4 Day Estimates By Klady – A5
(my analysis after 1p)
8.5 hours after 1p – A 15% drop isn’t all that impressive. After all, Titanic was up actually up on MLK weekend… 4.5% on the 3-day. Of course, Titanic’s domestic gross was at $275m after that 4-day. Fact is, there are a parade of late December openers that held better on this weekend, even before MLK Day was made into a national holiday.
That said, Top MLK Grosser is kind of the least significant milestone for the film this weekend. The previous record for 5th weekend 3-day gross was Titanic‘s $30 million. So let’s do the adjusted gross thing… that takes Titanic to about $45m. And a 25% 3D bump makes that $56.25. So forget what I just wrote. A $43 million 3-day SUCKS! It’s nothing. Forget it. No one will ever see this movie. Even the Chinese government hates the story.
Ahem.
Everytime I think it’s time to put Avatar on a more traditional trajectory, it blows right past expectations.
Of course, the question of whether it is a cultural phenomenon is more than gross dollars. I agree. But this speaks to my sense that neither The Dark Knight or Shrek 2 nor Pirates 2 were true social phenomena. A month out. there is more discussion of Avatar than of any of those three recent record-breakers. But have any of these films really had a major cultural impact? Not so much. Popularity no longer signals that kind of weight. Certainly, the media has limited interest in perpetuating what is popular and prefers “off brands,” like Twilight, which was the #6 film of last year and #36 all-time worldwide… and for those of you who love an argument, probably the #5 film in profit last year… but plays as a surprise.
Anyway…
Avatar also may be creating opportunity for some other films. As much as it ate the box office this weekend, this is also the first time in history that six films have been over $10m for the 4-day MLK weekend (or on the same weekend before the holiday existed). The only times there have been as many as five eight-figure movies over this weekend was 2002 and 2003. To put that in perspective, the top three grossers on that four-day in 2002 totaled $73m… this weekend, $113m. The Book of Eli would have been the #3 grosser over the MLK weekend were it not for Avatar, so that opening is quite impressive as well.
I can’t see anything else on the estimates chart that hasn’t been discussed in the last week,
Is there anyone left who DOESN’T believe Avatar will skate past Titanic’s record? What is the limit for this picture? It just blew past $500m on a $50m 5th weekend… wow.
3D bump!
More people still saw TDK!
No Kenner figures, not part of pop culture!
I think when there are forums to help those depressed about leaving the world of Pandora, it may be time for Nicol and IO to eat a big plate of shut the fuck up.
Cameron you’re an arrogant pompous jackass but you’ve stuck your cinematic finger into the moist zeitgiest again and you and your crew deserve all the moola and accolades you get.
I dont care if it passes titanic or not. Either way itll be one of jim cameron’s mangina spectacles in the top spot.
Hippie cribbed sci fi garbage. I dont care if it makes 3 billion dollars. Its still unoriginal crap crammed into a gorgeous package.
What film will cameron birth out of his mangina next?
Hey, props to Lovely Bones; I gotta imagine WOM won’t be that hot, but with its also-ran feel and lack of awards support, I had that figured for a depressing 8 mil weekend.
Also good for Denzel and especially THE HUGHES BROTHERS. ELI fades in the stretch and goes out with a whimper, but the first 80 or 90 minutes is pretty awesome, actually kind of classically mounted, paced, and composed. Funny, I so associate Don Burgess with prestige Zemeckis middle of the roadness, I was surprised by how hard he brought the thunder with the grainy, striking, Leone/George Miller-esque shots.
Plus: KUNIS POWER. I was worried that in a grey postapocalypse, she’d be rolling in combat fatigues lobbing grenades the whole time as the trailer promised. Good on the Hughes…es for figuring a way to get The World’s Greatest Ukrainian in a nightie, then later in fuzzy animal slippers. HOT.
Why didn’t Poland interview Kunis for the Eli release? I’d love 30 min of creepy, remote operated HD close-ups with her.
“I dont care if it passes titanic or not. Either way itll be one of jim cameron’s mangina spectacles in the top spot.
Hippie cribbed sci fi garbage. I dont care if it makes 3 billion dollars. Its still unoriginal crap crammed into a gorgeous package.
What film will cameron birth out of his mangina next?”
So, just to update the five basic tastes: salty, sweet, sour, umami, and anghus.
Does anyone know who put together the highlight reel for Scorsese’s tribute last night? Whoever did the rell was a Scorsese fan. (Was it schoonmaker?) The music cues were perfectly timed, especially the “Jumpin’ Jack Flash” cue.
This is from an actual conversation I’ve had:
Friend (reading an article on-line): Cheryl Cole was named the most photogenic woman ever.
Me: Did they I adjust for inflation?
I know, I chuckled too.
Last nite’s Scorsese clip reel was nicely assembled, Jimmy, but where the hell was “New York, New York”?
It’s one of Scorsese’s most enduring masterpieces, and definitely deserved place of pride over such lesser works as “Bringing Out the
“Dead,” “Cape Fear,” “Casino,” “Kundun” and yeah, even “The Departed.”
Wow, Daybreakers lost almost 70% even with an additional day?
The biggest issue I’ve had with the Scorcese’s tribute, which really was quite nicely edited (but then again, they always are) is how long it was – as in, much longer than any I’ve seen. And the “Shutter Island” trailer at the end made it seem indulgent.
Still, a good video tribute.
I can’t imagine something as visually stunning and powerful as Kundun being considered “lesser” anything, but I guess it’s a testament to how high Marty has set the bar with his other films.
If only the critics and awards groups had been as open minded as they were nine years later with Letters From Iwo Jima.
Good line Hallick. It feels like i just got zinged by the New Yorker.
The Scorsese reel was cut by Stephen Garrett and Christy Wilson of NYC’s Kinetic Trailers. As seen on YouTube!
how long after 1pm is the analysis going to show up?
Ugh. I love Scorsese, but New York, New York is such an awkward mix of Taxi Driver and Hollywood musicals. It’s not surprise that Marty was coked out while he made it.
For what it’s worth, he was coked out for The Last Waltz as well, and that movie is amazing.
I found it interesting that both New York New York and Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore got the total shaft (apart from the title in the opening montage). You’d think Liza’s performance of “New York New York” or Ellen Burstyn’s Oscar-winning role would have allowed it a spot in the clip reel.
I did really like the reel though. Very nicely done and I was so happy that they included Sandra Bernhard in The King of Comedy (my third favourite Scorsese picture). She gives one of my absolute favourite performances of the ’80s there. So deranged.
MAN DIES AFTER WATCHING AVATAR
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/movies/man-died-after-watching-avatar/story-e6frfmvr-1225821333043
For those tracking, the last film responsible for killing members of the audience: I Love Trouble
So the man in question dies 11 days after watching of a stroke caused by excitement? I guess he should have watched Imaginarium instead.
“Of course, the question of whether it is a cultural phenomenon is more than gross dollars. I agree. But this speaks to my sense that neither The Dark Knight or Shrek 2 nor Pirates 2 were true social phenomena.”
Exactly.
Cultural phenomenon??? I posit that Titanic, despite it’s gross and attendance is not a cultural phenomenon. What evidence do we have in our pop culture of its impact? It’s not like SatNightFever and the disco era or Jaws or even Flashdance’s leg warmers….
Grease is a phenom. From stage to film to stage to kareoke….
I think Shrek was, at least for the younger set. It was an obsession for quite awhile…people were even buying those nasty blue and green ketchups. I agree on the other 2 though…I think Avatar will wind up more in the vein of “Jurassic Park,” which has arguments for and against as far as it being a phenomenon. I certainly had some JP toys when it came out.
I agree on the dollars portion. Was E.T. a phenomenon despite the egregious amoung of money it made?
I know I’m probably late to this party but, to me, the main opportunity “Avatar” is creating is to hose ticket buyers. Is this going to turn into a get-more-money-out-of-the-super-interested model — for instance, charging an extra couple bucks the first weekend a movie opens because the studios know the rabid have demonstrated they’ll pay it?
Would inspiring a fashion craze qualify a film for “phenomenon” status? If so, count Bonnie and Clyde and Annie Hall in that group.
Chris, Avatar isn’t hosing anyone. There are other options to see the movie if audiences choose.
E.T. was definitely a phenomenon. You had quotes from it all over, it made Reece’s Pieces what they are today, etc.
BP, I didn’t say it was, but that it might be creating opportunities for other movies to hose ticketbuyers (and, incidentally, the only way to get the full “Avatar” experience is to pay the upcharge). I just wonder how long it is before an in-demand movie decides to see what happens if, say, they tack a two-buck surcharge on the weekend it opens.
I’m going to beg DP’s indulgence and post a link to my blog, simply because I don’t want to post something this freakin’ long here that deals only indirectly with the question — AVATAR: PHENOM OR NOT.
http://movingpictureblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/rip-erich-segal-1937-2010.html
Avatar is Jurassic Park. Go back, think about 1993, and think about what people have been going on about with Avatar. Now think of Jurassic Park and it’s place now in current culture. What’s it remembered as? An effects movie.
No one remembers the raptors opening doors, Sam Neill running around, or Sam Jackson being in the damn film with Newman. All they remember are the FX and that will be the same with Avatar. It will be a movie kids remember but not fondly once they grow up and realize how goofy it is. Old people will see it in 2D, and that will be about that for Avatar with them. It’s already failed with some adults because it’s lame and tired.
What this movie will never have is Heath Ledger’s performance as Joker, a young Leo banging a young Kate, a small farm boy learning of a bigger world that he must save, or a woman and a man dealing with the Civil War in Georgia. All this movie has is it’s effects and 3D. Take it away and what you have is Dances With Wolves and that movie will always be better than this one. You never got a White Man speech RILING UP THE TROOPS IN THAT ONE!