14 Weeks To Oscar: Down To The Real Nitty Gritty

After the speed bumps of NYFCC, NBR, and the two coasts of indie prematurity, we’re a week away from the start and end of the first serious wave of awards that will continue to define a fairly well-defined season to date.

There are two major battles underway. The first is for the number of Best Picture nominees, as well as which films will fill the slots. Because of the restructuring of the Academy voting procedure, being #1 in the hearts and minds of at least 10% of Academy voters is more important than ever. If you don’t have 550 #1 votes coming your way, you just don’t know what might happen.

Looking at the Gurus o’ Gold charts, only 2 films have been voted into the Top 5 by every voter in the group, The Artist and The Descendants. War Horse has one non-5 voter, who places the film in the 7 slot. And it gets more slippery from there. Hugo, which is tied for #6 on this week’s chart, has only 2 Gurus putting it in the Top 5 and 7 of 13 voters have it placed at #9 or worse, making it an unlikely nominee in their minds at this time.

I’m not just trying to promote Gurus here… I think that the ambivalence fits the season so far.

The Tree of Life has a lot of love out there and is in our Top 10… but only 4 gurus put it in the Top 7. Everyone voted for The Help… all within the 3 – 7 range. At 7, it might not be getting in. At 3, it’s a lock.

I would say that we’re down to 14 possible Best Picture nominees. And past the Top 3, there is room for movement. If you ask embargoed members of NYFCC and HFPA, two of the three groups to see The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo first, you will hear that the film is already dead. True? Not true? Won’t know until later this week (aka tomorrow). Is holding Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close the best idea ever, allowing it to take a strong position amongst the contenders before anyone has a chance to grow disenchanted with it… as almost all of these films have suffered over time? Don’t know. Still need to see the movie. (Next week.)

And what of “The Angelina Jolie Movie,” which currently has not a single vote on the Gurus chart? Premieres next week. And it will be almost impossible for the film to make an Oscar dent outside of the below-the-line categories. It may be a great film… but a first-time director will be more than hard pressed to overcome the arrogance of throwing the movie into the ring at the very end of the process… even if almost every journalist wants to sit at the director’s feet and purr. Unknown actors and the Bosnian War are trouble. The film would have to be twice as good (whatever that means) as any previously released film to overcome the handicaps… even if HFPA will nominate her film just so they can have her on the red carpet in a blood red dress.

I expect that the lack of intense, singular passion at the top of the group – Artist/Descendants – will end up making the nomination count lower than not. Probably 7. Why? Because in order for #2s (and possibly #3s) to be counted, those movies at the top need to have at least 19% of the vote. Will one of them make that? Will two? Not sure either is there at this point.

And same at the bottom of the vote, where they go to the #2s for ballots whose $1 choices represent less than 1% of the vote. It seems to me that even longshot films like Drive and Beginners and J Edgar might well put together 55 or more #1 votes out of 5500+ potential voters… almost on directly connected voters alone.

The way I see this season, a lot of the films that won’t make the cut will have more than 1% of the vote. So I would argue that fewer “recounted” ballots will happen this season because things are so evenly spread out.

The second big battle is for a Best Actress slot.

Every acting category is, as always, competitive. But usually, it’s Best Actor or Supporting Actor where the big fight is. This year, it feels like some big chances can still happen in all the acting categories, but one… Best Actress.

There are, basically, eight deadly serious potential nominees for Actress this year. Three of them are going to be left out. And it will really feel like that… left out.

Can The Academy possibly leave Meryl Streep without a nomination?

Glenn Close is well respected, a previous nominee, and someone who spent decades trying to get her film made, delivering a remarkable performance. Can she miss with that story?

Viola Davis is the soul of The Help. Many have already pegged her as the winner.

Michelle Williams hits an out-of-the-park home run as Marilyn Monroe, not only brilliant, but combining everything The Academy wets its pants over when it comes to nominations… make-up, bringing a historic figure to life, glamorous, serious.

Are those four all in? Maybe.

And that last slot?

Well… you have two Oscar winners in Charlize Theron and Tilda Swinton, both brilliant in their new films. Charlize is shockingly funny, while Tilda is as intense as people expect.

And then, there are the two newcomers, Lizzie Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene, mesmerizing audiences for a year now, and Rooney Mara, who has, perhaps, the role of the year in Dragon Tattoo…. brazen, smart, raped, surviving, overcoming, stronger than all the men.

I can hear you, already arguing in your heads. Some of you will think the choice of 5 is obvious. Others, impossible. Some will argue that they’ve had enough of Streep in make-up stunts. Others that Michelle Williams isn’t sexy enough. Others that Viola Davis being the salt of the earth is not Oscar worthy. Are enough people seeing the Glenn Close movie… or that MMMMMMMM thing? Why give an Oscar nod to a newcomer for a role that is so controlled by the director? We’ve seen Tilda do this? Charlize’s movie isn’t heavy enough.

Whatever.

I kind of agree with a couple of those negative arguments. But not enough to say that these are not deserving performances, because, you know, it’s not all about me. It’s about the amazing work. And it is all wonderful work.

Sorry… but you won’t see a better dramatic performance this year than the one given by Charlize Theron in the midst of what is mostly a comedy. Why punish Streep for continuing to challenge herself? Lizzie Olsen controls the screen every second she is on that screen. Viola IS a rock and she is one of the great actors of her generation. Glenn Close getting this movie made is a major achievement and her performance is a remarkable piece of understated acting, every bit on par with Hopkins in Remains of the Day. Tilda rocks and should be nominated annually, if only to celebrate her attitude about the work. The balls on Rooney Mara taking on this role, already done well, with a director who would push her to the very edge of her soul is a mighty thing. And not only is Michelle Williams sexy enough to outdo Marilyn, but she goes so far beyond the stereotypes of that beauty that she deserves a feminist of the year award too.

See?

Anyone who gets left out – and there are others who some will argue should also be on this list and are being left out as it is – is really getting screwed… in the way that not being honored enough for your work can be considered being screwed.

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