Gurus o’ GIobes Gold: Dec 10, 2010
THE OSCAR RACE
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The King's Speech |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 116 | |||
| 2 | 2 |
The Social Network |
4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 105 | |||
| 3 | 4 |
True Grit |
1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 79 | |||
| 4 | 3 |
Inception |
5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 76 | |||
| 5 | 5 |
Toy Story 3 |
6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 66 | |||
| 6 | 6 |
Black Swan |
2 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 59 | ||||||
| 7 | 8 |
The Fighter |
7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 51 | |||||
| 8 | 7 |
The Kids Are All Right |
8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 37 | |||
| 9 | 9 |
127 Hours |
10 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 22 | ||||||||
| 10 |
The Town |
10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 16 | ||||||||||
|
Winter's Bone |
9 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 15 | |||||||||||
| 10 |
Rabbit Hole |
9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 11 | |||||||||||
|
Shutter Island |
9 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
The Ghost Writer |
9 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Another Year |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
THE GOLDEN GLOBES RACE
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Best Drama | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The King's Speech |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 50 | |||||
| 2 |
The Social Network |
2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | |||||
| 3 |
Black Swan |
3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 24 | ||||||||
| 4 |
Inception |
4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | ||||||||||
| 5 |
The Fighter |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 12 | |||||||||
|
True Grit |
5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||
|
127 Hours |
4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Rabbit Hole |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Another Year |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Ghost Writer |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Town |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Blue Valentine |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Best Comedy/Musical | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
The Kids Are All Right |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 53 | |||||
| 2 |
Alice in Wonderland |
5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 26 | ||||||||
| 3 |
Love & Other Drugs |
3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 | |||||||||
| 4 |
Made in Dagenham |
4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | |||||||||||
| 5 |
How Do You Know |
3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | ||||||||||||
|
Easy A |
2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
|
Morning Glory |
3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
|
Toy Story 3 |
4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Burlesque |
5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Casino Jack |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Nowhere Boy |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Tourist |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Tamara Drewe |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
RED |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Date Night |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Greeneberg |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actor/Drama | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Colin Firth The King's Speech |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 55 | |||||
| 2 |
James Franco 127 Hours |
5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 33 | |||||
| 3 |
Jesse Eisenberg The Sociai Network |
2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 | |||||||
| 4 |
Javier Bardem Biutiful |
4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | |||||||||
| 5 |
Jeff Bridges True Grit |
3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | |||||||||
|
Leonardo DiCaprio Inception |
3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
|
Leonardo DiCaprio Shutter Island |
4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
|
Robert Duvall Get Low |
5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Aaron Eckhart Rabbit Hole |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ryan Gosling Blue Valentine |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actor Comedy/Musical | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Johnny Depp Alice in Wonderland |
2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | ||||||||
| 2 |
Jake Gyllenhaal Love & Other Drugs |
2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 26 | ||||||||
| 3 |
Harrison Ford Morning Glory |
5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | |||||||||||
| 4 |
Robert Downey, Jr. Due Date |
5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | |||||||||||
| 5 |
Paul Rudd How Do You Know |
2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | ||||||||||||
|
Aaron Johnson Nowhere Boy |
1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | |||||||||||||||
|
Jim Carrey I Love You Phillip Morris |
3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
|
John C Reilly Cyrus |
4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
|
Michael Douglas Solitary Man |
3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
|
Steve Carrell Date Night |
4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Paul Giamatti Barney's Version |
2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Bruce Willis RED |
3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
|
Kevin Spacey Casino Jack |
5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Kevin Spacey Casino Jack |
1 | 1 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ben Stiller Greenberg |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Johnny Depp The Tourist |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Mark Ruffalo The Kids Are All Right |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Zach Galinfinakis Due Date |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
John Malkovich RED |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actress Comedy/Musical | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Annette Bening The Kids Are All Right |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 54 | |||||
| 2 |
Anne Hathaway Love & Other Drugs |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 32 | |||||||
| 3 |
Julianne Moore The Kids Are All Right |
4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 31 | |||||||
| 4 |
Sally Hawkins Made in Dagenham |
3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | ||||||||||
| 5 |
Emma Stone Easy A |
4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | |||||||||
|
Reese Witherspoon How Do You Know |
5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
Rachel McAdams Morning Glory |
5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
Julia Roberts Eat Pray Love |
4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Helena Bonham Carter The King's Speech |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Tina Fey Date Night |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Cher Burlesque |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Christina Aquilera Burlesque |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Katherine Heigl Life As We Know It |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actress Drama | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Natalie Portman Black Swan |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 55 | |||||
| 2 |
Nicole Kidman Rabbit Hole |
3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 40 | |||||
| 3 |
Lesley Manville Another Year |
5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 | |||||
| 4 |
Jennifer Lawrence Winter's Bone |
2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 25 | |||||||
| 5 |
Michelle Williams Blue Valentine |
4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 14 | |||||||
|
Tilda Swinton I Am Love |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Hailee Stanfield True Grit |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Hilary Swank Conviction |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Supporting Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Christian Bale The Fighter |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 52 | |||||
| 2 |
Geoffrey Rush The King's Speech |
3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | |||||
| 3 |
Mark Ruffalo The Kids Are Alright |
2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 | |||||||||
| 4 |
Andrew Garfield The Social Network |
4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | ||||||||||
| 5 |
Justin Timberlake The Social Network |
5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | |||||||||||
|
Matt Damon True Grit |
4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
|
Jeremy Renner The Town |
5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
|
Jack Nicholson How Do You Know |
5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Vincent Cassel Black Swan |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Michael Douglas Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Sean Penn Fair Game |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Bill Murray Get Low |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Pierce Brosnan The Ghost Writer |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Sam Rockwell Conviction |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Supporting Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Helena Bonham Carter The King's Speech |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 46 | ||||||
| 2 |
Melissa Leo The Fighter |
5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 38 | ||||||
| 3 |
Amy Adams The Fighter |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 25 | |||||||
| 4 |
Hailee Stanfield True Grit |
2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | ||||||||||
| 5 |
Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom |
4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | ||||||||||||
|
Marion Cottilard Inception |
2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
|
Diane Wiest Rabbit Hole |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
|
Miranda Richardson Made in Dagenham |
5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||||
|
Cher Burlesque |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Kristin Scott Thomas Nowhere Boy |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Mia Wasikowska The Kids Are All Right |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Barbara Hershey Black Swan |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
I think I’ve seen every possible spelling of Hailee Steinfeld’s name on this site except the correct one.
Also, what precisely qualifies MADE IN DAGENHAM as a comedy (not the least significant being that it’s not funny)?
If Easy A does not get nominated for Best Comedy than the HFPA can go to hell, or to reference another movie that was snubbed in the past, be dragged to hell.
Also, my one-vote wonder for Best Actor/Comedy, Luke Wilson in Middle Men.
Are they really calling Alice in Wonderland a comedy? I would not.
Not that it will matter. The HFP has never nominated a family adventure film as best picture; no Harry Potter or Narnia or Pirates of the Caribbean. (I would not count Lord of the Rings or Avatar as family films.)
Based on their history, I would back RED over Alice in Wonderland.
The math is wrong on Julia Roberts who should have 4 mentions and 8 points. Given that this IS the woman who got a nomination for Charlie Wilson’s War, I think she’s in ahead of Emma Stone or Sally Hawkins should they decide to consider Eat Pray Love a comedy. Which…I mean, it’s more of one than Made in Dagenham.
“The math is wrong on Julia Roberts who should have 4 mentions and 8 points. Given that this IS the woman who got a nomination for Charlie Wilson’s War.”
Eeh… I would go even further: She was nominated last year for Duplicity!
I was just about to go off to bed and made the mistake of reading this. Again, is this what you guys (and gals) *want* to be nominated or *think* will be nominated? I guess if I knew that, I’d be less annoyed.
John Hawkes? WINTERS BONE? Anyone? ANYONE?? How can “everyone” agree his performance was a revelation and chilling and all that (which is was) and dude doesn’t get a PEEP for supporting actor?!? Not one “guru” throws a nod his way. hate awards season for stuff like that.
I mean….Greta Gerwig for GREENBERG. Why the hell NOT? Is every freeking woman leading a film today some kind of establishment or conglomerate like the Yankees that guarantees a shot at post-season? Just because Julianne Moore or Annette Bening are IN a film doesn’t mean they are guaranteed. Unless….you’re picking ponies. If that’s the case then, well, pick a long-shot you cattle.
Blah. To bed!
Further on Julia Roberts score: it should actually be 9 points, barely out of the top 5 in what is a particularly weak category (though not as weak as Comedy/Musical Actor).
I’m surprised to see The King’s Speech as the outright favourite. I suspect as the season moves on that The Social Network will firm up its favouritism status. I’m also shocked to see Winter’s Bone at 11th. It seems like a sure bet for a nomination, if there is such a thing.
And Carey Mulligan for “Never let me go”??
I loved DiCaprio in both “Inception” and “Shutter Island”, so I hope he could get sme nod…
@Don R. Lewis:
The Gurus are PREDICTING who and what will get awards,
NOT stating their personal preferences.
I lot of people misunderstand this, so don’t feel badly.
You could call the Gurus cynical, because they think neither the Oscars nor the Golden Globes will recognize Hawkes and Gerwig.
If they were giving their personal choices, WHICH THEY AREN’T, things might well be different.
Them’s the rules for how the Gurus play.
Casino Jack a comedy? Because of the pacing and editimg? I don’t agree this is not a comedy. Spacey in at the top of his game. Really good script. The subject is serious,
Saw ANOTHER YEAR last week and I simply don’t think Lesley Manville should be up for Best Actress. She’s fantastic in it but the movie is primarily about Tom (Jim Broadbent) and Gerri (Ruth Sheen). The final shot is an extended one of Manville, though, so I guess an argument can be made using that.
Nappnt Home run! Great slugging with that answer!