By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report, October 23, 2011

The New Paranormal

If there was ever a whiff of doubt about spooks or horror franchises, the bow of Paranormal Activity 3 exorcised skeptics with an estimated $53.5 million that dominated weekend ticket sales. The session also featured two other national newcomers. The umpteenth The Three Musketeers (in 3D!) got fenced into fourth spot with $8.7 million while Johnny English Reborn bowed to an Oh Oh $3.8 million. The latter two films have fared considerably better overseas where they’ve respectively grossed $55 million and $90 million.

Also in wide release was the athletic, inspirational The Mighty Macs that failed to replicate hoops glory cinematically with $802,000 at 975 multicourts. Considerably more upbeat was the limited opening of too big to fail Margin Call with $550,000 at 56 trading posts and the exclusive bow of the chilling Martha Marcy May Marlene scared up $136,000 at four sites. Also of note was the non-fiction Being Elmo that pulled the strings to a tuneful $22,700 from a Manhattan solo.

Overall weekend revenues ballooned 42% to roughly $125 million but remained 5% below last year’s pace. In 2010 the debut of Paranormal Activity 2 ascended to $40.7 million followed by holdovers Jackass 3D and Red with respective box office of $21.3 million and $15 million.

Paranormal Activity 3 _ the sequel spawned by a film that almost went direct to disc _ got off to a fast start with Thursday sneaks that spawned $8 million. Industry tracking had predicted an opening slightly better than PA2 in the low to mid-$40 million range. The audience (as with virtually all 2011 movies) got older with 47% aged 25 and older as compared 40% for the prior incarnation and women held a slight majority with a 54% total. With so many horror franchises fading out, Paranormal may be the last stand for a crowd that appears to be evaporating from the movie going scene.

Despite the addition of epees in your eyeball the response to the latest The Three Musketeers was blasé. Pundits expected North American box office in the $11 million to $13 million range but its audience appeared to prefer things that went bump in the night to rapiers.

Also registering below expectation was Johnny English Reborn that was tracking albeit low in the $4 million to $6 million vicinity. Star Rowan Atkinson remains a major international star largely due to the success of Mr. Bean and its offspring. However, he recently told an interviewer that he was now too old to play his signature character to much outcry from fans.

The audience shift of 2011 has certainly improved the commercial prospects of the likes of The Way and Take Shelter, not to mention The Help. Add to that list Margin Call that arrived virtually out of left field. Despite positive (though less than enthusiastic) response from screenings at Sundance and Berlin, the expectations were modest for yet another tale of Wall Street greed and amorality. However, the picture may have benefited from recent global sit ins against the traders and reviews that rightfully accentuated its positives.

Weekend (estimates) October 21 – 23, 2011
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Paranormal Activity 3 Par 53.5 (16,100) NEW 3321 53.5
Real Steel BV 11.1 (3,250) -32% 3412 67
Footloose Par 10.8 (3,030) -31% 3555 30.8
The Three Musketeers Summit 8.7 (2,880) NEW 3017 8.7
The Ides of March Sony/Alliance 4.9 (2,390) -31% 2042 29.2
Dolphin Tale WB 4.2 (1,490) -32% 2828 64.4
Moneyball Sony 4.1 (1,730) -25% 2353 63.7
Johnny English Reborn Uni 3.8 (2,430) NEW 1552 3.8
The Thing Uni 3.1 (1,040) -63% 2995 14.1
50/50 Summit 2,8 (1,460 -34% 1932 28.8
Courageous Sony/Tricord 2.5 (2,120) -23% 1195 25
The Big Year Fox 1.7 (780) -49% 2150 6
The Lion King 3D BV 1.2 (1,140) -55% 1091 92.6
Dream House Uni/eOne 1.2 (990) -51% 1224 20.3
Contagion WB .87 (960) -52% 901 73.5
The Mighty Macs Quaker .80 (820) NEW 975 0.8
The Help BV .72 (930) -39% 776 166.2
Abduction Lions Gate .62 (820) -57% 753 26.8
Drive FilmDistrict .59 (1,610) -47% 367 33.2
Margin Call Roadside Attractions .55 (9,880) NEW 56 0.55
The Way PDA .47 (1,650) 86% 283 1
Killer Elite Open Road .39 (520) -62% 751 24.6
What’s Your Number Fox .27 (790) -76% 343 13.7
The Skin I Live In Sony Classics .25 (12,050) 13% 21 0.56
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox .22 (900) -6% 249 176.5
Apes
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $117.75
% Change (Last Year) -5%
% Change (Last Week) 42%
Also debuting/expanding
Take Shelter Sony Classics .20 (3,590) 70% 55 0.52
Martha Marcy May Marlene Fox Searchlight .14 (34,080) 4 0.14
Snowmen Cinedigm 73,300 (3,860) 19 0.07
Decharge Remster 32,500 (1,630) 20 0.03
Le Havre Janus 26,600 (4,430) 6 0.03
Being Elmo Submarine 22,700 (22,700) 1 0.02
Oranges and Sunshine Cohen Media 18,400 (4,600) 4 0.02
Revenge of the Electric Car Area 23a 18,100 (6,030) 3 0.02
The Last Ride Category One 15,700 (2,240) 7 0.02
Joy Road Blazar Media 14,900 (1,850) 8 0.01
Norman Camelot 10,600 (1,060) 10 0.01
L’Assaut Seville 8.800 (1,100) 8 0.01
Down the Road Again Triptych 7,200 (1,800) 4 0.01
Paul Goodman Changed My Life Zeitgeist 5,600 (5,600) 1 0.01
Elevate Variance 4,100 (4,100) 1 0.01
Balls to the Wall Rocky Mountain 3,200 (320) 10 0.01
Klitschko Corinth 2,800 (700) 4 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Oct. 20, 2011)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (24) 1499.4 18.20%
Paramount (16) 1452.9 17.70%
Buena Vista (15) 1076.6 13.10%
Sony (25) 1056.1 12.80%
Universal (16) 946.2 11.50%
20th Century Fox (15) 785.4 9.60%
Weinstein Co. (12) 281.3 3.40%
Lions Gate (15) 182.7 2.20%
Relativity (7) 144.6 1.80%
Focus (7) 123.3 1.50%
Film District (3) 110.5 1.30%
Fox Searchlight (10) 107.7 1.30%
Summit (7) 95.9 1.20%
Sony Classics (16) 80.5 1.00%
CBS (3) 57.5 0.70%
Other * (287) 222.1 2.70%
8222.7 100.00%
* none greater than 0.35%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 – Oct. 20, 2011) *
Title Distributor Box Office
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, Part 2 WB 380,350,637
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Par 352,424,682
The Hangover 2 WB 254,464,305
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV 241,071,802
Fast Five Uni 209,999,424
Cars 2 BV 190,858,696
Thor Par 181,066,624
Captain America: The First Avenger Par 176,262,652
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox 175,394,199
Bridesmaids Uni 169,185,860
The Help BV 165,476,836
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par 165,347,740
X-Men: First Class Fox 146,408,305
Rio Fox 143,619,809
The Smurfs Sony 140,156,041
Super 8 Par 127,021,426
Rango Par 123,481,694
The King’s Speech * Weinstein Co. 121,123,415
Horrible Bosses WB 117,506,259
Green Lantern WB 116,601,172
* does not include 2010 box office
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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4