MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady

It’s the biggest opening of 2011. It would have been the fourth best opening to this time last year, behind Alice in Wonderland, Valentine’s Day, and Shutter Island. 5 animated films have out-opened it in the months before summer: Ice Age, Ice Age 3, Monsters vs Aliens, Horton Hears A Who, and How To Train Your Dragon. All of those animated movies did over $150m at the box office. No one knows what Rango‘s legs will be like.

As I said yesterday, not a sensational opening. But hardly a bad one. $50 million, a number hyped by competitors, would have made it the best opening for an animated film opening before March 27 in history. But I would still say a little more than “Johnny is Rango” might have pushed the number up a bit. Remember that the big sell on Ice Age was the “squirrel” with the nut, not Ray Romano.

The Adjustment Bureau is not a box office car wreck. It’s no superstar either. God bless Matt Damon.

Beastly is now the perfect center of CBS Films’ box office opening prowess… #3 of 5 openers.

Kind of a boring movie weekend… just after everyone seemed to get hyped up on the idea of it being a big weekend. Rango ain’t Alice… but even at $60 million, no one was getting close to Alice this weekend. Listen to the box office boo birds if you like, but prepare to fell stupid in 6 months.

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19 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady”

  1. indiemarketer says:

    Amy Baer and Debbie Miller safe, but was “Beastly” really their LAST release of 2011? I don’t see another CBS Films release on the 2011 schedule. Talk about a Baer hybernating.

  2. actionman says:

    fucking LOVED the adjustment bureau — sooooo much fun

  3. Eric says:

    Yeah Dave I think you are right, in six months this slump will be forgotten. Even if the the rest of march is down starting with the weekend of april 15 the box office should start being up. You have rio and scream 4 opening and even if they underperform the comparsion would be Kick ASs which didn’t even break 20 milliom that weekend last year and after that remember how weak last may was expect for IM 2. Fast Five, Thor, Pirates 4, Kung Fu Panda 2, Hangover 2 compared to shrek 4, sex and the city 2, and Prince of Persia. Yeesh it won’t even be close. June may be as strong depending on whether Matthew Vaughn can make a good x-men movie despite Tom Rothman, Super 8 could be the sleeper of the summer, Green lantern, and cars 2 which may be the least popular pixar movie for adults but kids seem to love it based on merchandising. Rambled on for too long. the rest of the summer can wait.

  4. berg says:

    just got out of Take Me Home Tonight ….. Dan Fogler rules …. the movie itself seems wedged somewhere between The Wedding Singer (high point) and Hot Tub Time Machine (low point) as a retro 80s style comedy

  5. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    Isn’t a $21 million opening weekend for The Adjustment Bureau actually pretty damn good? The openings of recent non-Bourne movies with Damon as the lead: $12 million (Hereafter), $14 million (Green Zone), and $10 million (The Informant). Invictus was even worse at less than $9 million. Up against 3 other new wide releases, seems to me that an opening north of $20 million is fairly impressive and strong.

  6. chris says:

    What really would have “pushed the number up” for “Rango” is 3-D. With it, this would probably look like an excellent opening. (But I admire Verbinski for sticking to his guns, although it meant leaving money on the table.)

  7. IOv3 says:

    Rango probably would have looked awesome in 3D as well. I get sticking to one’s guns about 3D but when 3D is good, it adds to the film, and the 3D Bump doesn’t hurt either.

  8. NickF says:

    Take Me Home Tonight has been on the shelf for 4 years. Amazing.

  9. Glenn says:

    My favourite bit of “Rango” (which is a very good film) was when the lead character explains that his mother was a promiscuous slut who liked inter-special sex.

    I’m glad it did respectable business.

  10. leahnz says:

    ‘rango’ opens here this week, i’m so excited, can’t wait. looks like my cup of strange brew.

  11. LexG says:

    Adjustment Bureau: B-plus
    Take Me Home Tonight: B-plus
    Beastly: Halfway between an AWESOME D and an earnest B-plus

    I like things.

  12. movieman says:

    I know that I’ve complained about kidflicks cannibalizing each other in the marketplace (e.g., this past Xmas when “Narnia 3,” “Gulliver,” “Tron 2” and “Yogi” all opened right on top of each other.)
    But what about Weinstein/Dimension opening “Scream 5” and “Apollo 18” a week apart next month? Isn’t that “cutting off your nose to spite your face” craziness? …especially if “Apollo” is reportedly tracking like gangbusters, and the new Craven hopes to revitalize a long dormant franchise.
    Wacky, no?

  13. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    I think the two genre flms are polar opposites. SCREAM will be slick as eel shit and dominate and APOLLO looks cheap and lousy. Apollo tracking like gangbusters? Really? Maybe on the moon. It’ll be DOA. No one is interested in that thing apart from a bit of the DPs geek 8.

  14. movieman says:

    Not so sure about that, JBD. I’ve been hearing “Paranormal” style buzz about “Apollo.” And regardless of whether they’re good or bad, there’s certainly no denying that they’ll be competing for the same teen/twentysomething dollars. Opening them right on top of each other like that just seems perversely wrong-headed on the part of the Weinstein Bros.

  15. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Movieman.. really? Buzz from who? Critics? Independent viewers not attached to studio or frothing fan sites? There’ll be cross over but its not like they’re the same day. A week apart is fine these days when they can do 70% of their biz in that week. Distributors aren’t dumb even though there’s a lot of ammo to state otherwise. There’ll be very specific reasons why the dates are set like that. It won’t be accidental.

  16. LexG says:

    ALL about SCREAM 4.

    I don’t even know what APOLLO 18 *is*.

  17. LexG says:

    Also like how in the SCREAM 4 trailer, Emma Roberts and Hayden P. play LITTLE ROOMMATES. Mmmmmmmm. Hope they TRY SOME NEW THINGS together and grind clam like ALL chicks do in college. YEP YEP YEP.

  18. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    JBD, says Apollo 18 is tracking well and is predicting a $19 million opening as of now.

  19. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Paul. More proof as to what the hell do I know. I’m guessing its using LAST EXORCISM (same figs) as the model for APOLLO 18. Both horror/found footage/ no stars. We shall see. I had heard a lot of buzz about EXORCISM but 18 not so much. As in not much at all.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4