Gurus o’ Gold: True Grit Week – Episode Two
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The King's Speech |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 146 |
| 2 | 2 |
The Social Network |
5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 131 |
| 3 | 3 |
Inception |
4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 102 |
| 4 | 5 |
True Grit |
1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 92 | |
| 5 | 4 |
Toy Story 3 |
7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 84 |
| 6 | 6 |
Black Swan |
3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 65 | ||
| 7 | 8 |
The Kids Are All Right |
6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 52 |
| t8 | 9 |
The Fighter |
9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 | ||
| t8 | 7 |
127 Hours |
10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 51 | |||
| 10 | t10 |
Rabbit Hole |
9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | |||||||||
| t10 |
Winter's Bone |
8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 17 | |||||||
|
The Town |
10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 12 | ||||||||||||
|
Shutter Island |
9 | 10 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Another Year |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Dropping Off – The Way Back, Blue Valentine
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
David Fincher The Social Network |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 68 | |
| 2 | 2 |
Tom Hooper The King's Speech |
3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 48 | |
| 3 | 4 |
Christopher Nolan Inception |
2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 27 | ||||
| t4 | 6 |
Joel & Ethan Coen True Grit |
4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 | ||||||
| t4 | 5 |
Darren Aronofsky Black Swan |
2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | |||||||
| 6 | 3 |
Danny Boyle 127 Hours |
4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | |||||||
|
Lisa Cholodenko The Kids Are All Right |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Debra Granik Winter's Bone |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Biutiful |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Dropping Off – Peter Weir, John Cameron Mitchell
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The King's Speech David Seidler |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 63 | |
| 2 |
Inception Christopher Nolan |
3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 49 | |
| 3 |
The Kids Are All Right Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg |
1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 48 | |
| 4 |
Another Year Mike Leigh |
5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 24 | |||||
| 5 |
Black Swan Andres Heinz, Mark Heyman, John J McLaughlin |
2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 23 | |||||||||
|
Blue Valentine Derek Cienfrance |
4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
|
The Fighter Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Animal Kingdom David Michôd |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
How Do You Know James L. Brooks |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Biutiful Alejandro González Iñárritu, Armando Bo, Nicolás Giacobone |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
ED NOTE, Sunday 12:45p Mistaken votes in this category for Winter’s Bone have been reconsidered by the voters.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The Social Network Aaron Sorkin |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 75 | |
| 2 |
True Grit Joel and Ethan Coen |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 47 | ||
| 3 |
Toy Story 3 Michael Arndt |
5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 33 | |||
| 4 |
127 Hours Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy |
4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 28 | ||||||
| 5 |
Winter's Bone Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini |
3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | |||
|
Rabbit Hole David Lindsay-Abaire |
3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | |||||||||||
|
The Town Peter Craig and Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard |
4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Colin Firth The King's Speech |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 74 |
| 2 | 2 |
James Franco 127 Hours |
3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | 3 |
Jesse Eisenberg The Social Network |
2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 39 | |
| 4 | 5 |
Jeff Bridges True Grit |
5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 27 | ||||
| 5 |
Aaron Eckhart Rabbit Hole |
4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 |
Robert Duvall Get Low |
4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | ||||||||||
|
Javier Bardem Biutiful |
5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | ||||||||||
|
Ryan Gosling Blue Valentine |
4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Dropping Off – Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Annette Bening The Kids Are All Right |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 68 |
| 2 | 2 |
Natalie Portman Black Swan |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 66 |
| 3 | 4 |
Nicole Kidman Rabbit Hole |
3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 31 | ||
| 4 | 3 |
Jennifer Lawrence Winter's Bone |
4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 | |||
| 5 | 5 |
Lesley Manville Another Year |
4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | ||||
|
Michelle Williams Blue Valentine |
4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
|
Julianne Moore The Kids Are All Right |
3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Tilda Swinton I Am Love |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Anne Hathaway Love & Other Drugs |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Dropping Off – Sally Hawkins, Carey Mulligan, Diane Lane
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Helena Bonham Carter The King's Speech |
1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 57 | |
| 2 | 4 |
Hailee Stanfield True Grit |
2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 47 | |||
| 3 | 3 |
Melissa Leo The Fighter |
4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 42 | |
| 4 | 2 |
Dianne Weist Rabbit Hole |
3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28 | |||
| 5 |
Amy Adams The Fighter |
3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 23 | ||||||||
|
Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom |
3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||
|
Barbara Hershey Black Swan |
4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||
|
Sissy Spacek Get Low |
4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| 5 |
Miranda Richardson Made in Dagenham |
5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
|
Mila Kunis Black Swan |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
Dropping Off – Julianne Moore, Amanda Peet, Marion Cotillard
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Geoffrey Rush The King's Speech |
2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 68 |
| 2 | 2 |
Christian Bale The Fighter |
3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 64 |
| 3 | 3 |
Mark Ruffalo The Kids Are All Right |
1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 35 | ||
| 4 | 4 |
Andrew Garfeld The Social Network |
4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 25 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Matt Damon True Grit |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 13 | ||||||||
|
Sam Rockwell Conviction |
5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
|
Michael Douglas Wall Street 2 |
5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
|
Jeremy Renner The Town |
4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| 8 |
Vincent Cassel Black Swan |
4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Sean Penn Fair Game |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Miles Teller Rabbit Hole |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Justin Timberlake The Social Network |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Dropping Off – Ed Harris, Bill Murray
The Gurus
Anthony Breznican –
Greg Ellwood HitFix
Pete Hammond Deadline
Eugene Hernandez indieWIRE/NYFS
Peter Howell Toronto Star
Dave Karger Entertainment Weekly
Emanuel Levy EmanuelLevy.com
Mark Olsen Los Angeles Times
David Poland Movie City News
Steve Pond The Wrap
Sasha Stone Awards Daily
Sean Smith Entertainment Weekly
Kris Tapley In Contention
Anne Thompson indieWIRE
Susan Wloszczyna USA Today
fascinating, will the charts be updated with the missing votes?
When are you gurus going to do Cinematography and Editing?
Nice to finally see som sreenplay predictions, but what about animated feature? Wouldn’t it be interesting to revisit that after the shortlisting and opening of Tangled?
And also documentary – would be nice to get some perspective on that too.
Nice to see an expanded list of predictions. I think True Grit will keep generating buzz as we head to its opening. It has officially taken over Black Swan as my most anticipated film to see this Oscar season!
Wasn’t Winters Bone adapted from a book? Why are so many gurus predicting it for original screenplay? (Not meant to be negative or anything)
Sad to see Jacki Weaver sliiping out of the top five – still think it is one of the preformances of the year.
Ghost- we are correcting this problem. However, it isn’t unusual for films made from source material to end up in Original… which is f-ed up, but what can you do?
I still say you guys are holding onto THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT and RABBIT HOLE too tightly. WINTER’S BONE just won the GOTHAM awards, an indie movie setting, so that will knock RABBIT HOLE out of its slot, and I wonder if the win for Polanski’s THE GHOST WRITER at the EUROPEAN film awards can help sneak that into the top ten. Doubt it since the American’s don’t give a hoot about other countries awards, but there’s still hope. Here is my latest list in order of how i think they stand a chance of winning.
1. TRUE GRIT – Great word of mouth so far, and it’s still yet to be realeased to the public. The Cohens are gold, and could win this one by a hair in a better than initially predicted field.
2. THE SOCIAL NETWORK – I love this movie. It’s mainly just a bunch of peaople taking, but Aaron sorkin has a way with words that just draws you in. It’s why West Wing was so popular. THis has a chance for the upset win, but i think with the Cohens coming onto the scene last, that might make too big of a mark on the minds of voters.
3. THE KING’S SPEECH – Recently i’ve had this as the winner because of the latest turning of the public tides towards it, but i feel that their attention is more a panicked search of the prognosticators to try and find something that can beat out the movie about a bunch of snotty know it all kids(THE SOCIAL NETWORK). THE KING’S SPEECH has great acting, (It’ll win at least two of the acting trophies) and is a heartwarming tale, ala A BEAUTIFUL MIND. But it just doesn’t do it for me, and with TRUE GRIT being a better “We can beat the snotty kids” movie, i place this one at its rightful place in third.
4. INCEPTION – This movie has the perfect mixture of action and depth, but i think it’s “BLOCKBUSTER” status knocks it out of real contention, like what happened to AVATAR last year. It still has a chance at the upset, Nolan is due an oscar, but I don’t think it’s happening this year. It’s a damn shame though, NOLAN has done some amazing work with THE PRESTIGE, THE DARK KNIGHT, MEMENTO, etc. . . Maybe he’ll be our new SCorcese, winning in the future for a lesser piece of work.
5. BLACK SWAN – PARANOIA! PARANOIA! THis is an awesome film, no matter what some idiots say. IF it weren’t for ARANOFSKI’S sometimes over playful way with the camera and story, I think this would be higher. But it still has an outside shot should word of mouth get stronger once it’s in more theatres.
6. THE FIGHTER – Like the movie, it’s the little guy trying to play with the big boys. THis one is getting a hard push lately with its advertising, but its just not strong enough to throw a good knockout punch to the real title contenders. (Sorry, had to play the boxing analagy game with this one, it’s the law I believe with boxing movies)Christian Bale might upset a win for Supporting actor, though. But no best picture shot.
7. TOY STORY 3 – a cute story, but this movie only makes the list because of the recently formed “PIXAR spot”. No chance for a win in live action category.
8. WINTER’S BONE – It’s already won at the Gothams, and although Jennifer Lawrence didn’t win the best actress award there, she still put on a possible oscar winning performance in the movie and that is why it makes it on this list so high in my opinion. It’s amazing! This movie is my pick for the “INDIE slot” on the list, beating out RABBIT HOLE, but it has no realistic chance for the best picture win. A good try though.
9. 127 Days – A good story by the man that gave us Slumdog Millionaire, but it doesn’t quite have the magic that the Oscar winner had to push this into any kind of real chance at the win. Danny Boyle is new oscar favorite though, and that’s why it makes the list.
10. THE GHOST WRITER – I still think this movie is a lot better than THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT, and RABBIT HOLE, two movies that i think are WAY over hyped and shouldn’t get any attention except for filler material in the acting categories. THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT would’ve been better had the focus just stayed on the kids throughout the whole story, and RABBIT HOLE is just too depressing. THE GHOST WRITER is Polanski at his best, with a great co-writer in HARRIS, and harks back to the old quiet mystery style of CHINATOWN in its search for the truth. Some write it off as commercial fluff and say it’s closer to Polanski’s THE NINTH GATE than CHINATOWN, but I say it has more depth than the eye is seeing the first time through, Needs multiple viewings. If it doesn’t make the list in BEST PICTURE, it better make it for either a script or Cinematography spot. This movie is too good to be overlooked.
And there you have it. That’s my list. Laugh, yell, spit on it as you will, but this is how I see it. THanks for the chance to post my pointless opinion. Have a good one, guys and gals. Keep writing the awesome articles Mr. Poland.
Oh yeah, i forgot my acting picks.
BEST ACTOR:
Should WIN – RObert Duvall – Get Low
Will WIN – Colin Firth – The King’s SPeech
BEST ACTRESS:
SHould Win – Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Will Win – Natalie Portman – Black Swan
BEST SUP. ACTOR:
SHould Win – Christian Bale – The Fighter
Will Win – Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
BEST SUP ACTRESS:
Should Win – Hailee Stanfield – True Grit
Will Win – Hailee Stanfield – True Grit (I olnly say this because i’d hate to see The King’s Speech almost sweep the acting awards with Helena Bonham Carter here)
Well, seems that black and foreign artists are out of the way this time.
Tapley is STILL low-balling Inception???
I don’t know how anyone can say “foreign artists are out of the way” – Firth, Kidman, Manville,Bonham-Carter and Rush are all foreigners (3 British, 2 Australian)with others on the fringe. Has The Way Back been released yet?
The Town > Shutter Island
Eckhart’s numbers look a bit screwed up…he shouldn’t be in fifth, right?
Yeah, Jake D is right–no way those two votes could put Eckhart in fifth given the math of the other votes.
It’s Hailee Steinfeld, not Stanfield.
Corrections:
-STEINFELD, not Stanfield
-Aaron Eckhart has 6 points, not 16
If I’m correct, the “Vote” total is the number of critics who voted for this person – in the case of Eckhart, 2 (that’s his total) critics placed him. Then the “Total” is weighted – how many votes were 1st place, how many were
second, etc etc.
That’s how Firth – with 15 who’ve placed him, and all but one of those 1st place – gets 74 votes. Each first place is worth 5 points, 2nd place four points … etc.