Gurus o Gold – Post-TIFF 2011

Rank	Last Chart	Best Picture	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Van Airsdale	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	5	The Descendants	4	3	1	1	2	1	5	1	3	4	1	3	1	13	178
2	1	War Horse	1	1	2	4	3	4	3	4	2	1	7	1	5	13	170
3	3	The Artist	2	7	5	2	1	3	1	2	5	2	2	7	4	13	165
4	6	Midnight In Paris	5	6	3	7	6	10	4	5	10	10	4	5	6	13	127
5	13	Moneyball	11		6	3	13	2	13	3	1	8	6	9	2	12	115
6	11	The Help	12	15	11	5	8	5	8	8	7	6	3	6	3	13	111
7	7	J Edgar	13	13	10	8	4	6	7	11	6	5	9	4	8	13	104
8	4	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	15	2	4	11	9	7	6	12	9	9	8	8	7	13	101
9	8	Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy	3	4	9	10	12	8	9	10	8	7	10	10	9	13	99
10	2	The Ides of March	10	8	8	9	5	12	11	6	11	3	13	2	12	13	98
	10	The Tree Of Life	9	9	12	6	7	15		9	12	11	5	12	10	12	75
	9	The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo	6			15	10	14	2	7	4			11	11	9	64
		Young Adult	8	14			11	11	10	13		15	12			8	34
	12	The Iron Lady		5	13	13	15	9				13		14	15	8	31
	14	We Bought A Zoo	14		7		14		12	14	14	12				7	25
		Like Crazy	7	12												2	13
	15	Carnage		11										15	13	3	9
		Shame				12			14		13					3	9
		A Dangerous Method											14	13	14	3	7
		Hugo			14			13		15`						3	6
One Vote Wonders
		My Week With Marilyn		10												1	6
		Tintin											11			1	5
		Drive				14										1	2
		Contagion										14				1	2
		Jane Eyre											15			1	1
		Warrior									15					1	1
		Salmon Fishing In The Yemen			15											1	1
		Anonymous							15							1	1

Rank	Best Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	VanAirsdale	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	George Clooney The Descendants	5	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	4	1	1	2	1	13	80
2	Jean Dujardin The Artist	2	3	5	3	3	3	1	4	5	3	2	6	3	13	61
3	Brad Pitt Moneyball	3	7	2	2	6	1		2	1	5	4	4	2	12	57
4	Gary Oldman Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	1	2	4	6	7	5	4	5	2	4	6	3	4	13	51
5	Leonardo DiCaprio J. Edgar	6	6	3	5	2	4	2	3	3	2		5	7	12	48
	Michael Fassbender Shame		4		7	5	7	6	6			3	1	5	9	28
	Ryan Gosling The Ides of March			7	4	4	6				7			6	6	14
	Matt Damon We Bought A Zoo			6						6	6				3	6
	Michael Shannon Take Shelter		5						7			7			3	5
	Woody Harrelson Rampart							7					7		2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Paul Giamatti Win Win	4													1	4
	Joseph Gordon-Levitt 50/50											5			1	3
	Jeremy Irvine War Horse							5							1	3
	Brad Pitt The Tree of Life	7													1	1
	Ryan Gosling Drive									7					1	1

Rank	Best Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Van Airsdale	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
1	Meryl Streep The Iron Lady	4	1	1	1	1	1	4	1	3	1	3	1	1	13	81
2	Viola Davis The Help	1	2	3	2	3	3	1	4	1	4	1	3	2	13	74
3	Glenn Close Albert Nobbs		6	2	5	2	2	5	2	2	2	4	2	4	12	58
4	Michelle Williams My Weekend with Marilyn		4	4	4	5	6	6	3	4	5	7	5	3	12	40
5	Charlize Theron Young Adult	2		5	6	4	4	3	5	6	3			5	10	37
	Rooney Mara The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo	5				6		2		5	7	6	7	7	8	19
	Elizabeth Olsen Martha Marcy Mae Marlene		3		3		5		7	7				6	6	17
	Tilda Swinton We Have To Talk About Kevin	7				7	7		6				4		5	9
	Felicity Jones Like Crazy	3	7								6				3	8
	Keira Knightley A Dangerous Method							7					6		2	3
One Vote Wonders
	Mia Wasikowska Jane Eyre											2			1	6
	Rachel Weisz The Deep Blue Sea											5			1	3
	Jodie Foster Carnage		5												1	3
	Michelle Yeoh The Lady			6											1	2
	Marion Cotillard Midnight in Paris	6													1	2
	Scarlett Johansson We Bought A Zoo			7											1	1
	Kirsten Dunst Melancholia				7										1	1

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Posted in Awards Update, Awards Watch, Gurus o' Gold, MCN Originals, Movie City News | 12 Comments »

12 Responses to “Gurus o Gold – Post-TIFF 2011”

movielocke says:

September 27, 2011 at 2:44 am

Love the new system with 15 and seven. out of curiosity Dave, was your decision on lowballing Moneyball cemented after the grosses came out or before? Do you see it as fading ala Contagion? Just not connecting with the academy? I think you’re dead on with Mara in 2, and I think anyone who doesn’t have Viola Davis at 1 is nuts.

would have loved to see the directing, cinematography and editing categories as well.

I’m sort of surprised that Midnight in Paris moved up a couple slots, I thought pundits’ enthusiasm in predicting it was fading as they get distracted by all the ‘newshiny’ coming out of the festivals.

Right now, imo, there are only two locks, The Artist and The Help (yes I know the sexist press hates it when so called women’s movies are recognized as equal, but they need to man up and accept it is a fucking fabulous film). After that I’d say that you have four pretty sure things: The Descendents, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, and Midnight in Paris. I’d put Moneyball right on the edge with those four, not quite there, but nearly there. ask me again in a few months when we know its multiplier and just how many incredibly charming screenings with Brad Pitt there have been.

Myself, I’m waffling back and forth on what I would choose as a number one so far, Moneyball, The Help or Midnight in Paris. They’re all terrific, but only nines, imo, not seen a ten in 2011 yet, at least with fiction films (Hot Coffee and Cave of Forgotten Dreams remain the two best films of the year).

I remain fascinated by the possibility that Scorsese or Spielberg is hiding a Babe-esque four quadrant bonanza of filmic delight that winds up taking the season by storm. It’d be a hell of a lot more fun if the surprise breakout films are from major directors and studios rather than the latest precious indy drama or comedy. I’d like nothing better than for movie-movies Hugo or TinTin to rip spots in the BP lineup away from the medicine-movies like crazy drive of life of shame and carnage. :-p
Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

September 27, 2011 at 6:53 am

If Tilda Swinton is not nominated for We Need to Talk About Kevin, there is no justice in the world.
yancyskancy says:

September 27, 2011 at 1:06 pm

Has anyone seen EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, or are its chances based mostly on Stephen Daldry’s nomination record? If he directed JACK AND JILL, would it have made the cut?
Mark says:

September 27, 2011 at 4:22 pm

How nice it would be to see my generation’s genius, Meryl Streep, win her 3rd Academy Award…
Steven Kaye says:

September 27, 2011 at 8:20 pm

Of course Midnight in Paris – closing in on $55 million domestic – has moved up the ranks. What’s surprising and utterly disgraceful is that it’s not number one.
Michael says:

September 28, 2011 at 4:58 am

I have yet to see some of these entries, but Brad Pitt in Moneyball was fantastic. Sadly there ARE those who would low ball him because he’s Brad Pitt.

Personally, I think Brad Pitt has become a better actor over the last 5 years or so. Interesting and creative film choices (Babel, Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Inglourious Basterds, The Tree of Life, Moneyball)as well as the fact that his famous good looks have dulled just enough with age, that it’s easier now to see the character and the acting rather than the actor himself. I’ve always thought he was a better actor than people gave him credit for, but he just seems so much better now.

Moneyball was fantastic in general, but Brad’s performance was amazing. Throughout the movie I honestly was thinking “how can this performance not get an Oscar nomination, and possibly a win”

I’ll have to really decide once I see some of these other films, but I doubt I’ll have too much of a change of heart.

Oh, and personally I cannot wait to see Rooney Mara. Her performance so far in the trailers looks excellent. There may not be a more gutsy performance all year from any actor or actress.
Tracy says:

September 28, 2011 at 7:19 am

My guts tell me something is wrong with THE IRON LADY. I hear it’s not ready supposedly but It hasn’t gone to a single festival: No Telluride, Toronto, NY and London (rumour on the street is that it is not the surpise film). I am finding this release strategy a little odd to say the least. Yes it stars the divine Meryl Street but surely it could do with a little more exposure?
Gustav says:

September 28, 2011 at 8:35 am

The only reasons why War Horse and Tintin are not competing with each other for the #1 slot is because they haven’t seen yet. I predict a split with both winning Best Picture/Director.
Stephen Holt says:

September 28, 2011 at 9:09 am

Don’t underestimate the power of WOODY. AND his ability to pull nominations for this actors. “Midnight in Paris” could still be playing in theaters and making MORE money, but SPC pulled it out so that it can floor SAG, AMPAS and the guilds with screeners come holiday time. When most people watch the movies. At home. On their DVD players.
movielocke says:

September 28, 2011 at 10:54 am

DP, can you clear up this discrepancy?

There is no rule that states that Five Percent of first place votes is a cut off for eligibility. Rather, the rule states a film requires five percent of the total vote to be eligible for the BP nomination.

No where in the official rules does it mention first place votes. Additionally, the Rules for nominations suggest there is no special tabulation of Best Picture nominees, all nominees are done by preferential ballot, as they have always been tabulated.

BP Rule: http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule17.html
“2. The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.”

Nomination rules:
http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule05.html
“5. In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the preferential or weighted average system. Votes for achievements in motion pictures not on the Reminder List will not be counted in the nominations balloting. Tabulation of final ballots shall be according to the plurality system. No “write-in” votes shall be counted on the final ballot.

6. Not more than five nominations shall be made for each award, except for the Best Picture award, which shall have not more than ten nor fewer than five nominations.”

Original Press Release announcing rule change:
http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2011/20110614a.html
“After much analysis by Academy officials, it was determined that 5 percent of first place votes should be the minimum in order to receive a nomination, resulting in a slate of anywhere from 5 to 10 movies.”

If the official rules don’t consider first place to be a qualifier then it is not a qualifier, despite what a press release says, can someone please contact the academy and clear up what’s going on with the rule change?
MichaelH says:

September 29, 2011 at 1:33 pm

I saw some long scenes of ‘Albert Hobbs’ and I love love love Glenn Close, but I’m just not feeling it. Maybe back in 1979, but not today.
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