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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady – Incept2

The only comparable non-animated summer hold to Inception‘s second weekend – even if the studio percentage ends up being 2 or 4 or4 percent off – is The Hangover. (Hangover had a better hold, but off a smaller opening… which balances out.) Clearly, a lot of people were convinced that if they wanted to go see a summer blockbuster this weekend, seeing the new Angelina was not as important to them as seeing Nolan’s much talked about film.
I still think there has been a pretty strong overstatement in the press about how this film is doing. And that is, no doubt, self-fulfilling. It doesn’t hurt that, like Avatar, Titanic, and others, there is not much else in the marketplace that can be recommended by word of mouth. There is, no doubt, a you-have-to-see-it-and-decide-for-yourself element.
Regardless, a very strong hold, a very good movie, and a happy story for people who want something out of the summer that isn’t completely brain dead entertainment.
Meanwhile, Jolie’s Salt opening was well off of her Wanted opening… and that was the target for Sony to hit, no? Still, a solid opening.
Perspective counts, of course. Salt is a much cheaper movie than Robin Hood and Sony is not in flux. Yet, when Robin Hood did the same number… and what is likely to be a significantly bigger number worldwide… the word “bomb” was being thrown around. In the end, the bottom lines on these two movies will look pretty similar, unless Salt ends up being unusually leggy.
Just sayin’…
Sony is definitely seeing dividends by having the only real non-animated comedy in the marketplace since it opened, Grown Ups. Dinner For Schmucks has a real opportunity on that score and it will be interesting to see how that film affects Sandler’s. It seems like every year that the summer isn’t overloaded with comedies, the studios forget to do very many at all… and then you get a pile-up like Schmucks and The Other Guys opening back-to-back. With Get Him To The Greek, that makes only 4 straight comedies all summer long… and all four are from franchisers Sandler, Farrell, or Apatow. (Carrell has his feet in both Farrell and Apatow worlds… though perhaps Schmucks lands under Roach’s jurisdiction.)
Focus has an interesting road ahead with The Kids Are All Right. The biggest grosser not to hit 1000 screens in the US this year is Summit’s The Ghost Writer, which had its only $2m weekend with 819 screens. Kids outdid their high this weekend on just 201 screens. The trick to get to and surpass Ghost’s domestic total of $15.5m is getting another big jump out of Kids when it does leap to 800 screens next weekend. A $5 million weekend next weekend and you’re looking at (500) Days of Summer numbers, or better. If the film plateaus on expansion, say $3.5 million, and you start thinking maybe the low 20s. If it stays at $2.6m or drops, the audience has been well mined and high teens starts to look good. This is a film, regardless of your politics or personal feelings about the film, which should be rooted for every bit as much as Inception, in terms of it being a personal piece that is being given a real shot by Focus based on great performances and a respect for adult audiences.

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32 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady – Incept2”

  1. gradystiles says:

    So it looks like either Klady’s Friday numbers were low, or the top movies had crazy-high multipliers.
    David, is Salt still “soft” to you at this number? And I’m still trying to figure out why you speculated that they got “nervous” after looking at tracking, thus causing them to change their campaign. They didn’t, of course (the progression of the campaign was planned quite some time ago), but I’m still curious why you came up with this speculation?

  2. EthanG says:

    I’m not sure I understand your thinking on “Eclipse” losing ground to Twi2. It lost 800,000 this weekend but is already 12 million ahead through the same point, and will probably gain about 2 million over Twi2 over the next 4 weekdays…..I think 300 million for Eclipse is as likely as 400 million for Toy Story 3 at this point don’t you? The last film took in 29 million after the first month. This one needs about 21..

  3. bulldog68 says:

    Yon kind of expected Toy Story to have some good holds week to week, but this is the 2nd week in a row that Grown Ups has posted identical or slightly lower depreciations to have the lowest weekly drops. 24% this week, wow. If this continues it has an outside shot at surpassing his best $163M for Big Daddy. I did not see that coming.
    Read this week that Airbender sequel got greenlit. Now don’t know how the international roll out on this film is taking place but it currently sits with $18m international to go with the $123m domestic. Seems premature in my book, especially considering that the production cost was high, and even a domestic flop like Prince of Persia still got $237m international coin, and not hearing anything about that sequel.
    Is domestic gross all that counts? A movie like Golden Compass did $70m stateside and $300M international. Unless I missed something, there has been no sequel announcement for DC. If those numbers were reversed, I have no doubt we would have seen 2010 release. Any thoughts?

  4. Foamy Squirrel says:

    That’s a pretty impressive set of holds – even Apprentice’ and Airbender’s holds aren’t that bad despite the drubbing they’ve been getting from word-of-mouth.
    Something happening over in Yankeeland to kick everyone out of their houses or something?

  5. bulldog68 says:

    Not DC, but GC for Golden Compass. Homer Simpson says “doh.”

  6. movieman says:

    I thought the “Airbender” sequel was a new cartoon series starting on Nickelodeon in 2011.
    Of course, I could be wrong. But since I’d rather eat glass than sit through a big-screen follow-up to Shyamalan’s trainwreck, I sure hope not.

  7. Tofu says:
    Oh. Hell. Yes.
    That’s the perfect follow-up. Same world, next generation.

  8. DarienStyles says:

    36.4 million dollars, for a film where Angelina Jolie is the main draw, is a promising start. With a smaller budget than the occasional big-budget blockbuster, “Salt” may prove to be another success for its leading lady.

  9. NickF says:

    Angelina is the female action star in Hollywood. I’ll have to get around to seeing Salt.

  10. IOv2 says:

    Salt needs to be her next franchise. It’s that good of an old school Gene Hackman thrillers and I have missed old school Gene Hackman thrillers.
    Bulldog, is indeed a sequel to the animated series. You also have a good point about the ignoring of international numbers when greenlighting sequels but that’s how it works most of the time. Domestic generates perception of success or not. If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere, but if you make it big in Denmark. Not exactly the same as being successful in the US.
    Oh yeah, a 32 percent drop without the aid of 3D. Very nice. Yeah yeah yeah with the Imax but that’s still a pretty damn good hold for a film David Poland believes is too smart for it’s own good.

  11. bulldog68 says:

    Thanks for the correction on the Airbender sequel guys. Even though in this article M.night is talking about his plans for the sequel even though one has not been greenlit as yet.

  12. IOv2 says:

    Bulldog, if I remember correctly, they signed M.Night to helm like three or four movies. They would maybe, I don’t know, want to relieve him of his duties on those films, let him be a PRODUCER, and let someone else direct and write those flicks.

  13. Cadavra says:

    Meanwhile, if you want great fantasy at a far higher level than Shyamalan, THE LOST SKELETON RETURNS AGAIN and DARK AND STORMY NIGHT open today at the New Beverly. Go or I’ll be forced to keep repeating these shameless plugs!

  14. J says:

    Under current conditions, they could sell tickets to “Air Conditioning: The Movie” if they so chose.

  15. jammer69 says:

    YEAH AJ. She cut Julie Christie Dr. Zhivago with Harrison Jack Ryan with Tom Cruise Mission, mixed in Bourne and . . . PRACTICALLY asexual and still she packed and won the Santa Monica theatre I was in. I had easily 6 14-yr old males a row back (6th from front) and older than 14 in front and they all with due reservation loved it. I either caught their eyes after and got the smiles that showed thumbs up or just blatantly turned behind me and asked. I wish I could have compared it to my perception of Tomb Raider responses but don’t have it. Interesting is it seems they purposefully put her with males she did not have chemistry with. I was frustrated at first when I saw her walk towards her future husband … it was NOT believable. A let down after what just happened. NOT until later on when we see how emotionally committed he was to her, her Protector. Still they were not a match. That is no dismissal of Daniel Olbrychski, Liev Schreiber or Chiwetel Ejiofor who were great. On purpose it seems the mismatch was contributed to, via makeup, clothes, etc. as well as movement and dialog. My naive question is does cutting down on spark fit some formula for lengthening out a spy action franchise? I guess the foundation of having “everything” taken from her sort of fits with the Jack Ryan, Steven Seagal movies. Tom Cruise in Mission, Jason Bourne, even Jean-Claude Van Damme . . not as sexual as the James Bond films. Just wondering how they will take the future ones. I hope she breaks a whole new mold and does it asexual if she wants but also would be great if someone who matched would be there. Especially if Brad would be an antagonist in one. This is being hashed all over .. my verbose addition won’t affect the numbers. Which I hope are high and enduring.

  16. EthanG says:

    Question…Fox is headed to a pretty shitty summer…but does it matter? I think not. It’s going to lose money on Marmaduke (such a bomb overseas it pulled most of its openings), A-Team and a bit on “Ramona”….but Knight and Day is still up in the air…and there will be a small to large profit on Predators depending on home market reception. But after “Avatar” and a fantastic start to the year Fox can afford it. On the other hand, the fall slate looks TOUGH. narnia 3 is far from a sure bet…and the “Gulliver’s Travels” trailer looks so abominable Im tempted to think average movie-goers will be turned off.
    We’ll see..

  17. IOv2 says:

    Ethan, Avatar helps but it’s not like they were knocking it out of the box before last December. It’s not like they are in a hole or anything but FOX have not exactly been all that strong the last couple of years, and it has to catch up to them at some point.

  18. gradystiles says:

    “Meanwhile, Jolie’s Salt opening was well off of her Wanted opening… and that was the target for Sony to hit, no?”
    No, actually, it wasn’t. Wanted made $50+ million in its opening weekend. So you think any Jolie action movie that DOESN’T open to that is considered “soft” or disappointing to the releasing studio?

  19. David Poland says:

    So the goal, Grady, was to spend more and make less?
    What standard would you like the Salt opening held up against?
    I’m mostly responding to you here, but you realize that he openings right after Salt’s estimate this summer are Robin Hood, S&TC2, Prince of Persia, A-Team, and Predators. Just above it, The Last Airbender.
    So tell me… who is arguing this is a great opening?
    It’s no bomb.
    But if anyone is celebrating, it’s only because it wasn’t worse.
    Why do you think otherwise?

  20. gradystiles says:

    No one, including me, is arguing it’s a great opening. All I’m saying is that this is right in line (actually a little above) with Sony’s expectations, given the movie they had and the current marketplace.

  21. ERIC MAYHER says:

    Dave it seems you and a lot of the other box office analyzers seem to think that salt is going to die after this weekend. Why? The word of mouth is decent. It has a B+ cinema score same as Inception if I am not mistaken. On top of that it skewed towards female and older which is great for legs unlike young and male which is not most of the time. I am sure sony would have liked a bigger opening weekend but what studio doesn’t with any of their movies. I am just looking at this objectvly as I have not seen the movie yet probaly next weekend but I can’t see it dropping below 20-25 next weekend

  22. jesse says:

    A drop below the 20-25 million range next weekend wouldn’t be crazy to me, Eric. (Below 17-18, I’d be somewhat surprised.) But, yeah, I’m guessing it’ll stay above 20 and still be in good shape, continue to play as the big action/semi-adult alternative for the next bunch of weeks, and finish up in the $125 million area. Not a smash, but pretty decent for a movie sold so heavily on a single star. Wanted topped out at $134 million, great for a movie that no one seemed to think was a lock for $100 million, but not stellar for a movie that opened to $50 million (it opened similarly to Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and then made an opening weekend’s worth less domestic). If Salt opens a little smaller but hangs on a bit longer and winds up grossing in the same range, I’d say that’s pretty decent for a movie that looked a little more boilerplate and a little less crazy comicbooky (and I say that as someone who liked Salt much, much more than Wanted). Sony may have been hoping for something bigger from a somewhat more expensive movie, but realistically, $125 million for Salt should be right in line with expectations.
    I kinda did think it would do $40 million or more this weekend, though, so maybe Inception is just gnawing away at the adult/action audience a little.

  23. LexG says:

    Probably doesn’t seem like a Lex-type movie at all, and it’s technically not, but just to mention something different instead of bickering about Salt and Inception: *very good* movie, Moore and Bening live up to the hype, Ruffalo was awesome, and MIA POWER.
    Liked it a LOT better than Laurel Canyon, too. Cholodenko does a good job, and liked the Carter Burwell score, which didn’t sound anything like a typical Burwell score (Burwell’s great, but in a way he’s the New John Barry in that his “sound” is so awesome and powerful it makes any movie instantly better, but it’s essentially the same sound every time.)

  24. IOv2 says:

    Oh don’t come in here discussing the Kids Are All Right. Where have you been buddy? Huh pal? Out there having a steak with Wells, friend? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?

  25. Joe Straat says:

    Eh, Salt was a mechanical wind-up toy of a movie for me. Yes, it’s stacked with talent in front of and behind the camera (Though did they completely edit around Andre Braugher or did I miss something? I saw him once in the background, and that seems like a very small role for at least a somewhat well respected actor to take), but it was all at a service to characters who were nothing more than plot twists waiting to happen. Really, all the drama was in waiting on who would make a stunning turnaround to save the day or who would suddenly break out an uzi, kill everyone, and suddenly drop their American accent while I felt like they were trying to squelch the desire to break into maniacal laughter. Of course, Phillip Noyce and gang are too smart for that, but the sentiment’s still there.
    IO, I got the same feeling you did that this would’ve been a Gene Hackman movie from the late 70s, early 80s, but those would’ve put the cards on the table earlier on setting up this seemingly unstoppable doomsday situation and let out some slow burn tension as the characters try to stop/enact it instead of waiting until the last minute to reveal certain details. Surprise can be a nice tool to have, but it shouldn’t be the only one, because then everyone will be looking for it and it won’t be a surprise. And as for a franchise, where do you go from here? Sure, they set up the sequel, but would it be interesting in any way? There’s no vital piece of the past that needs to be unlocked,pretty much every personal relationship of Salt’s is settled by the end of the movie, and I doubt Kurt “Ultraviolet” Wimmer is imaginative to come up with an amazing villain to carry a second film. It’d be like the leap from Tomb Raider to Tomb Raider: Cradle of Life where it went from “Eh, a bad movie, but it had some moments” to “KIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLL MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!”

  26. IOv2 says:

    Joe, it reminds me of Narrow Margin. You know, evil freaking Russians conniving movie and I dig those for some reason. Russians make fun villains. Nevertheless, yeah, I have no idea who a villain would be for the second film but seeing as I have a crazy imagination, I would have her go to Russia as the first part of the film, find some info, then head back to states. Once there, with the acquired info, she has to avoid the feds, and take out some more Russians. Again, this sequel would probably only entertain me and my girlfriend, the only other person I know who likes Narrow Margin and sort of likes Salt, but I am convinced with the right team. I could bring this sucker home under budget and on time. SONY… MAKE.BELIEVE AND GIVE ME SOME MONEY!
    One extra point: this film has the new Sony MAKE.BELIEVE logo at the end of it, which got me thinking. What does Salt mean to Sony? If it’s just another part of the pie now, officially, then do they really care if this film does not make a killing? Seriously, that’s a logo for products and once you put it on a film, even if that film is expensive, you essentially (at least to me) turned the making of movies into another widget to sell people and that sort of bugs me.
    Am I alone in this?

  27. IOv2 says:

    Yes, I get your counter arguments but making a film part of the same campaign as a TV, just weirds me out. Sell your TVs but do not equate filmmaking to a freaking Bravia 3D TV.

  28. Anghus Houvouras says:

    IO, i like where your head’s at. However this argument started thirty years ago.
    Once the rental market took hold, movies became about something more than the theatrical experience.
    The rental matket turned into the dvd market.
    film studios started to buy video game production companies.
    hell, you could say lucas’ star wars merchadising did a lot to open peoples eyes to the ever expanding revenue streams.
    this should surprise no one. its always been heading this way. its like that line from the opening of jerry maguire. hes pitching some athlete and makes a statement about not being happy until he sees the potential client in a commercial for a sneaker with his name on it, a kid playing a video game with him on the cover,.etc
    This, my friend, is the next inevitable step.

  29. Joe Leydon says:

    LexG: If you get a chance, catch That Evening Sun. Mia Wasikowska has a relatively small supporting role, but she absolutely nails it, and makes every second count. She impressed Hal Holbrook, the star of the movie. And she actually has a scene where her feet are visible (she’s wearing flip-flops). Here:

  30. Stella's Boy says:

    I think Salt’s opening is pretty good. According to boxofficemojo, since 1980 there have been 84 movies that fall in the Spy category. The only movie with a female lead (in this case females) and a better opening weekend is Charlie’s Angels. In the Action Heroine genre, which counts 49 titles since 1980, only the first Tomb Raider and the Charlie’s Angels flicks had a better opening weekend. Plus it nearly doubled Knight and Day’s opening . All things considered a solid opening IMO.

  31. Sams says:

    So David, you expect that Salt’s foreign gross will be much less than Robin Hood’s? Robin Hood has made $200M so far, 66% of its total. Jolie’s movies typically also make 60% of Total abroad. So you expect the % for Salt will be different?

  32. Sams says:

    Robin Hood has made $200M abroad so far which is 66% of Total. Jolie’s films typically make 60% of their total abroad. Yet you expect Robin Hood will have “a significantly bigger number worldwide”. So you expect Salt’s WW total % to be less than 60%? Why so?

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4