Gurus o’ Golden Globes, Post-Nominations
THE OSCAR RACE
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The King's Speech |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 97 | |||||
| 2 | 2 |
The Social Network |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 91 | |||||
| 3 | 7 |
The Fighter |
5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 64 | |||||
| 4 | 4 |
Inception |
4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 55 | ||||||
| t5 | 5 |
Toy Story 3 |
9 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 54 | |||||
| t5 | 3 |
True Grit |
3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 53 | |||||
| 7 | 6 |
Black Swan |
6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 52 | |||||
| 8 | 8 |
The Kids Are All Right |
7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 37 | |||||
| 9 | 10 |
The Town |
8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | ||||||||
| 10 | 11 |
Winter's Bone |
9 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 12 | |||||||||
| 9 |
127 Hours |
10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 12 | |||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
| 12 |
Rabbit Hole |
10 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 13 |
Shutter Island |
10 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
|
Another Year |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
THE GOLDEN GLOBES RACE
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Best Drama | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The King's Speech |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 44 | ||||||
| 2 | 2 |
The Social Network |
1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 32 | |||||||
| 3 | 5 |
The Fighter |
3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 22 | |||||||
| 4 | 3 |
Black Swan |
5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | |||||||
| 5 | 4 |
Inception |
4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Best Comedy/Musical | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The Kids Are All Right |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 45 | ||||||
| 2 | 2 |
Alice in Wonderland |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 29 | |||||||
| 3 | t13 |
RED |
5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 22 | |||||||
| 4 | t9 |
Burlesque |
4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | |||||||
| 5 | 12 |
The Tourist |
3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 12 | |||||||
| 7 |
Morning Glory |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 |
Made in Dagenham |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 |
Love & Other Drugs |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 |
Easy A |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 |
How Do You Know |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actor/Drama | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Colin Firth The King's Speech |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 50 | |||||
| 2 | 2 |
James Franco 127 Hours |
3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 30 | ||||||
| 3 | 3 |
Jesse Eisenberg The Sociai Network |
2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 | ||||||
| 4 |
Mark Wahlberg The Fighter |
4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | ||||||||
| 5 | 10 |
Ryan Gosling Blue Valentine |
5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | ||||||
| 9 |
Aaron Eckhart Rabbit Hole |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 |
Javier Bardem Biutiful |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 |
Jeff Bridges True Grit |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 |
Leonardo DiCaprio Shutter Island |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 |
Leonardo DiCaprio Inception |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 8 |
Robert Duvall Get Low |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actor Comedy/Musical | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Johnny Depp Alice in Wonderland |
3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 37 | ||||||
| 2 | t7 |
Kevin Spacey Casino Jack |
1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 30 | |||||||
| 3 | t11 |
Paul Giamatti Barney's Version |
2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 25 | |||||||
| 4 | 2 |
Jake Gyllenhaal Love & Other Drugs |
4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 22 | |||||||
| 5 | 14 |
Johnny Depp The Tourist |
5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 11 | |||||||
| t9 |
Michael Douglas Solitary Man |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| t11 |
Steve Carrell Date Night |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| t7 |
Jim Carrey I Love You Phillip Morris |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| t9 |
John C Reilly Cyrus |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 |
Harrison Ford Morning Glory |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 |
Aaron Johnson Nowhere Boy |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 |
Robert Downey, Jr. Due Date |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 |
Paul Rudd How Do You Know |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 13 |
Ben Stiller Greenberg |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actress Comedy/Musical | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Annette Bening The Kids Are All Right |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 43 | ||||||
| 2 | 2 |
Anne Hathaway Love & Other Drugs |
4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 28 | |||||||
| 3 | 3 |
Julianne Moore The Kids Are All Right |
2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 23 | |||||||
| 4 | 5 |
Emma Stone Easy A |
3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | |||||||
| 5 |
Angelina Jolie The Tourist |
5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 15 | ||||||||
| t6 |
Rachel McAdams Morning Glory |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 |
Sally Hawkins Made in Dagenham |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| t6 |
Helena Bonham Carter The King's Speech |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| t6 |
Reese Witherspoon How Do You Know |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Actress Drama | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Natalie Portman Black Swan |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 45 | ||||||
| 2 | 2 |
Nicole Kidman Rabbit Hole |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 30 | |||||||
| 3 | 4 |
Jennifer Lawrence Winter's Bone |
3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 | |||||||
| 4 | 5 |
Michelle Williams Blue Valentine |
4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 | |||||||
| 5 |
Halle Berry Frankie & Alice |
5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | ||||||||||
| 3 |
Lesley Manville Another Year |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 |
Hailee Stanfield True Grit |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Supporting Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Christian Bale The Fighter |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | ||||||
| 2 | 2 |
Geoffrey Rush The King's Speech |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 34 | |||||||
| 3 | 10 |
Michael Douglas Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 25 | |||||||
| 5 | 7 |
Jeremy Renner The Town |
5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 12 | |||||||
| 4 | 4 |
Andrew Garfield The Social Network |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 12 | |||||||
| 6 |
Matt Damon True Grit |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 |
Justin Timberlake The Social Network |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 |
Mark Ruffalo The Kids Are Alright |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 |
Vincent Cassel Black Swan |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 |
Jack Nicholson How Do You Know |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Golden Globes, Supporting Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Hernandez | Howell | Karger | Levy | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Smith | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 |
Melissa Leo The Fighter |
1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | |||||||
| 2 | 1 |
Helena Bonham Carter The King's Speech |
3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 34 | ||||||
| 3 | 3 |
Amy Adams The Fighter |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 26 | |||||||
| 4 | 5 |
Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom |
5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 16 | |||||||
| 5 |
Mila Kunis Black Swan |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 13 | ||||||||
| 4 |
Hailee Steinfeld True Grit |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 |
Miranda Richardson Made in Dagenham |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 |
Kristin Scott Thomas Nowhere Boy |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 8 |
Diane Wiest Rabbit Hole |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 |
Marion Cottilard Inception |
0 | 0 |
People seem really determined to keep The King’s Speech at #1, despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Keil, it is simple math. Inception, Social Network and Black Swan have lots of people that don’t like it. Toy Story has plenty of Academy members who will even refuse to see it because it is animated and therefore not a “real” film. The Fighter has people who aren’t crazy about it and the director has a reputation for being a horrible person. The Kids are all Right is gay and seems small in scope. Winter’s Bone and the Town don’t feel like real winners.
But what really matters is that the voting for Best Picture is Instant Runoff. That means you do NOT win by being the most popular. You win by a combination of two factors. Being well enough liked to last through the first five rounds of vote elimination. Being well enough liked that on average you have a higher vote than the other film.
The math says that any divisive film will never ever win Best Picture, unless there is a year where only divisive films are nominated.
Every year that instant runoff is used, the film that wins will be the film that the vast majority of academy members just cannot vote lower than 5th. Last year that movie was the Hurt Locker.
This year, The Hurt Locker slot movie is King’s Speech. No one will actively dislike the movie enough to vote it lower than sixth, so it is pretty much mathematically impossible that King’s Speech will lose. Unless a concerted campaign is made to educate academy members to vote strategically and vote King’s speech down.
“Social Network” has lots of people that don’t like it? And what exactly makes you speak so surely about that?
I HATED it! It gave me a headache! That IRRITATING performance by Jesse Whatisname! UGH! The Academy is NOT a big fan of the Internet. Some of them are not even online or own a computer, though they won’t admit it.
This film is celebrating or glorifying something that the Academy wishes would just GO AWAY. Which is the internet.
Most of them aren’t on Facebook and consider the whole thing intrusive and a violation of the privacy.
But they LOVE “The King’s Speech”!
But there’s also the fact that almost every single important guild is handing Best Picture to “The Social Network” instead of “King’s Speech.” The Hurt Locker last year won both influential New York and L.A. best picture awards on its road to the Oscars, a feat which The Social Network has also managed to do this year.
If anything, The King’s Speech is losing its frontrunner status for looking “too much” like award fodder.
Many influential reviewers seem to be holding onto the notion that the King’s Speech will take home the Oscar; but it’s simply because the British period film fits the bill as a “true-story turned drama about overcoming obstacles” that the Academy should recognize.
As well, many Academy voters often look towards the popular critic consensus to direct their vote, which “The Social Network” currently dominates, sporting a 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, while “King’s Speech” is at (a still admirable) 93.
I’m not bagging on the King’s Speech, but I’m just saying: Fincher’s film deserves to win because it’s dark, fresh, new, and completely rooted in our time. Five years from now, if the King’s Speech wins, will it still be considered the BEST, most groundbreaking and important film of 2010? Chances are, no.
Which is why Aaron Sorkin and Co. should be the ones to win.
I agree with Joseph T. However, I think we’re about due for another questionable Best Picture pick, which is why I think The Social Network will win Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay but will lose out on Best Picture. I think the hestitation for giving The Social Network the #1 slot is that it feels like the type of film that will lose out in the end. With the uplifting The Fighter starting to make surges (and buzz is that members of the Academy loves it), I wouldn’t be surprised if The Fighter ends up the ultimate winner. I posted that I thought The Fighter should have been #3 back in Novemeber for having the potential to be the spoiler of a King’s Speech/Social Network battle. And now everyone caught up with my thinking. If The Fighter does well at SAG, I’d watch out for a Crash-like surprise.
If Danny Boyle won, i cant see why Fincher will not win this time.
Inception should be the winner, for being original, and amazingly directed, even with his flawed script, Inception is why people like movies, and want to do movies.
The Fighter? what is this? 1960 all over again?
I love movies and I enjoyed Inception very much, but I don’t agree that it should automatically win. While the movie’s idea was exciting, fun and unique, the characters were not. Unique stories do not a Best Picture make. It is the overall experience of story, characters, visual and emotional stimulation that makes a Best Picture. IMHO
Stephen, you either didn’t see “The Social Network” or you didn’t get the real plot of the movie. This movie wasn’t about the internet any more than Inception was about dreams. “The Social Network” was a court room drama film about the lawsuits that were brought on to the founder of Facebook. This movie does not celebrate the internet. In fact a lot of geeks hated this movie because it didn’t focus on Facebook site or the internet like they had hoped. They too missed the boat.
It’s funny that you think that the Academy hates the Internet. I haven’t seen any evidence of this especially since one of its members is Steve Jobs, founder of Apple. I think “The Social Network” has as much of a chance as any of the movies in this list to win Best Picture.