By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
Best Picture Chart – 9/30/10
BEST
PICTURE |
|||||
Picture
|
Studio
|
Director
|
Stars |
Comment
|
|
The Films Most Likely (by release date) |
|||||
June 18
|
Toy Story 3 |
Disney
|
Unkrich
|
–
|
|
July 16
|
Inception |
WB
|
Nolan
|
DiCaprio
|
|
Oct 1
|
The Social Network |
Sony
|
Fincher
|
Eisenberg
|
|
Nov 5
|
127 Hours |
FxSch
|
Boyle
|
Franco
|
|
Nov
24 |
The King’s Speech |
TWC
|
Marshall
|
Firth
|
|
Dec 1
|
Black Swan |
FxSch
|
Aronofsky
|
Portman
|
|
Dec 25
|
True Grit |
Par
|
Coens
|
Bridges
Brolin Damon |
The only film in this category that hasn’t been seen. |
Duking It Out For 3 or 4 Slots (by release date) | |||||
July 30
|
Get Low |
SPC
|
Schneider
|
Duvall
Spacek Murray |
|
Feb 19
|
Shutter Island |
Par
|
Scorsese
|
DiCaprio
|
|
June 11 | Winter’s Bone |
RdAtt
|
Granik
|
Lawrence
|
|
July 9
|
The Kids Are All Right |
Focus
|
Cholodenko
|
Bening
Moore |
|
Sept 15
|
Never Let Me Go |
FxSch
|
Romanek
|
Knightley
Mulligan Garfield |
|
Sept 17
|
The Town |
WB
|
Affleck
|
Renner |
|
Oct 8
|
Secretariat |
Dis
|
Wallace
|
Lane
|
|
Oct 22
|
Hereafter |
WB
|
Eastwood
|
Damon
|
|
Nov5
|
Due Date |
WB
|
Phillips
|
Downey
Galifianakis |
|
Nov 5
|
For Colored Girls… |
LGF
|
Perry
|
Elise
Goldberg Newton |
|
Nov 12
|
Morning Glory |
Par
|
Michell
|
McAdams
Ford |
|
Nov 19
|
Made In Dagenham |
SPC
|
Cole
|
Hawkins
|
|
Nov 24
|
Love & Other Drugs |
Fox
|
Zwick
|
Gyllenhaal
Hathaway |
|
Dec 10
|
The Fighter |
Par/Rel
|
O. Russell
|
Wahlberg
|
|
Dec 17
|
How Do You Know |
Sony
|
Brooks
|
Witherspoon
Nicholson |
|
Dec 17
|
Rabbit Hole |
LGF
|
Mitchell
|
Kidman
|
|
Dec 29
|
Another Year |
SPC
|
Leigh
|
Broadbent
Staunton |
|
Dec 29
|
Biutiful |
RdAtt
|
Gonzalez-
Inarritu |
Bardem
|
|
The Rest Of The Contenders (by release date) |
|||||
Mar 26
|
How to Train Your Dragon |
DW/Par
|
|||
Aug 13
|
Eat Pray Love |
Fox
|
J Roberts
|
||
Sept 1
|
The American |
Focus
|
Corbijn
|
Clooney
|
|
Sept 24
|
It’s Kind Of A Funny Story |
Focus
|
Boden/
Fleck |
E Roberts
|
|
Sept 24
|
Wall Street 2 |
Fox
|
Stone
|
Douglas
Mulligan |
|
Oct 15
|
Conviction |
FxSch
|
Goldwyn
|
Swank
|
|
Dec 25
|
Somewhere |
Focus
|
Coppola
|
Dorff |
|
Dec 1
|
Miral |
TWC
|
Schnabel
|
–
|
|
Dec 10
|
The Tempest |
Mir
|
Taymor
|
Mirren
|
|
Dec 31
|
Blue Valentine |
TWC
|
Cianfrance
|
Gosling
Williams |
What’s the latest on The Way Back? Will it be in this year’s running?
I’d take Shutter Island down quite a bit. Paramount will be spending it’s ad money on True Grit.
I believe the Way Back will be released by Newmarket in 2011
Yeah, Shutter Island has virtually no shot at the Top 10.
Early Best Pic predictions (i’ll keep it to 9 slots for now), especially for a middle school teacher from north Texas, but here goes:
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
King’s Speech
127 Hours
Social Network, The
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone (this has a slight edge over Kids Are All Right, but both won’t likely make the cut)
Actually, Paramount is planning an all out campaign for Shutter Island, so it would be silly to just disregard it entirely.
I’m not disregarding it, I’m just being realistic. Shutter Island has virtually no shot at the Top 10, regardless of Paramount’s intentions and campaign budget.
“Shutter” has a shot w. ten slots, absolutely. It’s not “in the bag”; “Inception” will siphon off some of the votes, but once you’re in the Oscar winner’s club, you’re much more likely to get nominated for anything you do that’s at all worthy: Eastwood, Tomei, Fellini…