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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimate by Klady – Dear Na'vi

Is there more to say?
Hannah Montana The Movie sold more tickets on opening weekend than Dear John.
To Paris With Love‘s opening reminds us just how good Fox’s approach on Taken was. And isn’t it ironic that the sequel to Morel’s first film behind the camera, District B13, also opened this weekend… with a thud? (Magnolia made it nearly impossible to see the film… so I guess they thought it had it coming.)
Decent expansion for Crazy Heart. Sherlock crossed $200m. Ajami and The Last Station showed a little nomination bump on an arthouse scale. An Education and Precious also got small bumps, though they can’t be thrilled with their per-screens.

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46 Responses to “Weekend Estimate by Klady – Dear Na'vi”

  1. Rob says:

    So, when you have 10 nominees, no one gets an Oscar bump. Good thinking, Academy.

  2. The Pope says:

    I’m not sure Rob, whether that was the Academy’s intention when they increased the number to 10. Moreover, is it even the Academy’s responsibility? I thought it was the studios’. In which case, they should simply commission Nicholas Sparks to outline scenarios. Like him or loath him, his stories consistently strike a chord with that o so neglected demographic… women of a certain sensibility.

  3. Joe Leydon says:

    Well, wait a minute: Crazy Heart got a bump, didn’t it? And what about An Education? And Precious? And…
    Aw, screw it, who cares? This is the Weekend of Destiny for the New Orleans Saints. Everything else is insignificant.

  4. There were only so many films that stood to get a bump. The more mainstream nominees (Up in the Air, Blind Side, Avatar, etc) were relatively unaffected. Many of the nominees are already on DVD (Inglourious Basterds, Up, Hurt Locker, District 9, etc). But those smallish films that could be helped (An Education, Crazy Heart, Precious, Last Station), seemed to have gotten a boost. Mission accomplished indeed.

  5. MDOC says:

    Tough one for Pierre Morel. I love Taken, but From Paris With Love, for me, simply had I can wait for the Blu-Ray written all over it.
    I would think this kills Morel’s Dune.

  6. EthanG says:

    Pretty brutal last month for Lionsgate…
    Studio marketshare is pretty irrelevant, but the fact Fox and Warner Bros have an almost 65% share of the box office pie so far this year is remarkable.

  7. David Poland says:

    Why would you even bring up domestic marketshare – which is 98% irrelevant, not just pretty irrelevant – when it is defined by 1 new movie, 3 holdovers from December, and 1 from November.
    Domestically, Avatar is less than $10 million from outgrossing the current grosses of every movie released in 2010 combined.

  8. EthanG says:

    Because when 2 studios have 65% marketshare 35 days into the year I find that to be an interesting stat…is that okay? Fox has above 40% and WB above 20% so major props to 2 studios for almsot single-handedly. keeping this year’s BO on a record-setting pace so far (with an assist to Screen Gems).

  9. LYT says:

    “Hannah Montana The Movie sold more tickets on opening weekend than Dear John.”
    So now “number of tickets sold” matters as a statistic?

  10. EthanG says:

    LYT he’s just trying to further his “tickets sold doesn’t matter whatsoever even when one film sells 62.5 million and the other sells 128.5 million” argument with sarcasm.
    Thought this would be a good time to mention TDK still has a 7 million ticket lead on Avatar through week 8;)

  11. I got a screener of District 13: Ultimatum. It had it coming.

  12. Steven Kar says:

    I really thought AVATAR might have had a good chance to end up with a $750+ mil domestic gross, but not after this weekend.
    Next weekend it’ll come in 4th after WOLFMAN, PERCY, VALENTINE, and DEAR JOHN, and then 2 weeks after ALICE will get all the 3D screens and then 2 weeks after that DRAGON, and then TITANS.
    Best case scenario $725 mil.

  13. LexG says:

    FROZEN POWER. Holy shit was that AWESOME. BOW TO IT. ASHMORE POWER. What a pleasant surprise.
    Also, best credit in a while? “INTRODUCING EMMA BELL.” YEP YEP. More please. HOT. I’d like to introduce her to something and it starts with a B.
    Hey, whose bright idea was it to open a sequel to Pierre Morel’s D13 on the same weekend as Morel’s own virtual remake of the original D13?

  14. razorr says:

    Steven Kar: Best case scenario $725 mil?
    That’s the funniest comment I have seen on this board. To refer to the highest grossing film of all time with a “best case scenario” comment now. After grossing over $2.5 billion, I imagine it has exceeded the best case scenario of all the people who invested in it already.

  15. counthaku says:

    Not sure if I’m interpreting the Hannah “tickets” comment correctly, but-
    wouldn’t Dear John have sold more tickets than Hannah 3D? If John made more than Hannah, and Hannah’s tickets were priced higher (due to 3D) than John’s? (Uh oh, I’m sounding like an SAT math problem)
    Also, can someone refresh my memory as to the marketing campaign for Taken? I don’t remember anything special, and would be inclined to agree with the posters who commented that Paris just looked like a train wreck.

  16. movieman says:

    I rather enjoyed “District 13 Deux”–and it’s a helluva sight easier to sit through than “From Paris to Love” which is pretty much an incoherent botch. (Travolta was a far more entertaining bad guy in Tony Scott’s underloved “Pelham 123” remake last summer.)
    Best movie I saw all weekend was HBO’s “Temple Grandin” with its remarkable performance by Claire Danes.
    “TG” is this year’s “Grey Gardens,” with beaucoup Emmy and Golden Globe wins in its future. You can take that to the bank.
    Who was it that said they thought Uni was dumping “Wolfman”?
    Not getting that vibe at all.
    I am, however, getting the distinct sense that Fox is doing everything they can to distance themselves from “Percy Jackson.” The lack of buzz is positively deafening. For the record, they cancelled two “PJ” Cleveland press screenings in less than 24 hours. And Columbus is a northeast Ohio native.
    Yeah, “Valentine’s Day” is gonna bank major bucks next weekend (not sure about its legs, though), but it’s every bit as terrible as I feared going in. Garry Marshall hasn’t directed a good movie since 1991’s “Frankie and Johnny,” and this ranks among his all-time worst (“Exit to Eden,” “Raising Helen”). Why he continues to get high profile gigs like this when Peter Bogdanovich can’t find a studio directing job to save his life is beyond me. And to think that Marshall had the same Midas Touch as Barry Levinson back in the ’80s. (Speaking of directors who’ve fallen on hard times.)

  17. a_loco says:

    ^ Hannah 3D and Hannah Montana: The Movie are two different entities. Don’t ask me why I remember that.
    EthanG, Can we see your math on the TDK comparison?
    FPWL was actually pretty good. Travolta wasn’t as wacky as reviews made him out to be (apart from his appearance), the action was well-done, the movie was aware of its genre limitations and was able to play with them a little bit. Could have done without the “Royale with Cheese” joke, though.

  18. CleanSteve says:

    Saw AVATAR again this weekend. Took my 7 y/o daughter and she was mesmerized. And she “got it”, i.e. Sully being elated he could walk and found a place for himself, and nature defending itself. I liked the movie even more. Not going to bother going over it again. Both camps are entrenched and I respect it. But I found it slightly more spiritual than before. I truly, truly believe that is where the connection truly is for millions.
    Side note: just about every one in front of my and my girls were seeing DEAR JOHN. And then signs started going up that it was sold out for the next 2 showings. That’s when I knew….Plus, the embarrassed, distraught looks on the faces of the guys as she shelled out for those tickets was sad. Hope they all got a little something something. I’m married so it takes more than a movie to get that. Birthday is coming up. Fingers crossed.
    Oh, one more thing. the COP OUT trailer played before AVATAR. It played…in French. I laughed. Having seen the commercial 100 times I knew every word. Seemed even less funnier in French. But the manager is a friendly acquaintance and he said everybody asks about it. Studio made a mistake but they are locked into showing whatever they send. Sort of lame but it was amusing.
    Next weekend I see WOLFMAN disappointing. And the folks who have mocked and underrated PERCY JACKSON will be eating their words. It smells like a surprise hit to me. Been nothing really for the age group since Christmas. And the books are huge. If I’m wrong,well, what else is new. But don’t discount this at all. I have no idea how it’s “tracking,” but who cares.
    And it looks like a real quality piece of fantasy filmmaking. It doesn’t look cheap like THE DARK IS RISING. And it looks better than SPIDERWICK which I liked.
    Beware that movie. It may actually hit AVATAR business more than you think. Youngsters hungry for fantasy have something else now.
    FPWL looked like cheap, DTV junk. Wife went for Travolta but I had no interest.
    I really really hope THE CRAZIES is good.

  19. CleanSteve says:

    I disagree on PJ, movieman. Amongst my daughter and her friends they are counting the minutes.
    What does that mean as a whole? Not much. But if I’m wrong I owe you a Coke.
    If anything, it’s got my daughter reading Greek & Roman mythology, which makes me proud. I took a class or 2 in college and got some of my better grades. Always have loved that stuff.

  20. leahnz says:

    ‘valentine’s day’ ads are on telly here aprox. every 4 minutes. they must have a helluva marketing budget behind that puppy
    personally i’d rather unblock a clogged toilet with vigorous plunger action for 2 hrs — unless by some miracle it becomes ‘valantine’s day MASSACRE’ with al capone’s guys bursting in with tommy guns blazing to cut down all the lovesick shiny people in a deafening gale of homicidal gunfire. that i might go see. i don’t thing garry marshall’s got it in him tho

  21. leahnz says:

    “But I found it slightly more spiritual than before. I truly, truly believe that is where the connection truly is for millions.”
    i agree (my boy now insists on thanking our food before we eat for giving its life so that we may live, na’vi-style. it’s very sweet)
    i too am looking forward to ‘the crazies’

  22. EthanG says:

    a_loco Ive posted my math numerous times.
    Look it up for a more detailed explanation, but the gist is you subtract 3-4% (id go with 3% because it makes up for the minor inflation between TDK and Avatar’s releases) off TDK for its Imax release…and 25-27% off Avatar for 3D/Imax premiums (DP agrees with this figure). The films were released a year apart…there is no question through 8 weeks of release TDK had sold several million more tickets…7 million is the most accurate number…this certainly is not rocket science when comparing films released a year apart.
    So anyway through 8 weeks without 3D, Avatar would be about $50 million behind TDK. It’s up to the individual whether this is relevant or not.

  23. leahnz says:

    i don’t *think* garry marshall’s got it in him tho
    if i could post just a single comment here without a glaring typo, it would be a stone cold miracle

  24. martindale says:

    The Hannah Montana Movie sold more tickets than Dear John. If you’re talking about the 3D concert thing, there’s no way that could have, as tickets were $15 for that.

  25. CleanSteve says:

    Cameron apparently claims it’s grossed $250 million from IMAX. He said so at SBIFF, claims AICN. No reason to believe it isn’t true.
    Personally, I think both sides — pure dollars v. tickets sold v. inflation — have merit. But also of merit is the fact that it’s connected, it has legs, and it is forward-thinking technologically. I don’t know if 3-D is a fad. Time will tell. I like 3-D but if everything is in 3-D then the novelty factory is gone. CLASH OF THE TITANS and the last 2 POTTER movies do not have to be in 3-D.
    I’ve contributed to the bitching and moaning, but have reached a point where I’d rather celebrate that a medium I love continues to thrive even in these times. People WILL come out. People still LOVE movies, even if we all don’t love the same movies. That’s cool. And it’s cool there are still people pushing the envelope. Consider the ages of Lucas, Spielberg, Scorcese, Coppala….it’s easy to be down on them now but how much longer do we have with them? Not sure of Cameron’s age but same thing. I use this to make points all the time but people crapped on my beloved Ramones….until Joey died. You always assumed they would be there and then one day they weren’t.
    At least take something positive from AVATAR even if you don’t like.
    Now pardon me as I step down from my soap box.

  26. EthanG says:

    Martindale you mean it sold less than right? With the 3D premium, no chance Montana sold more than Dear John. Dear John is now the top opening for Super Bowl weekend all-time, and top opening for a romantic drama all-time…unless you count Pearl Harbor.

  27. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Leah – you might get lucky, some prankster may have replaced the print with the 2001 “Valentine” movie.

  28. movieman says:

    Steve- You may be right about “Percy Jackson” being one of those stealth type hits. I confess to knowing zero about the books, but I don’t have any kids under the age of 10 living with me. But the few times I’ve actually seen the (not-great) trailer in a theater–including with “Avatar” over the Xmas holidays–the audience reaction was underwhelming to say the least.
    Fox has definitely cut costs in their marketing campaign, though. You’d almost swear they were ashamed of it or something (and this is from the same studio that brought us “Squeakquel” and “Tooth Fairy” in recent months).
    “Wolfman” looks like fun: Benicio, Emily Blunt, hambone Hopkins (thank **d it isn’t Ben frigging Kingsley!), and an “R” rating. What”s so terrible about that?
    I can’t decide whether “Valentine’s Day” is worse than “The Ugly Truth” and “Old Dogs;” or merely just as bad. One thing it does prove is that Taylor Lautner is not ready to headline his own movie. Dude can’t walk and chew gum at the same time, let alone act. Sure he’s “pretty” (in a sexless, denatured New Kids on the Block sort of way), but he’s also singularly vacuous and looks completely lost on screen without vampires, werewolves and/or Kristen Stewart to make him appear more interesting than that “D” student teenager who lives down the block.

  29. leahnz says:

    “Dude can’t walk and chew gum at the same time”
    lol, movieman. sack of hair territory
    (foamy, i never saw ‘valentine’ but is it blood-soaked and outrageously, graphically gory? that would be amusing)

  30. a_loco says:

    Honestly, if Friday the 13th can open to $40 mil with no stars just because it opens on a Friday the 13th, then I can honestly see Valentine’s Day with all the stars opening to over $50 mil next week.
    Expect a huge jump on Sunday, and expect the Sunday weekend estimates to be way off due to lack of precedents.

  31. Foamy Squirrel says:

    I haven’t seen it, but apparently someone kills Denise Richards so that’s a point in its favor.
    Having said that, looking over its cast list – the names/faces that you recognize and those you don’t – it looks like it probably shouldn’t be too hard to work out the killer. Given that Katherine Heigl was doing Roswell at the time, I suspect it’ll be a relatively tame “Scream” knockoff.

  32. I’d rather watch Valentine’s Day than sit through Valentine again. That was bad enough the first time. Truly terrible. I thought He’s Just Not That Into You was better than most, but Valentine’s Day just looks really bad. So many stories that they probably only get one act of a three-act structure each.

  33. BTW, in regards to an “oscar bump”, we’re in a time when everyone knows 4/5 of the nominees in each category months in advance. People have had plenty of time to know Up in the Air was going to be a factor and so on.

  34. counthaku says:

    I’m really confused about the Hannah thing.
    At first I thought it was a comparison of female-skewed movies opening on Super Bowl weekend. But then Hannah the Movie was NOT released on Super Bowl weekend (Hannah 3D was), so I have no idea what the comment was supposed to prove. Furthermore, it seems strange to me to definitively assert Hannah made more than John in their opening weekends. I mean, Hannah made 32.3 million its opening weekend vs. John’s estimated 32.7! Is that based on the fact that Hannah sold more non-Saturday/Sunday tickets? Or accounting for inflation (from April 2009 to February 2010)? Why are the two being compared in the first place??

  35. David Poland says:

    I agree with you, Haku. (Of course, we don’t actually know what the Dear John number will really turn out to be.) That was my point. Irony.

  36. Life&DeathBrigade says:

    630 – 250 = 380. Yeah, it really connected with people. More people connected with Transformers 2. That’s what happened and Cameron confirms it. Thank you. Come again.

  37. Life&DeathBrigade says:

    630 – 250 = 380. Yeah, it really connected with people. More people connected with Transformers 2. That’s what happened and Cameron confirms it. Thank you. Come again.

  38. Life&DeathBrigade says:

    630 – 250 = 380. Yeah, it really connected with people. More people connected with Transformers 2. That’s what happened and Cameron confirms it. Thank you. Come again.

  39. Life&DeathBrigade says:

    630 – 250 = 380. Yeah, it really connected with people. More people connected with Transformers 2. That’s what happened and Cameron confirms it. Thank you. Come again.

  40. Life&DeathBrigade says:

    630 – 250 = 380. Yeah, it really connected with people. More people connected with Transformers 2. That’s what happened and Cameron confirms it. Thank you. Come again.

  41. EthanG says:

    Ok…Hannah’s Concert 3D film opened Super Bowl Weekend…contrary to DP’s sarcastic statements it opened with fewer tickets sold. DP is only bringing this up to antagonize me. Case closed.

  42. EthanG says:

    Ps Life and Death…. Avatar is closer to 470 million in non-3D bucks…it’s also already 3rd ALL TIME domestically factoring out just the 3D/IMAX premium

  43. leahnz says:

    hi io! clever disguise
    again for the maths challenged:
    if revenues from imax are $250, you can’t subtract $250 from box office totals because an imax ticket consists of what would be a regular-priced ticket with an imax bump on top. if you want to subtract the bump because of some anal fixation, fine, but subtracting all imax tickets from box office is simply RETARDED

  44. leahnz says:

    just to be clear: life&death = io

  45. Cadavra says:

    Speaking of sneaking into town and no marketing, I was stunned Friday when I saw a capsule review of Jackie Chan’s SHINJUKU INCIDENT in Friday’s L.A. Times. no ad or anything anywhere. I had to go on-line to find out where it was playing. The only theatre within 20 miles was the AMC Burbank. I went Saturday to the 12:30 PM show. There was only ONE OTHER PERSON in the theatre–a middle-aged Asian woman. Proving again that stars mean nothing: no marketing, no audience.
    P.S.: Darn good picture, too. Nice to see Jackie in ultra-serious mode for a change.

  46. movielocke says:

    where the hell is Ajami playing? Three theatres in NYC? I couldn’t find it anywhere in LA.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4