Friday Estimates by Klady
The Last Exorcism should end up in the low 20s, which still will make it only the 17th $20m opener in Lionsgate history. It’s starting out just a little behind the company’s The Haunting in Connecticut, which creepy-advertised its way to a $23m start in March of last year. Ironically, they are using Eli Roth’s name to open this film to more than any Eli Roth movie has ever opened.
Of the current 16 LGF $20m domestic openers, 7 are Tyler Perry (which is why For Colored Girls… is a lock to end up in this year’s Oscar race come December), 4 Saws, then Bloody 3D, Forbidden Kingdom, Haunting in CT, F9/11, and The Expandables. Perhaps this parade of success with cheap is why Mr. Icahn doesn’t want the company expanding into more expensive product. The most expensive Liosngate film to gross oevr $50m domestic was 3:10 to Yuma… and that was, basically, an output deal with Relativity. This year’s most expensive pick-ups – From Paris with Love, Kick-Ass and Killers – didn’t crack $50m.
So, excellent job with Exorcism… congratulations to Sarah Greenberg for having baby Sarah Jr exorcised from her womb… and settle this war by knowing what LGF does best and most profitably, not just trying to tell Icahn Daddy that he’s wrong and you’re right.
Takers is classic Screen Gems. Pretty cheap, not to pretty, opened to over $20m. That’s teh way they roll over there. It is possible that this one will end up just short of $20m… but not in the estimates tomorrow morning.
Screen Gems’ highest grossing film is the $80m domestic for Dear John, which doesn’t seem to fit the profile. Normally, it would be Got Johnned, The Exorcism Of John, Underjohn or Resident Death March. But Mr Culpepper is clearly stretching out a bit. And next month, the company has a real chance of breaking its record with another unexpected Screen Gems title… though still at a price. Interesting times.
The third “new” picture in the marketplace is Avatar: The Re-Release, which even taking the 3D bump in consideration (all screens are 3D or IMAX 3D this time) will likely be the #3 per screen wide release of the weekend, with nearly $5000 per or $3500 per if you take 30% off for 3D pricing. That’s still more than a quarter million people leaving their homes to see a film recently released on DVD at premium prices in the weakest box office part of the year. Not bad.
I should say here that I am a little sick to death of the endless whining about 3D and the overstated screeds about 3D slowing going down the toilet. These pieces use the false logic of the Fake Box Office Slump of 2005, in which the survey was so dramatically skewed by The Passion of The Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 the year before (not to mention Shrek 2‘s outlying success… oops, mentioned it) that comparisons the next year were terribly misleading. Now it’s that 3D grosses are down… versus Avatar and then Alice In Wonderland, 2 of the 7 billion dollar grossers of all time.
Wow… Step Up 3D didn’t do Avatar numbers. Shocking. But trying to pin it all on 3D is about as stupid as claiming that a mosque being built near WTC will not upset people… or that it is not in the spirit of this nation to allow it regardless because this nation aspires to being bigger than our differences or our fears. (Yeah… we fail… a lot. So goes the nation.)
It is equally true that relatively big numbers for Resident Evil 3D, Saw 3D and Jackass 3D will not make 3D “happening” again. These may be fun, but basically, they are Star Wars Christmas Specials… stunts with familiar, strong-base franchises.
The real show that 3D as oversized phenomenon is over is the decision not make Sucker Punch a 3D film. I suspect it may have had more to do with ruining the film, which is already a giant visual stunt, so doing a cheap 3D layover would probably diminish the quality significantly. But, still…
I would not be shocked to see Pirates 4 downplay the 3D aspect. Sell the movie. Then let people know, by the way, the film can be seen in 3D. And watch the billion dollar mark fall for the second time in the franchise history. But by then, in spite of Harry Potter, there will be some dead 3D bodies piled up on Hollywood Road… movies that spent the $5m and didn’t get a real return on that money.
Speaking of which… Piranha 3D will be right on the cusp of “was it worth it?”
This is the last Friday box office piece on what will shortly be “the old site.” (Of course, everything is being moved over, including your comments) Weird feeling…
The limited release strategy for CENTURION is an inane decision. Might as well just release it straight to dvd if you don’t want to spend the money to market it properly. Jackasses.
Glad to see that Lionsgate is getting their mojo back, partially by returning to their roots a bit. Their 2-year quest for ‘respectability’ has not been kind to them. At the end of the day, Lionsgate theatrical puts out trashy action pictures, high-end horror fare, and the Tyler Perry melodramas. Let their DVD branch put out the prestige stuff via Village Roadshow and New Market (Winter’s Bone, Away From Her, Agora, This September Issue, Stoning of Soraya M., etc).
Centurion is Magnolia. They basically do tiny theatrical releases as gloried advertisements for the VoD and eventual DVD/Blu Ray releases. Only one to three movies per year even make it on 100 screens, and most are FAR fewer. Of course, that still doesn’t excuse them opening The Host on the same weekend as 300 back in early 2007. Although, for a mediocre film that’s loads of fun anyway, check out The Oxford Murders if it’s still on VoD (just listening to John Hurt pontificate for 105 minutes makes the movie).
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=&view=company&view2=allmovies&studio=magnolia.htm&sort=open&order=DESC&p=.htm
I’m surprised that they’re talking Piranha 3D sequels when it didn’t really do all that well. Maybe it’s Harold and Kumar, which made about $15M at the box office, but had good reviews and sold a bunch of DVDs. Piranha 3D will probably do a little over $15M, has good reviews, but we’ll see if sells enough DVD’s or Blu-ray’s.
I’m surpriced Takers did so well. Paul Walker couldn’t open anything except for the Fast and Furious movies.
I don’t think Paul Walker is any more responsible for Takers (or Snow Dogs) than Hayden Christensen, Matt Dillon, or Idris Elba is. It was a genre picture with a decent cast and some solid trailers/TV spots. Pardon the broken record, but there is a distinct lack of B-movie genre fare like this, and if you can keep the costs in line, you can usually make money on an old-fashioned action picture. It looked more big-scale than Armored and less comic book-flashy than The Losers (which theoretically turned off older audiences), thus you get a solid opening off of Takers.
T.I. and Chris Brown are probably as responsible as anyone in the cast… Still surprised, though, since as Scott M. suggests, TAKERS looks like exactly the SAME MOVIE as Armored and The Losers…
And all three feature various permutations of the SAME CAST; All that’s missing in TAKERS is the ubiquitious Columbus Short, who was in both ARMORED and LOSERS, the latter of which had Zoe Saldana and Idris Elba, both in this, with Matt Dillon, who was in Armored too.
TAKERS is also Rainforest Films, which is sort of Tyler Perry Studios Jr. It is an Atlanta based African-American production company that built its audience through independent direct to video/DVD releases like the TROIS trilogy and MOTIVES and MOTIVES 2, and then hit it big theatrically with STOMP THE YARD ($61M), following it up with THIS CHRISTMAS ($49M) and OBSESSED ($68M). The only difference from Tyler Perry is that they are less prolific, they don’t have a signature character, and they don’t get name above the title. Otherwise, it’s the same idea. They spent the time building an audience and learning how to deliver what they want and to market to them, but since it doesn’t originate in New York or Los Angeles, it comes from “out of nowhere.” Rainforest is to Screen Gems as Tyler Perry is to Lionsgate.
Piranha 3D sequel talk is little more than another publicity stunt.
A bit of an exaggeration, djk. Perry is the biggest thing Lionsgate had ever had. Rainforest has done great for Screen Gems, but they are not a dominating force.
On a semi-unrelated note, your RSS feed hasn’t been working since mid-July. Is this due to the upcoming relaunch of the site?
The RSS feed has been hand fed and the person who does it has been somewhat missing.
Starting Monday, our RSS feeds will be automated and relentless.
I would have seen Pirahna if it WASN’T 3D, and I know I’m not alone.
And a Tyler Perry film as a serious Oscar contender? Not sure I’m buying that, even after some of the crap that’s won the past few years.
TAKERS POWER.
Yeah, it’s a TOTAL, beat-for-beat “homage” to HEAT, but holy shit is Matt Dillon awesome in it. Dillon is ALWAYS awesome, now that I think of it, and CRASH excepted, always seems a little undervalued. Kind of where you take him for granted, like Richard Gere, but then every once in a while they hit one out of the park and you remember, wait a minute, this guy ALWAYS delivers.
DILLON POWER.
Hi Dave. Every sight I just visited has the release date for For Colored Girls as January 14, 2011. I see no record of a 2010 release anywhere. I don’t even see a platform release or a consideration run. Let me know if I just over looked it. Thanks.
It’s not official yet, Daddio. Being late into the race is seen as an asset by most studios.
But 99.9% sure to happen.
“The Expandables”
2nd best typo ever.
Even with the 3D bump I’m not completely sold on Pirates 4 will making a billion.
You’ve got a new storyline, smaller cast, 3rd film was the lowest domestic grosser… Anything can happen, of course, but right now I’m feeling franchise fatigue.
If it does cross a billion, however, it will due to the 3D premium though.
Sorry, but intentional, Foamy.
First time I’ve noticed you use it – I assumed it was a freudian slip. š
“And a Tyler Perry film as a serious Oscar contender? Not sure I’m buying that, even after some of the crap that’s won the past few years.”
You obviously have never seen a production of For Colored Girls. Hell, I’m not sure you’ve even heard of the play. This is where, for all the grief and mockery he gets from some folks on this blog, David has an inside track: He actually sees live theater now and then.
There is so much raw emotion in For Colored Girls. If T Perry actually lays off the throttle, it should be a pretty powerful production. And that’s a big IF. I just saw a rendition up in Sherman Oaks earlier this summer that was excellent. I’ve kinda wondered why it’s never been done before but man it’s really a play. I don’t know how a conversion to film will actually play out.
There was a 1982 TV version of “For Colored Girls,” apparently… directed by Oz Scott, the esteemed auteur of Richard Pryor’s BUSTIN’ LOOSE, which if you’re anything like me, you watched 431 times on HBO between 1982 and 1983, and have had the theme song to stuck in your head for 27 years, 24 hours a day, nonstop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cM_OAQJQBY
Scott is primarily a theatre director who in fact did the original stage version of COLORED GIRLS. If you were Black and someone offered you a Richard Pryor movie as your first feature gig, would YOU turn it down?
Um, thought I made it pretty clear I am the world’s number-one fan of BUSTIN’ LOOSE, as well as a nearly lifelong Pryor fan (Silver Streak having been one of my earliest movie memories, as well as his appearances on Sesame Street), so I don’t know what made you think I was bad-mouthing Oz Scott or his decision to make a movie that’s as nostalgic and formative to me as Star Wars is for most people.
thinking of pryor, does anyone remember a weird movie called ‘dynamite chicken’ from the 70’s? i saw it when i was kid with my mum who was a bit of a hippie then, that’s the first time i can remember pryor, he was like the host for a bunch of skits and songs, anti-war/counter-culture type stuff; i remember seeing it at a party or some non-movie theatre kind of venue, projected on a wall or some such…i shudder to think. anyway i don’t think i understood it at the time – i’ve seen it once subsequently i think, long ago – but i remember pryor and sort of following him after that, because i’d seen him in that weird movie and knew who he was, i guess. it’s funny what we remember from our childhoods, which fragments lodge themselves in our brain for some reason, forever haunting us, while we forget so much else.
(‘silver streak’ is one of my all-time faves, such a rare gem of a ‘romantic comedy buddy adventure mystery thriller’, a very exclusive genre indeed. when is that coming out on blu-ray?)
I have DYNAMITE CHICKEN on VHS. A raw tapestry that movie is. Pryor is hardcore.
Lex, your use of the term “esteemed auteur” for a director whose feature resume consists of that Pryor film, a documentary and a direct-to-video thriller sounded snarky. You may not have intended it that way, but that’s how it came across.
“I have DYNAMITE CHICKEN on VHS. A raw tapestry that movie is. Pryor is hardcore.”
figures you’d have it, christian. i must try to get my mitts on it for a new millennium refresher, see how the movie matches up with my wistful memories.