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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady (Slow & Date-y)

So Date Night is looking at an opening pretty much in line with The Bounty Hunter, It’s Complicated, Julie & Julia, Bride Wars, What Happens in Vegas, Fool’s Gold, etc, etc, etc.
In other words, same shit, same market, pretty predictable opening result, having little to nothing to do with quality.
Truth is, neither Carrell nor Fey have any real history in this kind of position in this kind of movie. Fey actually is a step up on Carrell with Baby Mama, which opened to $17.4m… pretty close.
There is nothing surprising or particularly defining of Clash of the Titans in a 67% 1stFriday-to-2ndFriday drop. Both Bond and Twilight 1 had similar Friday drops last year from a similar opening gross. I’m not defending the movie. Just saying that it would be easy – and wrong – to make Friday’s number into a big drama.
15 days in, Dragon – as Paramount marketing is calling it – is still running slightly behind Monsters Vs Aliens domestically… and slightly ahead internationally.
The new Tyler Perry, like all Tyler Perry, has a big second Friday drop. This one is a little steeper, but…
Letters To God is yet another Jesus flick released to around a million dollars. Until it gets past $4 million domestic…
And now that I have wasted all of our time… I bid you a fine fare thee well.

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21 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady (Slow & Date-y)”

  1. Chel says:

    Just watched the Clash of the Titans. I thought Alice was pretty bad… I don’t know why some of the actors wanted to be in this movie. Why, Neeson and Fiennes… Did they need money this bad?

  2. Chel says:

    From imdb
    Liam Neeson took a role in this film because his sons are big fans of Greek mythology.
    I guess it is his children’s fault.

  3. Geoff says:

    Dave, I know this is become old hat to you, but the fact is that we could see a mid-April weekend where five films gross over $10 million and three films gross over $25 million – seven or eight years ago, that would have been close to a record-breaking weekend any time of the year. Now it’s just “eh” in April.
    All I’m saying that the big news is that literally after decades of the studios talking up the “year-round schedule,” it’s actually finally happening. Alice could end up grossing over $340 million while Dragon could crack $200 million and they both came out in March??? Pretty impressive.

  4. mutinyco says:

    This is completely unrelated.
    But I just watched the original Fame for the first time in forever. It really struck me that as much as any movie, it really was a dividing line between the ’70s and ’80s.
    On the one hand, it was this kind of gritty, plotless, NYC-set character study. But on the other, it was filled with slick musical interludes promoting its hit soundtrack.
    You can really see one type of filmmaking ending and the next beginning.

  5. Tofu says:

    Date, Titans, and Dragon are all 1 million away from one another. Looks like we have a three way race.
    If Dragon takes #1, then this ‘ol non-event weekend just became sizzling.

  6. Tofu says:

    Plus there is the possibility that while opening $16 million behind Monsters vs Aliens… Dragon now has a shot at ending $16 million ahead.
    Toot tooooot.

  7. Joe Leydon says:

    Julie & Julia was shit? I beg to disagree.

  8. Joe Leydon says:

    BTW: A few people on this blog have expressed a desire to see, or a fondness for, Hal Ashby’s 8 Million Ways to Die. So here’s a head’s up: It’s on IFC Sunday night.

  9. LexG says:


  10. jeffmcm says:

    Is there anything David won’t dismiss?
    And I ask this out of love and respect. It’s getting out of hand.

  11. The Pope says:

    Jeff, I don’t think David is necessarily dismissing the films. Rather he is saying that the figures, dropping or opening, are all in line with what has gone before. In other words, non-events.

  12. Josh Massey says:

    Steve Carell has the most misspelled name since Gandhi.

  13. movieman says:

    I actually thought “Date Night” might open in the low-30s.
    Loved the first 20 minutes, but–like most everyone else–was a tad deflated when it kicks into “action comedy” mode. Fey and Carell are so insanely likable, though (and carry so much goodwill from their NBC sitcoms) that you stick with it anyway. The uber-cool supporting cast (Marks Ruffalo and Wahlberg, James Franco, et al) and svelte 88-minute running time certainly helps.
    Any guesstimate on how “Kick-Ass” is going to open next weekend (I’m thinking $20-million minimum)? Finally saw it Thursday nite and was pleasantly surprised that it (mostly) lives up to expectations. It feels like a cross between a wittily profane (early, good) Kevin Smith or Judd Apatow movie mixed with the snarky ultra-violence of “Kill Bill” circa Tarantino. Loved its audacity, and full-throttle embrace of the “R” rating. My only real caveat was that the direction lacked any real sense of style or personality. And where the hell did they shoot it? The “setting” is (apparently) New York City and environs, but it didn’t look like any NYC I’ve ever seen in real life or the movies. The breakout star will definitely be Chloe Grace Moretz who comes off like the spawn of Uma Thurman’s Bride/”Bill” character. I’ve got a hunch that “K-A” could very well turn out to be one of the seminal, defining films of today’s high school/college-age demo much like “Pulp Fiction,” “Clerks,” “The Usual Suspects” and their ilk were for the previous generation.
    On a completely unrelated note, I was happy to see “Letters from God” tank–for any number of reasons.

  14. torpid bunny says:

    Is “Letters from God” the Sarah Palin movie?

  15. Chucky in Jersey says:

    No, it’s the latest flick to get the endorsement of the pro-censorship/pro-blacklisting Parents Television Council.
    @LexG: Focus should have taken “Greenberg” at least semi-wide and reworked all promotion. Star power brings in moviegoers. Name-checking a film that was confined to the arthouse ghetto does not.

  16. Eric says:

    Whoa whoa whoa. What’s the difference between name-checking and star power? Stars have names, right?

  17. Chucky in Jersey says:

    “Ben Stiller is Greenberg” –> star power –> crossover potential
    “From the acclaimed director of The Squid and the Whale” –> name-checking –> FAIL

  18. Eric says:

    So is name-checking only wrong when it’s ineffective? I’ve always gotten the impression that you disagree with it as a matter of principle.

  19. Chucky in Jersey says:

    Damn right. It’s become a crutch for Hollywood.

  20. leahnz says:

    but where does the ‘legion of doom’ fit in?

  21. The Big Perm says:

    Chucky’s mommy name checks him when she says “retard.”

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon