Heading To CinemaCon (nee’ ShoWest)
I had a chat with our Len Klady over the weekend and he wondered what spin would be put on the 1st Quarter box office this year.
I’m not even going to start defending the issue, aside to say for the millionth time, “it’s the movies, stupid.”
But here is what I would ask people who think something is afoot… why now?
I know there are a good half-dozen reasons people like to spew… but why did they magically take effect in the last four months?
Why were people willing to pay the 3D bump just a year ago, pushing Alice in Wonderland to over $330 million domestic?
Why is Rango making less than the 1st quarter DreamWorks Animation 3D films… since people are so tired of 3D that they are now revolting?
How did last year’s top two Q1 comedies for $178 million, when this year, it’s been only $171 million (to date)?
It must have been obvious that The Book of Eli and The Green Hornet would do about the same amount, right?
And of course, Shutter Island being delay from October ’09 to February ’10 means nothing. There must be a film from some pair like Scorsese and DiCaprio, right? I mean, Limitless, The Adjustment Bureau, or Battle: LA could have been expected to do the same kind of business… right?
Oddly, I won’t be agreeing that there is a shift in the theatrical business when Thor opens to $38 million and not Iron Man 2‘s $128 million. But I will be concerned if Pirates 4 doesn’t open to $100 million or Hangover 2 or Panda 2 don’t do over $200 million domestic each. X-Men: Full Prequel doesn’t open to $80 million or better… call me and we can discuss the sea change happening.
Hop only opens to $40m? Don’t need to hear about it. If the lunacy of opening Arthur and Your Highness in the same weekend ends up meaning two openings in the high teens, not worrying about The Industry. Rio opens to the low 40s? Great! What’s the problem?
Ohhhhhh… the box office in this weekend last year was higher! Great stat! Thank goodness the studios release the same kind of picture with the same level of marketing support and equally attractive elements on the same weekends every single year. That makes it a really smart stat!
Perhaps if costs were tripling or quintupling and the business was up 10% or so, theatrical would be seen as a can’t miss Wall Street home run. Ha.
See you in Vegas.
Best article! Best place to find and print coupons of major brands during holidays is “Printapons” search online and find.
Would be SHOCKED if Thor only opened to $38 million and somewhat surprised if X-Men: First Class opens to $80 million. Thor is more-or-less the official kick-off film of summer 2011, a place where even Van Helsing can pull in $54 million in 2004 dollars. Unless the reviews are REALLY bad and/or Universal convinces America that Faster and Furiouser is the real kick-off movie (regulating Thor to the Speed Racer/Poseidon/Robin Hood position), then I imagine that Thor will open around $60 million. Of course, both of those things could happen, but at the end of the day we’re still talking a massively advertised comic book tentpole from Paramount, a studio that hasn’t failed to open a would-be franchise picture since at least May 2006 (if you count the $48 million debut of Mission: Impossible III a failure, which is debatable). I don’t think Thor has nearly the general-audience appeal of say Iron Man (which is why spending Iron Man money on it was nuts), but I have a tough time imagining it opening to less than Tron: Legacy.
Hate to admit it, but I’d argue that much of the general moviegoer interest in X-Men involved the character of Wolverine and certain ‘stars’ in the cast (Halle Berry, Anna Paquin, Patrick Stewart). The previous X-Men pictures were all about selling action/adventure and kid-friendly sex appeal, but so far X-Men First Class seems to be selling itself as a low-key drama with dark adult undertones and occasional violent conflict. It may make the movie look more high-class than, say, Green Lantern, but unless Fox cuts a more action-crazy trailer or two, I can’t imagine this star-less X-Men picture (also lacking in most of the recognizable mutants from the 90s cartoon and Konami video game) doing an equivalent opening weekend of X2 or X-Men Origins: Wolverine (which benefited from being the summer kick-off film). But would be happy to be wrong, especially if the film delivers.
But of course, the whole ‘this weekend was down from this weekend last year’ is horribly stupid and quite dangerous. If we want varied films in varied genres (and not just all-tentpoles all-the-time), then we can’t keep expecting the weekends to match or go up every time. Otherwise, yes, we’ll get headlines screaming that Limitless isn’t matching up to Alice in Wonderland.
For those who care – http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com/2011/03/there-as-no-slump-then-there-is-no.html
http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com/2011/02/explaining-slow-start-to-2011-box.html
Your Highness will barely crack $10M opening weekend. Arthur should do better.
I find it weirdly fascinating how certain slots become go-to spots for certain genres/filmmakers/stars/whatever. Like how for awhile, sci-fi in the fall would go on the last weekend of September. Why?! Has there ever really been a big success with putting sci-fi in that weekend? Universal finally broke the cycle with Adjustment Bureau, perhaps sensing: wait, there’s no reason to give this movie the same slot as Surrogates or Serenity just because it’s happened before. And if there was a big hit in the same genre some years ago, does that mean people are now more in the mood for sci-fi on that weekend? Permanently?? Programming so closely based on release schedules of the past seems crazy to me, though it’s fun to make a game of guessing at the logic behind it.
But really, this only proves David’s point about weekend-versus-year-ago-weekend stats: even with studios consciously deciding that weekend-to-weekend and/or season-to-season continuity can be exploited and that Sucker Punch is the 300 of 2011, they’re not going to replicate everything about its release unless they have an actual sequel (and even then, probably not). There aren’t mass decisions based on whether “the country” is going to the movies and they certainly aren’t thinking about how they saw 300 around this time of year four years ago or Watchmen two years ago or whatever.
Why do you say that, Hopscotch? (I’m actually curious, not necessarily saying you’re wrong, although I vaguely think you might be.)
I was going to concede that yeah, Danny McBride is not actually a comedy brand name with most of the country. But come to that, neither is Russell Brand: Brand has played the same character in a pair of moderate Apatow-related hits, and hosted a bunch of shows. McBride has had smaller roles but in some bigger hits, like Tropic Thunder and Pineapple Express, and a TV show that, granted, doesn’t reach as many people as hosting the MTV Movie Awards.
Brand is supported by Helen Mirren, Greta Gerwig, and Jennifer Garner. McBride has assists from James Franco, Natalie Portman, and Zooey Deschanel. Fame/recognition wise, I feel like they’re on similar footing.
Is it because Arthur is a remake, and isn’t rated R? That could help, I guess, but it’s not as if families will therefore flock to Arthur.
It is pretty silly that they’re coming out the same day. But I’d think Your Highness could clear $15 million just based on the Pineapple Express/stoner/broad comedy/Apatow-style (if not quite in name) sell. Arthur looks so mild!
Also that weekend: Why is Universal doing their baffling practice of releasing TWO movies on the same weekend? (Your Highness AND Hanna)?
You never see Paramount dropping two movies a MONTH, Universal is constantly doing the two-for-one (usually one under the Focus banner, but Hanna is an Eagle-style wide opener.)
That IS peculiar, especially given that 4/1, 4/15, and 4/22 are ALL arguably better release dates for Hanna, at least as I see it. Maybe the lady-thriller aspect makes Universal thing it should inch away from either Sucker Punch (taking out 4/1) or Scream 4 (taking out 4/15) but… I’m not seeing it.
Then again: what an awesome weekend, because both of those movies look rad. What a weirdly awesome in April in general; between Source Code, Your Highness, and Hanna, at least one of those has to be strong, right? If not two or three? Reminiscent of April 2004 when we got Hellboy, Kill Bill V2, and Mean Girls.
If Soderbergh’s HAYWIRE hadn’t moved (right? No one ever really said it moved but there’s no trailer or poster or anything) off of 4/22, it would look like one of the coolest movie months of the whole damn year.
Oh, and the Fast Five trailer makes that movie look totally fucking awesome, which is annoying, because the trailer for the last one did the same thing, and it kind of sucked. Still, if they’ve finally committed to a car-thieves-doing-a-heist story and not more undercover cop bullshit, maybe it’ll actually be that awesome.
By comparison, May sports perhaps the also-ranniest of the summer’s also-ran superheroes with THOR; a bunch of sequels to movies I didn’t love but didn’t hate (well, I kind of hated The Hangover); one programmer that looks like a proper April/January/Labor Day release (PRIEST!); and one Apatow movie that I really want to see. Oh, and that Malick movie. But still. I’d say April wins, unless all of its movies turn out way worse than their directors/etc. would imply.
I would guess Your Highness would edge out Arthur. Arthur just looks awful. Your Highness will attract those who want to see an R-rated stoner version of Princess Bride, Hanna’s for the offbeat action-thriller fans, Soul Surfer’s your inspirational drama, and Arthur… I don’t really know who this movie’s for. Families will either see Hop or wait a week to see Rio.
SOUL SURFER = LOOOOOK AT HER! AnnaSophia in her first bikini role = YEP YEP. Would prefer both arms.
LOOK AT HER BEING A LITTLE SOUL SURFER! YAY!
I can’t wait for ARTHUR to come out. Not because I want to see it, because I want to stop seeing the fucking trailer.
It’s seriously approaching Shutter Island/Soloist levels, where now I just wait in the theater lobby so I don’t have to see “AT LEAST SOMETHING IN THIS ROOM IS ATTRACTED TO YOU” for the 18th time since January.
They should make a whole movie where AnnaSophia, Dakota, Chloe, Elle, Saoirse, Hailee and Taylor Momsen play a LITTLE SURF TEAM and I play their beer-guzzling Walter Matthau style coach.
THIS IS A GOOD IDEA. I MEAN IT. A GREAT IDEA.
I’m with you jesse. April looks like it could be kind of awesome. I’d like to see Source Code, Insidious, Hanna, Your Highness, Scream 4, Water for Elephants, and Fast Five (haven’t seen 3 or 4 but the trailer is pretty cool).
Source Code and Insidious are getting good reviews so far. Insidious reminds me of the old Eddie Murphy routine. “Why is it when white people are in a haunted house, they invite more white people over to see?”
(And 20 years later he’d star in The Haunted Mansion).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96s1M8IyrUQ&feature=player_embedded
The end of the routine is my favorite. And yes, Eddie Murphy starred in a haunted house film the same year (2003) that John Malkovich played a jewel thief in Johnny English.
Jesse-
My prediction for Your Highness is based on the fact that while people might recognize McBride and certainly Franco and Portman, if they were in a “straight” comedy as opposed to fantasy / action / comedy the big audiences might go, but I just don’t think anyone “gets” what the movie is and doesn’t want to check it out. I’m 29, me and all of my friends are in the key demo, and I can’t convince any one of them to come see it with me. Bad TV spots and trailers to boot. My wife asked me – Why aren’t they releasing it on 4/20, use the pot thing as a marketing tool? Good question.
Arthur has a simple concept. We’ve seen it a million times, but it looks harmless and teens will go and parents might check it out too. So its based on that. Sometimes the bland / mild stuff opens decent.
Yeah I’ll back-up what everyone is saying: Between INSIDIOUS, SOURCE CODE, HANNA, YOUR HIGHNESS, WATER FOR ELEPHANTS, SCREAM 4, FAST FIVE and JANE EYRE (which hasn’t opened in my neck of the woods yet) there a lot of potentially cool/interesting movies about to drop. A lot of the time I actually prefer the “off” months as a moviegoer to the summer, which I usually feel is slim pickens.
Oh and FAST FIVE looks f’n awesome and ridiculous. FAST AND FURIOUS’s trailer was cooler than the actual movie was but I still would say I liked it. I actually like the whole series to varying degrees, especially the stupid/genius TOKYO DRIFT. I would’ve been more than supportive of Justin Lin directing GI JOE 2, for instance, as I think he nails the campy but still sincere, hyper over-masculinized action movie quite well.
I’m also always supportive of Paul Walker.
WALKER 4 LIFE
Biggest FAST fan on earth (or at least the biggest one over the age of 23)… Love TOKYO DRIFT, so…
Where’s Lucas Black?
Apparently F&F was the start of a NEW TRILOGY so maybe Black will come back in good time…We shall see.
Also, speaking of this series, it’s really weird that John Singleton’s next movie is a Taylor Lautner thriller for LG…I mean maybe it’ll be cool but that seems like an odd move.
Yeah but they’ve retained Sung Kang as the DRIFT representative for the fourth one and now this THEY’RE ALL BACK! EVEN TYRESE! entry; Black gets kicked to the curb. I also liked his hot girlfriend in that one (Nathalie something.)
Hmm well now I’m confused because I assumed they were playing with time and would maybe duck back in to THE DRIFT. I too liked Black a lot in that one. The opening is so insane with the car chase through the housing development or whatever it is. If they ignore Black and somehow bring back Bow Wow, I will be pissed.
And yes, I liked the girlfriend too. Although the entire series (especially the Lin ones) are kind of filled with scenes where oceans of hot girls dance or just walk around like the characters somehow walked into a rap video.
Also TOKYO DRIFT opens with that AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWESOME SIX DAYS song montage.
RULES ALL.
Plus don’t they wheel out BAWITDABA during the housing project chase, like eight years late? HAHAHAHAHA.
It’s funny because I remember when the first one came out it was around the same time as DRIVEN, and I was waaayyyyyy more excited about the Stallone. (Not to bring up the strangely controversial around these parts Renny Harlin again.)
UPDATED: HAHAHA. I totally forgot that. Yes, there is a little Kid Rock in the opening as well. Yet another reason the movie rules.
Actually I wonder if anyone remembers BIKER BOYZ, which actually had Kid Rock in, I think, his only acting role. It was a FAST AND THE FURIOUS rip-off, with motorcylces in the place of bikes. It stared Derek Luke and Laurence Fishburn. It was less of an action movie and more of a drama.
AMAZINGLY I have never seen Biker Boyz, even though it would be 100% up my alley in every way.
This coming from someone who, like Armond White, considers TORQUE to be an authentic American classic.
Martin “Not Breckin Meyer” Henderson might be second only to Paquin as the best thing ever to come out of New Zealand. Guy is INSTANT comedy.
BIKER BOYZ is decent from what I remember, although don’t go in expecting the lunacy of TORQUE. It’s pretty subdued with a solid leading performance from Luke.
I remember seeing TORQUE having no idea that it would be so strange and free of human reality or behavior. It’s really the pinacle of extereme, hyper-active, video game inspired filmmaking that I think THE TRANSPORTER movies and CRANK are a part of. Just nuts and hilarious. I remember cracking up everytime Ice Cube scowled at another actor. And the gunfights while riding the motorcyles, particularly the later scenes with Jamie Pressley, are incredible. This is one of the few times I’m with Armond White apparently.
1) I love the Fast and Furious films.
2) Biker Boyz is freaking hilarious and everyone should sit through it at least once. Seriously, there’s so much cheese in that film. You will feel like you are in Wisconsin while watching it.
3) Your Highness looks stupid and after Stern shared some plot points. I will be getting that movie at Hastings for a buck later in the year.
4) Unlike the shit in Your Highness, Russell Brand is awesome, and people appreciate his awesome. It should easily beat Your Highness. Easily.
and
5) LUCAS BLACK BETTER HAVE A DAMN CAMEO IN FAST FIVE BECAUSE UNLIKE THE TOKYO DRIFT REPRESENTATIVE… his character ended that movie ALIVE!
just quickly, the ‘furious’ movies are not in chronological order. the new one takes place after the fourth but before the third, which is obvious because whatshisdoodle the asian dude who’s dom’s friend is in the one coming out soon – fast five – and he dies in ‘drift’
Leah, I would agree with that sentiment if they did not already do a time jump in Fast and Furious. Unless they discount the time jump in Fast and Furious, then that makes sense. If the the time jump is still there, that dude is still dead, and there better be a damn explanation as to why he’s there and not… THE BLACK!
ETA: Also, seriously, if Tokyo Drift happens after Fast and Furious and Fast Five, then how in the hell is that guy not super freaking rich in that film? I NEED EXPLANATION FOR MY SILLY CAR MOVIES DAMN IT! Oh yeah, some exposition would be nice too :D!
Spring is always the best time of year for movies. Nothing but b-action pics and zombie movies and there’s always a grindhouse type of movies, like Grindhouse. There’s something about the flowers blooming and the new warmth of the sun to make me want to see motherfuckers getting shot and/or eaten.
Oh no, Stern is spoiling the plot of Your Highness???
there’s no ‘time jump’ io, ‘fast and furious’ just takes place many years after the original ‘the fast and the furious’ story. then in the interim, there’s the second one, “fast and furious 2: furiouser” or whatever it’s called, then in chronological order, ‘fast and furious’ occurs, wherein at the end they break dom out of the prison bus, and then this new one ‘fast five’ continues on that same story. ‘tokyo drift’ chronologically takes place last, AFTER fast five, because ‘han’ is in ‘fast five’, and he dies in ‘tokyo drift’, wherein dom turns up at the end to pay his respects. han alive in ‘fast five’, and he dies in drift. it’s an indisputable fact.
christ if that actually makes sense it’s a miracle, but it’s accurate
Makes sense and is correct. Surprised you remembered that so clearly; Even I barely remembered Sung Kang died in DRIFT, and I’ve seen it three or four times.
my boy has been on a ‘fast/furious’ kick of late, i’m not some huge FF aficionado
Again Leah, that blows my freaking mind. It really does.
Yeah, Stern brought up plot points and dear lord, they have guaranteed I am staying the hell away from that film.
leah, there was more thought into that paragraph about the fast and furious franchise then any of the actual films
that’s funny anghus
I’ve seen all four F&F films but I still couldn’t tell you the name of Paul Walker’s character. Chris?
YOUR HIGHNESS probably won’t do YEAR ONE numbers. A couple of years ago, Comedy Central had a series with a very similar premise, KROD MANDOON or something like that, and it died like a dog. So who’s gonna pay to see something they wouldn’t watch for free?
So Tron Legacy made more money worldwide than Star Trek.
And Dawn Treader ended making over 400 million worldwide.
interesting.
Krill, his character’s name is Brian O’Conner. I remembered the Brian not the O’Conner but yeah, I have a hard time even remembering Vin’s character’s name. Seriously, that’s weird.
Anghus, and that’s why there’s going to be a Tron sequel even if Disney does not want to make that Oblivion film. They will want to make a Tron sequel because there is cash in that franchise.
Is that little chick from DAWN TREADER a YEP YEP yet, or is she turning out too British?
YOUR HIGHNESS should tank miserably. It’s primary audience is under 13 and they can’t even go see it. What Green and gang forgot is that there’s a world of difference between the good natured tongue in cheek humour of SWORD AND THE SORCEROR and the utter sub-SPARTANS strain of humor in HIGHNESS. The arrogance of them doing the whole thing improv might be okay for their channel 101 submission but they shouldn’t expect anyone to fork out good money to see it on opening weekend. I’ve watched all the trailers and clips and the jokes just aren’t there. The most sure fire way to know a film is fucked? They resort to red band trailers where people say ‘ye cocksucker’. That’s funny? Talented guys but a DOA is required to bring them back to reality and for Green to maybe make a good film again.
Having not seen any Fast and the Furious movies, I am shocked that it has a timeline about as convoluted as the latter half of Lost…
Also dropping this week, that Clive Owen movie about the perils of CHATROOMS! Which seems to feature a plot about how people on the Internet MIGHT NOT BE who they say they are!, a revelation that wasn’t new when Dee Snyder tackled it in STRANGELAND in 1998.
And I love Clive Owen, really… but is he some special guy they call in when they actively WANT a movie to bomb? He’s like a paid assassin brought in to GUARANTEEEEEEE a movie will tank, like if Clive’s in the house, it’s a studio tax write-off a la Springtime for Hitler.
Also there’s a JOHN STOCKWELL movie dropping too? And SUPER?
The Clive Owen movie, Trust, was also directed by David Schwimmer. Dee Snider is still trying to make a sequel to Strangeland. It bums me out that after giving an amazingly awesome performance as Waingro in Heat, 3 years later the best Kevin Gage could do was Dee Snider’s Strangeland.
Actually the Your Highness red band trailers are the talk of the town in my age bracket (18-25) with everyone I know pretty psyched to see the film.
‘Magic… motherfuckers’ went over like gangbusters.
It will take a lot more than younger males to make Your Highness a hit and not a $10 million opener. Who else wants to see it? Look at how the lack of females and older viewers hurt Sucker Punch.
Paul I agree, I was replying to JBD’s ‘It’s primary audience is under 13 and they can’t even go see it’
Oh sorry about that.
Paul, fair point, but I’m sure Universal would be OK with Your Highness being “hurt” to the tune of a $19 million opening.
Well my thinking was that if Sucker Punch, with it’s PG-13 rating and (apparently) enormously expense marketing campaign, only opened with $19 million, Your Highness will be closer to $10 million. Anyone know how much YH cost to make? The Numbers puts it at $30 million to $50 million, which isn’t very helpful.
And cadavra, I think your logic is pretty muddled. You could find a failed TV equivalent of any number of successful movies, and vice versa. I don’t think many moviegoers, when thinking about whether they want to see something, consciously decide: “oh, there was something thematically or stylistically similar to this on TV. I can just see that for free at home” or “I didn’t watch that on TV, so I’m not going to pay to see this unrelated but thematically similar movie.”
Likely most people who go see Your Highness, be it a ton or very few, won’t have heard of the Comedy Central series. Maybe you’d have a point if there was some high-profile network TV belly flop associated with a bawdy comic fantasy, but a six-episode Comedy Central show isn’t exactly the same as a Franco/Portman starred advertised heavily as a Pineapple Express companion.
I’m guessing this movie will be good for at least $45 million if not 50-60. I guess that’s potentially Year One business (which opened to around 20 and finished with 43), but would it be viewed as a disaster with those numbers?
Hanna is the movie that, while I want to see it a lot, I can’t really see topping the $40 million mark (but maybe it doesn’t need to).
Hanna seems like a bomb waiting to happen. I want to see it as well but the TV spots I’ve seen don’t sell it very well and it has stiff competition.
Do you think there’s any Franco backlash, or is he not a big enough star to suffer a backlash? Just seems like he’s in the news daily, and after the Oscar show debacle, I wonder if people are sick of him?
Yeah I see Hanna actually doing pretty well. It can probably get the old folks in because of Joe Wright or because it has that CLASSY ACTION MOVIE sheen to it. Whateverthecase, that weekend is a cluster, and there’s no reason that it should be.
Are old folks Joe Wright fans IO? Not sure the TV spots have much appeal for older viewers. Plus, the fact that the Chemical Brothers did the music is getting pushed a lot, and that sure isn’t going to help with older viewers.
Jesse, I wasn’t referring to KROD specifically but the subject matter itself (stoner/slackers in a sword-and-sandal setting). I could also point out that MEET THE SPARTANS already covered this territory and did just okay business (though its low budget did make it quite profitable). But I could be wrong. HIGHNESS might turn out to be a massive hit–stranger things have happened. I’m only giving my perspective on why I think it won’t, and IMHO, we’ve been down this road plenty already and I just don’t sense a clamoring for more.
I’m thinking Highness is going to do a little business here. If even 1/4 of it’s jokes go, it’s retention for wk 2 shouldn’t be bad either. It’s not necessarily a “date movie” but I think it’s more of a compromise movie than Arthur, which for a while I thought would take it in the shorts but now I’m not so sure. I’m not exactly clamoring to see either but I wouldn’t be surprised if both cleared $18M. I’m not sure what expectations are or what they need to hit to not be considered disappointments. If the 4/1 movies are good, I think that would help persuade people to come back to the theaters a little more. Sure, b.o. is the movies but I’m not sure if people really feel like they’re missing anything.
So, Thor looks like shit:
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=75764
ARTHUR at least feels more like a male/female film than HIGHNESS, which smells like dudes-only to me.
I do not believe it may fall on the eReader soon. Your give an impression of a brand new publication is something a great eReader can’t duplicate.