MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Box Office by Klady… Is It What Is Seems On The Surface?

The scary ting for Shutter Island is that only three movies have opened to $40m or more and grossed exactly 2x opening or less in modern box office history… and all three were First Quarter genre releases in the last two years… Friday The 13th (2009 Version), Watchmen, and Cloverfield. The question to be answered is, “Is this one of those movies, where fans and thrill seekers piled in on opening weekend and represented virtually the entire audience for the film, or is it something else?”
I am a fan of the movie, so I like to think it’s something else. But word of mouth will tell that tale, not my hopes.
And by the by… there is a good chance that Valentine’s Day may join that group of 2x and under films. After a 60% drop this weekend, another $25m in the bank is not assured. It will probably get there, but just by the hair of its chinny chin chin.
Avatar is the smallest dropper of all films on over 1000 screens… again. $700m domestic should happen this week and $2.5b worldwide will happen before the end of next weekend.
Summit opened The Ghost Writer on the same number of screens they opened The Hurt Locker on last June and actually opened a little stronger… about $25,000. And amusingly enough, Hurt Locker is out on 120 screens and outgrossed the Ghost opening by about $100k.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Oscar parade that is still on screens all seem to be getting some Oscar bump, but dropped in the 25% to 35% range pretty much across the board, except with the modest expansion of The Last Station, which went up in gross.
As it turned out, the 10 Best Picture nominees are split evenly between five $100m+ grossers and five under-$100m grossers. The Hurt Locker is not the lowest grosser of the ten and perhaps the reason for the limited re-release was to keep ahead of the film right behind it, An Education, which is earning well enough in its context, but has a $1.5m gap to close. Bringing up the rear is A Serious Man, the only nominee under $10m domestic, with $9.3m.
I am always pleased to see the Oscars Shorts package doing some business. It may not be a lot, but if they can get to half a million with shorts on just 54 screens – and they likely will – it says good things about people being willing to come out for an aesthetic experience in the movie theater.

Be Sociable, Share!

42 Responses to “Weekend Box Office by Klady… Is It What Is Seems On The Surface?”

  1. Joe Leydon says:

    So does this mean the Friday estimate here for ShutterIsland was a tad low?

  2. David Poland says:

    Klady’s been doing this for more years than anyone else working in the business of box office analysis today. I am happy to have him working for MCN.
    Answer is, Joe, I don’t know. It might have been dead on. This estimate may be millions high. Saturday may have been a big bump.
    Is there some sort of competition going on that I don’t know about, Joe, or are you just feeling the need to drag more people into acting like desperate, competitive children?

  3. Joe Leydon says:

    Uh, David: I asked a simple question. No need for you to go call Drama Queenly on me. I’m curious because if indeed the Friday estimate wasn’t a tad low, then Shutter Island obviously had to have a considerable Saturday bump. And if it did indeed do that opposite the very highly-rated Olympics coverage, I think you could make a case that the movie’s b.o. accomplishment is all the more impressive. Now calm down, take a few deep breaths, hug your wife and child, and consider: A movie you like by a director you admire may be doing better than even you expected. Life is good.

  4. LexG says:

    Enjoy that comfortable opening, Marty, because next weekend GOD is coming to the multiplex.
    Like the mighty Moses creating a flood (or whoever did that, never read the Bible and DON’T CARE), K-STEW is going to split the box office wide open with HANDKERCHIEF POWER.
    45 MIL OPENING NEXT WEEKEND for THE HANDKERCHIEF, at least 10 MIL of which will come from my seeing it at EVERY SINGLE SHOW on Friday, then buying seven tickets for every show on Saturday and Sunday to boost its figures. I have saved up a couple thou just so I can spend the entire week mass-buying tickets for it.
    Also: TENITH BELBIN POWER. Watch today’s numbers go way, way, WAY down, because everyone in America’s DVR is set for “BONER” tonight when BELBIN takes to the ice.

  5. Dave wil buy Joe a bottle of Cutty and we’ll all go back to work to work.
    I have to agree with Joe. I went to a 10:00pm show down here in San Antonio, and it was SOLD OUT. I think Saturday saw a major bump.
    BTW: I finally saw Avatar last night for the first time. I went the IMAX-3-D Experience. I have no problem saying the movie is quite a show. My problem is that Na’vi aren’t really fleshed out. Also, Cameron could’ve easily written a couple of qwuick scenes to provide motivation for the military leaders to go batshit crazy. As it plays, why even bother sending Jake on his mission if they’re going to bulldoze the place anyway. There needed to be more of a give-and-take with the military and the company men.

  6. LexG says:

    I was rooting for Quaritch and Ribisi the entire movie. Not even saying that to be an asshole or to be Jimmy Conway. The Navi are so underdeveloped and such TREE-WORSHIPPING PUSSIES, and Lang and Ribisi were SO AWESOME, it’s not even a fair fight.
    Think about YOUR children and spouses and families; If there was something WIPING OUT THE EARTH AND THEY WERE ALL IN MORTAL DANGER but could be SAVED by some soldiers BLOWING UP A STUPID FUCKING TREE, wouldn’t you WANT *the MIGHTY UNITED STATES* to blow into some backwoods forest and just ANNIHILATE some barely-sentient blue douchebags to SAVE THE DAY?

  7. EthanG says:

    “Dear John” is closing in on becoming the biggest hit of all-time domestically…but all anyone can talk about is how fast it’s fallen. Weird. It’s also the most profitable release of the early year domestically…easily.
    @LexG…since Hankerchief is only opening in 2 theatres next week, that 22.5 million per theatre average will be pretty impressive.

  8. EthanG says:

    *biggest hit of all time for Screen Gems is what I meant.

  9. Rob says:

    Yes, the Oscar nominees have gotten a little boost, but between the shortened DVD window and the expanded list of nominees, it’s nothing like it used to me.
    Even two or three years ago (hell, even last year), it would have been unthinkable for a Nov. release like Precious to only add $2 million after getting the nominations it did. Up in the Air would’ve made a run at $100 million. A Serious Man wouldn’t have hit DVD till March.
    It seems like the only films seriously benefiting this year are the ones whose distribution plan was entirely dependent on scoring one or two acting nods – Last Station and Crazy Heart.

  10. David Poland says:

    Ethan, I think distinguishing Screen Gems in this is a bit of a twist. The marketing line at Sony is a blur. But the fact that this one may catch or pass The Notebook and Brokeback Mountain is more impressive.

  11. Hallick says:

    “Think about YOUR children and spouses and families; If there was something WIPING OUT THE EARTH AND THEY WERE ALL IN MORTAL DANGER but could be SAVED by some soldiers BLOWING UP A STUPID FUCKING TREE, wouldn’t you WANT *the MIGHTY UNITED STATES* to blow into some backwoods forest and just ANNIHILATE some barely-sentient blue douchebags to SAVE THE DAY?”

  12. EthanG says:

    Quick question on “Ghost Writer”….does it have serious expansion plans already in place? Because I can’t remember ever seeing a winter limited release take out a full page ad on a site like Rotten Tomatoes….

  13. For what it’s worth, Ghost Writer is ‘expanding into ten additional markets’ and adding NY/LA screens next weekend. The picture cost $45 million (?!) so I imagine that Summit isn’t going to be happy to just do big per-screen averages on a limited release (unless they are turning into Magnolia).

  14. Michael Bergeron says:

    re the Oscar shorts package … don’t miss LOGORAMA. It’s satirical, hilarious, witty, and deserves to have people talking about it … it’s even better than the Wallace and Grommit short that follows it

  15. leahnz says:

    LOGORAMA, is that a claymation short about a day in the life of a public toilet?
    “As it plays, why even bother sending Jake on his mission if they’re going to bulldoze the place anyway”
    uh, because jake’s purpose is to get in tight with the tribe and convince them to peaceably ‘relocate’ so that the group with delusions of grandeur and bigger weapons can take what they want, mirroring the fate of aboriginal peoples the world over since year dot. the company was always going to take down the tree in order to mine, no question, they just wanted the natives out of the way first because wholesale slaughter doesn’t look good on their report

  16. aris says:

    So I have 2 questions about Shutter Island, after having just seen it.
    Who was that creepy looking old lady we saw in the trailer? I only saw one trailer to not spoil anything for myself, but I thought that SHE was involved in the potential spoilage, if you will. I’m not sure if she ever came back in any shape. If so, what was the point? I assumed she was dead, but who was she?
    Also, many people have said that they saw the ending a mile away, or that at least it was pretty visible from the trailers. What were those hints? And am I dense for not having seen the twist? Was I supposed to see it b/c of the dead children/ghosts? I thought they were the concentration camp kids.
    The fact that the entire ruse was so elaborate, all the way from the opening boat scene, kinda negated my assuming the twist was that HE was who he was looking for. But maybe the fact that the whole ruse was so unbelievabley elaborate was, in itself, kind of unbelievable.
    I don’t know. I think I liked the film. It certainly was well-made. And sometimes that, for me, is good enough for a pass.

  17. doug r says:

    Maybe we need an all-spoiler Shutter Island thread.

  18. mutinyco says:

    Adrian Lyne made a better version of Shutter Island 20 years ago as Jacob’s Ladder…

  19. leahnz says:

    there is a shutter island thread that addresses most of aris’ concerns, the thread is rather vaguely titled ‘a tale of two reviews’

  20. Yet again, people talking about a disappointing Oscar bump without mentioning DVD, which is where the real bump happens for most movies these days. I am glad though that some people are checking out The Last Station. Such a good little movie that one is.
    I also like how some people are always so quick to point out how well a Bollywood titles does because nobody in the mainstream box office analysis circle mentions them, but they never mention how they routinely have some of the biggest week-to-week falls. Has one of these Bollywood entries even cracked $5mil?

  21. omg i can’t believe i forget! where is Celine: Through the Eyes of the World?????

  22. BOisasBOdoes says:

    Sorry Dave, Avatar is not the smallest dropper on 1000+ screens, that’s The Tooth Fairy, unfortunately.

  23. jeffmcm says:

    I hate you, Mutinyco.

  24. mutinyco says:

    But I love you, Jeff…

  25. EthanG says:

    Joe, I hope you got paid double having to sit through the Celine concert film.
    @Kamikaze, Sony chose not to release figures even though it reportedly did well….

  26. Don Murphy says:

    jeffmcm big discussion over at Hollywood Elsewhere about posters who try to fill their empty lives with endless and stupid posts – you seem to be the main topic of discussion. Funny that.

  27. storymark says:

    Which isn’t nearly as fascinating as the case of the successful producer who for some inexplicable reason obsesses over what some nobody says about him on a website. You make Kevin Smith seem like a Zen Master in his ability to gracefully accept criticism.

  28. Don Murphy says:

    storymark– gee whiz nobody was talking about me at all. or you.

  29. The Big Perm says:

    Nobody talks about Don Murphy over there? Hey, it’s just like the REAL Hollywood!
    Ha ha, just kidding Don. Send me some money!

  30. Joe Leydon says:

    Ethan G: I actually like Celine Dion. I can only imagine what sort of review the movie might have received from a Celine hater.
    As for box-office: Can’t speak about elsewhere, but in Houston, tickets were $15 a pop. Not that many folks the night I attended.

  31. christian says:

    That HE thread is hilarious. Wells actually has the cajones to whine about “HE uglies” and “haters” after calling Mo’nique a “lard-ass” “genuine primitive” and of course his references to “Hispanic party elephants” among other bigoted bon mots. He insults his readers on a regular basis and bans those who question his bullying. Priceless.

  32. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Kami’s point re Bollywood begs a serious question: “My Name is Khan” is from Fox Searchlight yet is playing only in the usual Bollywood venues. Why is Fox not putting “Khan” into arthouses and the better megaplexes? The arthouses have nothing but Oscar Bait and the megaplexes have quite a few titles that are long in the tooth. It doesn’t hurt that “Khan” has stirred up turmoil in India.

  33. The Big Perm says:

    It’s because the movie is name checking Star Trek 2 so we all know it’s shit.
    I know DP wants to be the bigger man, but what’s the deal with Wells? Is he as genuinely creepy and gross as he seems from his writings? I very briefly met the guy once, and he seemed okay enough if a bit of a wuss, and later I was shocked that he had a son if you know what I mean. He kind of looked and acted like an old lady.

  34. hcat says:

    Slow expansion Chucky, there might be less oscarbait in the multiplexes later on, you know, after the Oscars.

  35. christian says:

    Big Perm, let’s just say Wells reaps exactly what he sows. The blog rots from the head down. etc.

  36. The Big Perm says:

    Oh, he definitely sucks…it’s hilarious how some of the commenters kiss his ass over there. I don’t look regularly but I was checking out some whiny threads he put up.
    But is he as CREEPY as he seems? Is he REALLY as racist as he seems, or is he joking? Does he literally, when watching a movie he doesn’t like, sit there and make noises and stamp his feet and mutter to himself? Why does he hate fat people so much when I met him, he wasn’t really slim. I know he wanted nude pictures of some actress. He basically seems like a homeless guy who uses the free internet at Panera Bread.

  37. christian says:

    After a friend’s film screening, the first question during the q&a was sheer idiocy, solely designed to provoke the audience into immediately wondering “Who is this asshole?” Which was my initial thought as I turned around to see Jeff Wells. He made up for it by posting a favorable piece, but boy, what a tool. The fact is that he’s a wimp in the flesh and a bully behind the blog. Insecurity 101.

  38. jeffmcm says:

    Wells looks like a homeless guy too, all rumpled and muttering to himself.

  39. hcat, given it’s second week drop a “slow expansion” will NOT be happening to Khan.
    Joe, I’m seeing the Celine Dion movie tomorrow. My mate and I are going to make it into a The Room-style audience participation event and laugh and cry and cheer and throw expensive jewelery at the screen (you KNOW Celine don’t care for flowers being thrown at her stage). When she sings “It’s All Coming Back to Me Now” we’re going to stand up and put our hands on our hearts. It’ll be amazing.

  40. Joe Leydon says:

    Kami: It couldn’t hurt. Actually, if there had been more singing, and less haiography, the movie would have been more bearable. To be honest, I found myself pretty close to pissed when she, her husband and their kid paid a visit to the Sachsenhausen concentration camp near Berlin, just so we could see Celine appearing oh-so-sensitive and deply moved. Later, when the movie switched to a concert in Krakow, I couldn’t help thinking: “Oh, Christ! Now she’s going to take a day trip to Auschwitz and milk the same cow there!”

  41. hahah, oh this is gonna be goood. That woman is beyond ridiculous.

  42. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Heads-up for those in and near New Jersey: The Clairidge Cinema in Montclair will play the Oscar Shorts starting Friday (2/26), a first for that suburban arthouse.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4