Friday Estimates by Ho Ho Klady
Giving context to yesterday’s box office is not easy. The last time Christmas Eve was on Saturday was 2005 and the only wide release that weekend was The Ringer.
When you have people out there saying M:I -Ghost Protocol is “disappointing,” what numbers are they looking at? Probably the fantasy numbers that people made up in their heads. Or worse, comparing it by day, suggesting that a wide release day is the same as a 425 screen IMAX release day. The numbers so far suggest that this film will land somewhere between Mission 2 (the biggest of the franchise) and Mission 3 (the smallest). The real story of Ghost Protocol’s finances will be overseas, where none of the franchise’s films have failed to top $250 million. But even domestically, the film looks to be heading to the neighborhood of $100m within the next 9 holiday days, even without a significant uptick of any kind.
Is Sherlock a disappointment at the box office? Absolutely. But that film too is waiting on international numbers. The first film’s $200m domestic gross was really the surprise. But the lesson of this sequel? Holmes isn’t Batman. You can’t do the same marketing campaign 2 years later, it seems, and expect the same level of interest. For one big thing, the box office bloom seems to be a bit off the Downey rose. Instead of coming up with different hits and then going back to his most significant box office successes, the last four years have been 2 Iron Man films and now, 2 Sherlock Holmes films. In between, he has done two $100m domestic comedies (Tropic Thunder and Due Date), but as we have seen with every other comic superstar, people get bored of the gag after a while. And what’s coming up on his schedule? The Avengers (aka Iron Man & Friends) and another Iron Man. I expect he will find some time in between suit fittings to do some other characters. He really needs more Due Dates and/or dramas if he doesn’t want to be a very rich guy without an audience. And Sherlock 2 seems to be the first victim of this… though foreign may well make the film a financial success, much as the wildly inferior Iron Man 2 fell off at home, but outgrossed its predecessor worldwide.
The third shot at $200m domestic with The Chipmunks will fall short also. But like Sherlock, if you were not an obsessive movie fan, how would you know the difference between Episode 2 and Episode 3? I’ve written it before, but as much of a shock as the grosses on the first film were, the second film stayed strong by offering girl chipmunks singing Beyonce. The sequel seemed to be fresh. What’s new this time? There may be something in the film… but if it’s not in the marketing, it’s not going to turn up at the box office.
What do you do with The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo? I don’t really know. Hard R at Christmas. It’s a bit of a reach, but the recent film this most reminds me of is Valkyrie, which was PG-13 and had a somewhat faded superstar in the lead. It’s hard to know whether this film will catch on or not, but Valkyrie‘s $83m domestic is looking optimistic for Girl, short of a mighty wave of word of mouth… yet another example of the bottom line impotence of powerful social media.
We Bought A Zoo has been a tweener since Fox started rolling it out. Potential ticket buyers are being asked to see it as a family film and as a Scarlett Johansson lip-licker. The family side is the main focus though… and that flies right in the face of the Cameron Crowe brand. So who is going to show up? Once Fox decided that this was a family push, it should have gotten out of Alvin’s way and their own ability to fully focus and pushed to the Paul Blart date in January. Yes, Beauty & The Beast 3D will eat some business, but they could have done a full-out family push, spent a lot less on TV in January, and realistically targeted $80m or so and not the $45m or so they are going to be lucky to get to over the holidays.
Disney and Paramount found themselves with the same problem domestically. They have two very good Spielberg films built around two well-known international brands, neither one of which rings many bells in the United States. Tintin is nearing $250m overseas, though it hasn’t been a real phenom with mega-numbers only in France and very strong numbers in Spain and the UK. It looks to be outgrossed in Japan by movies like 3D Musketeers and Apes. There are territories left to open, but the idea of this cracking $500m internationally have been shelved. Meanwhile, the War Horse rises on Sunday, also pretty wide, and also with its future unclear.
The thing is, it’s easy to second guess choices in retrospect. Disney knew they had an awareness problem a couple of months ago and started national sneaks for War Horse, trying to move the ball. The one advantage they have is that War Horse is a legitimate awards contender moving forward, so they may get another bite of the apple (so to speak). But if that is the play, why go wide tomorrow? It’s almost like they are protecting the film by trying to take advantage of the holiday box office opportunity… but also hoping that they will be saved by Oscar.
Meanwhile, Paramount has opened a movie in four of the last 5 weeks. That’s a bit insane. And none of them have been throw-away fluff. And Mission: Impossible is the only one that is looking like a possible box office hit. (Young Adult may see its life extended by the award season as well, but so far, a box office disappointment.) My immediate response on Tintin would have been to push it even further from its international release and to go in March. Trying to ride international success is not easy – has it ever been done? – and doing it in such a constricted window makes it almost impossible. But then you are looking at Disney with John Carter, WB with a Titans sequel, and Lionsgate launching Hunger Games in March, so not only is March competitive, but Disney/DreamWorks/Spielberg might not be so willing to add competition to that field with so much on the line with John Carter.
I’m sick of reading about the slump that is still not a slump. People looking to sell propaganda try to push, for instance, Puss in Boots, as some big disappointment when, in reality, it did about the same numbers as Megamind, without a box office star like Will Ferrell or Brad Pitt, and the only Nov/Dec DreamWorks Animation release ever to do better than those films was the Madagascar sequel.
However, this does not mean that Holiday 2011 kinda sucks against expectations. There is a lot of very commercial, audience-friendly content out there, but most of it seems to be piled up this week. You know it’s been a bad run when you find yourself wondering where this year’s Tangled was. (The answer isn’t that complicated… 3 family-only films from 3 different studios in the place of one Disney animated film. The DWA film is a yr-vs-yr wash. And Tangled had a month before the only other kids film of the season, Yogi Bear, opened in December… and also did $100m domestic.) As for where this December’s Tron Legacy was… well, where was it? It could have been Mission or Tintin, but neither went out to suck up the box office from early/mid-December.
Anyway… I will be doing a year ender on the box office. But let’s not forget that after Q1 2011, business was off 20% from last year. Now we’re looking at about 5%. We were actually down under 4% at the end of Q3 and this last quarter has gone in the wrong direction after 2 quarters of improvement over last year. This is already the third highest-grossing year in history. Thank goodness we have people to obsess on estimating ticket sales in order to darken the mood.
Dare I point out that we had three billion dollar movies for the first time in history… or that “dead” 3D was a significant revenue producer in the four highest grossing films of the year?
The devil is the lack of details… and the search for a cheap headline.
I’m never one for slump talk, but isn’t it kind of amazing that the last movie to cross $100m was Twilight, way back on Nov 19th. With all the product being released, nothing has broken out of the pack and lit the box office afire. MI:GP looks poised for a good run, but I don’t know if anything will break $200m. Last time no December films grossed $200m was 2008 when Grand Torino was the top dog with $148m. Before that, 1999. Ouch. And the funny thing is, almost all of it is getting good to great reviews. Ouch..ouch.
Eh, on the flip side of that, for 30-some years I’ve been confounded that CHRISTMASTIME is a hot time to open big-dick movies, let alone 237 of them all at once– Isn’t all of Fat America out shopping in their reindeer Cosby sweaters and EATING CORN and sending turkey down their gullets and hitting the SHOPPING MALL and carelessly walking slow with their strollers full of ugly children?
America is CHRISTMAS SHOPPING CRAZY, plus WINTER IS DEPRESSING, all that cold weather and bulky clothes and everyone in a grumpy mood from it getting dark at 4 FUCKING PM… Who’s really in the mood for MOVIES?
I’m honestly surprised anyone ever goes to the movies in December. It’s so depressing.
plus WINTER IS DEPRESSING, all that cold weather and bulky clothes
Jesus, Lex!
You live in southern fucking California. How bad can winter really be out there? Some of the happiest times of my life were the Januarys I spent in LA.
You want “depressing” and “cold,” move back to Pennsylvania (or Ohio where I’m presently interred).
Paramount certainly was dumb in scheduling so many movies over such a short period…is it foolish to think the shuttering of P. Vantage hurt “Young Adult” significantly? Searchlight has been plugging away admirably with “The Descendants,” which will quietly have reached $35 million after Christmas despite what seemed like a hard-to-sell premise.
I also agree with the lazy advertising by Big Fox on “Alvin 3” and the muddled campaign on “We Bought a Zoo.” It’s especially confounding given the fact that its four post-summer movies until now (Sitter, In Time, The Big Year, What’s Your Number) were all the subject of barely-there marketing efforts.
Focusing on the big picture though DP, this may be the third-biggest year in terms of domestic BO revenue, but the problem remains the collapse of the DVD market. Overall industry revenue has taken a MUCH bigger hit since 2009 than the BO numbers show.
Look at domestic sales of Harry Potter. “Goblet of Fire” and “Order of Phoenix” ended up between 217-223 million. “Half Blood Prince” collapsed to just 117 million. “Deathly Hallows 1” has done about $85 million so far and figures to finish below 100 million. This is why the box office decline of 5% is more disconcerting than it appears.
Ethan, there are different revenue streams now, and I would wager a film like Potter takes full advantage of them.
That aside, what seems to be missing from this holiday season is a TRON. A film that gets a people excited enough for close to a 50 million dollar opening and none of these films are going to get that this year. This leaves us with the wonderful week of box office that hopefully helps these films but lets be honest here: this year is just kind of blah.
When you have a blah Summer that effects the rest of the year, and few movies have seemed to really excite people (Not us, everyone else) this year. This is why going with a film like the Artist as a frontrunner for the Oscar, works for 2011, because it would be the complete and utter representation of a total BLAH year.
Oh yeah, DECEMBER AND WINTER ARE NOT DEPRESSING. THEY ARE TOTALLY AWESOME, YOU OUTWEAR HATING SOCAL SO AND SO!
“Ethan, there are different revenue streams now, and I would wager a film like Potter takes full advantage of them.”
Other than foreign box office, which doesn’t nearly make up for lost home market rev, what are you referring to? Since VOD doesn’t publicize numbers, it’s impossible to know its impact. And the rental market has if anything gotten softer in the last 5 years due to cheaper rental rates.
Just comparing the top 5 DVD’s of 2007 to 2010, you have an over $400 million decline in raw revenue. “Cinderella III: A Twist in Time,” the 25th best-selling DVD of 2007, would rank as the 5th best-selling DVD in 2011. I’d love to see evidence that Hollywood is making up for these massive losses in other formats, but until proof exists I’m skeptical.
@ethang you’re not taking into account blu ray sales.
According to the numbers.com DH2 has 85 mil in DVD.
But ALSO 94 mil in blu ray.
So it’s at 180 mil and still did 4mil last week.
It will easily pass 200mil on blu ray/DVD total.
So while that’s down from 223 mil, it’s hardly a collapse.
Ethan, what the guy stated above, but there’s also Itunes and Amazon rentals. These things exist. You also have the rentals from Redbox and even those Blockbuster Kiosk. Seriously, they might not be making what they did 4 years ago, but those other revenue streams may be making things more comparable.
More examples on a smaller scale…
Capt America:
23 mil DVD
58 mil blu ray
Cars 2
70 mil DVD
64 mil blu ray
Yes the market has shrunk but not as much as it looks like at first glance.
Running out the door, so no time to try to get into detail, but I would say that the industry has already absorbed the DVD drop-off into its numbers internally. The industry, on the film side, took a solid 30% hit to the bottom line in the last 3 years.
The current emerging technology hope is streaming. The Rape of Netflix is the story of the year, even if none of the media majors are ready to write it.
I still feel we are a few years from the next big step, which is a major conversion to the subscription model with theatrical a potential component of the system and not a separate piece… but that last part will take longer to come together.
Have a nice day all.
Unfortunately Jerryishre, the-numbers.com did not begin tracking Blu-Ray sales until late last year and never counted HD-DVD sales because the industry did not begin releasing numbers until then except for selected titles.As the-numbers.com notes on Harry Potter movies 1-6, ” Blu-ray and HD DVD sales are not included at this time.”
Is Blu-Ray bigger than it was four years ago? Yes. How much bigger is it compared to 2007 if you include HD-DVD? Virtually impossible to say. Even drawing the rosiest possible picture for Deathly Hallows Part I, you end up with probably a $75 million loss in revenue from the 4th and 5th films.
Fair points DP. Merry Xmas to all!
Blu ray in 2007 and hd DVD in 2007 was MINISCULE.
75 mil difference as rosiest picture?
Doubt it.
Blurry/hd penetration was barely a blip for those early potter films.
DPs 30 percent estimate may be right… But on titles like potter less so.
And even at 30 percent you’re talking a worst case 60mil diffence. 75 mil? An apocalyptic difference. Not a “rosiest” situation.
Rosy situation is no diff. Which is possible in potters case.
The titles that are hurting are things like green lantern. Middling movies or outright bombs that used to count on DVD purchases — that market is way off.
1) People are getting sick of the constant diet of remakes and sequels.
2) People are in a mental, if not financial recession, so they’re more likely to seek refuge in the upbeat and familiar.
However…
3) See #1.
People love sequels and remakes whe they are entertained by them.
Between Sherlock and MI and chipmunks they will spend over 400 mil on sequels remakes
Last Xmas between tron, true grit and fockers they spent over 500mil on sequels/ remakes.
Cornerstone of the biz.
Not changing.
I wouldn’t say that Blu-Ray/HD-DVD was barely a blip four years ago..especially when you consider that the average Blu-Ray was much more expensive then..but regardless, you really think that a significant portion of the people snapping up Potter 7 on Blu-Ray haven’t gone out and upgraded their earlier titles as well?
As pointed out, Blu-Ray hasn’t made up for the massive home market bleeding, but perhaps the industry has internalized the losses. It just seems somewhat unlikely.
Based on prior performance, that $400m they’re supposed to spend this year should’ve been $600m+.
People are getting sick of constant remakes and sequels. They’re on top because they’re the most familiar. But they’re lagging.
That’s my point.
I spoke to somebody yesterday who was disgusted that Dragon Tattoo had been remade so quickly. He became more interested when I told him Fincher directed it. But the point remained: he was sick of all the sequels and remakes.
In middle America, when a family buys potter on blu ray, they are not upgrading past purchases.
That’s a collector mentality not a consumer mentality.
And the collector market is a tiny subsection.
Yes the home market has taken a hit but not so much on the tent pole titles.
And yes those 30% losses are factored in to the budgets now.
Point is –revenue on a massive level is still out there. Both at the box office and. The home markets.
Add dragon tatoo into the remake column and we’re at 500 mil on remake/sequel spending.
Who do u figure 600 mil?
Biggest MI film was 200.
Last one was 133
This one will be lucky to break 175. A respectable number. But who woulda thought more?
Tin tin
Warhorse
Zoo
That’s where the problems are. And yes, while based on other material, they are essentially originals.
Both previous installments of Sherlock and Chipmunks did $200m+.
Right there is $400m.
Even if we’re talking MI:3 numbers, you’re already on your way to roughly $550m.
So yeah, that’s where my $600m number is coming from.
It’s down.
But no reasonable expectation had chipmunks or Sherlock matching previous installments.
The studio spends on both indicated as much.
Which is not say you’re wrong to call 3 disappointments.
I agree budgets have scaled back slightly, but it is ridiculous to imagine they’ve been cut back big time to a pre-DVD market level. The three most expensive animated films of all-time (Toy Story 3, Cars 2, Tangled) were released in the last 17 months. You had the most expensive superhero launch of all-time (Green Lantern), and most expensive X-Men film this year. You had 200 million dropped on a “Tron” sequel for god’s sake, and two of the most expensive films of all-time (Batman 3, Hobbit) are on-tap for next year.
Indeed the box office is down.
But the problem is less from the sequels than from the fact that zoo won’t be marley and me.
And that tin tin was no Christmas carol or polar express.
Tron sequel was well below 200mil (and profitable believe it or not)
The rest were all good bets
The only bomb you list is green lantern.
Everything else will break even or make oodles of cash.
You’re completely missing what I’m saying.
The whole point is that when people are in a mental recession they want what’s familiar and uplifting — this is why the fresher titles aren’t catching — BUT at the same time, they’re sick of the sequels and remakes, so those are down as well.
It’s a Catch-22.
No, I understood
We’re just having different conversations.
That said, one could argue tin tin, war horse and zoo are all “familiar” AND “original” which are usually when things breakthrough (see: avatar)
but failure of execution, not a slump, is why things are down.
Man you are argumentative. My point is that there were 24 or 25 films released this year that cost at least $100 million. I agree that budgets are down slightly, but when you have studios willing to throw down $150 million on a film like “Mars Needs Moms,” we still have a long way to go waste-wise.
We can agree!
Mars was a massive error!
But those mistakes are not as rampant as you seem to suggest.
All tent poles are essentially gambles.
Mars looked good at the time they made it.
The TATTOO number is not surprising to those of us who have been hollering “Too soon!” for months now. Most people saw the original–via VOD, DVD and cable–in the last year. And especially in a depressed economy, not that many people are going to spend $10-15 to see an almost scene-for-scene remake of a movie they just saw.
Shame also about Hugo. It never stood a chance.
Maybe in these economic times, people are saying, “Man, I WISH I could afford to buy a zoo. Rich schmuck.”
Cadavra I agree about Tattoo-I work at a theatre where I could see it for free-and I’m relunctant to go there so soon again. We played the original and business for the remake has been so-so. On the other hand I just saw MI4GP today and enjoyed it tremendously. I have never seen the other three films. Three things brought me in -Brad Bird,Jeremy Renner and Simon Pegg. And Paula Patton certainly kept my interest. Tom Cruise–I still don’t like him -but he was easy to take this time.
How about people who read the book opting not to be tortured in a similar fashion again. It should also be said that Americans are stupid and they left a ton of money on the table by not moving the story to the US. All those funny accents probably turned off people in the heartland.
Every day I don’t see a movie, consider it my protest against the MPAA and movie studios for wanting to impose the fascist SOPA/PIPA bills upon us.
Bitplayer, moving the story to the U.S. would have been extremely difficult. Not really a spoiler: the Nazi subplot pretty much demands a European setting.
I have been saying all along when it comes to dragon tattoo that maybe not than many people want too see a movie with graphic rape scenes at christmas. In fact has there ever been such a hard core r rated big studio movie at this time of year? This is the problem the studios seem to be having right now. Blowing too much money on movies and releasing them at the wrong time and lazily marketing sequals like Sherlock Holmes Game Of Shadows, assuming they will show up just because they did the first time. I am a huge movie fan who goes to over 40 movies a year but that is not the norm for average joe american who goes to only a few movies a year in the theater. They need a reason to go the movies and the studios are not exactly doing their best job at that right now and until they do the so called slump or downturn is going to last awhile if not for good.
This is what happens when Hollywood decides to remake a foreign film a year after its release. It didn’t work with “Let Me In” and it doesn’t work with “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”.
“The Muppets” went up this week, which is good, but the christmas films of this year are not doing well. There’s yet to be a film which broke the 100 million barrier. 2012, with The Hobbit, Prometheus, The Hunger Games and The Dark Knight Rises will probably be stellar.
Sarina is right.
It’s about THE MOVIES.
TDKR, Hobbit, Prometheus, Hunger Games.
Far more impressive line up than captain America, mission 4 and sucker punch.
It’s the movies. Not a slump. Or lack of interest. When people are engaged, they go.
This Xmas is just a lamer version of last Xmas.
Tron, fockers, true grit
Mission, sh2, dragon tattoo
All due respect to these films, none of them were events the way hobbit probably will be. or avatar was. Or I am legend.
In a weird way, tron was closest. No one of consequence remembered the original so it was essentially an original. It was mostly mismarketed (they shoulda gotten kids too — then it woulda been 225 or higher instead of 175)
Mission is an okay film hitting it’s ceiling.
All due respect to its fervent fanbase, But it’s nothing “new”
It’s all about product.
LexG: You’ll be happy to know that, during a long stretch of The Darkest Hour, Olivia Thirlby runs around barefoot.