Friday Estimates by Klady – Avatar vs The Wing Men
Legion is, typically, a Sony Screen Gems piece that got dragged around for a bit… and the marketing dept. opened the thing to the mid-20s anyway.
Not so much luck for CBS Films’ Extraordinary Measures, which is going to struggle to see a cume of $20 million domestically. (It may actually improve overseas, with the value of Fraser & Ford increasing.) Terrible campaign and a movie whose clips all suggest that it was made on sets from ER on the weekends.
For me, the biggest surprise is the poor opening of The Tooth Fairy. Yes, the Friday number will have a nice multiple for the weekend with as much as $12 million. But after a $23m start for The Game Plan and $18.6m for Are We There Yet?, this number kinda sucks. From my perspective – and it may be limited – Fox didn’t sell the entire story arc, just certain gags… and none of them were that great. The Rock in a tutu was just not enough.
Oh… and that little Avatar thing. Another weekend record – for Weekend 6 – though it’s about to start falling behind Titanic in this stat, probably next weekend. It’s been running ahead of Dark Knight domestically for about a week as the fastest grosser ever, right now about $45 million ahead for 36 days. $1.75 billion worldwide will be passed this weekend… which means it will have doubled the gross of any movie not in the Top 20 all-time, including Spider-Man and Trannys 2. It also puts the film less than $100m away from Titanic. In fact, it may pass Titanic’s international record this weekend… and that record was a full $500 million more than any other movie before, putting it well past adjusted gross and 3D bump range, especially since international grosses for the older movies were tiny by percentage of total gross in comparison to the post-70s era.
“Legion” opened much better than I expected; it should becomes another good maker for Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions Group (which bought “Legion” and then sent it to Screen Gems)
“The Tooth Fairy” opened worse than I expected (The Rock’s star power and Fox’s distribution led me to have higher expectation)
“To Save a Life” opened respectfully, but it looks like this film won’t have “Fireproof”-like result.
correction formy first post: [ “Legion” opened much better than I expected; it should becomes another good moneymaker for Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions Group (which bought “Legion” and then sent it to Screen Gems) ]
All the distribution power and star power won’t get any young boys to see a movie about The Rock in a tutu. You can show all the hockey stuff you want, but…
THE TOOTH FAIRY looked like a SNL parody of a family film.
Every time I drive by an Extraordinary Measures billboard I laugh at how constipated Brendan Fraser looks. I’m assuming that’s not the medical condition featured in the movie.
Measures just looks so cheap. I know it’s a CBS film, but at least make it look like a movie and not a made for TV movie. Those lame specials that would run on CBS during the weekend didn’t instill any confidence either.
Measures looks performance driven and free of excess. That’s exactly what a film of that kind should look like.
Fuck the haters, the movie doesn’t look any worse than “My Sister’s Keeper”.
You can make a performance driven movie and not have it look like cheap garbage though. Even an Apatow movie like Funny People can look really nice when you have a good DP. The weird thing is, the DP has done other good work before, what happened this time?
so….
nothing on your website about
the passing of the great Jean Simmons.
what did she ever do to you?
Avatar will pass TDK today, the worldwide for TITANIC by Monday or Tuesday. But with another less than 20% drop this weekend, only the discovery that watching it decreases penis size in men and breast size in women will keep it from toppling TITANIC from the domestic No.1 position.
It will be at $550M Sunday and $562M Thursday. After next weekend, AVATAR should be exiting January with about $590M.
So my question is, DP, why be coy about the fact that in February it will become the highest grossing film of all time on both charts. And Cameron becomes the first director to have both the first and second films on those lists.
Unless someone doubts it can make that last $11M…
watching it decreases penis size in men
There would still be an open market for such a film:
http://failblog.org/2010/01/22/subject-fail/
The Dark Knight today, Titanic on February 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. That news along with the Oscar nominations on the same day? SYNERGY OVERLOAD.
“You can make a performance driven movie and not have it look like cheap garbage though.”
It doesn’t look like garbage. People using terms like that completely unreasonably simply destroy any point they are trying to make. Enough of making overstatements for the sake of effect already. People who go to see Ford and Freiser will get exactly what they expected.
“Even an Apatow movie like Funny People can look really nice when you have a good DP. ”
“The weird thing is, the DP has done other good work before, what happened this time? ”
Most people seem to have a problem with how the movie is lit and not with how it’s shot (at least that’s the impression I got). People think TV that’s TV like lighting eqauls cheepness. I think there’s more to it.
That doesn’t make any sense. What do you mean by “even”? Yes, let’s have Janusz Kaminski shoot every movie. That’s an idea.
I don’t think it decreases penis size, not with all that sideboob.
Only about $144 million to go to beat Titanic worldwide.
“And Cameron becomes the first director to have both the first and second films on those lists.”
Not on the worldwide list he did not (and it probably happened more then twice, too).
“Not on the worldwide list he did not (and it probably happened more then twice, too).”
Are you under medication, he has that distinction RIGHT NOW.
And “probably happened” = “I don’t know.”
Gonzo, do you have a cousin with the initials D.Z. by any chance…?
“he has that distinction RIGHT NOW.”
Of course he does. All I said was that wasn’t the FIRST to have do so. Read the comment I was replying too.
And medication? Obnoxious much?
Do you have a retarded cousing who goes bt leahz?
Yes Gonzo, the audience of 60 year old women who are attracted to Extraordinary Measures will get exactly what they wanted…a movie that looks exactly like a cheap movie made for Hallmark. I can’t argue with you there.
Lighting a movie flat and with terrible filters is what makes it bad. Of course the tv angles don’t help either. I’d say both how it is lit and how it is shot makes it look terrible. It seriously looks like indies made for 50 grand to me. If it DID look as good as a lot of tv it would still be fine. 24 doesn’t look like shit. Neither does CSI or Law and Order or Mad Men or what have you. I mean, I thought people were overstating things too until I saw the trailer and I was pretty shocked a real movie made for theaters with big names looks that terrible.
Catching “Spider-man” in attendance looks increasingly likely…aka becoming the most attended non-sequel since “Titanic.”
I haven’t seen the film, but I’ve read there’s problems with “Extraordinary Measures” that go beyond the lighting…Ford supposedly gives an uneven performance that consists of give going from calm to flying-off-the-handle insane angry every 10 minutes. Also….. MINOR SPOILER ALERT….theres apparently a bizarre scene where the kids get high off their medicine that comes off as unnecessary and borderline creepy whether it happened or not…..END SPOILERS.
Didn’t Spielberg have #1 and #2 with E.T. and Jurassic Park?
Also, he had the #1 movie 3 times when you add Jaws.
oh, the irony of being called retarded by a pompous tool who spends his time trying to defend the utterly middling, forgettable direction of brett ratner as something more than thoroughly mundane and mediocre, stumping for ‘extraordinary measures’, and various other examples of nitwittery too numerous to mention (note the correct use of the word ‘too’)
As always, attendance is the MOST IRRELEVANT stat in the game.
And it is well past Spider-Man in that dumb stat already. Ticket prices have only gone up 25% since Spider-Man and even adding in the presumed 3D bump, at least 50 million more tickets have already been sold for Avatar than for Spider-Man.
Huh Dave? That’s just not correct at all.
Your personal disdain for comparing attendance of movies released a few years apart aside, Adjusted for ticket price inflation, “Avatar” leads Spider-Man by about 7 million tickets after Friday. But with the 3D bump using your numbers, “Spider-man” leads by about 12 million. Yeah it’s not an axact science, but “Avatar” still trails “Spider-man” by about 18% in attendance.
End of story.
SM – 400M domestic
AVATAR – 552 domestic with an end well north of 600 in sight
SM — 821 worldwide
AVATAR — 1.7Billion and counting
By what possible metric can anyone say more people saw spider man? When all is said and done Avatar will outgross it by a minimum of 50% domestic and will have a worldwide gross more than 150% of Spider Man’s…
That would mean a nine dollar ticket for spiderman would have to cost, what… $22 for Avatar?
Insanity.
On second thought I see that you’re comparing worldwide numbers, which yes I acknowledge it leads far and away by. And which Im sure you know is ridiculous to compare to aside from the last few years due to the streamlining and modernization of international releasing.
For instance, “Titanic” was still receiving box office numbers up until 2008, and wasn’t released in all countries until 6 years after its international release.
http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=3456
That being said, yes, “Avatar” probably entered the weekend 3rd all-time worldwide in attendace and will close it in 2nd place.
Jerry is here…25% increase for ticket price inflation…22-25% increase for 3D price inflation.
This weekend “Avatar” passed LOTR 2 in attendance and “The Sixth Sense.” Right now “Avatar” is neck-and-neck with Revenge of the Sith and Passion of the Christ in attendance, will pass “Spider-man 2” during this week and will surpass “Return of the King” in attendance next weekend.
It needs to do over $640 million to eclipse “Spider-man” in domestic attendance, and that’s a reachable goal.
How much does it need to surpass The Dark Knight so IO will shut the fuck up?
Let me preface this by saying I think this kind of math is bogus — that it heavily undersells the popularity of Avatar. Playing the tickets sold game is foolish but…
Acording to NATO — SM avg ticket price was $5.80. 2008 avg price was 7.18. Giving a generous bump up to $7.40 for 2009 and assuming a 25% bump for 3D/Imax — and assuming ALL ticket sales involved that bump (which we know is false) we can calculate the following…
SM had rougly 69 million “admissions.”
For Avatar to match that it would need to gross $7.40 + 25% 3D/Imax bump * 69 million or…
$9.25 * 69 million = $638.25.
And that’s just for domestic… So yeah, even given this crazy flawed math it seems pretty certain Avatar will get more admissions domestically. And worldwide? It’s left it in the dust ages ago.
I am neither a proponent of Avatar nor a detractor of Spider Man. I’m just an industry professional who LOVES that people are going to the movies in record numbers. To try to parse meaning out of these stats is foolish because there is NO WAY to get accurate admission figures. And frankly, it doesn’t matter. What matters is the bottom line because no one at any of the studios cares about admissions. If they could sell six tix at a cost of one hundred million per, they’d be just as happy.
But people AREN’T going to the movies in record numbers. They’re spending a record amount at theatres due to the hyper-inflation of ticket prices. 2010 had the most admissions…since 2004.
Hollywood can pretend all it want that admissions don’t matter, but the problem with that thinking is that the hyperinflation of tickets and concessions has to continue in order to keep up.
I actually think the public has limits to how much they’re willing to spend on going to the movies unlike industry heads who seem to believe raising ticket prices by 25% in 8 years can continue without consequences. Already I think it’s having an effect on indie cinema.
Part of that is because we’ve seen a mammoth increasing costs. Over a comparable 8 year period, MPAA stats indicate that average negative costs have gone up by ~60% while P&A costs have gone up by ~20% for the majors and a staggering ~180% for minors. That’s one of the reasons why indies are seeing a big squeeze.
It makes sense though – there’s a massive fragmentation of audiences. 25 years ago 35% of households would tune into Dallas and The Cosby Show. The highest rated shows these days only hit ~15%. If you were advertising a movie, you could have reached 80% of the US audience through tv commercials in the 80s. Today, you’d be lucky to get 30%. The coverage you need to get the same reach is growing at a massive rate – you’re having to do far more work to bring in far less numbers.
It’s one of the reasons why people like Ben Silverman get to be movers and shakers – you can only squeeze audiences so much, sooner or later you’re going to need alternative sources of revenue. Yes, he may be a self-absorbed manchild with a questionable programming record, but every now and again he finds a way of making a program more than pay for itself.
I totally agree Foamy, but I just don’t see this continuing forever…exhibitors and studios are arguing that despite record box office revenue ticket prices are STILL going to increase due to decreased DVD revenue. When a family of 4 is paying 65 bucks to see Avatar and get one snack combo at the local multiplex, how much higher can the price get before they decide to stay home, watch online or wait for Redbox?