Conan Finds His New Home
The Fox deal was never going to happen. It was obvious from the first time it was floated.
It wasn’t a particularly good idea for Fox, given the pressure that would be on the show, the fight for affiliates, and the inevitable 4th or 5th place ratings in the slot.
Here’s why it makes more sense for everyone on cable.
1. Multiple showings – Conan, like Lopez now and Adult Swim on Cartoon Network, will run twice, showing on each coast at 11p, but also, in the east, at 2 am, and in the west, at 8p… prime time.
Adult Swim, which is a cable monster in O’Brien’s primary demo, runs 4 hours long, from 10p-2a and 2a-6a in the east, 7p-11p and 11p-3a in the west. So even besides time shifting, which is normal for this demo, there is also the opportunity to watch the entirety of both shows/blocks in real time. Ironically, O’Brien will – if the Adult Swim schedule doesn’t change – be up against Fox Animation Domination repeats, Family Guy and King of the Hill.
And by the way… what is the current TBS lead-in to the Lopez Tonight slot that O’Brien is filling? A 3 hour block of – taa dah!!! – Family Guy! (NF/WME blame the lead-in, which will be less than half of what Leno at 10’s numbers were… just a reminder about how fallacious that argument was.)
Also ironic is the fact that Conan and Adult Swim are owned by the same conglomerate – Time-Warner – and have home offices in the same building in Atlanta.
2. Lower Ratings Expectations – Lopez Tonight gets around 1.3 million viewers each night. If Conan can deliver 2 million in the same slot(s) – a little over 2/3 of what O’Brien did at The Tonight Show – he will be a great success for TBS. If he did a 2 for Fox after the affiliates gave up slots, there would be a revolution amongst affiliates that made the NBC fight over the Leno 10p show look timid.
That said, 2 million viewers is not guaranteed. He was doing just under that when he left Late Night on NBC. He should be able to match the number, but you never know.
While I wouldn’t expect O’Brien to help Lopez’s ratings much, I do think Lopez can keep his audience and his job.
Fact is, they are a terrible pairing. 60% of Lopez’s viewers are hispanic and black. What percentage of that audience do you think will watch Conan O’Brian, the whitest man on television? Moreover, tonally, Lopez would be a better fit after Leno and Fallon would be a better fit after O’Brien.
3. No Affiliates To Seduce – Steve Koonin has a big advantage over the networks… no affiliates to coddle. This is yet another reason why I expect the network affiliate system to be dissembled within the next decade.
4. The Only Real Choice – Perhaps there might have been a deal to be made with Comedy Central or the home I once suggested, MSNBC, but given his ratings at NBC, there was no network slot for Conan O’Brien at 11 or 11:30. Just not happening. All that chatter that O’Brien didn’t have a long enough chance to prove himself was laughable spin. He had a lot longer than any network series. And most importantly, he delivered almost exactly what his career numbers would have you expect.
It’s interesting how downplayed one other factoid is… the show will only run 4 nights a week, Monday thru Thursday. So not only is there a very good chance that O’Brien’s numbers will be lower than they were on Late Night, but he will have one less night on the air, virtually assuring, in spite of multiple airings, that his weekly audience will be substantially lower than they were in NBC’s 12:30 slot.
But you know, WME really did it’s job. It smeared Leno effectively, creating false perceptions on both sides of this story that have stuck. And it’s gotten O’Brien as much as $50m in cash for delivering less than he did in the 12:30a slot on NBC. Good agenting!
His agents got him The Tonight Show in the first place, right? If so and then this, then they are really good.
Your persistent Leno bias is still annoying.
What’s the Poland/Leno bias?
I wonder what the numbers for online viewers are. I’m guessing lots of these are Conan’s viewers as well Daily Show viewers.
Honestly, I watch the Daily Show regularly, but I’ve not watched it on a television in over five years. Do the Nielsens even take this viewership into consideration as all my favorite shows are enjoyed through Hulu, downloads, etc.?
About 5.6 on the biasometer.
DP doesn’t have a Leno bias, he just really disagreed with the pro-Conan argument. Sort of reminds me when everyone thought DP hated Brokeback Mountain and loved Crash. He actually just thought Mountain was over-rated and over-cheered for and he hated Crash. That fair DP?
I also never thought FOX was a viable option with the re-run syndication / affiliate tussle just looming there. For me, the story won’t be comparing his ratings to Leno / Letterman / Kimmel, it’ll be the Daily show and Colbert Report crowd. a fiercely loyal audience.
palmtree, I’m right there with you. There are so many shows I mainly watch on hulu or their website.
I started to react to the accusation of bias… then I realized that it was just J-Mc pissing up a tree. Saved me some time.
That “multiple showings” premise is half-true. TBS has a separate Pacific Time feed, so if people in Cali want to see Conan it’ll be at 11 PM and 2 AM local.
FWIW Adult Swim airs on Cartoon Network, which also has a separate Pacific Time feed.
I am (was) a Letterman guy so I never had a dog in the Leno/Conan fight, but it always seemed to me DP’s take on the whole thing was strictly business related. Am I wrong? Leno sucks, but he’s good business for NBC.
Conan gets the slot he deserves. His is nothing more than niche shtick.
Never thought I’d say this but Wrecktum is 100% right.
Now can we finally get back to talking about Conan The Barbarian?
How dare you! Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s schtick is far from niche, I assure you!
Sorry, Chucky… was thinking with a DirecTV brain, where we just have the east coast feeds of all the Turner nets. I will be able to see Conan, as I can now see Lopez, at 8p in Los Angeles.
People watch Lopez?
Lopez is staggeringly unfunny.
I’m always 100% right, aris.
David, sometimes I just don’t understand where you’re coming from, since you constantly seem to be reacting (self-righteously) to some nebulous outside world of liars and poseurs, and when you go on one of your inevitable crusades, it reads like you’re being unfair and biased.
Or, you actually are.