20 Weeks To Oscar (20W2O) Charts: October 23, 2011
Monday, 11:30a – Wow… that was ugly! My apologies. No idea how I managed to remove two of the most likely nominees – The Artist and The Help – from this chart… but I did. My apologies to all.
10/23/11 Charts
Picture | Actor | Supporting Actor | Actress | Supporting Actress
|
BEST
PICTURE |
||||
|
Date
|
Picture
|
Studio
|
Director
|
Stars |
| The Nomination Frontrunners (seen) |
||||
|
Open
|
Midnight in Paris |
SPC
|
Allen
|
Wilson
|
| Nov 23 | The Artist |
TWC
|
Hazanavicius
|
Bejo
Dujardin |
| Nov 18 |
The Descendants |
FxSrch
|
Payne
|
Clooney
Woodley |
| The Mystery Movies |
||||
| Dec 28 |
War Horse |
DW/Dis
|
Spielberg
|
IrvineArestrup
|
|
Nov 11
|
J Edgar |
WB
|
Eastwood
|
DiCaprio
Dench Hammer |
|
Dec 21
|
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo |
Sony
|
Fincher
|
Mara Craig |
|
Dec 25
|
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close |
WB
|
Daldry
|
Bullock |
| Dec 23 |
We Bought A Zoo |
Fox
|
Crowe
|
Johansson
Damon Fanning |
|
Dec 16
|
The Iron Lady |
TWC
|
Lloyd
|
Streep
|
| The Upper Middle Class |
||||
| Open | The Help |
DW/Dis
|
Taylor
|
Davis Spencer Chastain Howard |
|
Dec 9
|
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
Focus
|
Alfredson
|
Oldman
|
|
Dec 2
|
Shame |
FxSrch
|
McQueen
|
Mulligan
Fassbender |
|
Dec 9
|
Young Adult |
Par
|
Reitman
|
Theron
Oswalt |
|
Open
|
The Tree of Life |
FxSrch
|
Malick
|
Pitt
Chastain |
|
Open
|
Moneyball |
Sony
|
Miller
|
Pitt Hill |
|
Open
|
The Ides of March |
Sony
|
Clooney
|
Gosling |
| The Longshots |
||||
|
Nov 23
|
A Dangerous Method |
SPC
|
Cronenberg
|
Knightley Mortensen Fassbender |
|
Dec 23
|
Albert Nobbs |
Road
|
Garcia
|
Close
McTeer |
|
Dec 23
|
Tintin |
Par/DW
|
Spielberg
|
–
|
|
Nov 23
|
Hugo |
Par
|
Scorsese
|
–
|
|
Open
|
Take Shelter |
SPC
|
Nichols
|
Shannon
Chastain |
|
Dec 2
|
The Lady |
Cohen
|
Besson
|
Yeoh
|
|
Oct 28
|
Anonymous |
Sony
|
Emmerich
|
Ifans
Redgrave |
|
Nov 18
|
Carnage |
SPC
|
Polanski
|
Winslet
|
|
unknown
|
Rampart |
Millenium
|
Moverman
|
Harrelson
|
1)So you’re sticking to your guns that The Help will get no love from the academy, not even a nomination?
2) Is the buzz on The Descendants that good? The trailer seems somewhat lightweight to me. Kind of the same for We Bought a Zoo as well.
Bulldog68,
I have always found the trailers to Alexander Payne’s movies are just as you say, “lightweight.” The trailers always undersell the product. So, I have faith that The Descendents will deliver.
David,
Yes, the omission of The Help for Best Picture was just an oversight.
So…what about “The Artist??”
Saw Tin-Tin this morning and will happily revise my prediction that War Horse will be Spielberg’s first billion dollar picture (inflation adjusted fetishists should take a ticket and go to the complaints department).
Tin-Tin is great fun and I think it will be huge. So huge, it could hit the big B.
The elephant in the room is the exact number of nominees.
In a 10 pic race, “The Help” is a lock.
Ditto “The Tree of Life” and “Moneyball.”
“Shame” and a few others on the list (“Anonymous,” “The Lady,” “Carnage,” “Albert Nobbs”) seem unlikely, regardless of how many films make the final cut.
Vis-a-vis Bill: “The Artist” has a better shot than any of them.
I’m puzzled as to why so many people have abandoned “War Horse” sight unseen (a movie that seems as designed for awards recognition as the Daldry title) and are putting their eggs in “Tintin”‘s basket.
Now that I’ve seen it, I can’t imagine there will be a lot of love for “Young Adult” other than Theron.
Interesting predictions. I also think The Help will sneak in there. Tree of Life doesn’t have a shot. Moneyball I feel will go the way of the Town, where it feels like it should make the top ten but falls short. Still lots of movies left to see.
I’m very jealous of you folks that have seen Tin Tin already.
No “Tin” screenings in my market yet, but I’m having a hard time believing a “performance-capture” animated film can make the cut.
Since Pixar had an off year, it should have no trouble winning in the Best Animated Feature category, though. Especially if it’s as great as most people seem to think. And I sincerely hope that it is.
“Moneyball” was one of the best reviewed movies of the year, did more than respectable b.o. and stars Academy-friendly Pitt in one of his most acclaimed perfs ever. I don’t see how it can miss out on one of the slots.
“TOL” may have peaked early, but Malick still has plenty of supporters.
I wouldn’t rule it out, particularly in a 10-nominee field.
Off the top of my head, I can only think of the LOTR trilogy and AVATAR as the only big genre, adventure/fantasy movies to make the cut in recent years, which I take to mean that if TIN TIN is some kind of a sensation it could make the cut. WAR HORSE, in contrast, looks pretty, well, Oscar-y.
MoCap still seems to piss off a lot of old-school animators, which is TINTIN’s hurdle in that category. I remember a whole bunch of editorials about why Beowulf wasn’t true animation.
I really don’t see the point of Tintin in any format other than the comics, which are perfect as is stylistically, but sounds like the movie’s good at least.
…and while “Descendants” looks pretty solid as a nominee (no matter the size of the playing field), I wouldn’t put “MIP” down as a lock just yet. Some might consider it too “lightweight,” and not deserving of a BP nomination in a five-movies-only race. A screenplay nomination could be its consolation prize. But I hope that it squeaks in because “MIP” was one of the most purely pleasurable films of the year.
on the tech side of things, Score has to be the most locked up easy to predict category for four of the five nominees ever. John Williams is obviously getting two nominations. There is no way the Artist isn’t taking a nom (and likely win), and Reznor/Ross seem like a can’t miss combo after last year’s win. So the open question is, who’s the unlucky fifth nominee that doesn’t have a shot at winning when up against those four gorillas?
There’s not much (any?) unreleased that I’ve seen in terms of Oscar bait, but I will say, completely based on gut and what I’ve read and similar situations in the past, I don’t think Michael Shannon or even Fassbender have a better shot at a spot than Pitt for Best Actor. I thought Pitt wouldn’t make it in for Benjamin Button because it was such a passive role with relatively subtle acting, but if that made it in, I don’t know, Moneyball seems like an easier get for him.
Having just seen Take Shelter this weekend, I’m not seeing Shannon going far for it any more than I’m seeing Martha Marcy Elizabeth Olsen getting in for that movie. The latter is possible, I suppose, but both characters are written in a way that makes their performances a little one-note, and heavy on the mental illness, and not a flashy struggling-to-overcome-mental-problems Shiny McShine sort of way.
Assuming Clooney, Pitt, and Dujardin are set, I’d say that Oldman and DiCaprio would be the next most likely if their movies are decent, and while I didn’t think the J. Edgar trailer was as lame as some people seemed to, it seems more likely that Oldman can get in based on strength of movie (though the voters must like DiCaprio, getting him in for freaking Blood Diamond) (also, that would be a crazy star-studded category if Clooney, Pitt, and DiCaprio all faced off).
Maybe Fassbender can jump in if one of those two falters. Or Craig maybe? He seems likely to be overshadowed by Mara, though.
I posted it at the top of the page… but repeating… the absence of The Artist (which I would say is currently the favorite to win) and The Help was an editing mistake. A shockingly stupid one.
It seems unlikely, but do you think that 50/50 has any chance of a nomination. I finally got around to seeing it and it shot up to my favorite film of the year.
Man I’m dying to see The Artist. That and The Descendants cannot get here sooner.
I’d love to see Saiorse Ronan nominated for Hanna. That’s been the most enjoyable film of the year for me.
Oh nothin’, just saw The Avengers today…
Like, the way some of you guys oh-so-casually (but actually LOOK AT ME) drop that you’ve “just seen” some three-month-off top-secret movie is the most annoying thing since Melanie Hutsell.
LexG: Hey, did I tell you about my threesome with Kristen Stewart and Dakota Fanning?
TP, I just watched HANNA for the second time last week, and I really love that movie too. It’s pure awesome style but also has plenty of heart and emotion. I don’t know if it’s enough of an Oscar movie to get a nod for that performance (as good as it is) though, considering that even Uma Thurman didn’t get a nomination for either KILL BILL.
Sorry to offend you by having seen far-off movies, Les. Just seems like a comment about an upcoming movie is worth more if, you know, I’ve actually seen it.
@jesse
I totally disagree about Shannon playing one note in Take Shelter. I think people are bringing the baggage of his other roles when they see that movie. If you look at the actual performance, he does a brilliant job of portraying the character’s normalcy, followed by doubt of his own sanity, followed by the scene at the Lion’s Club dinner when his doubt falls away and is replaced by something entirely new. It’s an astonishing performance in my favorite movie of the year so far.
Joe: Do you use the same flavor/brand of barbecue sauce for all your ladies, or is it more like pairing a wine with food?
Rob, I guess it’s not even that I think Shannon is one-note in the movie; that was a bad way of putting it on my part. It’s more that most of what his character does is react to this all-consuming obsession in a crazy/scared way. I’m sure you can say that about a lot of characters/performances, but I can see Oscar voters not finding much to grasp onto there. Guy is losing his shit. I just don’t see a lot of descent-into-madness performances getting much awards love, no matter how good they are. And Shannon is reliably excellent. I guess I should say it’s more that the movie feels a little one-note (or two-or-three-note) moreso than Shannon. I just don’t think it’s his time yet, good as he is.
Also, I’m sort of impressed but also puzzled that Take Shelter would be your favorite movie of the year. It’s an interesting one, to be sure, but that and Martha Marcy Etc. are exactly the type of movies that I admire and find interesting while also thinking, wow, so some people LOVE this movie? How? I mean, the craft and the performances, yes. Very well-wrought, nicely shot, etc. But I guess when I talk about LOVING a movie, there’s an element of wanting to watch it again (even if, say, Tree of Life is not something I’m going to pop in on a Sunday afternoon for fun). I could maybe look at certain scenes from Take Shelter or MMMM again, but the prospect of actually sitting through them a second time, I don’t know, it feels like there wouldn’t be enough there to sustain it, which makes the hardcore LOVE some of them are getting feel like nearly as much of an exercise as the movies themselves (and of course I don’t think that’s the case, that people don’t “really” love them; just that it’s hard for me to understand).
I understand that Take Shelter accomplishes its goals more solidly than, say, Super 8, to pick a movie I loved and can admit has some story flaws. But what do you LOVE about it? Would you want to watch it again? And why?
I’m not trying to be a dick — I’m honestly curious.
@Jesse
That’s a reasonable question. I thought it was beautifully crafted, with amazing individual shots that let you pay attention to what’s in the frame. I thought Chastain’s character and performance felt surprising and real, far more so than The Wife almost ever is.
I loved its portrayal of a family that isn’t poor, exactly, but needs its prescription co-pays to be a little cheaper, watches as the meter at the gas pump keeps rising, will forgo urgent psychiatric care if it requires driving all the way to Columbus.
This is a movie about how difficult it is to maintain what we used to think of as the baselines for happiness: house, job, family. You can look at it as the story of a man succumbing to mental illness or as a metaphor for the dread that arises from the knowledge that whatever happiness we have now will one day be undone.
Yancy: Definitely like wine.
http://www.cattlemensfoodservice.com/bbq-sauce-flavors/index.php
movielocke, I’m hoping that fifth slot is filled by Alexandre Desplat. He’s never won, and his Harry Potter score was very good.
Palmtree,
For me, Desplat’s best score is still BIRTH. I have it in the car and is one of my favorites for long, solo drives.
Do the Crash Test Dummies sing the closing-credit son of MMMM?
I just got out of Take Shelter and I’m with Rob. Most notably, Jessica Chastain took what is indeed usually a stock type (the worried/supportive wife) and made her into a full-blown character (hers arguably is the harder role, and the one likely to be overlooked at year’s-end because it’s not as flashy). It helps that the screenplay actually shows this family, especially this couple, interacting and having realistic conversations, even cracking a joke or two. And Chastain is given moments of her own that are not explicitly connected with dealing with her husband. Yes, Michael Shannon’s performance is dynamite and should receive notices, but what makes the movie work as well as it does is how real it feels in terms of its portrait of a mostly happy lower-middle class family unit. Long story short, the hype is real.
Scott (or anyone else) – do you know where I can buy a copy of Flimmaker Magazine in print? I’m in east LA (Los Feliz/Silverlake) and would like to get a copy of the fall issue.
OK, those are good arguments in favor of Take Shelter. And I did like it, was glad I saw it. Chastain is aces. She really can’t seem to do wrong! And I love Shannon. It’s just not a movie I see myself revisiting much in the future. I feel that way about a lot of indie directors: a lot of them are obviously very brainy and talented, but not many of them really pop in a way that makes me dying to see their next movie. I mean, if the next movie by the Take Shelter guy looks way different, I’ll be excited (maybe not so much about his writing, which I felt had some stilted dialogue in Shelter)… but in the last five or six years, I’ve seen fewer indies by people like Rian Johnson and Brick where I’m like, holy shit did I LOVE that movie and I’m instantly unbelievably excited to see the next one as I was with Brothers Bloom.
Maybe I’m just shallow, because I know a lot of people find Johnson too precious, especially after Brothers Bloom. And I do like a good cerebral indie thriller. I just like to see guys (and gals) who delight me a little more, the way that a Scorsese movie can be a delight even if it’s heavy or intense subject matter.
That’s not a fault with Take Shelter, of course. Just something I’ve noticed about a lot of the better indie pictures lately.
Gus, Book Soup’s usually a pretty good bet if it hasn’t sold out.
Thanks Ray. I’ll check it out.
As for take shelter, I was anticipating it something awful, even rewatched shotgun stories in advance to kind of prime myself, but I wasn’t taken with it much at the end of the day. The photography is really quite underwhelming IMO and the ending felt much more like a narrative screw-you than anything meaningful. I was impressed with some of Nichols’ biggest improvements, especially his camerawork in the scare scenes, but in general I found there to be a lot of stilted, pat dialogue, and fairly weak performances from the side characters. I was surprised to have this take in general but there you have it.
I think the ending is a “screw-you” only if you read the storm literally. The storm is what’s coming for all of us, sooner or later.
David, you think there’s no chance for POTTER 7.2 as a kind of good-will-end-of-the-fabulous-run-sorry-we-ignored-you-before gesture?
I don’t see TREE making the final cut; too slow and weird for the still-older voting members. I can see Malick getting a Director nom, though, much like Lynch did for BLUE VELVET, Egoyan for SWEET HEREAFTER, et al.
BREAKING DAWN is gonna pull a Return of the King.
Mark my words. Condon’s an Oscar favorite.
YEAR OF THE STEW finally?
It oughta be Year of the Gleeson, but we all know it’s not gonna happen.
The Artist is a long-shot to be nominated for Best Picture, regardless of how good it might be, because Hollywood rarely nominates movies about the movies for their biggest prize. The last movie that really had anything to do with movies to be nominated for Best Picture was Lenny back in 1974. (And for crying out loud, the Academy nominated fucking Scent of a Woman over The Player in 1992!)
Now, don’t get me wrong. The Artist is the #1 movie I am looking forward to seeing this fall and winter, and I’ve been programming the trailer in front of every movie I can in my multiplex, about an hour outside of San Francisco, to help build WOM. I want to believe the hype, and I want it to succeed. But Oscar-wise, I only see nods for Cinematography, Score and maybe Original Screenplay.
Not sure what LENNY had to do with the movies, but Fosse’s ALL THAT JAZZ, which got a Best Picture nomination five years later, did include scenes about the making and editing of the protagonist’s LENNY-type film.
If the Academy loves the movie as much as everyone else seems to, I can’t imagine they’ll penalize it for being about the industry, especially since it’s set in the silent era. THE PLAYER may have hit a bit close to home.
Well, if you go back far enough, you’ll find one: Sunset Blvd.
Yancy, you are correct. I was mixing up All That Jazz and Lenny. But still, over thirty years since a movie that had anything to do with movies, even tangentially, was nominated.
But seriously… look at the most highly considered movies directly or tangentially about movies:
Adaptation: 3 Acting nods, including a win, and a screenplay nod… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
The Bad and the Beautiful: 5 Oscar wins, a nod for Kirk Douglas… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
Barton Fink.: 3 nods… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
Boogie Nights: Two acting nods, a screenplay nod… and jack shit for a Best Picture nod
Day for Night: Best Foreign Language win, three additional nods, including two for Maître Truffaut… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
8 1/2: Two Oscar wins, three additional nods, including two for Maestro Fellini… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
Ed Wood: Two Oscar wins… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
The Player: Already mentioned. Jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
Singin’ in the Rain: Two nods… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
A Star is Born (1954): Six nods… and jack shit for a Best Picture nomination
Stardust Memories: A complete shutout.
Sunset Blvd.: FINALLY! A movie about the movies with a Best Picture nomination.
Even if you throw in The Last Picture Show, that’s maybe three Best Picture nominations (All That Jazz, Last Picture Show, Sunset Blvd.) in the past sixty years.
Maybe, this year, Hugo?
Let’s reconsider the idea here… how many quality movies about movies have been MADE in the last 30 years?
Anyone have an example other than The Player that missed?
Of Edward’s list in the last 30 years, it’s Stardust Memories, Barton Fink, Adaptation, Ed Wood, and The Player.
Seriously… much as I love some of those movies… they were not serious Oscar contenders. 3 of them were perceived as box office flops.
The Artist is many unique things. Being about movies is not a problem for the film at all.
Midnight in Paris is a lock. Good to see it on top. And it just had a great debut weekend here in Australia.
What Just Happened? was a quality movie about movies (ie, it has K-Stew and is directed by awesome Barry Levinson, but otherwise I remember nothing about it…)
What Just Happened? was a fun watch at home on a rainy night. For me the highlight was the awesome Michael Wincott as the crazy director fighting with the studio about his movie’s ending.
Now that more folks are seeing it, probably time to remove “Anonymous” from the possibilities.
Oh, and this is one of those charts with so much info that little things are bound to slip through but, FTR, “Hugo” is November 23, not December 23.
@Gus
The magazine store right next to the bourgeois pig in franklin village carries filmmaker.
Yes, Chris… things definitely slip through on the first charts. Yours is the second date correction. Tinker, Tailor was also misdated, now fixed.