Gurus o’ Gold – February 3, 2011

Last Week’s Votes In All Categories Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3
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Rank Last Chart Best Picture AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The King's Speech
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 15 149
2 2 The Social Network
 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 15 133
3 3 True Grit
 3 3 3 4 5 2 4 3 3 2 5 4 4 3 3 15 114
4 4 The Fighter
 4 6 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 6 3 5 2 4 5 15 103
5 5 Black Swan
 5 4 5 6 3 5 6 4 5 4 6 3 5 8 4 15 92
6 6 Inception
 8 10 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 9 9 7 6 15 59
7 7 Toy Story 3
 7 9 9 5 10 8 7 7 8 10 4 6 7 5 8 15 55
8 8 The Kids Are All Right
 6 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 7 7 8 8 8 6 7 15 54
9 10 Winter's Bone
 10 5 10 10 8 9 10 10 10 5 10 7 10 10 9 15 30
10 9 127 Hours
 9 8 8 9 9 10 8 8 9 9 9 10 6 9 10 15 29

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We asked The Gurus to pick up to 3 of the most likely – though not necessarily likely – upsets.
Rank Last Chart Possible Upsets AppeloBreznicanEllwoodHammondHernandezHowellKargerLevyOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczyna Votes Total
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Supporting Actress 		* * * * * * * * * * * * * 13 13
Annette Bening
Actress 		* * * * * 5 5
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Supporting Actor 		* * * 3 3
David Fincher
Director 		* * * 3 3
The Kids Are All Right
Original Screenplay 		* * * 3 3
Winter's Bone
Adapted Screenplay 		* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Toy Story 3
Adapted Screenplay 		* 1 1
True Grit
Sound 		* 1 1
How To Train Your Dragon
Animated Feature 		* 1 1
The Social Network
Best Picture 		* 1 1
The Fighter
Best Picture 		* 1 1
Inception
Cinematography 		* 1 1

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Posted in Awards Update, Awards Watch, Gurus o' Gold, MCN Originals, Movie City News | 7 Comments »

7 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold – February 3, 2011”

  1. Bob Burns says:
    February 4, 2011 at 5:24 am

    If Deakins beats the TKS sweep, it will be an upset.

  2. movielocke says:
    February 4, 2011 at 12:00 pm

    Shouldn’t more analysts be considering the possibility that Social Network is not even the number two choice amongst the academy? Around town, the buzz I’ve heard for the last month has been that the two films in contention that people REALLY love are King’s Speech and The Fighter. King’s Speech and The Fighter are the only films to really win any guild awards so far, so I would think that would point to both films being stronger (an ACE win for Fighter isn’t out of the question, I think) with the Academy than they are with the press.

    I sort of feel that the clinging to ‘Social Network HAS to be number two!’ mindset is sort of selection/confirmation bias on the part of analysts. They don’t want to let go of their horse just yet (sort of like years ago, when DP pimped the monstrously great In America as hard as he could and stood by his horse the entire season–that was a year we needed ten nominees), but it’s interfering with the reality of the actual temperature of the industry. We don’t want a temperature of the press, but of the people who make the movies, if we’re trying to predict oscars that is.

    not that anyone cares, but I’d probably rank them (in terms of position in the oscar race):
    1. King’s Speech
    2. The Fighter
    3. True Grit
    4. The Social Network
    5. Black Swan
    6. Winter’s Bone
    7. Inception
    8. The Kids are All Right
    9. 127 Hours
    10. Toy Story 3

  3. Kristopher Tapley says:
    February 4, 2011 at 3:18 pm

    movielocke: See my ranking order.

    🙂

  4. filmgoer says:
    February 4, 2011 at 4:53 pm

    I am thinking “The Fighter” would be more likely as an upset contender over “The King’s Speech” than “The Social Network”. Blogger and pundits refusing to put aside “The Social Network” as a serious contender is more of a clouded liberal mindset that says this is a liberal minded film and I want it to win and it still has a chance to win, maybe. I would think Bale is a lock but the supporting actress race could now be between Steinfeld and Carter as some Academy members have stated.

  5. katsat says:
    February 4, 2011 at 6:01 pm

    Kris, I was wondering if you think that the hysterical advocacy of The Social Network with its related trashing of The King’s Speech by some critics has actually hurt the movie with Academy voters.

  6. movielocke says:
    February 4, 2011 at 6:38 pm

    Kris, I did see your ranking, and agree with you that Fighter is number 2.

    kat, I think the hysterical advocacy, which in general doesn’t really reach many academy ears, has little to no effect. The effects it does have are multifaceted and hard to generalize. You might even say it would be extremely foolhardy to make such generalizations. So, allow me to generalize.

    The trashing also probably has little effect; but going negative is a really bad strategy on the part of the press in rooting for their horse. It worked on Avatar because Cameron and the team didn’t even try to defend themselves, but going after King’s Speech with the same venom and viciousness the critical mob attacked Avatar with is sort of like kicking a puppy. It’s a bad move and it will make you unpopular. Additionally King’s Speech is only hampered by a Rain Man type of cliche, but no one sees it as either pandering nor as going ‘full retard’ to quote Tropic Thunder. King’s Speech has none of Avatar’s obvious ancient/universal/dead-horse archetype-orgy story beats that so crippled the film in discussions, and it is also not part of one of the dread genres like Science Fiction, rather King’s Speech is solidly within the privileged genre of Period=Important.

    I think the trashing of King’s Speech could cause some voters who hear it (for whom King’s Speech is not their first choice) to put King’s Speech a little higher on their ranked ballot, or maybe decide to put Social Network a little lower, or they might decide to just ensure that King’s Speech is ranked at least one slot above Social even if both are ranked 9 and 10.

    Remember, the race is won by being higher ranked, on average, than your competitors. Probably 60-70% of the ballots will cover first place votes for the lower 8 nominees, with the top nominees taking 30-40% of the first place votes between them. Those lower eight will have their advocates, people who worked on them and friends of people who worked on them.

    What really counts is the number two, three, four and five spots below the number one films of the lower eight ballots. As each film is eliminated and their ballots redistributed it matters a lot what order Social Network and King’s Speech are in, down-ballot. This is all presuming that those two wind up being the top two in vote tabulation, which is anything but certain. T

    But as unknowable as the tabulation is, be prepared that the press and bloggers who write about the 2010 oscars in the future will always declare Social Network as the second place film this year, simply because of all the critical fellatio the film has received. Just like everyone assumes that There Will Be Blood was the number two film in its year. We don’t know anything about who the runners up are or were. it would be crass to release such data in any event, despite how much it might assauge the easily bruised egos of cineaste writers who are personally offended that their favorite in a particular year (or more often, every year) was not selected.