8 Weeks To Oscar: It’s Getting Serious

Oscary History Shock,
The Contenders Chase The Clock.
Eight Days, They’re Done,
Phase II Begun!
Oscary History Shock

We’re getting down to the real nitty gritty now. That is, before we get to the next Phase and its very short rise and fall.

Everyone knows that nothing is settled. Columbia is re-releasing The Social Network on 700 screens in coordination with their DVD release of the film… which is likely a direct response to True Grit’s box office success and the press that has come of it (starting here). Ironically, Scott Rudin can’t lose, having produced both films, unless The King’s Speech wins. So expect a balls out effort for both Grit and Social from here until the end.

Weinstein: “I call that bold talk for a four-eyed formerly-fat man!”

Rudin: “Fill your hand, you son of a bitch!”

It’s a funny thing about Oscar season. Everyone whines that the prognosticators and the precusors don’t affect the season… yet every year, the season is narrowed and jostled around by both… not definitively, but undeniably. I agree 100% that there is a level of entitlement and presumption that is unseemly, as each cog in the machine is small and doesn’t change the game in and of itself… whether that’s the cover of Entertainment Weekly or a blogger who gets attention for some oddball insight.

And yet… Scott & Harvey are always somewhere to be heard from as we head into Phase II. They don’t always win. But they are always a presence.

It leads you to wonder whether if others were as committed to distribution and awards in the same thought, they could be as successful chasing the gold. Obviously, these are two men who are very smart about movies. But when you see this kind of consistency, one wonders whether it’s as much about commitment to an idea as it is a kind of genius.

As for everyone else… it’s a bit of a scramble out there. Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, and Inception are consensus “in the 10.” Can any of them win Best Picture? Unlikely.

So what do these five contenders do? Stop? Of course not. None of the three leading contenders are infallible. And split votes do happen, it seems, now and again. That’s been my argument for the very controversial Black Swan and has been Disney’s thinking on Toy Story 3.

On the other hand, securing what they actually think they can win is probably Jon One. Portman vs Bening for Best Actress is the non-BP showdown of the season. Will Christian Bale cost himself an Oscar by being completely unwilling to bow his head to Oscar? Can Searchlight score noms for Mila Kunis and/or Barbara Hershey and/or Vincent Cassel? And is Aronofsky a lock for a Best Director nod? (should be) Will Inception be this year’s 4 Oscar-winning effects movie?

After those 8, it’s very blurry out there, even in a narrowed field. Winter’s Bone, The Town, Another Year, 127 Hours… and darker horses Blue Valentine and Biutiful. Anything can happen. A lot of people are high on The Town because it is so well-liked and did excellent box office. On the other hand, Winter’s Bone was an indie sensation this summer and Another Year seems to hit older voters right where they live… and Mike Leigh has a history of being “in” when everyone thought his films were “out.” And what of 127 Hours, which gets a lot of love from people who see it and a lot of “ewww” from people who haven’t? And those dark, dark, dark horses. Is there 15% of The Academy that is in love with those films, even if – with apologies to both filmmakers, whose films don’t deserve this, even though it is the truth of the situation – the two films make the other 85% of Academy voters want to slit their wrists?

It really is time for some to “just be honored to be nominated.” And it’s no small thing. As we try to objectify the Oscars and the season, it is all too easy to forget that each of the people “in play” is a human being… even with Best Picture nominees, which represent hundreds of real, breathing humans who have a real emotional stake in the praise, even if they will not be known as “Academy Award Nominee (Your Name Here)” for the rest of their public lives.

For others, the war is just beginning, more intense and potentially violent (or just disappointing) than ever. For them, it’s the Rubik’s Cube of Irony™. They desperately try to figure out how to move the pieces into the right place, all the time knowing that they don’t actually have the power to force a win, but all the time fearing that the one thing they didn’t do will be the thing that somehow keeps their film from taking home the big prize.

That’s the schizophrenic passion that causes Pete Hammond (and others) to so often wonder aloud why the consultants and studios take something like Gurus o’ Gold so very seriously. And being caught up in the same seasonal schism, Pete wonders this while he earns hundreds of dollars every time he moderates a panel – sometimes 3 a night, probably over 150 a season – while also functioning as a journalist online and being paid for that… all of which happens only because everyone with a stake in the game takes it all so seriously.

No one can be blamed. Pete, for instance, masterfully plays the hand he has been dealt. Outsiders like to scream about how meaningless it all is, but for a lot of people, it’s their livelihood, and no less meaningless in their lives than the films are to the filmmakers. Obviously, these are all smart people who know what is frivolous and what should be embraced more seriously.

And… like Rudin & Weinstein, isn’t it funny how the same people who are perceived as being “good at this” continue to be there on Oscar night, getting those bonuses for wins big and small?

Like film itself, every frame has its own meaning, and all those frames together, projects at 24 per second, mean something else all together.

Be Sociable, Share!

• 
•