Weekend Estimates by Chronic Klady
So… The Narnia opening still sucks, the Tourist opening is bad, considering that you have to go back to From Hell to find an opening as weak for Depp (Sweeney Todd opened to less, but on less than half the screens) and even for Jolie, you’re kinda looking at Alexander as a comparable start, taking size into account. Yes, it will do business overseas and they may find a way to not lose a ton… or they may lose a ton. We’ll see in time.
Tangled has now past the past two Disney Animation Thanksgiving releases. Mulan goes down this week, then Pocahontas and Lilo & Stitch. Tarzan‘s $171m is far away, but not impossible. It really depends on how much of the under-12 market Yogi Bear eats through the holiday.
Strong numbers for Black Swan, The Fighter, and The King’s Speech, pretty much in that order. Someone wrote me to ask whether I thought something new was happening with these big per-screens and whether it had anything to do with digital projection. No and no. Interlocking projectors to show a movie on addition screens at a theater to meet need is a decades old occurrence. But The Fighter, for instance, is currently playing on four screens at the Arclight Hollywood, including the Cinerama Dome, 2 screens at Lincoln Square in NY, 3 screens at Boston Common, and I can’t find a fourth theater or city. Maybe they are counting The Dome as a fourth house. (ADD, 1:53p Reader Rob writes, “The fourth location for The Fighter is Showcase Cinemas in Lowell, Mass.”) Black Swan is, for instance, in 3 theaters at various venues in NYC.
This launch for The Fighter is almost identical to The King’s Speech‘s launch a couple of weeks ago. But there are very different strategies to follow, with The King’s Speech waiting on awards, still in 19 venues on this, its third weekend and Fighter going to at least 2200 screens next weekend. Fighter will be looking for a weekend of at least $17 million before duking it out in the rich holiday period. You kinda get the feeling that this weekend’s 4-screen release was only a hat tip to the many critics groups voting this week, comforting them in their possible votes while asking them to embrace True Grit, for instance, is still asking them to embrace a commercial unknown.
The Black Swan numbers are stronger than Brokeback Mountain‘s, though that seems to be the best box office comparison so far. In an interview with the WSJ, Searchlight said that they would be going to 1000 screens on the 22nd. Interesting. I would probably try to push that to next weekend, avoiding True Grit… but then again, The Fighter may be stronger commercially, at least at first. I just think they can probably beat The Fighter on half the screens… and can probably do the same against True Grit. So why not maximize the season?
It’s a good problem for Steve Gilula to have… how to maximize a hit that they weren’t 100% sure was such a hit outside of the arthouse world.
No such problem for Disney and The Tempest.
Congratulations for “Black Swan”. Its expansion is doing great, as opposed to “127 Hours”.
“The Tempest” doesn’t open as well as expected. I guess Disney may also be surprised by the weak reviews the movie recived.. (Disney took over the movie from Miramax) Another incident to prove that critics are unpredictable…..
I doubt whether Disney was all that surprised by the lackluster opening/reviews for “The Tempest,” Mary.
Their lack of high-stakes awards campaigning with critics’ groups (no screeners were shipped out) sort of indicated they knew the reviews weren’t going to be what they’d once hoped for.
The whole thing smacks of cut-and-run to me.
All things considered, I’m a little stunned that the NYFF even picked “The Tempest” as their centerpiece movie this year.
Love that Unstoppable has legs….Go UNSTOPPABLE, the best action movie of the year.
“to hell”?
i believe you are referring to “From Hell”
The fourth location for The Fighter is Showcase Cinemas in Lowell, Mass.
I am… and thanks, Rob.
The Tourist is a dreadful film, beginning, middle and last. But I suspect it will do well outside of the US. I’m outside the US, and those in the audience who seemed to really, really (and I mean, REALLY) enjoy were those whose first language is not English. I have no idea why, but they were laughing and gasping all the way through.
“Go UNSTOPPABLE!”
Amusingly ironic cheer
“Unstoppable” is a perfect example of the recent b.o. doldrums (confirmed by this weekend’s chart).
How the **** has the best action movie of 2010 not banked $100-million by now?
It’s been chugging along for five weeks, and still hasn’t crossed the magic $100-million threshold….which, at this point, it’s unlikely to ever see.
Would it have done better in summer?
movieman — you’re jumping the gun a bit re: ‘the tempest’…while no screener was sent to a few critics’ groups, i’m told there will be screeners going to academy members to accompany the campaign….and disney did hold a press day with mirren, taymor, brand, hounsou and cumming so it wasn’t exactly ‘cut and run’…..
Scooter-
I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney pulls the plug on ever giving “The Tempest” much of a (wide-ish) nat’l release after its tepid b.o. opening and equally lukewarm crix reception. I’d love to be proven wrong since I’m a big Taymor fan (one of the reasons I was p***ed off they didn’t send out screeners), but it really seems like the dye is cast.
Scooter-
…and while I’m on the subject of missing screeners, do you have a rational explanation as to why Sony didn’t ship awards consideration screeners of “How Do You Know” and “Country Strong” to major critics groups?
Since neither film was screened in the Cleveland market (and because I haven’t read ANYTHING about either film yet), I have no idea whether the lack of screeners has more to do with a lack of confidence in the films themselves (i.e., they suck); or mere stinginess. Hell, I remember the year Sony shipped “Stuart Little 2” and “XXX,” and they certainly couldn’t have expected either one to build any awards season traction.
I would have thought it’d be a proviso of James L. Brooks’ contract that every one of his films receives a proper, full-throttle awards marketing campaign (including mailing screeners to every significant crix group). Like, say, “Spanglish” in 2004 (which Sony did ship).
Re: “Strong.” I’m guessing all they really care about is getting Paltrow a Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) Golden Globe nomination, and maybe one or two song nods.
i wouldn’t give up hope on the sony screeners if i were you…it wouldn’t be the first time screeners arrived around christmas…that said, ‘how do you know’ is a major disappointment but ‘country strong’ was a real surprise…much darker than i expected with some solid performances and authentic sounding music…i don’t think it would make a list of five but ten, maybe so…
The Tourist > Unstoppable
Well, that just ends the argument right there, doesn’t it?
-1 > The Tourist > Unstoppable
That should start it right back up.
The Tourist is pleasant and delightful. Jolie looks hot, Depp mugs amusingly, Bettany and Dalton are solid, and STEVEN FUCKING BERKOFF YEP YEP VICTOR MAITLAND POWER.
A solid B, B-minus popcorn movie. Audience seemed to like it.
Doubtful whether Sony will be sending any screeners out after “How” and “Strong” both got shut out on the nominating ballot, Scooter.
I still can’t fathom Sony’s stinginess this annum. Remember when they sent out screeners of “Cadillac Records” and “This is It”?
Even if the shipped had sailed on the Brooks movie–I’m taking you on your word that the film is a disappointment–Paltrow and a song (or two) might have had a chance at nominations.
I still wouldn’t be surprised if Paltrow (and Reese) score “Best Actress: Musical/Comedy” GG nods.
Uh.
“….ship had sailed.”
How Do You Know not only wasn’t screenered, it wasn’t screened for BFCA or, as far as I know, for most other groups.
I really don’t get the animosity that seems to be directed at THE TOURIST. It’s by no means great and could be much better but the leads are very fun, it’s very pleasing to look at, there are a few pretty great sequences, and, as Lex wrote, there’s some really welcome supporting players that I didn’t expect to see.
I think maybe A-list popcorn movies (KNIGHT AND DAY, THE NEXT THREE DAYS) are held to different standards because of the level of talent, even if they’re better and more interesting than other, comparable films. If expectations can be kept in check, I think THE TOURIST is worth seeing as a light Hitchcockian throwback, if not much else.
The Tourist is not a good movie.
It’s not the worst movie we’ll see this month. But it’s not good.
And it’s frustrating, because of the talent, and that you can smell they were on to an interesting idea that they just couldn’t get together.
Context is not irrelevant. They had massive resources and failed to make a good film. Why shouldn’t that frustrate people?
I’m not saying it shouldn’t frustrate people but that I don’t get why genuine attempts at adult entertainment seem to be met with so much scorn when inherently mediocre and cloying movies aimed at the mall crowd seem to get simple shrugs, or even passive acceptance. I guess I’m just inclined to embrace even an attempt at something more substantial and in keeping with Hollywood tradition, even when it’s a failure ultimately.
I agree that when I see Depp or Joli, or two of the really wonderful screenwriters credited, that I, and we as an audience, should want something great but I think it’s okay now and again to accept a movie as being minor yet interesting.
I’m with you JKill.
As I often tell folks, I am much more interested in something that aims high and falls short than something that aims for mediocrity and succeeds.
Minor yet interesting isn’t worth $11 a ticket though. It’s worth home viewing in 6-8 months on Cinemax or Starz.
I saw Narnia over the w/e. Man, what a completely uninspired movie. I wonder if there was any sort of disconnect with the movie using a buncha doe eyed kids welding proper British accents? I realize the origin of the source material and not directly suggesting the cast shoulda been swapped w/Yanks but I don’t know if I wasn’t immediately whisked off to Been there/Done that land before the opening credits had even finished popping up on the screen.
Luckily, it was on someone else’s dime but let me save you any additional fee should you be required to see this film. The 3D is bunk! DO NOT waste your money. I guess it’s supposed to be the whole immersion 3D and not crap flying out at you. In and of itself, I suppose this is fine but the effect it had on the film created about as much warmth as the lobby of an emergency room.
The “It’s so rare we get stuff aimed at adults” thing is just as bad as “It’s for KIDS! What do you want from it?!” What’s bad is bad, no matter who it’s aimed at. I haven’t seen The Tourist myself, but the actors don’t seem interested in the ads, and hell, the ads themselves don’t seem interested in the movie, which is a red flag for me, and this is coming from a person who LIKES The Truth About Charlie.
Straatmann, from what I remember of it, I liked THE TRUTH ABOUT CHARLIE too, mostly for the French New Wave thing that Demme did with it. I think there’s a tendency to want to annoint every single movie as either a complete disaster or a homerun when obviously that’s not the case. THE TOURIST is by no means great or that good (I don’t really disagree much with DP’s “non-review”, which is full of great points and perceptive), but it’s by no means worthless, as I keep seeing argued here and there on the web.
I’ll agree with the Internet’s tendancy to label anything that’s “not good” as “ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE!” But of course, people also like to inflate their reviews with hyperbole or try to find the perfect snarky comment to get attention. It doesn’t get as much traffic to say, “The movie was just kind of eh, I guess.”
I try to avoid this by making sure I watch one absolutely terrible movie every year. Caligula, After Last Season, Odin: Space Sailer Starlight 160-minute international cut (Last one’s a little obscure, but DON’T. GO. LOOKING FOR IT. I literally bought a used copy so someone else wouldn’t). No pausing unless it couldn’t be avoided, no breaks. No booze. Puts things in perspective very easily.