Christmas Eve Estimates by Grinch Klady
Again, the theme I see here is more movies doing better without the massive hit(s) eating the marketplace.
This is what The Industry must confront, on some level. Lower overall numbers but more films able to get to profitability based on a lower price tag… or chasing the big gold ring of $500m+ grosses. It’s a double-edged sword, as we saw into the studio foray into the indie business. The lower the potential profit, even with success, the less motivated the big corporations are to keep funding the effort. (As in, “Wouldn’t this $200 million a year generate more money if it were used in the microwave division?”) But it’s the chase of The Big Movie that has made the film business the vast wasteland that some allege it to be.
It’s all too easy to get bogged down on the individual performances of these movies… even more so by obsessing on domestic box office first and last. A massive hit or a number of 8-figure losing bombs can change the dynamic for a studio, but mostly, it’s a portfolio business. There’s time enough for counting when the dealing’s (or the quarter’s) done.
True Grit is much more important to Paramount’s bottom line, since they financed it (and yeah, brought in a partner), than is The Fighter, on which they are in an output deal. But the distribution deals on Paramount’s spread sheet have been, in recent years, a more important business for the studio than their produced product. Grit will have a direct effect on the bottom line, but Fighter can prove to producers that you can bring a challenging movie to Paramount and do better with it there than at other studios.
Don’t pay attention to the man behind the curtain… unless you are interested in what the real bottom line is.
Ho ho ho.
(And though it’s a lump of coal in the stocking… Little Fockers has to feel like a holiday dagger as Comcast gets closer to taking over at NBC/U. The marketing was horrible. Showing clips from the old movies as your main push is like telling people they should stay home and watch their old DVDs of the first 2 films. But a marketing department has to work with what they have and you have to wonder just how bad a mess the movie is – I haven’t seen it – that the only bits worth bringing to the pitch are the Very Old “I have my eyes on you” and fake period pictures of Old Fockers. “The Godfocker?” Really? So what that would signal to a new boss might be, “Production can’t even milk a smash hit for a few new gags that can make a great trailer and TV spots.” There is nothing easy about a third film in a series… everyone is in charge and no one wants to be caught pandering even though every single person is doing it for the check. But if you’re a company under duress and you decide to greenlight another overpriced film, you at least have to be willing to fail… or you will most surely fail. Ya?)
Your right on target about the Fockers marketing. I disliked the first one, only saw the caravan scenes from the second one on HBO and obviously wouldn’t give the time of day to this one. The production of this sounded like a disaster. Hoffman was classed into doing this at the last minute and once again, the gags that they have to offer appear to be few and far between or completely played out.
As much as I love it, Black Swan’s expansion seems lukewarm at best; its even fallen behind The Fighter now despite adding 500 screens.
I’m back in Iowa for holiday and today I stopped by the local cineplex to pick up some gift certs for the in-laws. A group of 4 college aged kids were in line trying to decide on what to go to and none of them had even heard of Black Swan…they decided on Tron instead. Sigh.
(Single tear)
The Fighter is still playing in over 1000 more theatres than Black Swan. By Monday Black Swan should be over the $30 million mark. Cheer up.
Guess Mark Wahlberg simply is not a box office heavyweight. See what I did there?
Is any serious film lover not utterly depressed at what has happened to the once remarkable career of one Mr. Robert De Niro?
I saw The King’s Speech at a 12:35 show in Evanston, IL. Second show of the day. Very very close to sold out. Mostly older crowd. Reason I mention is that there was applause at the end.
I liked it and understand the accolades. A shout out to the score by Alexander Desplat. Classical music for a classical film.
DeNiro’s debasement of his legacy is worse than anything Olivier did in his final years (“Clash of the Titans,” “The Betsy,” et al).
Why doesn’t Scorsese just take DeNiro aside and slap some sense into him? Or try to anyway. At this point I think he’s probably too far gone to see-let alone shoot (wink-wink)-straight.
At least Olivier had an excuse (all those Joan Plowright babies he needed to support from beyond the grave) for his whoring. What’s DeNiro’s justification for signing on to garbage like “Fockers” (2 & especially 3), “Righteous Kill,” “Showtime,” “City by the Sea,” “The Godsend,” “Rocky and Bullwinkle,” “15 Minutes,” “Analyze That,” “Hide and Seek,” etc., etc. Hell, relatively dignified pay-for-hire gigs like “Men of Honor,” “The Score” and even “Everybody’s Fine” are beginning to look like the halcyon days of “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull” and “The Deerhunter” by comparison.
As a child of ’70s cinema, it breaks my heart.
P.S= Bonus points to anyone who caught my lame James Goldstone reference.
Direwolf, I probably saw you. My wife and I saw the 12:50 showing of True Grit at the Cinemark in Evanston. It was also pretty much a sell out, and the audience seemed to eat it up although there was no applause at the end. I thought that Damon stole the movie and that Steinfeld has a big future ahead of her.
Oscar 2011: Celebrating the taste of OLD PEOPLE with YOUNG PEOPLE HOSTING! OH THE IRONY!
They’re not particularly good numbers, but don’t quite write all of these movies off just yet. Christmas Eve is a historically bad day for box office, and these movies (particularly the family friendly ones) will be making more each weekeday next week than they did on Friday.
Ok, can we just give another shout-out to the Paramount marketing department? I can confidentally say that they are the BEST among the major studios, no doubt. Think of what they have pulled off the past few years with films big and small: re-launched Star Trek to the best attendance numbers ever for the whole series, launched a 2nd tier comic book (Iron Man) into a franchise rivalling any of the top tier comic properties, turning a small novelty “found footage” horror film like Paranormal Activity into a blockbuster, and now this……making a Coen Brothers film into an EVENT.
Yeah, I know…..Bridges is pretty hot, right now, but still. This movie had no surefire stars and I’m pretty confident that any other studio would have platformed the hell out of it for weeks, while Paramount launches it mega-wide on Christmas weekend???? And this thing is just behind Fockers????? It was a great marketing campaign – the trailers and posters really popped with confidence.
I saw it this afternoon the movie does play…..the audience was really into it. I really liked it, but I would not put in their top tier, probably second tier Coen alongside Burn After Reading and Barton Fink.
And yeah, the Fockers marketing came off desperate – the trailers were never really funny. I mean, wow, Viagra jokes??? I’m sure it didn’t help that Love and Other Drugs came out just a few weeks ago.
And Fox Searchlight did pretty much the opposite of what they pulled back in ’08: they went way too slowly with the rollout of their Aronofsky film (The Wrestler), while clicking perfectly with their Boyle film (Slumdog Millionaire). This time, they definitely caught lightning in a bottle with the accelerated release of Black Swan, while sitting on 127 Hours for way too long. Guess it’s only fair – maybe Aronofsky and Boyle need to a put a little more distance between their films, next time around…..
“P.S= Bonus points to anyone who caught my lame James Goldstone reference.”
THE GANG THAT COULDN’T SHOOT STRAIGHT. Your reference wasn’t lame, but the movie was.
@Geoff
My spreadsheet (that admittedly is 3 months without an update) shows that for the last 10 years the major studios have the following ranking (in terms of worst-to-best distributors):
6 – Universal
5 – Sony
4 – Paramount
3 – Warner Bros
2 – Disney (Buena Vista)
1 – Fox
If your movie is distributed by Fox, you will (on average) gross $60mil more worldwide than if you were distributed by Universal (although keep in mind that foreign and domestic distributors aren’t always the same). Fox is the only one that is statistically significant (i.e. that I’m 99% sure actually makes a difference) and I suspect that’s mostly because of Avatar… which say what you like, SOME credit has to go to marketing.
I may update it in January, would be interesting to see how Christmas has changed the rankings (if at all – this is 10 years worth of data).
Cadavra- Yes, “Gang” was indeed kinda lame. Yet in comparison with some of DeNiro’s 21st century “comedies” (“Showtime,” the last two “Fockers”), it’s practically Restoration Comedy. And DeNiro did give a charming performance.
As for Goldstone, I rather liked another of his early ’70s movies (“Red Sky at Morning”), even though it wasn’t nearly in the same class as Richard Bradford’s novel.
…speaking of “Red Sky,” does anyone know what ever became of Cathy Burns? She was Oscar-nommed for “Last Summer,” did “Red Sky” (re-teaming with a pre-John Boy Richard Thomas), then pretty much disappeared.
Sort of like what happened with Kim Darby shortly after “True Grit 1.”
Gonzo smokes while Cathy Burns.
Kim Darby will always have Better Off Dead.
…and Robt. Aldrich’s “The Grissom Gang” (Darby’s last major film role before vanishing)….
Barton Fink is not second tier. Not by a long-shot. It’s one of their true masterpieces.
Obviously, Arisp – these are subjective on my part. I would also consider O Brother Where Art Thou to be second tier Coens, but I know a lot of folks would disagree.
And even more along those subjective lines, Foamy – I’m not talking about pure international grosses as a judgment and hell yeah, Avatar skews any kind of stat for Fox. And yes, they pulled off a hell of a job with that movie – for months, every one was saying how the trailers sucked. Well, obviously not.
But marketing-wise, Fox is not even in the same ballpark as Paramount. ANY marketing department (in its current form) could have squeaked to near $200 million domestic with Ice Age and X Men sequels.
But over $250 million for Star Trek or now looking like $100 million domestic for a Coen Brothers western???? That takes real freaking marketing acumen.
Think of this as a comparison: Par got GI Joe to over $150 million two summers ago, cheesy property. Fox with the equally cheesy property A Team (and bigger stars) couldn’t even get above $80 million. And don’t talk about budgets, because I’m pretty sure those two movies were in similar price ranges. Paramount got Jackass 3D over $100 million, but the folks at Fox couldn’t pull that off for Knight & Day or Unstoppable???? I know, different genres, but still…..you leave that much money on the table and it’s a true reflection on marketing, plain and simple.
Darby moved back to Kentucky or Tennessee a couple of years ago. I knew her slightly when she was dating my friend Johnny Crawford. Nice lady but absurdly shy.