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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Yogi Klady

Is there anything much more to say about the weekend? The visual effects sell opened Tron Legacy and history tells us that it will get to $200m domestic off of this opening. If that happens, it will be only the 17th time in history that a December opener hit $200m domestic. The only film that has been positioned as less than A Hit coming off of that number is Peter Jackson’s King Kong.

At $16.m projected, Yogi Bear has a shot at $100m+… or not. Not much competition in the niche.

Nice number for The Fighter, though it can’t be leaving Paramount too comfy, as it may just be a Wahlberg number. Films of his that had none of the hoopla around them – Shooter, Invincible, Four Brothers – all opened to more on the populist star’s shoulders.

The juxtaposition of Fighter and Black Swan fascinates me. After a small word-of-mouth release, Paramount pushed Fighter out like a commercial movie. Searchlight is doing a relatively slow burn on Swan, in spite of some strong early indicators that the film was a big buzz film outside of the industry-heavy markets. Looks to me like the two films could end up around the same domestic number, getting there in completely different ways. Or not. Fighter could gain heat, though it’s not actually a feel good movie. And Swan could take off, especially with teen girls, but it also may have shot its wad o’ heat. No one actually can know how these films will play out as we work through awards season, until it actually happens.

Strong numbers for The King’s Speech. But who knows there either? Will anyone under 50 ever go see this film? They can probably get to $80 million or more without a tween in sight. And127 Hours treads water weakly, hoping for awards help.

Red is the biggest grosser for Summit that isn’t a teen vampire movie. As fall phenoms go, it’s right there with The Social Network domestically, though, interestingly, TSN beat Red by a significant margin overseas.

Unstoppable turned out to be a strong Denzel Washington title, but not one of his rare breakouts. It seems that the movie is too simple to be explained in the marketing… and that simplicity is really the reason the film is so good.

Due Date is heading to pass $100m… which isn’t The Hangover, but is really quite remarkable for a 2-man show that is so happily centered on a relentlessly nasty character.

How Do You Know, a romantic comedy shot mostly in rooms, could become the single biggest financial flop of 2010. I’m sure commenters will be quick to offer lists. But with a total worldwide gross that may be less than $50 million and a cost said to be well over $100 million, Sony could be eating $50m – $75m on this one, which as best as I can tell, they funded on their own. That makes Green Zone and The Wolfman look, well, horrible, but not as horrible.

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62 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Yogi Klady”

  1. Sarina says:

    Who spends a 100 million dollars in a romantic comedy? Didn’t anybody learn anything from “Town and Country”?

  2. Gustavo H.R. says:

    Isn’t THE NUTCRACKER IN 3D a big flop, too? Cost 90 million (without P&A?) and has grossed 200k thus far?

  3. SJRubinstein says:

    “Tron: Legacy” is so weird. I remember sitting in “Sky Captain” and thinking, “Wow, look at all this!” and feeling really, really entertained and only later did I kind of see all the holes. While watching “Tron,” I was totally caught up in the flick, silly dialogue and all. Was it art? No clue. Am I glad I saw it on the big screen opening weekend? Fuck yeah!

    Do I basically feel the same way about Paul W.S. Anderson’s “Soldier” and fear that revisiting it will totally change my mind? Kind of!!

  4. anghus says:

    i had a great time at Tron Legacy. Really entertaining,
    above average mainstream entertainment.

    I don’t understand the disdain.

  5. Proman says:

    How Do You Know, cost Sony only $100 million.

    “Shot in rooms” is a glb comment considering that half the movie’s budget went to talent.

    As mentioned above, Nutcracker 3D is the bigger flop BY FAR. But that movie has sat on the shelf for two year.

    “But with a total worldwide gross that may be less than $50 million”

    This, is fucking hate speech. At this point in time you cannot claim this. How Do You Know might even get close to that number domestically.

  6. Krillian says:

    I thought hate speech was “Kill the Jews!” not “this movie’s a flop.”

  7. LarryGopnik says:

    Proman, whose cock at Sony are you sucking (or rather, which Sony employee are you)?

    The movie is absolutely wretched. Not only didn’t it play with critics, audiences loathe it too. My (paying, middle-aged, target-demographic) audience was loudly disdainful during the film, and check for the Cinemascore rating. Even factoring in the holidays, I’ll be SHOCKED if this hits $30 million.

  8. LexG says:

    HOW DO YOU KNOW: A-minus.

    YEP YEP. An utter delight. Witherspoon has rarely been so fetching.

  9. LexG says:

    Unrelated so second post:

    It’s pretty/very clear Poland really, really has it in for THE FIGHTER but hasn’t reviewed it. It’s one of those things he’ll deny, but his every incidental mention of it is riddled with that underselling, downplaying vibe he reserves for movies he secretly dislikes but never really goes there with a review.

    His “it’s not an uplifting movie!” meme is pretty odd considering how inspiring both brothers’ arcs are.

    That said, those numbers really aren’t very impressive.

  10. Joe Straatmann says:

    I’d hate to be that guy, but “Hallows” has been misspelled on the board for WEEKS, the misspelling has been brought up multiple times, and nothing has been done to fix it. I’ve had my balls busted for less back when I could find a reporting job, but apparently, it’s okay for a professional Hollywood site to make this gaffe over and over?

  11. anghus says:

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows is the inevitable porn version.

    Dave’s just thinking ahead.

  12. movieman says:

    I agree with you that “The Fighter” is ultimately an uplifting movie, Lex.
    That’s why I think it’ll do well in the long run, despite a fairly mediocre opening. (Its current–and forthcoming–award nominations won’t hurt either.) The thing to remember is that it’s a pre-Xmas December opening, and adult films traditionally don’t pick up b.o. steam until December 25th.
    While on the subject of “Fighter,” did anyone else get a distinct “Guide to Recognizing Your Saints” vibe? Or was I just imagining things? Btw, that isn’t a knock: “Saints” made my 2006 10-best list.
    Who else has seen “Fockers 3”? I’m not a big fan of the series (they always felt like one, two joke at best affairs, albeit dressed up with classy casts), but “Little Fockers” is truly the dregs. The sight of all that A-caliber talent squandered on Viagra and projectile vomit jokes made it feel like the most depressing (and desperate) studio comedy of the year. I’m thinking this may ultimately underperform–after a quick, holiday-fueled start, of course–and turn out to be the weakest grossing “Fockers” to date…as well as the, uh, most expensive.
    Finally caught up with “Tamara Drew” the other day (anyone seen that???), and found it to be a minor (if considerable) pleasure. I was particularly taken with Dominic Cooper as the surprisingly sweet-natured rock drummer–particularly since he’d never made much of an impression in any of his previous roles (e.g., “Mamma Mia!”)
    My hunch is that “Tamara” probably needed bigger names (say, a Keira Knightley and/or Colin Firth) to make an impression on American audiences (and, apparently, most critics).
    It’s worth checking out on DVD, especially if you’re as big a Stephen Frears fan as I am.

  13. LexG says:

    Gemma Arterton fan here (unsurprisingly) and would’ve otherwise seen “Tamara Drewe,” but it came out in that bloodbath fall where like 8 movies were coming out every weekend.

    And at the time I’d just seen “Disappearance of Alice Creed,” and after that I figured I COULDN’T POSSIBLY see any more of Arterton in anything else.

    Plus there was some bit in the trailer where she had this fake nose that was REALLY off-putting.

    No Colin Firth, but, hey, it had “the Christopher Hitchens guy” from The Queen and V For Vendetta!

    Fockers = ALBA = sky is the limit at the box office.

    Hottest woman EVER. Or second.

  14. hcat says:

    Those Tron numbers have got to cause some worries. A Saturday drop in the first weekend of a Disney movie, that just cannot bode well. This December is going to look horrible compared to last years numbers. Even discounting Avatar as some sort of phenomenon, is there anything that can match Sherlock or the Chipmunk numbers dropping in the next few weeks?

  15. movieman says:

    Alba’s character is actually a pretty major problem in “Fockers.”
    No spoilers, but her behavior in the third act defies rational comprehension and further sinks an already soggy vessel.
    No Gemma nudity in “Tamara,” Lex; sorry. But silly fake nose and all, you still might enjoy the movie. It’s being released on DVD in February.

  16. movieman says:

    Even discounting Avatar as some sort of phenomenon, is there anything that can match Sherlock or the Chipmunk numbers dropping in the next few weeks?

    Hcat- Unless “Fockers” has better legs than I’m suspecting, no way in hell.
    Who would have guessed that “How Do…” would be outgrossed by the second weekend of “The Tourist”?

  17. jesse says:

    LarryGopnik, citing the “audiences hate this” or “audiences love that” info is always kind of suspect. I saw How Do You Know early this afternoon at a half-full theater and people seemed to like it OK. It got some laughs, and I didn’t overhear anyone griping about it. The worst I overheard was some ladies behind me saying basically that it was okay but not great, they wouldn’t watch it again, etc.

    I’m sure some people will hate it. Even liking it — and I did; I just liked watching a romantic comedy where I actually enjoyed watching all three main characters and found their dialogue thoughtful even when it went overboard with the self-analysis — I could recognize what a strangely slow-moving and sometimes stilted movie it was. But there wasn’t an uprising against it with my paying crowd. I’m not doubting that it happened at your showing, but I do find that people tend to take their showing of whatever movie as some kind of perfect microcosm when that’s not always the case.

  18. jesse says:

    Movieman, there totally is Gemma Arterton nudity in Tamara Drewe, if a fleeting glimpse of her ass counts! I also enjoyed it (the movie, not just her ass), and far more than I expected from the trailer.

    I actually didn’t have a problem with Alba in the Fockers movie — except for the strange sensation that in some scenes, she was funnier than Stiller or De Niro or Wilson, which shouldn’t be the case. Her subplot also suffered from the whole movie’s weirdly stitched-together feel, like each cast member apart from De Niro and Stiller was only available for about 36 hours total.

  19. anghus says:

    i’m not worried about Tron ‘numbers’. The fact that the film even got made is a miracle. Sign me up for the TV series Disney’s doing. After that, if Tron vanishes again into the pop culture cuisinart, fine.

    i don’t know why we’re worried about Tron Legacy in terms of box office. There is no precedent. a sequel to a 28 year old cult film that no one asked for.

    Dare i say, this film has no precedent. Nor will it’s final box office numbers matter one bit to other films in the future.

    If it tanks, disney might cancel stuff like Black Hole. Not exactly a tragedy.

    I think there are some films that defy logic. Tron Legacy is one for the books. I enjoyed the hell out of it. It’s not going to be a disaster for Disney. Might not be mega-huge, but i think it will slow build the holidays to 170+ million. Internationally, i have no clue.

    But i don’t think you can use any history to gauge Tron Legacy, nor do i think you can use it’s success or failure as a future metric.

  20. hcat says:

    Did Paramount drop the ball and open Morning Glory too early? I can see how looking at it on paper not wanting to go up against How Do You Know, but with that bombing and Fockers looking dreary (and I say that being a fan of the first two), Glory could have postitioned itself as the multi-generational choice for the next couple weeks.

    A few months ago I thought Life as We Know it, Glory, Love and other Drugs, and HDYK all had potential of passing 100 mil. I am completly flabbergasted that none of them came close (and that the Heigl was the BO champ).

  21. hcat says:

    Anghus- I think you can guage that if a movie is going to rely heavily on the family audience and it drops on the saturday of its opening weekend, the family audience might not be as revved up for it as they had hoped. I agree the holiday season throws these things off a bit, but disagree that there are not indicators that we can look at.

  22. movieman says:

    Jesse- Not sure how I missed the fleeting Gemma butt peekaboo in “Tamara,” but c’est la vie, lol.
    I found Alba charming (and more animated/less waxworks-y than usual)
    in the first half of “Fockers,” but…THAT scene…defied all credibility and logic and made me question whether it was her character (or the screenwriters) who were insane.
    But what a dismal affair all around. Worse comedies have banked beaucoup bucks this year (“Grown Ups” anyone?), but I’ve got an inkling this could be the “Fockers” that officially kills the franchise.
    Hell, even the title is misleading since the Fockers grandkids barely figure into the plot (or plots). It is, however, a fairly catchy title which is probably the only reason they picked it.

  23. anghus says:

    hcat, plus this is a movie where the story is aimed at boys/teens and the 3D factor might rope curious adults.

    i see nothing in this for tween/teen girls. missing that component is what will kick out the legs from underneath it.

  24. Krillian says:

    Disney’s not worried about Tron’s numbers. It should hold up pretty well Christmas weekend. Fockers will probably be #1 even though it looks bad, as Gulliver’s Travels looks worse (aka the movie Emily Blunt could not get out of so she could be in Iron Man 2.)

    How’s True Grit tracking?

    Actually, where’s a good “how they’re tracking” website? I don’t see much on that except when Finke or Wells happens to publish something over a title they love/hate.

  25. Joe Leydon says:

    Something to think about: I’ve often read LexG and others on this site wax nostalgic for certain films they saw repeatedly on cable while growing up in the ’70s and ’80s — certain box-office under-achievers that, frankly, I reviewed unenthusiastically (or downright dismissively) during their original theatrical runs. (I’m looking at you, Tron.)And here’s the thing: The people green-lighting movies these days are, by and large, a lot closer to LexG’s age than mine. They’re kinda-sorta partial to the films they grew up with. And for them, and for a lot of other folks their age and younger, well, maybe the idea of a Tron sequel was more appealing than I could ever expect, or even understand. So if Tron Legacy does go on to hit $200 million or more domestic — maybe we’ll be seeing remakes of, or sequels to, movies like… oh, I dunno, Willow? Legend? Labyrinth? The Last Starfighter (which I actually liked a lot)?

  26. IOv3 says:

    The Last Starfighter should have been sequelized already. It’s that awesome. Seriously… awesome.

    Hcat: you had people with younger kids go see Yogi Bear or even Narnia. That’s people with young kids. Now, everyone else, TL should get pretty damn good word of mouth.

    You stating there’s nothing in there for teen girls and what not, sort of ignores that these type of films never draw girls because girls are not into this sort of thing.

  27. David Poland says:

    1. I don’t think anyone will hate How Do You Know either. It’s not bad enough (or ever close to good enough) to be hateable.

    I hated Spanglish… but I think it was a better movie… because as self-involved as it was, it at least was reaching for something. HDYK is pocket pool.

    2. I don’t hate The Fighter. I like The Fighter. But I do think it’s wildly overrated and in the end is neither fish nor fowl. It’s not a good boxing movie. The boxing is poorly shot and though the hero is redeemed on some level, it’s not very heroic work. And as social drama, it fails to examine anything very closely.

    Here is a question for fans of the film… the movie starts and has a recurring theme of HBO making a movie about Dickie and his crack habit. Why does Dickie do crack? Do we know ANYTHING about Dickie’s core issues?

    You can argue that the movie isn’t about that… but I ask, “Why not?”

    The movie should have been called, “Dickie & His Brother & 7 Sisters.”

    There were so many things I found interesting in the film… and I didn’t feel like any of them were explored in a way that ended up being satisfying.

    People can like what the want. To me, the movie is getting embraced by some for having so many threads, but for me, they are all loose ends.

  28. Krillian says:

    If Spanglish is better than How Do You Know, and you called Spanglish the Worst Movie of 2004, then can we expect HDYK to be on your Worst Ten list this year, and if not, are you saying 2010 was that much worse than 2004?

  29. hcat says:

    Joe – Don’t you think that has been what’s behind the ‘remake every horror movie made between 1971 and 1987’ strategy? (and where’s my April Fool’s Day remake damnit!!!) Or why they keep threatening to remake The Warriors.

    I would argue that this is certainly why comic book movies took off like they did, because the filmmakers grew up with these charecters and have a strong passion and affection for them.

    I would be behind a Starfighter remake, though I can’t think of anyone who could begin to fill Preston’s shoes on that one.

  30. hcat says:

    IO – Yes, families did go to see Yogi (it had a 50% increase on saturday), but certainly not in a significant number. You’re crazy if you think Disney is not targeting squarely at kids in the Tron marketing campaign and expecting them to bring their parents along.

  31. LexG says:


    They DID remake April Fool’s Day, about two-three years ago. I think it mostly went DVD.

  32. brack says:

    Tron’s take was $6m for Monday. Not bad.

  33. matt says:

    Much of the Tron marketing seems to be aimed at kids, however, there was an “ElecTRONica” event being held nightly at California Adventure for a few months, turning one section of the park into a futuristic danceclub. Needless to say, there weren’t many young’ns there. My opinion is they’re going for multi-sector appeal on this one.

  34. hcat says:

    Matt – You are right that nobody makes a $200 million movie and aims at one demographic. But Disney is aiming to include a younger crowd than say Inception was. They do with all their projects, there is a Disney audience, and all I was suggesting is that with a Saturday drop they may have gotten a front loaded geek crowd on opening day but not the massive family push they were hoping for. It’s gross shrunk each day until Tuesday where it leveled out. Most kids are out of school so if it stays steady throughout the week we can see better how it will perform.

  35. Joe Leydon says:

    HCAT: “Joe – Don’t you think that has been what’s behind the ‘remake every horror movie made between 1971 and 1987′ strategy?”

    Yes, for sure. But even those remakes haven’t grossed as much as I suspect Tron will. At this rate: Maybe we’ll see Cloak and Dagger II — or maybe even the long-awaited (not by me, mind you, but by a lot of other people) sequel to Buckaroo Banzai — any day now.

  36. hcat says:

    I do see what you mean that if Tron can be resurected there is hope for Even Bigger Trouble in Little China. But I do think we need to take into account that Disney was probably looking down the road at properties they had that uniquelly fit into 3D. Without the promise of 3D who knows if Tron would have been greenlit?

    But in a year when profits from a The Karate Kid remake will be used to offset films by James Brooks and Florian Hammerschmidt Don Wessleyheimer, I can’t really argue with your points.

  37. Joe Leydon says:

    OK, let’s face it: With Christmas coming, we ain’t going to get many more new posts from David anytime soon, so we’ll be left to our own devices. Let me toss this out to Hcat — and everyone else — this question: What ’80s movies remakes and/or sequels would you like to see?

    I’ll start out: Jason Stratham and Jay Baruchel in Runaway Train.

  38. cadavra says:


  39. yancyskancy says:

    Joe: Remember 1985’s CERTAIN FURY with Tatum O’Neal and Irene Cara (and directed by Jake Gyllenhaal’s dad, Stephen). The tagline was “Two Academy Award Winning Stars… In the one motion picture that hurtles them from innocence – to fear – to rage!” Remake that with Anna Paquin and Jennifer Hudson and you don’t even have to change the tagline.

  40. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, with Keanu Reeves as Bill AND Ted.

  41. hcat says:

    Don’t really want to see it but I think a Cera/Hill remake of Planes Trains and Automobiles is inevitable.

    And its a television adaption from the eighties but I think there would be a weird beautiful symetry to have Katt Williams in a movie adaption of The Greatest American Hero. As long as Idris gets the Robert Culp role.

  42. christian says:



  43. hcat says:

    Stephen Chow is SUPERFUZZ

  44. leahnz says:

    dear people,

    please don’t ever attempt to remake the 80’s movie ‘the killing fields’ because that would break my heart and make cry. don’t fuck with perfection.



  45. leahnz says:

    ps, you can remake ‘the man with one red shoe’ with paul rudd and richard jenkins (drawing a blank on the female lead)

  46. hcat says:

    I think it was Lori Singer that wore perhaps the most backless of all backless dresses in Red Shoe.

  47. christian says:


  48. LexG says:

    Anything from the ’80s with John Stockwell could be EASILY remade by just casting Lucas Black.

  49. christian says:


  50. hcat says:

    Christian- I am heading over to seperate you from your keyboard before you get the chance to type GYMKATA.

  51. christian says:

    GYMKATA. With Jackie Chan.



  52. Good Dr. Not Bordwell says:



  53. hcat says:

    Danny Aiello may have to switch in for the late Vic Tayback

  54. hcat says:

    We joke about all this yet somewhere right now salaried people are working on a remake of the Monster Squad and a sequel to Goonies.

  55. Good Dr. Not Bordwell says:

    I might also prefer Carrie Fisher in the Kate Jackson role, hcat.

  56. leahnz says:

    lol, christian step away from the 80’s remakes

    lol, loverboy w/the same cast

    (that brings to mind for a sequel: i just watched ‘body heat’ the other day and sadly i can’t even remember now if hurt’s character ned racine was meant to get the needle/gas chamber/chair at the end or just destined to rot in prison, but if the latter i suggest hurt finally gets out on parole in 2011 and sets about hunting down turner as mattie walker to exact revenge in a thriller choc full of intrigue, twists and a great deal of ‘mature’ nudity for the ages)

    hcat, i couldn’t think of an actress to play the lori s. character in ‘red shoe’ off hand…

  57. Good Dr. Not Bordwell says:

    How about…

    REAL GENIUS with Ed Westwick?

  58. hcat says:

    Well she is irreplacible. Here we are talking about 80’s movies and haven’t scratched the surface of her brother’s Marc’s ouevre. In my impressionable youth he was my favorite actor due to the one two three punches of If You Could See What I Hear, Beastmaster, and the V miniseries. I can just imagine he and Micheal Pare getting together often for drinks and wondering where the hell they went wrong.

  59. hcat says:


    oh right.

  60. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Flight of Dragons remade by Miyazaki.

  61. christian says:

    I was not joking.


Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4