one of those weekends when treating projected estimates like news – and it’s always an iffy choice when you are looking at records and such that are close – is an epic fail for the media.
It seems that Fox’s position is $73m for the #2 all-time December opening. Klady is being a bit more conservative. Either could be right. Either could be wrong, low or high.
In any case, Avatar is in the range of expectations, neither breaking significantly bigger than expected or lower. And now, the real future of this film will start to shape up, day by day, over the next few weeks.
Disney’s decision to hold The Princess & The Frog has not paid off. The film, which has been well received, is well behind Bolt after its tenth day in wide release. They made some more space for A Christmas Carol. I guess, but they got the worst of both worlds, plucking the bloom off the rose by opening on just 2 screens for 10 days, triggering all the media attention when no one could see the film, then pushing the film wide in one of the weakest possible weeks in the 2-month holiday season followed by Avatar’s opening weekend.
I assume this was not a Rich Ross strategy, because it kinda sucked. And it would be tragic if the failure of distribution strategy here became a finger-pointing at 2D animation exercise.
The Blind Side is a true phenom. You have to go back to 2007 to find a holiday season movie that was at this kind of number in Weekend 5 of wide release. That was Alvin & The Chipmunks… and that film did its fifth weekend in the not-so-competitive mid-January period. In fact, the only November releases in history that I can find with as good or better a fifth weekend are How The Grinch Stole Christmas and Aladdin. Not the Potter or Twilight or Bond franchises.
This is the part where Alcon would like me to tell you that The Blind Side is wholly owned by Alcon and WB is just distributing and marketing the film, much as Iron Man is owned by Marvel and “just” distributed by Paramount and the second round of Star Wars films are owned by George Lucas and “only” distributed by Fox.
Sony is grousing about the snow regarding the Morgans opening. Fair enough… for a million or so. Still not a thriller.
Paramount seems to have been trying an accelerated Slumdog Millionaire release for Up In The Air so far. Slumdog rolled up on December on under 80 screens for 4 weekends before going to 169 screens for $2.2 million and a $12,873 per screen. Up In just went 175 in its third weekend after 2 weekends under 80 screens and did an estimated $3.1 million and a $17,714 per screen.
On Wednesday, the expansion to 1800 screens, which Slumdog didn’t try until nominations. This next week, Paramount is pushing up against Sherlock Holmes and Avatar and Nine and It’s Complicated. So what is Up In The Air‘s niche here? 40-50 year old heterosexual couples with dominant females? There might be $20 million out there for the film in the fives day weekend, assuming Nine pretty much flops. But is that where they want to be? And can they count on Juno-like holds, given that this is not a teen-driven event movie? We’ll see.
Precious‘ box office run is over… at least for now. The number is on the low end of the Tyler Perry scale. And getting to this number was an achievement. I’m sure it’s a bit disappointing for some involved and the failure to reach and exceed the overhyped expectations – which is the standard by which I think Oscar disconnect becomes an issue, not the actual gross – likely leaves the film nominated, but only a high-possibility winner with Mo’Nique.
And unbeknown to me, The Hurt Locker has apparently gone back into some form of release… 129 screens… interesting… too late to be meaningful. In fact, trying and failing to generate some more box office – presumably because Summit has realized that they may well have blown their chance to win Best Picture – may be the last nail in that coffin. Again, perception. The failure to release one of the very best action films of the year as though someone outside an arthouse might want to see it was a mistake that Summit should own up to. “The movie didn’t do $50 million because we may a conservative strategic mistake in a tight market and under-released the film. Sigh…” Then it isn’t on the movie. A failed re-release is like affirming everything that makes Academy members shy about voting for commercial weak sisters for Best Picture.
Those are still pretty good numbers for…
A COMMUNIST MANIFESTO!!
A LIBERAL RANT!!
AN ANTI-WAR PREACH-A-THON!!
ANTI-HUMAN PROPAGANDA!!!!
ENVIRONMENTALIST TIRADE!!!!!!
MARXIST ANTI-GOD PABLUM!!!!!
RACIST “WHITE GUY SAVES THE WORLD” PABLUM!!
RARRRRRRGGHHHHH!!!!!
I expected there to be haters. But for the haters to be so all over the map in such ridiculous manners must be delightful to Cameron. And the reasons for hating say far more about the hater than the movie.
Really. I’ve been a LexG fan and defender. But “communist manifesto”? LOLOLOL. Get out and get some fresh air, friend.
Once again, I am thinking the estimates for today might be a little low. Mojo says 73 million with a drop of about 20% on Sunday. Return of the King dropped 15% on its first Sunday. I know my wife and I are thinking of catching a show later. I say 75 million (rounded up) final for the weekend.
Clean Steve,
Yes, those are stellar numbers for all of those things. But are they stellar numbers for the most expensive movie ever made that is supposed to be a game changer in the way we see stories told in the motion picture medium?
You are falling into the same trap as the anti-Avatar side who want it to fail by overstating the numbers.
72 million is not a bad opening at all. It is opening like a garden variety blockuster. As more and more territories are coming in it seems to be performing similarly. Well in some, less than New Moon and 2012 in others.
Fox and Cameron have nothing to be ashamed of. Neither do they have anything to crow about.
Write now it is performing in a very average blockbustery here today forgotten in 6 months kinda way. That can change and may…but the lovers are overstating as much as the haters.
As for myself…I am off to a late afternoon matinee. I’ll be sure to skip the popcorn and bring a bag of granola while reading my Karl Marx reader.
Avatar is awesome. I think out of the five movies I’ve seen in the past week or so, it’s my favourite, but then again I find myself thinking a lot about Up in the Air. Tough call.
I’m saddened that The Princess and the Frog is being lost in the shuffle. I think the platform release strategy wasn’t the right one. Then I look at Fantastic Mr. Fox, and am depressed. One of the best films that plays to all audiences hasn’t even cracked 20 mill? Guess it’s just going to have to wait until blu-ray & dvd to gain a following. At least it got made though.
$72.5m in December is not a garden variety blockbuster opening, or average, sorry. And you’re basing this on what, the opening weekend? Come back next week with that if that’s really the case, but not on the first Sunday.
CleanSteve, excuse some of us for having a problem with the WHITE GUY SAVING THE DAY. It’s as tired as the BLACK GUY INSPIRING THE WHITE GUY TO SAVE THE DAY! I also do not hate this movie. Zoe Saldana is too awesome in it for me to hate it.
72 is exactly half of New Moon. Not too bad, but it should crest at 250. If WOM is as awesome as many critics expect it to be.
Brack, I am glad you love it like you do, but never give me crap again after this display. This film now has to go against Meryl, Alec, and Downey next week. It should drop 60 because it’s a regular blockbuster. It’s not a world-changer, but it’s not a piece of shit either.
IO, I’m glad you think you know everything, but you really don’t know the future, no matter how much you believe you do. Like I said, come back next weekend with that next weekend, but right now what you’re saying is crap.
Brittany Murphy passed away. (http://www.tmz.com/2009/12/20/brittany-murphy-dies-cardiac-arrest/)
Avatar is overrated. I got a total King Kong vibe while watching the movie, in terms of not seeing what critics are seeing and that the box office projections are way off. The one difference is that King Kong is a better movie. There is no way this gets to 400 million. I didn’t feel that this movie is “something I’ve never seen before”. Zemeckis is doing just as good of work with his 3D movies. I think it’s kind of embarrassing to think this movie might win best picture.
“Princess and the Frog” may well go down as one of the biggest bombs of the year on its budget….I find it hard to believe it’ll recover with “Alvin 2” coming next week. Goodbye, again, to traditional animation from Disney??
“Blind Side” is now the biggest football movie, and biggest Sandra Bullock movie ever. It’s the biggest dramatization of a real life event since “Passion of the Christ.” Amazing.
Brack, I get wanting to defend this movie, but it faces a battle. It has nothing to do with knowing the future. It has to do with knowing what’s coming, and what coming is not good for the gross of this film. Meryl got 100m out Julia and Julie. Downey may be the most loved actor of the moment. So, again, it makes sense that it’s trending this way. Sorry.
Brittany Murphy dying is just unfuckingsettling.
IO- I agree it has competition, but you’re fooling yourself if you are already writing the film off as a traditional blockbuster, only after the first weekend. This has nothing to do with defending the movie, I’m defending rationality.
Ethan, I forgot about Alvin & the Chipmunks. Lord almighty that looks like a terrible piece of shit. And people will flock to it.
I doubt it will kill traditional at Disney, given they’ve got at least one movie for sure in the pipeline. I think that Disney will rethink how they marketed this one though, and hopefully learn from their mistakes. Lasseter doesn’t seem the type to shrug his shoulders and go, “Oh well!”
IO, shut the fuck up about the white guy saving the day.
Also, to Nicol…box office has nothing to do with game changers. People still rip off Blade Runner, which was not a hit.
Very true…and yeah “Alvin” just looks so bad. The chipmunks spinning to Flo Rida and the Chippettes shaking their booties to “Single Ladies..” not to mention good old bestiality advertisted in the trailers. WTF????
FYI I didnt see it mentioned but the worldwide number for Avatar this weekend is between 220-230 million. Given that it’s opened all over the world at once…seems very slightly soft, but again, the legs remain to be seen…
Perm, you like to think you are that guy don’t you? Again, we don’t need you. Take off. Again, the white guy saves the day, but that’s okay with Perm. Good to know. Good to know.
What’s with all this “WHITE GUY SAVES THE WORLD” nonsense. Sure Jake joined and helped, even leading troops into battle…but let’s be clear…without the WARRIOR WOMAN…Jake was DOA.
It seemed clear to me that Neytiri is the one who really saves the “world” when the stakes are down…she is the one who comes to the rescue in the end. She ends up saving Jake more than once in the film.
Sure Jake was a key component, but he was never alone.
What will be pulled out next from the HATEBAG???
Brack, how are you defending rationality? What’s the rational? This film is going to pull a Blindside? It’s going to pull a Twilight? What’s the rational? Seriously, I am curious as to what you are defending.
It’s not hate KNIFE? IT IS WHAT IT IS! If you guys do not see it, then you guys do not see it, but a guy whose I like more than most of you does. SO I am not alone in seeing this. Hell, given that this film has been incubating in Cameron’s head since Dances With Wolves came out, does not exactly eliminate the comparisons.
Yeah, it is okay with me that a white guys saves the day.
DOUCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHE.
Very sad to hear the news about Brittany Murphy.
I’ve always felt that she was woefully underrated as an actress.
“Girl, Interrupted” (damn, she broke my heart in that one: I still remember her suicide scene w/ Brenda Lee’s “The End of the World” playing in the background);
“8 Mile” (few actresses could have held their ground opposite Eminem the way she did in that film)
“Little Black Book” (not great and certainly not a hit, but a much better romcom than some other r-c hits of recent vintage like “Failure to Launch” and “Ugly Truth”)
“The Dead Girl” (another truly heartbreaking performance)
IO – I’m defending not predicting the future, which you seem to be doing. So what if there is competition. From my knowledge of holiday films, there can be multiple hits at the box office at one time. All I was saying was, WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND before writing off the film–that’s it. It’s not that hard of a concept.
Brack, THAT’S WHAT WE DO AROUND HERE! We all play the game where we predict what’s going to happen next. What’s going to happen next does not look that good for this film, but it could have a good week. Who knows? That does not change the fact that this is what I am doing, and it’s what happens here all the time. So why is Avatar so damn special in not deserving this treatment?
The industry really needs to put out lists of tickets sold like every other industry lists units. A $73M opening when a good chunk of the tickets sold are jacked up by $2-6.00 for 3D and IMAX is not comparable to standard blockbusters in 2D. This is really equivalent to what, maybe $50M?…or less?…
“What’s with all this “WHITE GUY SAVES THE WORLD” nonsense. Sure Jake joined and helped, even leading troops into battle…but let’s be clear…without the WARRIOR WOMAN…Jake was DOA.
It seemed clear to me that Neytiri is the one who really saves the “world” when the stakes are down…she is the one who comes to the rescue in the end. She ends up saving Jake more than once in the film.”
thank CRHIST somebody finally said it, good on ya modernknife.
io, go outside and breathe some oxygen, you’re being insufferable in pretty much every thread
mutiny, maybe you should go off and find a phosphorescent forest to be annoyed by!
IO: Usually I was in your corner for TDK, and for Ironman, but it seems you’ve just dumbed yourself down for Avatar. Sure New Moon was a huge success, but it won’t get to 300M. Lets do some rainmanesque analysis of this 73M opening.
Top 10 Dec Openers:
1 Legend $77,211,321 30.1% $256,393,010
2 Avatar $73,000,000 100.0% $73,000,000
3 ROTK $72,629,713 19.3% $377,027,325
4 Narnia:$65,556,312 22.5% $291,710,957
5 Towers $62,007,528 18.2% $339,789,881
6 Kong $50,130,145 23.0% $218,080,025
7 LotR $47,211,490 15.1% $313,364,114
8 Fockers $46,120,980 16.5% $279,261,160
9 Treasure2 $44,783,772 20.4% $219,964,115
10 Chipmunks $44,307,417 20.4% $217,326,974
The only movie that didn’t do 4 times its opening weekend was Legend. And yes Will Smith is the BO King of the World right now, but it was a zombie movie. To have a 30% ratio is fanfuckingtastic for a thriller. And maybe only Big Willie could have done that. The much referred to King Kong is at 23%, that would put Avatar at $317M if it performs the same way. Please note that King Kong has the highest multiplier in the top 10 aside from I am Legend. Avatar is receiving better reviews, will play longer because of 3D, has more of an event feel to it, receive more free media buzz, (just like New Moon), and has/will receive some award recognition. Feels more like it is fitting the mold of the Rings series to me more than Kong, and with that comes a great average multiplier of under 20% or $350M.
Will this be the pattern it will follow? Who fucking knows. But at least wait until the 2nd weekend before you shit all over the numbers. All in all, I still think it will do more than New Moon and get to 300M
If they did that Mutiny then we’d have twenty or so SLUMP retorts from DP as the media realises how few are going to theatres these days. The reality is a $100m hit now would be considered a flop 30yrs ago in terms of admissions. The reality is TDK is on par with The Jungle Book and Spiderman pulled in less people than Love Story.
My point exactly. By relying on gross rather than units, the industry is effectively running a scam.
But, I think it’s a legitimate issue to raise when a movie is released with abnormally high ticket prices, then compared to other recent releases that didn’t have that premium.
The hard part is, IO, is arguing with you suggests you know something… not even whether your opinion is right, but whether you know anything about box office.
Last year, for instance, the worst drop in the Top 10 on Christmas weekend from the weekend before was 22.2% for the hideous The Day The Earth Stood Still.
Assuming he weather is better next weekend, Avatar is likely to go UP for the weekend. And if it drops more than 20%, I will send you $100.
Of course, that would require me knowing who you are, so even though it is not intended as an empty promise, it probably is one because of your privacy issues.
Regardless… not going to happen.
And Kami… you are just wrong. $72 million with the east coast brutalized on a December 3-day is something to crow about. Comparing it to summer releases and franchise sequels is clever, but wrongheaded in an objective
Would $78 million and the December record be worth crowing about?
This is why I roll out numbers early on these movies. When the movie overperforms, I get accused of trying to drag it down. When it performs below record-breaking, I am accused of being in romantic love with the film. But they are just numbers.
Obviously, Avatar has a long way to go to $400 million-plus domestic. But this start is within 10% of the best expected reasonable target… with the snow storm. And whatever is next is next…
Mutiny… you’re just wrong. Thank God you are a director and not a producer.
A. Reporters report this stuff. The onus for perspective is on us, not the industry.
B. Units are meaningless. Revenue is meaningful.
C. More people see these movies than ever before… but they see them via a multitude of delivery systems. There were no TVs in 1939. So would anyone but a myopic fool think that comparisons of how many people went to the movie theater in 1939 – which were also four-five hour long presentations and not just one film at a time – to today is remotely relevant to anything worth discussing?
The reason we don’t get anything close to real DVD stats – and that website that claims to know is dubious in most cases – is because coverage of box office is so dumb. And your thing about per-unit sales, which are an obscure notion at best, is just the kind of dumb that keeps this an adversarial process.
It’s funny, since Spielberg said to me just this week that he would love to just open his books to the media, but – and he didn’t say this, though it was inferred – we are too dumb to know what to do with the information. It would be used as a wedge to support pet theories instead of as facts by which to analyze news.
Nicol, I was being more snide about the political reasons many have against the film than the numbers themselves. It’s about what I expected in terms of opening dollars. The story will be told as the weeks go on, as everybody has noted.
IO….the fact that it bothers you so much says more about you than anything else. Get a grip.
Plus, it’s debatable anyway, as others have pointed out.
But c’mon! Really?? That’s you biggest issue? Why? Why can’t it just be about this GUY, regardless of color, completing this journey and change?
a) Most reporters report studio numbers. The studios put out their estimates on Sunday, their finals on Monday. Some reporters put out independent numbers. Neither side offers units sold. Like every other industry.
b) See above. Every other industry reports units. Music bases week stats on units sold. Even TV is based on viewership. No problem with gross reports, but there’s no excuse not to also report units.
c) I agree and actually had written that in my last response but deleted it before posting.
d) You didn’t address the issue of comparing a movie with higher-priced tickets to regular-priced films. What’s the ticket ratio come out at for Avatar against traditional releases? $50M? It’s a legitimate question.
You know, there’s all this guff about the ticket prices, but looking at the charts for biggest December openings, there’s something you guys are missing…..Avatar opened on FEWER screens than the rest of the top five; hell, even Marley & Me opened on more screens, last Christmas. Shouldn’t that be a factor, too?
Prices were higher, but it’s obvious given the presentation demands, they were at a disadvantage with regards to the number of theaters….
And one other thing, you guys are going crazy with the tentpole comparisons – the Spiderman’s, Twilights, Potter’s, etc. usually open in over 4,000 theaters easily for their $100 million plus openings – this opened on over 10% fewer theaters than any of those other films.
I REALLY hate to agree with IOI about anything, but he actually does have a (poorly stated, somewhat misbegotten) point about ‘white guy saves the world.’ Why didn’t Cameron just make the movie about a Na’Vi warrior who gets sick of what the humans are doing to his planet and leads an uprising? Because Cameron knows his audience for the movie isn’t largely made of Noble Savages. Say what you will, but this is a White Guilt movie.
Not that that’s necessarily a bad thing, so is The Searchers and Dances With Wolves.
I actually think the AVATAR number is very good.
DP its apple and oranges I know, but it’s a fact less people go to the movies now. Why is that so hard to admit.
It’s not like I said SLUMP. SLUMP. SLUMP three times.
I think it’s more about compassion and empathy than guilt, though I guess those are the same thing depending on who’s talking.
Ripley saved the day in Aliens so Cameron must have male guilt too.
The hyenas in Lion King were a darker hue so that’s obviously some serious racism right there. Protest this movie I say.
All Stallone, Arnold, Van Damme and now Damon, Stratham, Butler et al movies are fucking racist. Burn the prints I say. Outlaw their DVD’s. Any movie where Sam Jackson or Morgan Freeman or Blair fucking Underwood are not the hero should be put into complete turn around and re-written so a black guy, or hispanic, or asian, or gay or Barack Obama are the hero.
And any half assed jewish blogger who makes light fun of the punctuation of a black woman’s name should be taken out and circumsized a 2nd time.
WHAT THE FUCK PEOPLE! SERIOUSLY! WHAT THE FUCK!
Are we now so politically correct that every fucking casting decision is examined based on race. Now excuse me, this black man is about to have some watermelon, some fried chicken, and fuck 13 white women with my big black dick.
SERIOUSLY FOLKS. SERIOUSLY!
Don
JBD – You seem to have a reading comprehension problem. I keep pointing out that more people went to the movies in the past. It’s not anything less than a fact.
But there are reasons for it. And there is revenue produced by the reasons for it. So to take that stat and to prioritize it is to mislead.
In the DVD era, the annual drop-off has been abour 2% a year. And during those years, overall revenues have doubled… and are now dropping off a bit… but still way up since 2000.
As others have pointed out and I keep repeating… the notion that you can analyze the industry by simply looking at industry-wide grosses or the most worthless stat, market share, is not only untrue, but dangerous in the hands of hack journalists. And that is why we got SLUMP stories for six months.
But even smart people become myopic. This is up. This is down. It’s simplistic thinking.
Mojo’s adjusted gross for Gone With The Wind is $1.45 billion. Great. Add in another $1.55 billion internationally. $3 billion. (btw, Mojo doesn’t do this stat, since they are light on foreign numbers pre-2000)
Titanic’s adjusted world gross, by Mojo’s est, is $2.8 billion. Add in VHS and DVD sales, rentals, and other ancillaries, and the number would be at least $3.7 billion to GOTW’s, what, $3.4 billion.
But wait… licensing on the first 3 Star Wars movies, adjusted for inflation, has to add at least a billion per movie more than GOTW or Titanic, aside from ww box office. So it the box office was adjusted to $2 billion worldwide, plus other adjusted ancillaries, plus the licensing, you’re looking at well over $3 billion there too, perhaps the biggest number ever! Plus, there were THREE of them!
In this end, this is nothing but a parlor game for the bored.
Mut – The businesses that sell seats do not report by the unit… concerts and theater. Broadway does report percentages of tickets sold. But the details of what revenues go where are not as publicly available.
The only area of the film business that should, in theory, report unit sales is DVD sell thru. But like most other industries, where nothing like weekly charts are available, gross unit figures don’t tell the true story either. So though they might comfort you, they are only the tip of the real information.
What are the returns? What is the pricing for Wal-Mart vs Blockbuster vs Redbox vs Amazon vs Mom & Pop? How is rental pricing quantified in a monthly flat rate world? Etc.
Why on God’s green earth would corporations subject themselves to endless analysis by underqualified loudmouths? The box office analysis is already an issue of discomfort… and if they could remove it now, they would.
Obviously, the studios want the media to lean in their direction. And often, the media feels obliged to be tougher than the truth suggests.
The truth, as I have long noted, is that a significant percentage of movie theater tickets go unsold on even the biggest films. Of course, journalists would still fail to do math if the standard was “tickets sold.”
But again… “tickets sold” is not the standard for success in this industry. It just isn’t.
How many tickets were sold is not the standard by which theaters or distributors or percentage players or ANYONE is paid. A Pixar movie has to sell 20%-30% more tickets to make the same amount as am r-rated film. So WHAT?
How many people saw Harry Potter in IMAX and paid extra? Why wasn’t that so important to you then? And how many people will see the film in The Valley vs The West Side of LA? The ticket price varies by $2 or $3 on that alone. Should the studios be telling you that? Because in “Per Unit World,” it is very significant.
I mean, I am interested in this stuff. I will break those numbers down. But you profess an interest right now, in this situation, and if I reported in that detail every week, 95% of the people who read this blog would not read those entries. And the other 5% would be fascinated.
Bottom line… no industry works under the kind of weekly scrutiny that the film business does. Television ratings matter because they set the ad prices. The record business is selling a specific thing and obviously, the only way to measure is record sales… and not how many people listen to the purchased CD or download.
Lovely to want the industry to operate under your absolute scrutiny, but why would it?
And any idiot with a calculator can understand in minutes that $10,000 per screen over a weekend with $10 avg tickets and 200 seats per screen and 15 shows a weekend means 2/3 of available seats are empty.
$2000 per screen on 2000 screens – Potential, in theory, for $30,000 per screen. Almost 7% of all seats are being sold. But the gross is $4 million.
Of course, reality is more complicated than this. Matinees may be only 4% full with reduced tickets. 8p shows may be 60% full at a premium price. Etc.
Feel better now, Mutiny?
DP agreed. I think we had a strother martin failure that is all.
I admit to being obsessed with cinema going as in ‘going to the movies’ and rose tinted myopia be damned, I think cinema today doesn’t have the same impact that it had with moviegoers of yesteryear. A big part of that is the drop off exhibition and the dilution of each films cultural impact due to the varied distribution methods.
Parlor games weren’t for the bored in them old days Dave. They were what brought smart people together and connected them through popular culture.
JBD – If I felt that most people who chew over this stuff were smart about the little we have, I would push studios harder for details… though the branding of estimates as The Answer each week has extended the illusion that they have all this information sitting around on Sunday afternoon to give out if they like.
Only 15 years ago, Exhibitor Relations was calling studios to get their numbers, organizing a chart, faxing it out to their clients, and feeding info to the media individually. They they put the info in a file cabinet. (Where, btw, Brandon Grey “acquired” older numbers with which to start BO Mojo… a business that ERC was not smart enough to launch themselves… and has still not been smart enough to launch in the many years since.)
The availability of data creates a demand for more data. But even Bo Mojo has failed utterly to be Bill Elias smart and to turn the numbers into bigger, better ideas. The only thing they have done is to improve, over the years, how we can access the data. But hell, they still don’t do foreign for themselves, much less well.
The thing about this business, as I have learned after over a decade of trying to quantify it, is that it can’t be quantified so easily. 85% of it, or so, is by the book. But the great success and the great failure is in the other 15%. And history is a distraction as often as not when it comes to those films. The illusion that it can be controlled – or worse, in media, that we “get it” over opening weekend – is a lot like understanding God’s will… or even God’s existence or non-existence. It’s in the details. And you don’t have the details until they happen, which is too late for anything but 20/80 hindsight.
You know…. will The Dark Knight expand on Batman Begins or will it go back to the Bat-series success of the past and have a gross reflected in the light of those former successes? No one knows. And how will the next one do? No one knows.
Who was betting on Ice Age 3 outgrossing Transformers 2, even with Tr2 doing almost 20% more business in spite of endless media attacks?
Who saw 2012 doing over $700 million after Emmerich’s last film flopped (by his numbers) and the one before did $550m?
What; the biggest surprise on The Hangover? $182 million international.
This business is a crapshoot by its nature. And at some point, all the numbers become counterintuitive. In many cases, they already have,
So is there a solution in having MORE numbers being poured over?
Would it make movies better?
Only thing I feel better about is that right now I’m standing in an enclosed roof on top of a building on Roosevelt Island surrounded by the East River, Manhattan and the 59th St. Bridge. And for now I could give a flying fuck about phosphorescent horses with 6 legs.
Bulldog, I think you may be overreacting. I’m not slamming the movie, I’m describing it. There’s no necessary moral value in a simple description.
how grumpy a fucker do you have to be to hate/be annoyed by phosphorescence
JBM: My comment was more to IO, put please don’t aid and abet that type of foolishness. I think you are way more steady than that.
I get your comment as to having the hero be a Na’vi as well, but I thought that was what Neytiri was. Additionally, isn’t it also an established movie plot that we see the story through someone’s eyes who is more like us, and we take the journey with them to so that as they come to some sort of new realization, so do we. Whats so wrong with that?
My previous comment was meant for jeffmcm, not JBM.
Christmas period always provides good numbers for big movies and Avatar wasn’t a sequel/adaptation so it had that to deal with too.
“So is there a solution in having MORE numbers being poured over?
Would it make movies better?”
In a word: yes.
If you want to know why this industry is such a crapshoot, it’s because there’s no goddamn metrics. Yes, each product is different and should be handled differently, but at some point you need to say “This is what we’re trying to do, this is an appropriate measure for that target, now let’s find out if what we’re doing WORKS”.
Without metrics, you have:
– No accountability. It’s always someone else’s fault. The studio didn’t promote it. The actors were wooden. The script was lame. Everyone gets to happily fail upward by pointing the finger at someone else. Unless it was a complete stinker, and then SOMEONE is never getting serious work again.
– No learning. Why was something successful? WE DON’T KNOW. You get shit like Lucas and Kevin Smith, who each inspired a generation of fans turning out complete crap because they feel that’s what they should do. The industry slowly gets better, by accident, by Darwinian selection. But not because we’re professionals dedicated to improving our craft.
– No professionalism. Without metrics, you’re just making shit up. Yeah, a huge proportion of pitches go through because of who’s doing the pitching rather than what’s being pitched. You think that’s a healthy thing for the industry?
Seriously, I may hate Ryan Kavanaugh for deciding that he just wants to make a buck rather than make a decent movie, but the guy is financing WELL above his weight because he is DISCIPLINED in how he does it. Take his discipline with Pixar’s open creativity system and you’d be looking at the single most dominant and successful studio on the planet.
i gotta tell ya, metrics are part of the business, and there are those of us who enjoy discussing the topic. yes, it doesn’t do a thing to enhance the movie going experience, no more so than fantasy football or gambling enhances the NFL, but a lot of people enjoy it.
It’s all just fun speculation. Parlor games, as Dave said. That sums it up nicely. But there’s always going to be a douche who uses money made as some reflection of quality. Or a douche on the opposite end of the spectrum who whines about the soul crushing box office analysis, acting as if the movie industry would exist as is if the movies tanked or made a billion dollars.
It’s just metrics. It’s not good or bad, just the way things are.
Went to a 1:00 pm Sunday show of Avatar. At least 2/3 full. 1:00 pm. Usually about 4-10 people had about 200 people in a 300 seat theater. 75 million minimum.
Foamy Squirrel, I think you are confusing cause and effect. In fact, your entire post is pretty much crap. If a movie isn’t doing well, the studio will know one way or the other.
Nobody’s ever going to advocate abandoning usingd data altogether or even cutting down on it’s sheer size but rather the type. The thing is a lot of these so-called metrics appear to be created for outside use to be used by outsiders and used poorly to evaluate how studios peform. Too often people use “data” as an excuse to justify far reaching conclusions and (see the NYT article) and promote policies that don’t really make much sense.
More data will not necessarily solve the problem of accountability nor learning nor professionalism. It’s a very beuracratic way of thinking, which is fine but the underlining assumption that smart people can’t see the obvious and that without a ten page report noone will have anyone to blame is kind of narrowminded.
And if there’s crap being made in the studios than it’s as much due to people not seeing the signs as it is due to them chasing them. Poland is right to talk about uncertainty. And hope. And wishful thinking. And greed. And ever changing tastes. Obvious things will be obvious anyway. Apart from that there is no formula just heuristics and experience (which by itself relies more on metrics).
And man, shit, metrics, is such a beuracratic (read: SLOW) word.
And don’t ever fault anyone for inspiring someone else either. Don’t blame the prophets and all that crap. Oh and don’t equate Lucas with Smith. That’s just plain dumb. And how does this tie into lack of learning? I can’t speak for Smith but Lucas clearly know wtf he’s doing.
In fact, I bet that the “metrics” will show that a lot of what of what you called “crap” has been perfectly commercial.
Bulldog, I think you pointed out a critical issue with the movie. Something like Rapa Nui or Apocalypto are movies completely set within their specific cultures, with protagonists who are ‘like us’ enough to provide access to the narratives. Cameron could have done exactly the same thing, if he had wanted to, but he didn’t want to: he wanted to set up a contrast between the two camps, the (please excuse the quick and dirty labelling) Evil Humans and Noble Na’Vi. And the Evil Humans have all the characteristics of Western imperialists (mostly Caucasian, technologically-oriented, rapaciously seeking natural resources) and the Na’Vi have all the characteristics of the indigenous cultures on the receiving end for the last five hundred+ years. I mean, this is pretty obvious, right?
I wasn’t inside, but I walked past a cinema last night at 10.30 at the night and the car park was full. On a Sunday night. I like that Avatar made $11.9mil for the weekend and the #2 was New Moon, which made $930,000. Yikes.
Foamy – don’t you think Kavanaugh is stretched a bit thin? I’m still surprised his backers are down with it because, IMO, it’s sprawling. What’s the endgame? Where is he with Comcast/NBCU? Tull’s strategy makes more sense to me.
Keep up the posts. They’ve been a good read.
So… at $77,025,481 posted on Box Office Mojo Avatar is slightly behind