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David Poland

By David Poland

Box Office Hell – Avatar at #5?


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29 Responses to “Box Office Hell – Avatar at #5?”

  1. LexG says:

    Valentine’s Day = 55-60 million.

  2. Goulet says:

    Have you seen it, Lex? Movie BLOWS.

  3. anghus says:

    Wolfman was just awful.
    Wouldnt it be great if Valentines Day opened to 50 million and then dropped to 5 million next week.

  4. EthanG says:

    I still can’t believe Julia Roberts got paid 3 million for 6 minutes of screen-time.

  5. a_loco says:

    As I said before, if Friday the 13th can do $40 mil with no stars on Friday the 13th, then Valentine’s Day could well do over $50 mil.
    Granted, reviews matter more for a movie like this.

  6. LexG says:

    16.5 MIL FRIDAY.
    Also apparently Percy Jackson and the Long Beach Dub All-Stars CRUSHED Wolfman, so now I’m worried… at your typical multiplex is Wolfman relegated to a mid-sized room instead of the big auditoriums now?
    A lot of ‘plexes have two GIANT presitge rooms, so on weekends like this when there’s three or more huge movies, a perfectly high-profile release can get pushed into the shoeboxes. Weren’t people here saying that happened with Holmes at Christmas?

  7. Stella's Boy says:

    Lex, I saw The Wolfman last night at 7:30, and indeed it was in a mid-size rather than big auditorium.

  8. Geoff says:

    Lex, I’m sure you’re kidding, but can we at least show the proper respect to Julie Roberts and her track record – I’m sure she helped open this more than little Emma.
    And who says that Percy crushed Wolfman? According to the Finkster, both films opened to just over $10 million, yesterday, which is probably right where their studios expected. As for legs, I’m sure Wolfie will fade much faster.
    Looks like a huge weekend all around, with Avatar holding solid again probably in the early ’20’s and Dear John staying in the teens. Wow, and with massive snow all up and down the east cost, no less……

  9. Geoff says:

    One other thing – I’m not a big believer in trailer placement, but I have to think that having Lightning’s trailer attached to just about EVERY copy of Avatar over the past two months might have helped the grosses just a bit – Fox knew what they were doing, though I was still disappointinted they didn’t use the opportunity to build hype for The A Team.

  10. EthanG says:

    Snow….now that all of us in the Mid-Atlantic are just about dug out, I would expect some higher than expected numbers/holds because we all have CABIN FEVER from the last 8 days.

  11. NickF says:

    The amount of money that Valentine’s Day is making or going to make this weekend at least, is disgusting.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    Romantic comedies have existed for a very long time now and will probably continue to exist as long as movies are made. I watched some of He’s Just Not That Into You on HBO recently. It didn’t do much for me, but it’s pretty much exactly what I expected. I’m certainly not disgusted by the fact that it made lots of money. People enjoy fantasies and escapism. I just can’t muster the enthusiasm to get all bent out of shape about the financial success of a generic romantic comedy. Unless Valentine’s Day is truly that much worse than the average rom com and bad on an offensive level.

  13. Josh Massey says:

    “And who says that Percy crushed Wolfman? According to the Finkster, both films opened to just over $10 million,…”
    If those two films had the same numbers on a school-day Friday, then yes, Percy will crush Wolfman.

  14. LexG says:

    Christimas CAME a little early this year.
    And after calling New Moon, Dear John and now Valentine’s Day’s opening numbers with PINPOINT ACCURACY, it is VERY CLEAR that the LEXMAN has his finger on the pulse of young girls everywhere.
    In fact the studios should EMPLOY ME to go out into the field and do some first-person research on the subject. Sort of like how Patrick Goldstein does that column every year where he interviews his neighborhood’s dopey emo kids, they should send me out to some 12th Grade AP English class or drama club to interview all the teen girls.

  15. leahnz says:

    ew, shudder
    yeah, lex’s middle-age man perv obsession with teenage girls ISN’T CREEPY AT ALL!
    (hey, at least you didn’t call anyone “cute ‘bait” in this post, lex, that’s a bit of an improvement)

  16. hcat says:

    Just don’t let your fingers stray any farther than their pulses Lex, and we won’t have to alert any of the authorities.

  17. Foamy Squirrel says:

    That’s some pretty big spreads for weekend predictions.
    V-Day 30 – 50
    Wolfman 17.2 – 35
    Percy 19.6 – 30
    Dear John 15 – 23
    To paraphrase Jon Stewart, “It’s like saying I’m somewhere between 5 and 10 feet tall”
    Not really surprised by the 70% drop by Dear John compared to last Friday, V-Day really took its audience and then some.

  18. Goulet says:

    “it is VERY CLEAR that the LEXMAN has his finger on the ***REDACTED*** of young girls everywhere.”

  19. LexG says:

    I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS, and I will give you the full review later (set your clocks), but HOLY SHIT:
    I went for the ALBA, I came (ZING) for the Biel, I love Hathaway, and Swifty and Emma brought the young stuff… BUT IF WE WERE JUST GOING BY THIS CINEMATIC MASTERPIECE, I’d be on TEAM GARNER; Her character here (and Biel’s to a similar degree) is a good example of how THE LEXMAN LIKES MORE MATURE WOMEN that are close to my age AS LONG AS THEY STILL ACT WINSOME AND DEMURE AND CUTE AND AWKWARD instead of annoying.
    I wish I could be Ben Affleck for a day, or at least 3 or 4 minutes.

  20. LexG says:

    Ranking the Hotness (THIS MOVIE ONLY):
    Garner, Biel, Swifty, Alba, Hathaway, Emma.
    Don’t get me wrong Emma is CUTE and I like her storyline A LOT, but she didn’t get many FUN OUTFITS like she wore in WILD CHILD. And, yeah, she seems maybe a little young in this. But SWIFTY is a TALL DRINK OF HOT and I was grinning EAR TO EAR when they played her song at the end.
    The best part of the movie was I sat next to a gaggle of cute Armenian/Latina 19-ish chicks and when I sat down I was all, “Hey, you guys here for the movie?” like Furst in ANIMAL HOUSE.
    It’s like SHORT CUTS only GOOD and with HOT CHICKS.

  21. EthanG says:

    “If those two films had the same numbers on a school-day Friday, then yes, Percy will crush Wolfman.”
    I would have thought the same thing but “Percy” got a tiny bump on Saturday…granted it’s a 4-day weekend but still…only 1.3 mil more than Friday and only 300k more than Wolfman?? It’s estimated weekend dropped from 50 to 40 million…still better than expected and itll have better legs than Wolfman.
    I wonder if “Valentine’s Day” will become the only movie to ever open to over 60 million in 4 days and not make it to 100 million??

  22. EthanG says:

    Following up, mojo has Percy less than 500k ahead of Wolfman through Sunday. Bad word of mouth?
    How about that 4% 3-day hold for “Avatar.” It’ll finish the weekend with 500 million on the dial domestically, subtracting 3-D/IMAX premiums…

  23. BurmaShave says:

    Watching the rest of you boys try to engage Lex on a normative rational level is like watching people try to tackle Chris Johnson. Hey look I’m on a movie blog and I just made a sports reference! Seriously though, unreal. Lex your box office analysis is chilling. Happy Valentines Day everybody.

  24. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Hrm… when’s the last time there was a box office weekend with 3 new films pulling in over $30mil each?

  25. Stephen Keller says:

    “It’s like SHORT CUTS only GOOD and with HOT CHICKS.”
    This may be the height of Lex’s comments here. That’s pretty funny.

  26. EthanG says:

    “Hrm… when’s the last time there was a box office weekend with 3 new films pulling in over $30mil each?”
    Never! Though this weekend is far less impressive for debuts than back in December (52 mil, 31 mil and 30 mil) vs (Sherlock Holmes 62 mil, Alvin 48 mil, Complicated 22 mil).
    A first nonetheless.

  27. yancyskancy says:

    I’m guessing that VALENTINE’S DAY has less bottomless female frontal nudity than SHORT CUTS.

  28. LexG says:

    Oh my GOD, did anyone else see LEGION???
    She was kind of off my hot list after appearing in THE WORST MOVIE OF THE 00s, aka “Garden Party.” But she’s BACK, super-insanely-hot in LEGION in her LITTLE OUTFITS.
    She’s also Brian DePalma’s daughter, which is a whole other realm of AWWWWWWWESOMENESS.
    She’s like a junior-league Maria Menounous.
    (Cue NO ONE here knowing what I’m talking about or caring. But don’t you guys want to work in film? THESE ARE THE CHICKS WHO REPRESENT YOUR GOAL IN LIFE. THIS IS WHY YOU MAKE MOVIES. TO MEET THIS WOMEN.)

  29. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Especially Leah and Kami, amirite?

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon