7 Weeks To Oscar: And So, Phase One Ends…

The truth is, Phase One – the period before Oscar nomination voting closes – ended a little over a week ago. You could hear the hardening of the awards arteries if you listened carefully to the air currents on the west side of Los Angeles.

It’s been an unusual season already, as there has been more of an effort to be influential on the season by some and more of a willingness to be influenced by others. We can all choose to live in the delusion that there are five films that deserve to dominate at virtually every guild. Or we can deal with the not-so-thrilling reality that everyone, high and low, is now chasing Oscar’s coattails, even as Oscar sweats out their own place in the big TV picture in the future.

There wasn’t much of a change, so far, through the holidays, as it turns out. (Keep in mind, this is when Crash turned the corner slowly enough that it wasn’t noticed until the film was nominated, somewhat unexpectedly at that point.) True Grit surged with unexpected popularity… and then, was relegated to also-run (or also-nom’ed) status by the media after the New York Times made the argument. Black Swan got stronger and stronger with audiences – stronger than the media darling The Fighter, a movie that is looking more and more like this year’s The Wrestler – but is still fighting off rage in the senior circuit. (“What was with the thing and the other thing?!?! Junk!“)

The battle for the top slot seems to be The King’s Speech vs The Social Network.

But don’t be too sure.

Or too dismissive.

The Inception pitch is now that it’s Gladiator, a film that won versus what was, by consensus, better films, but a group without a clear frontrunner, sending the default to the biggest hit… which was also well-respected, etc.

True Grit would be your back door man, pulling a Crash or Million Dollar Baby, finding a stride amongst an Academy voting base that really, really didn’t want to vote for the frontrunner.

Black Swan is the darkest of horses, a passion movie, love or hate, that would hope to sneak in from the outside, while the big horses fought over position against the rail… the Marissa Tomei of Best Picture nominees… smokin’ hot, skillful, and profoundly unexpected.

But the money is still on The Journalists’ Choice, The Social Network or The Senior Movie Lovers’ Choice, The King’s Speech. And I have to say, I am still waiting to meet the first Academy member who offers up Social Network – a movie everyone respects enormously – as their first choice.

But that doesn’t make me “right” either.

What is both fascinating and apparently frustrating to many about the Oscar season is that anything really is possible. Alleged rules are broken all the time. But then again, things don’t change by that much. It’s not unlike the political system or Dorothy Parker’s take on Katherine Hepburn’s acting range… it runs the gamut from A to B.

This is, by the way, about the time that all those people who were shockedshocked by the idea of an Oscar award show just 2 weeks from today in future start complaining about how boring and predictable the whole thing is. And they aren’t wrong.

They were wrong earlier. Apparently we need six full weeks to determine whether Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Hailee Steinfeld, and David Fincher are going to go home with Oscars or if the person in the seat next to them will. Annette Bening, Geoffrey Rush, Melissa Leo, and Tom Hooper will be happy to talk about being honored just to be nominated while waving golden boy around.

Just wait until you read the story about the Scott Rudin vote being split! It will be so convincing and such utter mularkey!

No one’s changing their mind by too much in the next few weeks. Graciousness, charm, some well spoken words, and a well tailored outfit of six are all irrelevant to determining the best work of the year. But that’s about all that’s left.

And the funny thing is… it could matter. A lot.

Or we could just watch the coronation and hope that the new producers can come up with an entertaining show with limited jokes about co-host James Franco’s arm and a whole lot of Anne Hathaway’s limbs flouncing about.

It’s the old saw about Hollywood movies… audiences want something new… but not too new. I think that audiences will probably be pretty safe on Oscar night.

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