Weekend Box Office by Klady (Actuals Mal Look Different In Rear View Mirror)
So is Clash of the Titans really doing more than 3x Friday this weekend? Dubious.
Last weekend, putting the late Thursday screenings aside, Clash still only did less than 2.5x Friday over 3 days, dropping 18% from Friday to Saturday. This does not suggest that the film is playing as a kids film. But this weekend, in a battle for a second weekend in first, the studio is estimating the film into that kind of trajectory.
Unlike Clash, the estimate for Date Night wouldn’t actually be surprising off of the Friday number.
And a kids film, like Dragon, is expected to do more than 3x Friday, as kids don’t go to matinees on Fridays in huge numbers, as a rule.
My guess would be that the real numbers are going to be more like Date at 26, Dragon at 25, and Clash at 24. But we’ll see what the “actuals” end up being.
Next…
I keep trying to make the point that the actual grosses of modest studio movies, dramas and simple comedies, are not actually down, but up. The problem is not, as studios keep whining to the media, that dramas aren’t selling. It’s that the studios have been making these movies for 2x and 3x what they should be making them for, making good grosses for the genre into red ink fountains. You shouldn’t always have to be a surprise smash to break even.
Evidence this week is She’s Out Of My League, which screams, “Flop.” But even as it fades to black, it did $30 million domestic. Six years ago, when the similarly themed The Girl Next Door flopped, it grossed just under $15m domestic.
Even in IndieVille, Girl With The Dragon Earring and The Runaways are looking at $3 million-plus domestic. For one thing, only 16 movies last year went on between 125 and 225 total screens in their runs. Of those 16, 5 outperformed what these two films seem likely to do. Two were long-legged docs (The September Issue and Food, Inc.), one was the Almodovar, one was The Brothers Bloom, pushed as a commercial film, and the most successful was the Indian niche film, 3 Idiots.
Interestingly, there were just under 50 releases all of last year that were on between 100 and 1000 screen releases, from the beginning or by the end. The middle class is dead. It’s dead, in part, by the will of the industry. But it is also dead because it is hard. It’s hard on marketers and it’s hard on consumers. The ticket buyers intuitively understand whether the distributor thinks a movie is fish or foul. And in that middle, they tend to assume that anything under 1000… or really, 1500 screens, is an arthouse movie.
Again, this speaks to the lie that The Hurt Locker was a box office victim of Iraq. it was a victim of a timid release that signaled that the film could be disregarded by audiences looking for a more mainstream movie experience. As a result, THL is likely to become the first post-theatrical cult movie that also won Best Picture. When people finally see it, it will not be what was expected.
And the sad fact is that it looks like most people will still discover the film on cable/satellite, as even with the Oscar bump, the DVD sales are running behind such pulp as Law Abiding Citizen and multiples behind such quality popular fare as The Blind Side.
But I digress…
Even a movie like Greenberg… good numbers for an arthouse release with Ben Stiller. Only The Royal Tenenbaums and Flirting With Disaster did better in small releases. And it will be Noah Baumbach’s #2 grosser, behind the Oscar-running The Squid & The Whale’s $11.1 million worldwide. What were people expecting?
Perhaps it is the culture that has grown out of box office obsession. Perhaps it is bad journalists buying into the spin of studios that want to shift the focus from their bloated budgets of recent years to the box office “failures” that must be the fault of the stars or the genre. The bottom line remains that The Blind Side was a $250 million drama, Avatar was a $2.7b action movie, and Precious was Lionsgate’s #5 movie last year, less than $9 million from the #2 film.
We have embraced the hype as the truth. Bad news.
Everybody else seems to be pegging Date Night at #1 with $27.1…
“THL is likely to become the first post-theatrical cult movie that also won Best Picture.”
I’m slightly baffled as to your reasoning here. Who are these cult members? Showbiz insiders who took a shine to the behind-the-scenes story as much as the on-screen story? There’s little evidence to suggest that anyone else gives a damn, let alone the existence of a loyal group of potential converts just waiting to discover it.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great little movie, but to suggest that it’s suddenly going to reverse its “The What Locker?” trajectory seems a little unsubstantiated.
I actually thought “Date Night” might open in the low-30s.
Loved the first 20 minutes, but–like most everyone else–was a tad deflated when it kicks into “action comedy” mode. Fey and Carell are so insanely likable, though (and carry so much goodwill from their NBC sitcoms) that you stick with it anyway. The uber-cool supporting cast (Marks Ruffalo and Wahlberg, James Franco, et al) and svelte 88-minute running time certainly helps.
Any guesstimate on how “Kick-Ass” is going to open next weekend (I’m thinking $20-million minimum)? Finally saw it Thursday nite and was pleasantly surprised that it (mostly) lives up to expectations. It feels like a cross between a wittily profane (early, good) Kevin Smith or Judd Apatow movie mixed with the snarky ultra-violence of “Kill Bill” circa Tarantino. Loved its audacity, and full-throttle embrace of the “R” rating. My only real caveat was that the direction lacked any real sense of style or personality. And where the hell did they shoot it? The “setting” is (apparently) New York City and environs, but it didn’t look like any NYC I’ve ever seen in real life or the movies. The breakout star will definitely be Chloe Grace Moretz who comes off like the spawn of Uma Thurman’s Bride/”Bill” character. I’ve got a hunch that “K-A” could very well turn out to be one of the seminal, defining films of today’s high school/college-age demo much like “Pulp Fiction,” “Clerks,” “The Usual Suspects” and their ilk were for the previous generation.
On a completely unrelated note, I’m happy to see that “Letters from God” tanked–for any number of reasons.
Movieman brings the copypasta.
The Girl With the Dragon Earring? Is that the one where Scarlet Johansson stars as a tattoo’d up hacker who teams up with painter Johannes Vermeer to solve the disappearance of a industrialist’s family member, and in the process, the duo have an affair that leads to one of the greatest paintings in history?
Sorry, don’t mean to be snarky. It just struck me (and probably only me) as amusing.
No BYOB, so what the hell:
Dave: Were you featured on the Food Network’s new “Private Chefs of Bevrly Hills” series? I could have sworn that one of the millionaire “Glampers” (i.e., “glamorous campers”) looked just like you.
…BevErly Hills….
keys…sticking…again; grrrrrrr.
I’m still waiting on David’s 2000+ word screed on why Tim Gray’s new article in Variety is so wrong…
Grady- Was that the same Variety article that bowed to the omnipotence that is Nikki Finke (without ever–wink-wink,
nudge-nudge–using her actual name)?
So has the “Alice in Wonderland” sequel been officially announced yet? Only two previous films have grossed 800 million worldwide without spawning sequels/being part of a franchise, “Titanic” and “Finding Nemo.” Hard to believe this will be the third. (this is assuming the promised “Avatar” and ID4 sequels happen).
sign me up for an alice sequel.
i think i was the only one who enjoyed it.
i won’t buy the dvd, nor am i going to argue that it was a great film, but i enjoyed it and would head to the theater again for a sequel.
Btw…”She’s Out of My League” is a bad example DP if you were trying to peg it as a film that cost too much to make (tho it might be perceived as a flop regardless….the film had a small budget and will turn a profit by DVD. “Hot Tub Time Machine (which cost almost twice as much as League..before P&A),” “Edge of Darkness” and “Date Night” will end up being examples of movies costing way too much given the genre and losing money.
Dragon now looks like it has an outside shot to top “Kung Fu Panda” domestically.
AFTER.LIFE POWER. RICCI 4 LIFE. NEESON POWER.
How did this manage to come out with ZERO promotion whatsoever? Saw it today and it’s entertaining and *full of Ricci nudity*, even if it’s sort of a mess in a way… Most individual scenes work, but something’s off about the momentum… But who cares when it is a veritable RICCI OGLE-FEST from top to bottom. LYT gave me the heads-up on this months ago, but she spends half the movie in a LITTLE NIGHTY and bare feet running out looking AWESOME, then spends a full quarter of it entirely, extensively nude, then the last thing dressed in some Goth wear. GIVE ME A B–
Neeson is a fucking riot in it, making this three weeks in a row my afternoon has been enlivened by the world’s third greatest actor hamming to the rafters in some disreputable nonsense. And I thought the director did a fairly good job of keeping us guessing which of the two equally viable fantasy vs. reality options were being played out. Movie is a little bit of “Psycho,” a little “Captivity,” a little “What Dreams May Come,” but probably too close if anything to “Boxing Helena” territory that anyone knew what to do with it. But Ricci in minimal clothing on the run from crazy-ass Neeson seems marketable enough that the wholesale lack of TV spots or trailers seems mystifying.
RICCI POWER.
I think it’s Anchor Bay that distributed After.Life. As per usual with them, the obligatory week of theatrical is an AFTER.THOUGHT.
I think this is kind of sweet. I think whoever razzed it on the Movie City News page is a real asshole.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/fashion/weddings/11VOWS.html
Joe, I have to say I effin’ HATE women who keep a list of every characteristic their ideal man has to have, which is to say almost every woman in Los Angeles. For guys, it means you never get a chance to make more than the perfect first impression, or your out…for women, it means you never find the 100% perfect guy because he does not exist.
Thankfully, I am currently taken, after YEARS of nothing…absolutely NO thanks to Internet dating or the “singles scene.” I’m also thankful some dude took that chick off the market so she couldn’t casually crush the hopes of endless less-than-perfect, but perfectly decent guys.
That’s my reaction to that story, anyway.
Having been proven wrong about Dragon Tattoo in an article by the film’s very distributor, DP resorts to name calling. All class!
“Greenberg” did “good numbers”? Focus Features kept name-checking “The Squid and the Whale”, which never got out of the arthouse ghetto. Ordinary folk thought WTF? and stayed away. Distrib also was slow to add theaters when “The Runaways” tanked. One AMC megaplex near me had the “Greenberg” poster up but isn’t playing the film.
At least “The Royal Tenenbaums” had the benefit of coming out through a major and going national for Xmas ’02.
Amend the last sentence to Xmas ’01.
LYT: Women are magic. If you want to be happy, you must become a magician.
Joe: the woman in that article seems to me like the feminine equivalent of LexG. One absolutely specific type in mind that she’ll complain about never ever getting…except she somehow managed to, because the guy dumped his girlfriend and bent over backward, metaphorically speaking. Guys will do that. K-Stew almost certainly won’t.
Yet when Lex or any guy enumerates their list of perfect characteristics a woman needs to have, nobody thinks that’s sweet or magic. It’s usually derided as crude and sexist. Why is the reverse not so?
As I said, I am with someone now, who I make sure to treat well every single day, and never take for granted. But it took forever, thanks to so many uber-perfectionists out there I could never please.
LYT: You were never meant to please them. You were meant to please the one you’re with.
Well, so far so good on that count. I just wish the intervening years hadn’t been so barren.
DRAGON POWER – very glad to see How to Train Your Dragon holding up so well, looks like it could possibly outgross ‘Panda and Wall-E. I have not enjoyed a animated feature this much since The Incredibles.
As for the other Dragon, I saw The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, last week, and really dug it – just as good as the hype, albeit really no new ground broken in the “serial killer” genre. Wonderfully shot and acted, the two leads do just a fantastic job – Noomi Rapace does a great job with some scenes that could play quite silly in lesser hands. I’m sure she will be getting the roles that Franka Potemke was getting ten years ago – whatever happened to her, by the way? The movie does a drag a bit towards the and is a bit overstuffed, but hey, it’s Swedish. 🙂
That said, I can see Fincher doing a great job with the remake, probably making it tighter and more foreboarding – the key will be the casting. If he’s going to put some one like Jessica Alba or Biel in this, then it’s going to suck.
Not a bad year at the movies, so far – I have seen more at this point than in years point and my top five so far would be: Shutter Island, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, How to Train Your Dragon, Waking Sleeping Beauty, and Repo Men. I know – bizarre list, but I do see one correlation.
Three of those movies are basically something we have been lacking in cinema for the most part in recent years – good, R-rated Pulp. Don’t get me wrong, Shutter Island is extremely well-done pulp and respectable pulp, but pulp nonetheless. And I saw the Ghost Writer – it’s basically solid pulp that doesn’t want to admit it’s pulp.
Saw Greenberg a few weeks ago and honestly, the movie put me to sleep – it probably features the best performance that Ben Stiller has ever given and Gerwig is great too. But like Giamattie and Madsen in Sideways, I feel (in the extreme minority on this one, I know) that they are surrounded by a sad-sack comedy drama that is just a mess. I did like Sideways better.
This movie is just lifeless – what is Baumbach’s deal, was he on queludes when he made this movie? Squid and the Whale was also overrated. Greenberg just goes nowhere and the ending is a cheap-how-clever-am-I cheat. I’m all for these types of movies when there is sense of rhythm from them – see A Serious Man.
I think what Dave means is if Hurt Locker had gone any wider, it would have flopped like every other Iraq movie has done (and will continue to do). Then, if it had flopped, it would have gotten zero oscar noms (maybe a nom for sound, but that’s it). Because it never got the chance to flop it became a cult movie (a critic/cineaste cult movie, rather than a genre cult movie). And it accidentally fell into an oscar campaign summit did not want to run (or expect to run, or budgeted to run) and then won the oscar when Avatar made too much money and it became hip to vote against it.
LYT in this thread: AMEN.
GEOFF: GREENBERG POWER. The best movie of 2010 and an American MASTERPIECE that is TOTALLY 100000% RELATABLE to any guy who’s an impossible, inflexible, neuroses-ridded, alcoholic, borderline-suicidal, manic-depressive, awesome stuck-in-1995 asshole prone to cruel jabs and out-of-nowhere eruptions. My only complaint is that Greenberg is TOO LIKABLE, and if Baumbach ever wants to one-up his MASTERPIECE he should phone me up and I can help him collaborate on LEXBERG.
If you think people are running for the exits because they can’t relate to Stiller’s AWESOME, AWESOME, AWWWWWWWWWWWESOME relatable character, they’d be rioting for their money back if you threw 75 pounds and some male-pattern baldness on him, and instead of going down on SMOKING HOT AWESOME GRETA GERWIG OH MY GOD WHO IS SHE I AM BOWING, he stayed home and posted on the internet with his ever-present bottle of scotch, then you’d be halfway close to how HEARTBREAKING and resonant Baumbach’s BEST MOVIE EVER is.
FIVE STARS.
ALSO: There’s a key moment in Greenberg (you’ll know it if you saw it) that’s almost an exact replica of a key moment in Before Sunset (the second one?) and IT IS THE BEST MOMENT OF 2010.
GERWIG POWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWER. YEP YEP. I don’t know what she’s like in real life; Like K-Stew wears her heart on her sleeve and we know how intuitive, sensitive and emotional she is on screen and off… But if Gerwig is even HALF AS AWESOME and lazy-voiced and SEXY AND NONTHREATENING and COOL as she is in Greenberg, I am smitten. SO HOT.
BEST FEMALE CHARACTER SINCE BELLA SWAN.
“…I’m sure she will be getting the roles that Franka Potemke was getting ten years ago – whatever happened to her, by the way?”
Last I checked, she was playing a character who was House M.D.’s two-episode love interest (Sad, really. If House got together full-time with a character played by Franka Potente, he would officially be in the running for most awesome person-real or fictional-ever). She’s definitely not Lola anymore, but perfectly fine just the same.
And the thing I worry about with Fincher directing The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is that it’s going to focus on too much of the visceral moments and putting things that were accented undertones front and center. I’ve only been reading the book since the movie will never play at a theater near me, but the scenes of perverse violence and sexuality are like a friend tapping you on the shoulder and then punching you in the face when you turn around. It comes out of nowhere and from the people you least expect, and that’s part of the point, going with the theme running underneath the story. “Underneath” being the key phrase. I worry Fincher will punch it up a bit too much to where those scenes overshadow the rest of the movie. But considering this is the same Fincher who directed Zodiac without any such playing up too much on the gruesomeness of the murders, it could either way at this point. I think it will be at least better than the U.S. version of The Vanishing, but then again, it can’t get much worse, right?
“it could GO either way at this point.” Stupid missing words.
Franka Potente had a huge, awesome part on the penultimate season of THE SHIELD as an Armenian gangster’s shady daughter. She was all set to return for the final season, which would’ve set her up as some sort of awesome villain…
Then she got stuck filming her ABSOLUTELY NOTHING role in CHE for Soderbergh and they had to write her off the series entirely, which created some fairly obvious continuity and momentum gaps in the early going of the series’ last season.
Of course, being Straight Outta Glendale up in here, I can tell you Franka Potente’s about as convincingly Armenian as Kimberly Elise, but what you gonna do?
Movielocke – I’d be totally cool with that… except that DP explicitly designates it as a “post-theatrical” cult movie, and mentions that most people will find it on cable – suggesting that the cult is yet to come. Since he also states that it was “a victim of a timid release” it appears he believes that it would have performed better if it had gone wider – in defiance of the Iraq Movie Curse ™, again reinforcing the idea that the audience for the movie still hasn’t connected.
Your explanation I buy. DP’s explanation, as phrased in the original post, I don’t.
The problem with Dragon Tattoo is that the best parts of the film have NOTHING TO DO WITH THE NARRATIVE. So yes, Fincher will probably improve on the Swedish version by excising most of the entirely unnecessary last 25 minutes of the movie, but he won’t be able to upgrade the serviceable, but kinda lame and unoriginal thriller storyline.
What he SHOULD do is take the character and give her an awesome Fincher-like narrative that has nothing to do with lame-as-hell-misogynistic Swedish neo-Nazis that belong in airport book-stands only.
Hey, I don’t need Franka Potemke to be Lola, anymore (by the way, saw it on BluRay the first time, last week – movie holds up beautifully well and love the soundtrack), but she’s probably in her mid ’30’s now and why can’t she be getting some of the roles they keep giving to Emily Blunt or Jessia Biel?
And Straat, sorry to hear that ‘Dragon Tattoo won’t be coming to a theater near you – gorgeous movie, but I have a feeling that you’ll be disappointed. Because the sexual violence is FRONT and CENTER in this movie – it’s well done and just stops short of being exploitive – but it is certainly not UNDERNEATH. I’m guessing that if anything, Fincher would likely take it to the more subtle direction you would prefer.
LexG – by your own admission, it seems that you’re apparently the target audience for Greenberg – undermployed sad-sack Angelinos pushing 40 pining after girls significantly younger than them….the problem is that I am not. I guess that is the reason I couldn’t appreciate The Passion because I am Jewish, after all. Funny though, that never helped me enjoy Woody Allen or Adam Sandler movies…..
“I couldn’t appreciate The Passion because I am Jewish, after all. Funny though, that never helped me enjoy Woody Allen or Adam Sandler movies.”
Why would it? The latter two are TOTALLY targeted towards you. Mel’s Jesus movie isn’t.
But if you can look at it as something that is totally true in the world of the movie, regardless of its nature to reality, you might dig it more.
“What he SHOULD do is take the character and give her an awesome Fincher-like narrative that has nothing to do with lame-as-hell-misogynistic Swedish neo-Nazis that belong in airport book-stands only.”
A-loco, you are definitely on to something, as the story is probably the weakest element of the movie. Still enjoyed the hell out of it. However, the two sequels have already been filmed, right? Do they take it in different directions? I just want more stories with this character:
SPOILER ALERT – that scene where Lisbeth is walking with the new laptop triumphantly is just a great character moment (never heard audience members applaud after a character bought a new computer, before) that I did not see coming.
LYT, I said that tongue planted firmly in cheek, relax.
I can always appreciate the world of each movie and dig it on its own terms, no worries – I have never been to India, but I sure enjoyed Slumdog Millionaire.
GERWIG POWER.
Coolest chick in a movie in forever.
But LexG, is she “demure” enough for you? That first awkward sex scene with Still was anything but demure.
I thought it was hot, awesome, funny and just great how Stiller was SO DOWN to perform on her, aka the GREATEST ACT IN THE WORLD.
In many ways she’s not entirely my type, but I don’t care… from FRAME ONE I was like, WHOA, WHO’S THAAAAAAAT? How come I don’t meet any chicks like her??? SO lazy and cool and down and LOW SELF-ESTEEM AND WIMPY but really sexy?
Not saying she’s K-STEW level, but I COULD NOT get enough of her or her character. Even when she was GETTING DRUNK and being silly, and I usually don’t like “funny” women because it gets too haggy, but IT WAS CHARMING. SO CHARMING.
MORE OF HER, PLEASE. Maybe I should retool my MUMBLECORE SCRIPT for Gerwig instead of Malone/K-Stew/Dakota/Evan R.
Actually I had an epiphany watching GREENBERG:
The GRETA GERWIG type of character (probably not the actress) a far more age-appropriate, relatable, healthy and realistic object of pursuit than a 19-year-old starlet who makes movies and I probably wouldn’t have WORD ONE in common with. That GERWIG character would be all awesome and we could HANG OUT and SMOKE WEED and GET DRUNK and LISTEN TO CDs and GO TO MOVIES and she could WEAR COOL OUTFITS and BE FUN and we could LISTEN TO GOO GOO DOLLS ON MY NANO together, and I wouldn’t look like somebody’s sleazy uncle.
GERWIG POWER.
Gerwig’s too cool to listen to Goo Goo Dolls.
Fine, I’ll break out the Bizkit.
Lex,
Gerwig has been the queen of the “mumblecore” movies that SXSW is generally credited with launching. Check out LOL, Hannah Takes the Stairs, and Nights and Weekends. I doubt they’re your kind of thing, but they do usually feature nudity.
I am a big fan of Greenberg as well. I have nothing in common with him but I am more than amused by the guy. I definitely know a lot of people like him though. Stiller is great in this and yes Gerwig is fine in it too. I am just glad to see someone so unlikable on screen as a main character. And he stay in this character throughout pretty much the whole movie.
I wouldn’t be shocked that The girl with the Dragon Tattoo movie wii be remade here, not sure if it’s Fincher who would do it though. I have heard that Kristen Stewart’s name attach to it.
I am a big fan of Greenberg as well. I have nothing in common with him but I am more than amused by the guy. I definitely know a lot of people like him though. Stiller is great in this and yes Gerwig is fine in it too. I am just glad to see someone so unlikable on screen as a main character. And he stay in this character throughout pretty much the whole movie.
I wouldn’t be shocked that The girl with the Dragon Tattoo movie wii be remade here, not sure if it’s Fincher who would do it though. I have heard that Kristen Stewart’s name attach to it.
stewart? you could knock her over with a feather. if they must yankify lisbeth (and they mustn’t) they should get ‘pink’ for the role, or someone messed up with some tude, not a vanilla cookie sassed up with loads of eyeliner
Leahnz, a light bulb just went up over my head about Lisbeth – Lady Gaga! She could do it, I have a feeling – Fincher’s not the type of to do stunt-casting, so he would probably screen-test the hell out of her, but she’s got the look and presence. HUGE fan of hers right now and I would see her or listen to her in anything. She’s already a better singer than Madonna and I’m sure she would be a better actor – probably one of the few out there in any entertainment format who would willing to go to the sexual lengths that the story provides……
Believe it or not, LexG, but Gerwig is only six years older than Stewart – but it does seem a world of difference between them, doesn’t it?
Gerwig looks young, don’t get me wrong, but I have a feeling that she’s got the heft and presence to play Stewart’s aunt or something.
K-STEW is the greatest actress in the history of time. There is nothing she can’t do. But I thought it was Carey Mulligan who they’re circling for the Dragon Tattoo movie. EITHER WAY, BONER. I saw that RAPACE chick and in addition to having a STUPID NAME, she isn’t even HOT.
AMERICA NUMBER ONE.
Gee, when Fincher delivers a MASTERPIECE out of this material as YOU KNOW HE’S GOING TO, can’t wait to hear all the contrarian dorks ranting about how “the original was better!”
“The problem with Dragon Tattoo is that the best parts of the film have NOTHING TO DO WITH THE NARRATIVE.”
a_loco… want to explain to us rubes what the great parts of the film were that had absolutely nothing to do with the story?
Not to be to spoilerific, but how ’bout the character building scenes between Salander and her guardian that have nothing to do with the male lead or Swedish Nazis?
You know, the only scenes people are actually talking about when they say how much they like the movie.
But if you want to be picky, I did confuse “narrative” with “story”.
Klady’s estimates proved correct. The actuals have the “Clash” remake at $26.63M+ and “Date Night” at $25.20M+.
geoff: interesting. if gaga has some acting chops over and above her obvious aptitude for bold performance art, a gaga lisbeth could be the shit