Weekend Estimates by Record-Breaking Klady
There is almost nothing to discuss today that’s different than the conversation based on Friday numbers.
Nikki Finke would be funny if she weren’t so widely read on box office (thanks, Matt). It takes a very brief look at the all-time October chart to find that 4 of the top 5 October opening weekends in history were for #3s in series… so not ready to call Paranormal 3 a game changer (PA, Jackass, Scary Movie, and the only High School Musical released in theaters.. #3) and a #3 that was a top opener. Moreover, the notion that other studios will use this as a model is laughably stupid… not that some studios are willing to do laughably stupid things. We did go through a cycle of very successful Japanese horror remakes that were very popular with women. Screen Gems, really, was built on this. But “let’s make a cheap horror film and it will make us rich” is like “let’s make a four-quadrant film that will make a billion dollars” or “let’s make an Oscar winner!” These are not business models. These are ideals which are completely dependent on execution and a lot of luck.
Anyway…
The only other wide-release story of this weekend is more excellent holds. Every one of the top 5 holdovers were estimated to drop between 32% and 25%.
On the indie side, Sony Classics’ fifth Almodovar release this decade, The Skin I Live In, is expanding faster than any of the others, out on 21 screens this weekend. The highest 2nd weekend count before was 5 screens. Of Pedro’s releases this millennium, only Volver had better expansion numbers ($512k when it went to 30 screens in its 4th weekend). It will be interesting to see if Sony Classics can “do the Woody” for Pedro, breaking out of what has become a $5m a film rut (a very nice rut for a foreign language director) and get closer to $10 million domestic on this very entertaining film.
Margin Call had a good outing too, averaging almost $10k-per on 56 screens. That’s better than the Winter’s Bone launch. Some great, passionate notices… but how narrow is the interest in the subject. So… we’ll see.
As I wrote yesterday, very solid, but not sensational numbers on Martha Marcy May Marlene on 4 screens. And a nice 1-screen launch for Being Elmo, basically self-distributed by Submarine. After doing a worldwide deal for Hanway to pursue international distribution, apparently, the right deal never hit the table for this crowd-pleasing doc about the rise of the man behind Elmo, from the wrong side of the tracks in Baltimore to being a worldwide star and television producer. This film really deserves more than an Oscar qualifying run. Fingers crossed for it.
The reason why PA3 did so good is because it was the consensus film of its type to see during the period. Not downplaying its success at all, it’s just a rare October where there is very little competition.
I would say that the niche it plays to has grown since Saw and that this number is reflective of all the money that’s always waiting for this kind of film when there is a positive feeling about the franchise.
The real question is, can it hit $100m and if so, how much can it make over $100m.
Regardless, Paranormal Activity 4, 5 & 6 are no brainers.
“Regardless, Paranormal Activity 4, 5 & 6 are no brainers.”
It’s like Saw only it costs so much less to make. they’ll make less and less each outing, but they’re bringing so much money back, how do you not just keep churning in out until you run it into the ground?
It’s the most obvious and sound business decision in entertainment. It’s become one of those horror franchises that defines the era.
In the 1980’s you had Nightmare on Elm Street and Friday the 13th. The 1990’s had Scream. The 2000’s had Saw and now Paranormal Activity into the ’10’s.
You know what i keep wondering. Did Blair Witch miss a major opportunity? If they’d done another ‘found footage’ Blair Witch instead of trying to make a regular horror film, could Blair Witch have been a franchise the size and scope of Paranormal Activity?
That’s a great point, anghus. Has there been a bigger horror hit that failed to follow up as spectacularly as “Blair Witch” did?
There was little to see this wekend I had no interest in most of what is playing.
Seems pretty clear in retrospect that the BWP sequel was a big time missed opportunity, but I remember that my feeling at the time was that so much of the “is it real” energy had been spent. It seemed to me that trying to simply repeat that sense of reality was impossible and from a business standpoint pretty foolish. Turns out that was completely wrong, and that yeah, people don’t care that movies are, you know, made up.
Artisan was too busy trying to screw Sanchez, et al, out of their money that they forgot that they’d only bought the movie, not made it.
Saw Margin Call last night in Berkeley. Surprised it was sold out. Not an empty seat in the house when I expected to be one of 10 people in the theater. The movie is quite good, though much subtler than I expected. It humanizes the monsters in a way. The words “We didn’t have a choice” are repeated so often it becomes a running joke. And yet, you almost see how it probably felt that way to the players involved. Spacey, whom I’ve ALWAYS thought was overrated, was quite good underplaying all the way through. And Tucci and Demi Moore had some really nice moments. Irons, Bettany, Quinto–all of the pretty much nail it. Even Penn Badgley, as a scared little doucheboy, acquits himself just fine. If the crowd I saw it with is any indication, there’s room for this movie to really take off.
I can name over a dozen part 3s that opened bigger than part 2. Anyway, despite the mass-reportage, PA3 is the 2nd biggest horror debut. Forget not Hannibal, which opened with $58 million back in Feb 2001.
http://youtu.be/VV4H70wKpdo
This is for you, Joe:
“C&A” finally crossed the $100-million threshold this weekend.
Fairy tales can come true when you’re young at heart.
Aside from the painfully obvious way they bent over backwards to insure receiving a “G” rating (not a single “damn” or “hell” spoken anywhere; and not even a “period”–i.e., 1972-era–smoker), “The Mighty Macs” is a pleasant enough little basic cable flick with nice work from Gugino, Shelton and Burstyn.
Not sure why/how it merited a theatrical release, though.
Re: Paranormal 3.
For me the whole “found footage” thing is not the reason why the PA series continues to win. I have never met one person who thinks/thought/was told it was “real”. Rather I think it is the execution of the concept that makes it so compulsive. Its demographic was perfectly identified and the fact that the actors are not stars makes it that much more mundane (ie., “real”) and that it could have been filmed in your own home makes it that much more visceral. The age of the cast and their economic status is crucial. Twenty-something newly-weds in their first home experiencing bumps in the night is but an augmentation of the anxieties (My god, I’m married now what the f*** am I doing?) all newly-weds go through (And the sequel has a baby). Also the fear that your home may be a hell-hole (financially) is something that is neatly sublimated here.
For me what makes PA work is what the audience brings with them into the theater. PA subliminally reflects back to them their own anxieties.
PA does this in a way that is far more culturally/socially reflective than TBWP because it is suburban twenty-something newly-weds as opposed to lame, film nerds out in the woods. It was a once off phenomenon while PA has a finger on some sort of pulse.
PA3 should end up as the highest grossing of the 3 fairly easily…right? Saw 3’s opening weekend was 41.3% of the final gross, and PA2’s opening weekend made up 48%. I don’t see this doing much worse than either of those, especially since there’s no real horror competition over Halloween weekend.
Pope, I think you’re onto something.
PA3 was good, but the most paranormal thing I saw this weekend is the Dolphins lose a 15-0 lead over Tim Tebow with 3 minutes left. Horrifying (I know Dave is a fellow Fin fan so that;s why I bring it up). I suspect Tony Sparano disappears too by dawn.
Pope has a huge point here. Nothing is as under-appreciated as the truthful human element and location choice in box office potential.
By “human element” I am referring to the analog to true human experiences and the fears or desires that come along with them.
Some companies, like Legendary or Alcon, draw out a dramatic thesis for every project they develop and won’t continue with a project unless they feel that thesis is crystal clear and fundamental to basic human experience for a large part of the intended fan base. I think it’s the hardest thing to see in analyzing these movies but I think it’s what people ultimately respond to in well told stories.
I also think the closer you can get that response to the reptile brain and the fight or flight response every person has in them, the more broadly accessible those movies can be, which I think is at the root of horror’s basic popularity (and in cerebral and/or outsider-narrative films’ box office challenges).
I’m wondering if The Pope has actually seen the movie, in a movie theatre, with regular folk. Because, at least at my theatre, his scenario maybe describes, at best, 10% of the audience.
Movieman: It’s my understanding that Mighty Macs got a wider theatrical play than originally intended because of the recent success of Courageous. Truly, the Lord works in mysterious ways.
“Mine is not to reason why, mine is but to do and die.”
Yeah, 90% of Paranormal’s success boils down to:
Latinos believe in the supernatural. That and they go to see it en masse as a machismo thing to show how tough they are. The PA audience is at LEAST 85% Hispanic. Pope’s NEW HOME OWNER YUPPIES analysis doesn’t hold water at all… Go see it in the Valley and see how many upscale home owners are in the crowd.
Edward,
Yes, I saw the first two on DVD.
LexG,
I have to question your stab at the 85% Hispanic audience. Is the Hispanic audience really so big as to drive the film to $84m and $107m? What about its overseas numbers?
Now, it seems like I’m retroactively plugging a hole on the issue of the size of the home BUT… if we were to check the income of the characters in most Hollywood product (movies and TV) and then examine the homes they live in, we would see that they are bigger and more affluent than they could afford in real life. It’s like an advertisement/aspiration. The most extreme and obvious example of it is MTV Cribs/The Kardashians/Jersey Shore. Few if any audiences live in such mansions, but almost all audiences wish they did. Projection of a fantasy is just the flip side of fear. And PA taps into them in spades.
There’s never one pat explanation for why a film is successful, but I buy Lex’s analysis a lot more than Pope’s.
Mighty Macs has a 2009 date on IMDB… Looks like a cute enough family movie, Boreanz is always ridiculous… but mostly I wonder if the big church audience is a fan of Gugino’s other work.
Also if JKill pops back on: At your AMC, do you now get that little intro with Emilio and Martin Sheen plugging THE WAY and indie movies? It’s so good-natured and earnest it’s really making me wanna go check out their movie, which I’m sure is a nice time-killer.
Lex is in Los Angeles. So, let me just say that 85 percent of the PA audience isn’t going to be hispanic everywhere.
and i think that assessment may be accurate for his backyard, but there’s a problem with taking what happens in your backyard and applying it to everywhere.
That’d be like me walking into a theater for PA3 in a community like mine that is a lot of rednecks and college students and assuming the vast majority of the audience is composed of those demographics.
Nothing against Lex, but I think any assumption where a movie’s primary audience is made up of any one group based on a single screening in an area with a heavy hispanic population is a little narrow.
I saw that The Way AMC intro before PA3. I’m tempted to check it out, if only to encourage the one son of Martin Sheen who hasn’t been rewarded for general douche-baggery. Not saying that Charlie is the only one in Hollywood who is a jerk, but it’s gotta annoy Emilio Estavez that the crazy, drug-addict brother is the one who is a multi-millionare/mega-star. Let’s just say that the Funny Or Die viral last year with Ralph Macchio was more culturally relevant and timely than it probably intended…
Whatever the demographics, I think one thing cuts across all Paranormal Activity crowds: the need to talk all through these goddamn movies. It’s weird how those movies are always the loudest audiences.
I like all the analysis, and I think there is some truth in all of it. Urban audiences, as Lex implies, do like horror/genre stuff a lot.
And I like Pope’s deeper exploration. The first movie could very well just be about a couple learning how hellish it can be to co-habitate. Everyone brings some “demons” to a relationship.
But for me it remains as simple as them just being “BOO! Machines.” I took my daughter and her friends to the haunted house at the Egyptian Theater here in Dekalb, IL last night and it reminded me again just how much fun something so simple can be. That’s what the PA movies are too me. Some folks get nothing out of Halloween haunts, too, so not surprising so many find PA to be boring.
Going back to BLAIR WITCH, I agree it remains an amazing fuck-up. The fact that they still are struggling to get a third green lit (which apparently goes the found footage route again) amazes me. They out-thought themselves on that sequel, and while it was gutsy it was a momumental gaff. I hope they can get another off the ground because I still love that film and it’s mythology.
jesus. if you can’t get a third blair witch going in the wake of Paranormal Activity, then there is something seriously wrong. The post theatrical market alone for something like that would make them money. Maybe not paranormal activity money, but there’s a huge chunk of change waiting to be made there.
There must be a lot of people with their hands on the rights.
Lex, I saw THE WAY ad at AMC for the very first time last week at THE THING. I’m probably going to check it out too if it pops up in my area, for the same good natured and earnest vibe you mentioned…it’s almost the anti-Emmerich ad in how humble and low-key it is.
From what I’ve seen, I like Emilio as a director. There were parts of BOBBY that I thought worked really well (the ending was so moving), and RATED X was very entertaining. I was also a big fan of MEN AT WORK but it’s been a good while since I’ve seen it…
The Pope has some solid points regarding the PA films phenomenon but the other aspect is the cold, static style in which they’re “shot.” It’s almost like three card Monty or that old shell game. You keep seeing the same shots or rooms over and over and the suspense builds because you know eventually, in one of these shots, something very real and terrifying will happen. I haven’t seen PA3 yet but those other two admittedly freaked me out.
Never saw Blair Witch 2. Was it as bad as legend has it? Sure looked awful at the time.
I’m looking forward to taking my wife to PA3. Just hope I don’t read any spoilers before we get a chance to see it.
Blair Witch 2 is pretty bad. A misguided meta-textual bore that more or less thumbs its nose at the original.
Speaking of grosses: I will be very interested to see how “Ra.One” — a 3-D Bollywood super hero movie — does when it opens this week in North America. They’re evidently going mainstream with this one — to the point of running banner ads on Yahoo! Movies.
Joe – RA One trailer …looks like a video game..
it probably has english subtitles…
plus Shahrukh Khan is in it , dude is good at speaking
english … but he’s too famous for a dp/30 .
As an over 40 (age and IQ) person, I opted for THE BIG YEAR. Wow, what a wonderful, warm–and original–comedy, with an astounding cast and some magnificent locations. Oh yeah, and the year’s worst marketing. This is gonna become Exhibit A the next time someone grouses about the studios shunning original material. Thanks a lot, all you remake/sequel whores!
I have a feeling I JUST MISSED sitting two across from Cadavra at the mall today…
FWIW if he pops back in, I agree with Cadavra on BIG YEAR… Melancholy and slight but really pleasant, with a sort of uniquely pre-IRONY look at male friendship (between Black and Martin) and respectful competition… also dug Wilson’s low-key performance here, and especially enjoyed Rosamund Pike showing her feet a lot more than she does in Johnny English 2… Whole thing had that “Funny Farm” kind of vibe where it’s not particularly hilarious or even that funny, but ambles away earnestly depicting adults in a comedy behaving like actual human beings, without any really big obstacles or shticky plot points. NO idea who the audience for the movie was, though, and it was probably impossible to market, but along with people making a nice case for Margaret and Take Shelter– not saying this is on the same level or ANY kind of must-see, but it’s more worthy of respect than its studio gave it. It’s also one of Black’s nicest, less intense performances.
A DELIGHT.
Lex, it’s so nice when we agree on a movie!
ETA: Oh, and I don’t think we were at the same show, as the only other people there were an elderly couple.
I wish I liked The Big Year as much as you guys! I did think it got the short shrift from its marketing, like to the point of the trailer even cutting together mild lines of dialogue to make them into clumsy jokes… but at the same time, it was strange for a movie with Martin, Wilson, and Black to be so lacking in jokes or anything funny or even deadpan — it was all just, yeah, very nice and a little bland. I mean, any one of those actors in this movie, it might seem like a nice little semi-serious lightly comic turn… but for all three of them to be in that mode, I don’t know, it felt a little like they had nice ideas for the movie’s vibe but not its actual story, and like they thought it would probably just kinda turn out funny if they hired comedy actors and a comedy director and even a sometime comedy writer (Howard Franklin! Did the wonderful QUICK CHANGE with Murray!)… but it didn’t.
Not that I was looking for crazy schtick or anything; I agree that Black was nicely subdued, Martin was affecting, and Wilson was fine, too. But they all do enough crummy comedies that I had a hunger to see them in something a little funnier. Not raucous or anything… just maybe more Wes Anderson-y funny, or mid-to-late Woody Allen-y funny.
It was interesting, though; as a movie about bird-watching and weird hobbies and the desire to accomplish something, it held my attention. It’s just a little wandering and shapeless, almost by design. Again, it felt a little to me like the filmmakers were thinking there would be this extra spark that would materialize on its own, and it didn’t.
Lex, I find Funny Farm an odd comparison, because I remember as a kid finding that movie pretty damn funny. Actually, something in that vein — a bit odd and not always LOL-hilarious but solidly amusing — would’ve been a bit more satisfying.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy anyone even went to see this movie and I’m not sorry I saw it… I just wish I liked it as much as you guys did!
Have not seen Big Year yet, but judging from what most of you are saying, it’s a low-key, quietly amusing comedy of melancholy. And evidently there just isn’t an audience for something like that anyone — in large part because no one knows how to market something like that anymore. Makes me wonder how Local Hero would fare today.
i watched Real Steel 2011 – better fighting robots than Transformers 3 ..and they don;t even talk.
this is nice family friendly 100 million pg13 film …
if this were r-rated robot fighting film …it might have gotten some oscar buzz..
the great part was there was 10 people in the theatre so i had this huge screen to myself and nobody did annoying things with cell phones or talking…
Joe, I do wonder if The Big Year could’ve caught on, or at least made the same amount of money off of far fewer screens/prints, if it had been platformed like a Searchlight type of movie. An older crowd would probably find it quite charming and enjoyable.
But to do that, it would probably have to star different people. If a Martin/Black/Wilson comedy (even if it’s barely a comedy) goes out on few screens in the same month that Nic Cage/Nic Kidman and Richard Gere/Topher Grace movies barely get released, it might not come off so well.
(And of course, having those three stars in the movie probably upped the budget past where putting it out in 100 theaters would make financial sense.)
Fox is really striking out with comedies, though — almost like the Alvin and the Chipmunks style release-a-trailer-a-month-before-it’s-out strategy doesn’t work on all movies! I know not a lot of people liked What’s Your Number? but I feel like that movie should’ve been an easy $15 million opening regardless. And though we like to pretend sometimes that movies fail at the box office because audiences can just TELL when something isn’t good, I bet anything people who actually saw What’s Your Number wouldn’t say it was egregiously bad (and even if they did, they’re wrong; it’s funnier than most of the movies it’s misguidedly trying to emulate). $20 million for an Anna Faris rom-com shouldn’t be a bad investment (and I’d be surprised if the movie doesn’t turn out to do at least OK on DVD).
Similarly, no matter what audience reaction to The Big Year was, a cute movie with those stars should be able to open to $10 million.
I also thought it was bizarre that What’s Your Number opened so low. The trailers were ubiquitous, and funnier than a lot of other romcoms’, and the cross-gender appeal seemed decent.
But then again, I didn’t bother to see it either.
I went opening night and made a bunch of friends go! But I’m a huge Faris fan. And even in Manhattan, the theater wasn’t full.
“PA3 was good, but the most paranormal thing I saw this weekend is the Dolphins lose a 15-0 lead over Tim Tebow with 3 minutes left. Horrifying (I know Dave is a fellow Fin fan so that;s why I bring it up). I suspect Tony Sparano disappears too by dawn.”
Good to see there are a few other Fin fans still alive and kicking. Lord knows the team does no favors to one’s health.
I don’t know who went to see PA3, but I can say from past experience working at a video store that at least some Hispanics have a deep affection for indescribably crappy horror films. There would always be at least a dozen direct-to-DVD, zero-budget, horror crapfests collecting dust on the new release wall, as none of the mostly caucasian customer base would go anywhere near them. But the handful of male hispanic customers we had would walk around the wall and come back with a stack of nothing but direct-to-DVD stinkers, completely ignoring the big studio releases. Go figure.