Weekend Estimates by Klady of the Apes Again
Interesting. According to the estimates, Apes had a significant Saturday bump this weekend after having none last weekend. The Help also had a Saturday bump, which was not so surprising. Does it strike me odd that Fox was handing Nikki Finke Saturday estimates without the West Coast evening numbers, claiming this big Saturday bump? Yes. It is suspicious behavior. But that doesn’t mean that their projection didn’t come true. As I sit here parsing numbers, it’s easy to forget that this weekend push is all about marketing and not about the real numbers. Fox intended to be #1 this weekend with Apes and now they are. How about that? (This is when Nikki chimes in like the old Shake-n-Bake ad and says, with a grin, “And we helped!.”)
People have been known to get upset with me when I wonder aloud about iffy behavior around this estimating game and the “finals” as well. Two things. One, none of it matters to the studio coffers. The amounts of money that come in are not publicly discussed as they come in. Public glimpses into the other revenue streams, especially in real numbers, are rarer than Bigfoot sightings. So whoever ends up seeing the most actual revenue from this weekend is a non-issue in this discussion. Two, smoke indicates fire… or a cigarette or barbecue or whatever. But when things seem sideways at the box office, there is a good chance something a little funny is happening. It’s not bloodsport. If The Help had been $5m bigger or $5m smaller, Fox would not be fighting for the #1 slot and none of this would be an issue. But when there is $400k, by Len’s estimate, between movies on Friday, juices start flowing between very smart and competitive people. And every studio that has had an in-house reputation for never f-ing around with the estimates has ended up sticking its hand in that cookie jar when the heat was on. Three, this almost only ever happens when we’re discussion the Top 3 movies of a given weekend. Sony is not sitting around this weekend deciding whether it wants to push the number of 30 Minutes or Less over the number for The Smurfs‘ third weekend. As #4 and #5, the marketing significance is virtually non-existent. So I truest their estimates in this situation implicitly.
Okay… moving on…
The Help number is good, okay, and disappointing all at once. It’s hard to place it in a summer where that opening lands between Zookeeper and Bridesmaids. If you bought into the chorus of people who started to believe it was going to be a $35m opening, you are disappointed… but probably not admitting it today. If your comparing it to Eat Pray Love, the opening is good, beating Julia and that massive Oprahed book’s movie opening by about $2 million. If you’re looking at a summer movie that has gotten all this attention, the opening is okay. The only August movies that really have played the way that DW is hoping this one plays have been action comedies. Oddly, the movie DW is hoping Help will play like is Tropic Thunder (a DW movie released by Par), which did a surprising 4.3x opening, launched from an August 15 berth.
In my view, the $80m domestic gross is good, but not exciting for the studio. $100 million is exciting. The job was done and done well on opening weekend. Now it’s the push to 100. The film will be financially successful either way. But from haters, lovers, and those in between, the film has been infused with expectations of something more (or less) than that. It’ll be interesting to see.
Five-al Destination got 3D cramps. As best I can tell, it is the first of the 3D sequels to a 3D movie, in a series that started in 3D or not. Soon to come, we’ll see Spy Kids, Saw, Piranha, Ice Age, Avatar, and more follow in these footsteps. (Does the Harry Potter partial 3D thing count? You tell me.) So far, the answer is not good. Not only was this film not close to the last one, the first Final 3D, but it couldn’t keep up with Final #3 by the time the weekend was over. Spy Kids 3D was out there on its own, with paper glasses, back in 2003. And they’re stunting “4D” this time. But is the gimmick now turning the corner on self-defeating? In spite of a fair amount of positive energy in the geek community about this fifth Final D, not only is the box office lower than #3, but the number of tickets sold has to be even further off, given the 3D bump. (Yes, Virginia, there are some sane uses of ticket sales as a measure.) This series relies on its base to show up… and instead of growing the base, it seems to be losing the base, even making a better movie.
What more can one say about 30 Minutes or Less? Felt a bit like a Simon Pegg comedy. Opened pretty much like a Simon Pegg comedy. That doesn’t define the film, just the box office.
Captain America is holding nicely. Probably won’t quite get up to the Thor number, but if it had had the opening weekend slot, the numbers might be reversed. The film is playing pretty ell internationally as well.
Cars 2 is quietly moving to and past $500m worldwide. Not a world-beating number for a Pixar movie, but #2 for the pre-November year and not the negative event – in spite of merchandising – that some made it out to be when it opened soft here.
Nice ongoing numbers for Sony Classics with The Guard and Midnight in Paris. Searchlight is up to $700k on Another Earth. And Senna had a great doc start.
I am disappointed that “Another Earth” would eventually gross much less than “Moon”. (It may proves again that Sony Pictures Classics is better at releasing some kinds of films than many other distributors….. Otherwise, I don’t know what went wrong with “Another Earth”. )
Happy to see that “Senna” opens strongly. However, I am surprised that Universal is releasing “Senna” through Producers Distribution Agency…. Why Universal didn’t let Focus Features to handle the US theatrical release of “Senna”?.
Wow, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS holding well. Has this been discussed? I think it’s Woody’s biggest grosser. Huh.
Mary… have you seen Another Earth? It’s not even close to the same genre as Moon.
“The Help number is good, okay, and disappointing all at once. It’s hard to place it in a summer where that opening lands between Zookeeper and Bridesmaids.”
I’m sorry, but considering its old-timer topic, that is an AMAZING number for a film that could so easily have been just another Hallmark Channel Movie of the Week on television. It isn’t a blockbuster action film or a raucous comedy we’re talking about here. If it only did $20 million, I’d still be impressed because you basically have Emma Stone to open this thing with any semblance of “star power” or an easy promotional draw and that’s it.
Another Earth was closer to PRIMER, an ultra low budget sci-fier that was all about the build up … the effects are all in your mind
I came here to post about Another Earth, too. Very unexpected to see it peaking so soon. I really don’t know how or why anyone would fault Searchlight here or claim they don’t know how to handle these kinds of movies. They are a terrific handler of low budget fare, and even got ADAM well over 2 million in 2009, which I was pretty shocked at.
The trailer and marketing for Another Earth were terrific IMO, not to mention very true to the film itself.
Production values too low? Romance not buy-able as I’ve seen in some critiques? Not sure what could be putting people off of this, I found the movie super compelling, and loved the relationship story even more than the sci fi elements.
Yes David, I had not seen “Another Earth”…. (I’m not in States right now…) Based on the marketing, I thought that “Another Earth” is another niche sci-fier like “Moon”, but with an appealing actress and PG-13 rating. I guess I was really wrong.
Gus, Fox Searchlight couldn’t push another niche sci-fier “Sunshine” to gross more than $4 million, even with that film’s thriller element and considerable star power.
On the other hand, Fox Searchlight paid $3 million to acquire “Another Earth”, so Fox Searchlight clearly thought that they knew how to market “Another Earth” to gross more than $3 million. (In fact, the film would be lucky to gross more than $1.5 million)
Anybody seen THE GUARD? I’m scratching my head wondering what on earth all the fuss is about.
Maybe the core “Final Destination” audience has started to arrive at their final destination.
Mary, yeah, Another Earth isn’t nearly as sci-fi as Moon and having seen both, even if I didn’t know anything about their release patterns or expectations or how much would they were bought for, I’d assume expectations on Moon to be higher, because it’s a lot more visually striking and intriguing while Another Earth — which I did like in part, just wasn’t crazy for — really plays more like a super-small, ultra-low-budget Sundance-y movie. I’m surprised Searchlight picked it up; it feels a lot more like a Magnolia type of movie that gets a cursory theatrical release simultaneously with an On Demand run.
The Pope, I saw The Guard, liked it quite well… I did feel like it got a bit overrated in terms of some of the really ultra-positive reviews, but it’s a solid, funny, engaging, well-shot little movie. Compare to some indies that came out around the same time (Another Earth, Devil’s Double) that had really strong elements but didn’t really work straight through for me, I can see why a lot of people had fun with it… although for my money The Future is the best indie of the summer.
Final Destination is probably just going to start the inevitable horror-series downturn. You can make a profit well into six or seven or eight of these if you keep costs down, but you’re not going to have bumps up continuing indefinitely. The first three were nicely spaced apart (just about three years between each, if I recall correctly) to gather additional video audience. Then #4, while by far the crummiest of the series (practically DTV quality), had the 3-D excitement after another three-year wait. Here we have two-year wait, 3-D being a little old hat, and following the lousiest entry. So falling back within range of the first three is not too surprising. Given horror frontloading, and that the first FD had decent-ish legs as I recall (like the first Saw), this’ll probably wind up the lowest-grossing of the five, right? Probably around $45 million tops? I guess it could inch by Final Destination 2, and it will certainly turn a profit, but yeah, it’s just kind of the natural horror erosion. They actually did a pretty nice job of keeping this series alive for over a decade without turning it into a boom-and-bust punchline like the Saw movies (although probably all of those turned a healthy profit too). The movie itself felt like they were trying to wrap up the series (with some Saw-like continuity, unusual for this lot). Seems unlikely with a horror franchise, but maybe they are admitting that OK, this can’t go on forever and we’ve basically run out of ideas.
I don’t get the fuss about “Another Earth” or “The Guard,” Pope. Both are bad. But I guess “Guard” is sellable as “from some of the people and some relatives of some of the people who brought you the somewhat similar ‘In Bruges.'”
Chris,
“From some of the people and some relatives of some of the people who brought you the somewhat similar ‘In Bruges.’”
That’s the best tag line since LOADED WEAPON… “It’s every movie you’ve ever seen, starring every actor you’ve ever known.”
The FD5 opening is perfectly good and like others I think it being down is partly because of the tepid reaction to the last one. Also, does anyone else think maybe the titles had something to do with the opening differences? I think THE FINAL DESTINATION, with all that conotates, sounds much more appealing than the more generic FINAL DESTINATION 5.
But seeing how successful this series has been over the last ten years really makes me wonder what Platinum Dunes is doing with FRIDAY and NIGHTMARE. The producers have said in interviews that New Line doesn’t want to make the sequels because they’re not profitable enough and they have only so many slots, when the budgets and grosses on the two reboots are quite comprable to the FD series.
Trying to understand, once again, how it works with the perception game. Change Up treated like a huge flop, death of the comedy… while there’s just a shrug for 30 Minutes… which got bad reviews, too. Similar budget level. Not here, but elsewhere the hysterics are increasingly dispiriting.
THE GUARD is the only movie I’ve seen so far this year that made me laugh out loud. A lot. And Gleeson deserves an Oscar.
Well, as I said in my review, Final destination 5 does provide a kind of closure to the franchise. But only if they want to, well, close the franchise. Of course, I thought the same thing about Halloween H20.
New guy… it’s all about the anticipation that journalists and others set up for themselves inside of a bubble of presuming to be able to anticipate such things.
In this case, Ryan Reynolds came into summer seeming like box office heat. It was a misplaced assumption. Also, lots of writers hated the level of raunchiness of the film.
Conversely, people like Jesse Eisenberg, but don’t expect him to be big box office.
It has little to do with any analysis of what is really likely.
Of course, that analysis can be very wrong too. But at least it is based on something other than mood.
If 30 minutes or Less opens in Fall (alas Zombieland) would it open bigger?
I have the feeling The Help is going to be leggy. Whenever the topic of movies came up this weekend, nearly every woman I know stated that they were looking forward to see it.
I feel like 30 Minutes or Less could’ve done better in the spring or fall, with lower expectations and less competition. In fact, while I liked Your Highness more than most people I know (what’s up: http://bit.ly/nuZ6B8), I would have to say that 30 Minutes or Less is more the Pineapple Express companion movie in tone and spirit than Your Highness (from the same filmmaking team) was (no slag on Your Highness; they were going for something similar-yet-different on that one). Of course, Pineapple was a summer release, but Rogen was coming off of Knocked Up and even Franco had lots of Spider-Man visibility. So I feel like 30 Minutes or Less, yeah, in March or April or September, could’ve gotten a few more million out of that opening (when it might not be the seventh R-rated comedy of the season) and maybe held on for longer than I imagine it will (although sometimes these mid-August movies leg out). The lowdown, quick-and-dirty, 80-minutes-and-out vibe of the movie would also be a better fit for a less competitive season, I think.
We’ll see how The Sitter, which looks similar to both this and Pineapple (with the DGG connection), fares in December (?!).
I feel the same way about Cowboys & Aliens, too, actually (though I didn’t like it as much as 30 Minutes or Less). As a lower-expectation alien-invasion movie in March (a la Battle Los Angeles) it would’ve been refreshing even though it doesn’t deliver as hard as I would’ve liked. In July, though, it feels more underwhelming.
30 was doomed. The only press it got was about he real life robber murder he movie is patterned after. Since the real story was tragic this seemed in poor taste, even for Hollywood.
I think the whole being the nth R-rated comedy in however many months or weeks thing is a bogus excuse for what happened to “30 Minutes or Less”. I don’t know anybody who chooses what to see at the movies by thinking, “Aw man, ANOTHER R RATED COMEDY? Sorry, but hell no, I just saw an R rated comedy, give me something PG-13 dammit! Come on!”
Hallick, maybe not in so many words, but I do feel like these R-rated comedies are sold on outrageousness, and if someone has already seen Bad Teacher and Horrible Bosses and Hangover II, maybe that person will be less inclined to jump back in for The Change-Up or 30 Minutes or Less a week or two later, just based on how often the average person actually goes out to a movie. I mean, sure, if another comedy comes out and it’s got great trailers and gets people excited, it won’t really matter that it’s the nth comedy in X number of weeks. But if there are tons of comedy choices out there, and have been for weeks, it seems like that could play a huge part — even if it’s not a conscious decision to not see another R-rated one. The R rating is less about luring people in with a rating than if you had a PG-13 comedy out in August, there would be more of a “well, maybe teenagers will go see it” factor, or maybe older folks will go see it (a la Crazy Stupid Love).
Any limitation, like sixth R rated comedy, can be overcome. But in reality, movie niches can be overserviced.
You write about it, Hallick, like most people choose when not to go to the movies, but most people need to be motivated to go. And the sixth of a kind is less likely motivation than the third.
That said, you are right that if “they” wanted what was being sold, they’d be likely to go to the sixth.
We see this is trend cycles, when the last movie is often the biggest hit, as with Big.
Poland!
You always say the opening weekend is not about the quality of the movie. So what’s with your take on FD5? It’s hard to get everyone to come back after they paid a surcharge for what was universally regarded as the worst movie in the series.
Well,
Surely FD5 is aimed at those with goldfish memories, and so they don’t recall the “quality” of the previous installment.
I generally think a lot of moviegoers put far less thought into how much they like a movie, or even moreso, remembering how much they loved or hated or were indifferent towards a PARTICULAR franchise installment once a series is past two or so.
A $26 million 3-day total for The Help seems pretty damn good to me. That’s a better opening than Eat Pray Love and a per theater average almost identical to The Blind Side (just looked at some of the comps listed at BOM). Don’t see how that is in any way disappointing.
30 Minutes and FD5 probably hurt each other, both going for young male viewers.