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By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady


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90 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady”

  1. Chris says:

    Haywire kicks ass. More people should see it. That is all.

  2. Nick Rogers says:

    Big crowd when I saw Red Tails last night. Clearly some WWII vets in the audience. Sparse applause when it was over. Saw Haywire just beforehand. I loved it, but everyone else was grousing about it on the way out. Despite how good both of the films are, between this and Warrior, I don’t think there’s much of a market for the MMA mentality at the movies.

  3. waterbucket says:

    Oh no, where’s The Artist? Didn’t they expand wide this week? I’m seeing it today!

  4. movieman says:

    Not a terribly promising start for “Coriolanus,” is it?
    I wonder just how serious Weinstein will be about expanding the film down the road.
    “Not very” is my guess since they only seem to be interested in “The Artist” and “Iron Lady” right now.
    Too bad.
    It’s a terrific film, and worth seeing for Vanessa Redgrave’s killer–and deserves to be Oscar-nominated–performance alone.
    Also surprised that “Miss Bala” didn’t open a little better after all of the rave reviews.
    Gotta admit to being kind of shocked that “Red Tails” opened so respectably. I really didn’t think there was an audience–any
    audience–for that movie.
    Goes to show, I guess.
    Not unhappy that 9/11 porn “ELAIC” stumbled out of the gate.
    Love to see it get shut out on Tuesday A.M.

  5. Rob says:

    The Artist has, like, a $30m ceiling. I don’t care how many Oscars it wins. (Granted, this is obviously still amazing for a black and white silent film from France.)

  6. Jarod says:

    I saw several commercials on national channels the last few days for War Horse and The Artist. It doesn’t appear to have helped them much. Without a Best Pic nomination, War Horse might fade away quickly. We know The Artist will receive the nominations, but how much will they help if most of the country is resistant to paying for a black and white square shaped silent movie?

  7. cadavra says:

    Didn’t ARTIST only expand to 600+ screens? If so, that’s not exactly “wide.” Moreover, the history of the film is that reluctant people “take a chance” on it and then tell their friends how terrific it is, so I would expect the numbers outside the big cities to be so-so at first.

    Also important to remember that the typical audience for MMA-style action films is chest-beating macho guys, who would understandably be less than excited at the prospect of watching a bunch of dudes getting their asses kicked by a chick.

  8. Nick Rogers says:

    cadavra: How does that explain Warrior tanking?

  9. Rob says:

    It expanded to 600+ screens, but The Descendants, which has been hanging in that 500-900 screen purgatory since early December, had a better Friday. That says something.

  10. The Big Perm says:

    Haywire looks like just another action programmer…it may or may not be with Soderberg at the helm, but the average audience doesn’t know that. They see the commercials and it’s like “oh, another one of these.”

  11. Mariamu says:

    I have been waiting for Coriolanus to show up at my theatre for awhile now. It’s the kind of stuff my theatre usually goes for. It’s not even on our upcoming films list. Maybe the Weinsteins are only focusing on films like “Marilyn”. Well here’s hoping something breaks thru. We need new films at my theatre.

  12. Mike says:

    MMA got popular because it’s people beating the shit out of each other in real life. It’s not fake like wrestling, and it’s not as “civilized” as boxing. And who cares about the personality of any of the fighters? The only question is how well they fight.

    So why would an MMA fan want to see a movie of fake fighting or of an MMA fighter in an otherwise normal action movie? And what’s the appeal for people who don’t like MMA? I think these films are falling through the gap of either audience.

  13. Bill S says:

    It seems to me that War Horse has already begun to fade — Thursday was its last day in all the theaters just four weeks after it opened here in Boston. I think it’s playing at some cheapy theater in the suburbs and maybe it will come back if it gets some noms but I wonder if this an indicator of some sort of shut out on Tuesday.

  14. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Mike FTW. And that is why all MMA films will ultimately fail at the boxoffice. There’s no way a sweet natured Karate Kid type breakthrough could ever happen with an MMA film.

  15. The Big Perm says:

    Well, Mike’s wrong in thinking that because an MMA fighter is cast in an action movie than there’s no appeal for a regular moviegoer. Depends on the movie. Haywire looks like just another female ass kicking agent who’s betrayed by her own people kind of picture. They seem to release one of those every two months, how many can people take?

    Who would have thought people would want to see wrestlers in movies (see Hulk Hogan’s filmography), but The Rock is doing well. Has anyone ever heard of Silat, but I think the guy from The Raid could break out.

  16. waterbucket says:

    Why go see Haywire when Alias did it better and that was on free network TV?

  17. LexG says:


  18. Rob says:

    What Lex said. Fassbender/McGregor/Tatum/Banderas/Paxton/Douglas/Angarano power.

  19. Philip Lovecraft says:

    The Dublin fight/chase in “Haywire” is worth the price of admission alone.

  20. The Big Perm says:

    waterbucket, Alias was like eight years ago, wasn’t it? Besides Alias was good for one and a half seasons, then like most things Abrams touches, it went to shit.

  21. Don R. Lewis says:

    CORIOLANUS is Shakespeare for the UFC/CALL OF DUTY crowd.

  22. cadavra says:

    Nick: WARRIOR tanked because it had a shitty campaign that made it look like a million other boxing movies. I didn’t even realize it was MMA until the reviews started coming in. And frankly, it had a been-there-done-that feel (not to mention a climactic bout that was inevitable from Frame One) that was dragged out for two hours and 20 minutes. Nolte was indeed superb, but that simply wasn’t enough to get any decent WOM going.

  23. cadavra says:

    BTW, THE ARTIST just won Best Picture at the Producers’ Guild Awards. Jeff Wells’ head exploding in 5,4,3,2…

  24. LexG says:

    Based on both HAYWIRE and the last few things he’s done, is it possible Channing Tatum has a shot at being the New Wahlberg: Pretty-boy B-boy wigger who starts out as kind of a joke, especially with male viewers, but with a real earnest quality and legit toughness that within a couple movies, even the detractors are going, “wait a minute, this guy actually kinda rules.” ‘Cause starting around Dear John, and aided by Ignatiy’s man-rush pro-Tatum arguments, I think he’s pretty fucking cool, and even if not the best actor, has that Wahlbergian straight-ahead non-ironic leading-man quality that’s just gonna play better and better… He’s obviously working with better and better directors now (Mann, Hallestrom, Soderbergh, etc)… I don’t know, for a while he’s been some punchline type that jealous-geek bloggers work up some hate over, but if you actually watch him, he’s pretty rootable and a nice contrast to the influx of beta-male American leads (Eisenberg, Yelchin, Cera, etc.)

  25. yancyskancy says:

    I think you’re right, Lex. Even though I loved the first STEP UP, I wasn’t sure that Tatum had much of a future. But when I caught about half of DEAR JOHN on cable, I thought he gave a really good performance. The Soderbergh connection should definitely help temper any kneejerk critical dismissals. It’ll be interesting to see if he can break through in the Wahlberg manner.

  26. dinovelvet says:

    Yeah seeing as The Sod has hired him three times now, he’s riding the credibility train. Can definitely see him being the next Wahlberg. As Lex noted, all the competition in his age range are nerd/hipster men-boys; there’s got to be someone in American cinema to smash through a window dual-wielding a pair of Berettas while an explosion goes off, and that ain’t Jesse Eisenberg.
    And Haywire WAS awesome, holy shit that fight scene with Fassbender was fantastic. I liked how it showed the combatants getting visibly weaker and swinging half-assed blows as they got worn down. The score was great too, definitely a nice companion piece to The Limey overall. Could totally tell the audience wasn’t into it though, saw a walkout or two. And it does deserve a special award for Most Obvious Tacked-On Ending of the Year.

  27. leahnz says:

    good grief not even, channing tatum couldn’t act his way out of a paper bag if his life depended on it, big galoot with all the charisma, personality and edge of a cotton puff. there’s gosling and evans for yanks of the same age if a modicum of talent and range is required beyond playdoh big galootness

  28. AdamL says:

    I hated Haywire. Haven’t liked anything Soderbergh has done since 2000. And as for Channing Tatum, I spent most of the mercifully short running time thinking what on earth Soderbergh was thinking casting him. Guy can’t act. At all.

  29. JS Partisan says:

    Chris Evans has a gentleness to him that’s great for Steve Roger, but not for a dude who can just beat the shit out of you. Gosling works better for movies like Ides of March then he does beating the crap out of someone. Yes, Drive is a fine movie, but that’s one movie. Much like Clooney before him, Gosling is made for being the guy who talks his way out of things, instead of beating his way out of things.

    Tatum, on the other hand, definitely has that Wahlberg thing, where he looks like he can turn, and beat your ass in a minute. He has that intensity thing that makes him perfect for an action movie.

  30. Chucky says:

    What’s new from Hollywood this weekend? Another sequel. Pro-war propaganda with a dash of diversity. 9/11 propaganda. Name-checking a 10-year-old movie.

    What’s new on The Hot Blog this weekend? More mouth-breathing, more potty mouth, more shouting.

    What’s new in real life this weekend? Snowstorm from Missouri to Massachusetts. Non-stop college basketball with some big names losing. The death of a famous college football coach. NFL conference championships.

    You can see where this easily leads.

  31. yancyskancy says:

    Curious if the Tatum-haters have seen DEAR JOHN. Actors do sometimes improve with experience, or under sensitive direction.

  32. Joe Leydon says:

    “You can see where this easily leads.”

    Er, a weekend gross up over 25% from the same weekend last year?

  33. jesse says:

    Yancyskancy, I was pretty amused-at-best by Tatum, and I saw Dear John. In that movie, in G.I. Joe, in Step Up, even in Guide to Recognizing Your Saints, the guy comes off as kind of a sensitive brute who looks a bit like John Cena (which is to say like a prehistoric Matt Damon)… BUT, yeah, I liked him a lot in Haywire, and he was quite funny in The Dilemma last year. I’m not sure if he’s a good match for McAdams (though I will see The Vow with my wife, who doesn’t even usually go for soppy romantic dramas but wants to see this one, and I assume it will make bank), but he looks REALLY funny in 21 Jump Street, and I can’t wait to see his re-team with Soderbergh in Magic Mike, and even stupid GI Joe 2 looks like fun… so yeah, it looks like this is his year. Good for him.

    Wahlberg is the exact-right comparison to make… though I think at this point, Wahlberg is still way better-equipped to carry a movie, and that’s coming from someone who wants to like his B-movie January trash like Contraband and Shooter (I know not actually a January movie, but come on), but never really does, at least not much. Like Wahlberg, I think Tatum will ultimately be better in character parts… but has the potential to be a surprisingly strong asset. I mean, Wahlberg doesn’t have the greatest range, but Three Kings, Huckabees, Boogie Nights, The Departed… great work there.

    Although really, I feel this way about most actors. If you’re not trying to be a big movie-carrying star, you’ve got a lot of leeway with me. There are few actors I really intensely dislike and never warm to, and those I do dislike tend to people who are doing big leading roles in the kinds of movies I tend to dislike. I mean even Sandra Bullock, not my favorite, has been very good in some small roles (not the fucking Blind Side).

  34. leahnz says:

    fwiw yes i’ve seen ‘dear john’, and i don’t hate tatum at all — he’s a big likable talentless lummox/doofus with lights-on-nobody’s-home eyes and the range of a big caged hamster, no edge or pathos or ability to go outside his box (tho he might be better at more comedic stuff like jump street, hard to tell, he looks kinda funny in the trailer), and about as ‘scary’ as a male stripper. i think the comparison to wahlberg is thin — wahlberg’s at least capable of a bit of introspection and i-did-my-little-bit-of-prison-time edge under the right conditions, convincing me that he’s not just ‘mark wahlberg’, inhabiting a role a bit; tatum has shown me NOTHING so far to indicate that he’s capable of these things at all. ‘the rock’ is a more convincing actor. (and that’s not saying much, really)

    (hey chucky, did you move out of jersey or something? no way, say it isn’t so. i rely on your above-ground swimming pool for amusement)

  35. movieman says:

    …there are few actors I really intensely dislike and never warm to…

    That would be Bradley Cooper for me.


    …there are some actors I grow to intensely dislike over time, and can never warm up to again…

    Michelle Williams

  36. leahnz says:

    actually on second thought i retract my ‘the rock is a more convincing actor’ statement, that’s a tad harsh… i’d put tatum more in the vin diesel-ish range, with a slight edge over vin in the stilted, wooden dialogue stakes but perhaps lagging a bit in the ‘looks like he could actually thump someone’ department

  37. jesse says:

    Bradley Cooper is a good call, movieman… he’s pretty inherently unlikable. Although again, that’s more a product of him being pushed as a leading actor, where he just isn’t compelling enough to get past his utter douchebagginess (that’s not chased with anything actually funny or scrappy or clever)… I feel like he could do OK with me in a supporting role. I could see disliking him across the board, though.

    So your dislike of Michelle Williams… that grew after really enjoying her on Dawson’s Creek but finding her disappointing in Blue Valentine, Meek’s Cutoff, etc.? 😉

    There is something a tiny bit po-faced and self-consciously LITTLE about Williams… lately, she’s always this kind of mopey little mouse.

    But then I think of how funny she was as a meek but also very charmingly dorky character in THE BAXTER, where she actually smiled a few times, and I’m like, OK, maybe this is just the kind of part she’s drawn to, the sad-face flipside of the incurable optimists Amy Adams tends to favor.

    That is why I never warmed to Blue Valentine, though. Gosling and Williams would both probably identify as more naturalistic (and have been excellent in that mode elsewhere) but they struck me as pretty goddamn affected in that movie, especially Gosling. It all felt so self-consciously OBSERVED and SMALL. It feels less natural when I feel like the actor is trying to draw attention to how natural he or she is being. A fine line, I suppose, but I felt like I could see it in that movie.

    Gosling is the rare new actor where I like him more as a movie star. Kinda hated Crazy Stupid Love, but he was great in it. I also liked him in Ides of March and Drive, and in both he cuts more of a movie-star figure than the Serious Actor stuff from Blue Valentine, Half Nelson, etc.

    Anyway, in terms of actors I just straight-up dislike, Julia Roberts is way up there (and that’s not to say I’ve hated every performance of hers, but she definitely has to work for me to like her, and I tend to dislike her even in good movies).

  38. anghus says:

    Channing Tatum, (or is is Tanning Chatum?) is probably the most leaden actor getting consistent work.

    The Rock is pretty charismatic in spite of his lack of acting chops.

    If you want to know who is better, read the ten thousand comments from the GI JOE RETALIATION trailer where people celebrate Tatum being killed and the Rock stepping in to take the lead in the series.

  39. leahnz says:

    anghus, kind of an interesting comment re: charisma vs. the ability to act…

    i’d definitely give ‘the rock’ the edge in charisma over tater tot — the rock is just brimming with energy and boisterous bravado badassery with a pinch of bug-eyed mania and a sprinkling of good cheer and nudge-nudge-wink-wink tongue-firmly-in-cheek self-deprecation thrown in for good measure

  40. jesse says:

    Does Tatum get killed in that trailer? It looks like he’s still there surveying the carnage after the big attack there (though I guess he’s not in a ton of the rest of it).

  41. brack says:

    Huh, always liked Bradley Cooper in stuff. He’s only carried one movie by himself, Limitless, a decent enough sleeper hit last year, and already got that People magazine’s stupid Sexist Man Alive cover. I’m not sure he was a leading man in any of The Hangover movies (the leader of amnesiacs I guess).

  42. yancyskancy says:

    Cooper was so loathesome in WEDDING CRASHERS that I was surprised when he started getting leads, but I found him easy enough to take in THE HANGOVER. Haven’t seen much else really. Not sure I’d buy him in a sympathetic role though.

    One of the few actors I never liked is Matthew Modine, although Kubrick used him well enough. It’s not that he’s bad; just something about him rubs me the wrong way.

  43. movieman says:

    Jesse- After “Wedding Crashers” (which is probably the first time I remember seeing BC in anything), I figured he might have an OK career in similar roles which emphasized his inherent–to borrow your succinct word for it–“douchebagginess.” But the onslaught of leading man type stuff he’s been gifted with since then continues to mystify me. As far as I’m concerned, BC lacks any discernible charisma and is definitely more creepy/off-putting than sexy/hot. Plus, you can find better actors any night of the week on network TV in countless by-the-numbers cop procedurals or sitcoms.
    What can I say? BC is just someone who annoys the f**k out of me.
    The weird thing about Williams is that I used to consider myself a fan. (“Brokeback Mountain” is probably the last thing I loved her in.)
    I’m not sure whether it was Williams’ silly, self-deluding attempt to remake herself into some kind of ersatz sexpot when she doesn’t have a sensual bone in her body (the whole bottle blonde thing reminds me of Mira Sorvino post-“Mighty Aphrodite”), or that she simply began taking herself too damn seriously as a master (or is that “mistress”?) thespian.
    Seriously. Is there a more annoyingly mannered, Method-y type actress working these days than Williams?
    In the process, she’s become someone I actively sort of/kind of despise.
    P.S.= Kind of surprised by all the anti-Channing Tatum chatter.
    I’ve always kind of dug Tatum in a “lightweight-with-potential” way, and thought that he was actually pretty darn great in “A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints.”
    Also, unlike smugly unctuous pretty boy BC, Tatum is pretty easy on the eyes, too.

  44. dinovelvet says:

    Well black audiences know who Channing is, so he’s got that working in his favor.

  45. cadavra says:

    Cooper was in a short-lived sitcom called KITCHEN CONFIDENTIAL, where he played a faux Anthony Bourdain. He showed real talent and charm in that. As is so often the case, a lot depends on the material one chooses.

  46. Joe Leydon says:

    I thought Bradley Cooper was pretty damn good in Limitless, and even held his own opposite Robert De Niro. I’m actually a bit surprised to see such animosity for him here. But, then again, it wasn’t so long ago Alec Baldwin generated the same level of dislike. Same for Rob Lowe. Curiously enough, all three of these fellows are quite good-looking (or so my female friends have told me). I don’t ever recall Joe Pesci or Burt Young getting this kind of hate. Wonder if Broderick Crawford ever had to deal with this sort of thing?

  47. LexG says:

    As always, women and gay males (ie, leahnz and movieman) concoct these TOTALLY ARBITRARY DISMISSALS of celebrities. I was in the supermarket behind some fruity gay guy and his hag last month, and the gay guy surveyed a mag with Rooney Mara on the cover and loudly proclaimed, “EW! I HATE HER! I don’t know, I JUST HATE HER!” Since most women and gay men are completely irrational and REALLY WEIRD, this is par for the course– these emotion-based EW! dismissals or YAY! wholesale embracements of people that most of us are just fine with one way or another.

    This is psychologically sound, because like all generalizations, to quote TOM LEYKIS, it’s GENERALLY TRUE. Also, predictably, your Devin Faraci-type potato-chip beardo comic-and-toy geek has these same kind of INTENSE REACTIONS to celebrities.

    Why can’t people just be fucking NORMAL and like most things? Women and gays are SO CATTY, it’s really low-class behavior. Try being more embracing instead of snarky and bitchy. When I’ve worked in ALL FEMALE/GAY offices, it’s MIND BLOWING the intensity of their catty gossiping the morning after, say, a Golden Globes telecast, getting serious venomous about EW I DID NOT LIKE HER or HE’S GROSS or HEEEEE’S COOOOOOL… these INSANELY over the top opinions about shit that doesn’t matter at all. If women read a newspaper and felt this passionately about things, maybe they wouldn’t be so easy to goof on. But most of their attention is focused on Reese’s dress or whether Brad’s a good husband or not.

    I am 100% right on this.

  48. torpid bunny says:

    Is that Chucky from Jersey?

  49. movieman says:

    I am 100% right on this.

    No you’re not, Lex.

    I was merely responding to Jesse’s comments about actors he dislikes and could never warm up to. (See above.)
    It had nothing whatsoever to do with you–aside from the fact that you seem to think that every/anything posted on the HB must somehow relate to you in an intensely personal, i.e. narcissistic way. (How very JS Partisan-ish of you, lol.)
    It also had nothing to do with gay people (or women, if you’re including Leah in your dis) in general.

  50. Rob says:

    I don’t agree with Movieman’s opinion of Williams who, at her best (Wendy and Lucy, Brokeback, Blue Valentine), is the furthest thing from mannered, but he rationally explains and supports his opinion.

    I watched Blue Valentine again last week and it convinced me more than ever that Gosling and Williams should’ve been last year’s best actor and actress. When critics say “you don’t see the acting,” they’re talking about performances like those two.

  51. Joe Leydon says:

    OK, I guess David is too tied up with Sundance to post a separate thread for this, so I’ll ask here: What do you think will be the biggest surprise when the Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning?

    My guess: There actually will be ten Best Picture nominees.

  52. JS Partisan says:

    I think Movieman insulted me up there. Maybe? Not sure. Nevertheless, Lex, the ladies and the gay men are awesome. How dare you not appreciate cattiness. Shameful. Downright shameful.

  53. LexG says:


    MOVIE CHAT!!!!!

  54. leahnz says:

    so i guess the old ‘avoid personal attacks here on the hot blog UNLESS your name is lexgee and therefore exempt from blog codes of conduct, and thereby able spew as much misogynistic, homophobic nonsense your damaged brain feels like’ cliche is in full swing on the blog again, eh

    well from ever-growing LEARN TO READ AND COMPREHEND FILES, perhaps i should reiterate what a wrote about about channing tater tot so lex can understand:

    “fwiw yes i’ve seen ‘dear john’, and i don’t hate tatum at all…”

    did the part, “i don’t hate taum at all” fail to register? this is catty? and then the fact that a few at least likely straight men have chimed in to say what a BAD actor tater tot is…and then several straight men chime in to say how they don’t particularly care for bradly cooper either…

    and yet it’s lex blubbering WOMEN AND THE GAYS, TRY LIKING STUFF!

    try COMPREHENDING stuff, egg nog. oh wait but that doesn’t fit into the endlessly repetitive not-funny drum-beating. do you ever just sit your ignorant ass down and shut the fuck up? (rhetorical question)

    oh, and perhaps since i’m letting it all hang out, lex is easily the most finicky, fussy fucker ever about ‘hot’ female celebs, lest they don’t fit into having a wank to the young miss segment of the sears underwear catalogue, so give me a break hippo-crit

    sort of on topic:

    i’ll repeat my predict for oscar:
    no ‘dragon tattoo’ nom for best pic

  55. LexG says:

    I didn’t even read that.

    What a lush.

  56. scooterzz says:

    wow! the queen of over-the-top statements and resident hot blog alcoholic dissing women and gays for over-the-top statements and then calling someone else a lush…ironic or meta?…i can never decide….

  57. scooterzz says:

    leydon — my biggest oscar related surprise came today with the announcement of ‘the razzies’ being moved… not expecting any surprises on tuesday…

  58. yancyskancy says:

    torpid: No, it’s a DIFFERENT Chucky who’s obsessed with name-checking and lack of originality.

    Joe: Not sure there’ll be any Oscar surprises, but I’ll make up a couple for fun: Tilda gets in over Rooney; Robert Forster gets a second surprise nod, knocking out Nolte or Jonah Hill.

  59. jesse says:

    Forster for The Descendants? I don’t buy that (though I feel like almost any of the Supporting Actor guys are vulnerable).

    Of the presumed Best Actress candidates, it’s Close who’s not making it in. Albert Nobbs is just too medicine-y and, I’d wager, underseen. I think Mara will get in for Dragon Tattoo. Though if Close makes it in we could be looking at an ALL TIME collection of decent performances in middling movies (I may have said this on another thread at some point):

    Close in Albert Nobbs
    Streep in The Iron Lady
    Swinton in We Need to Talk about Kevin
    Williams in My Week with Marilyn
    Davis in The Help

    What a MISERABLE collection of movies I never ever want to see again that would be. The best of that lot is The Help. So I hope Mara or Theron gets in, but I won’t hold my breath for my DREAM FIVE:

    Mara in Dragon Tatto
    Theron in Young Adult
    Dunst in Melancholia
    Wiig in Bridesmaids
    Paquin in Margaret


    As far as big surprises, I don’t know, I think Tree of Life will go in for Best Director, but will that be so surprising? It was mostly guild-ignored but I’m guessing that’s a fluke or something.

    Moneyball will be actor, adapted screenplay, MAYBE supporting actor, ONLY. Which is fine. About as much as it deserves.

    Dragon Tattoo may slip into picture and will do surprisingly well with other tech nods (maybe not that surprising as it’s been cleaning up at guild nominations). It may wind up with five or six overall (editing, cinematography, score, actress, screenplay, maybe picture).

  60. hcat says:

    Joe, Don’t remember much backlash against Baldwin other than he looked like the next big thing and sank like a stone over poor choices. Lowe was a lightweight who NEVER gave a decent performance even when branching out into real movies (Hotel New Hampshire, About Last Night). Lowe is simply a fluffy prettyboy who has found his natural level as a pleasant diversion in supporting roles on television. As for Pesci, Dear Lord how is he not more despised? While he is capable of greatness (I found his performance in The Public Eye quite endearing) his terrible mugging in the Home Alones, Jimmy Hollywood and especially the beyond awful With Honors completely poison the well.

    As for the Oscars, I really think Tilda will not only be nominated but take the prize this year. She is someone I think is respected greatly in the industry and whom they would like to reward.

  61. spassky says:

    dragon tattoo will only be nommed in tech categories.

  62. Pat says:

    Betweeen his Oscar and the success of ‘My Cousin Vinny’, Hollywood got the idea that Pesci could carry films. But he didn’t have the star charisma to pull it off. I’m shocked that he and Tomei never made any Vinny sequels. It could have been a good modern-“Thin Man”, comic-mystery franchise.

  63. Hallick says:

    “Lowe is simply a fluffy prettyboy who has found his natural level as a pleasant diversion in supporting roles on television.”

    Lowe was awesome on The West Wing and nothing near fluffy. Other than that…I dunno, he just did a lot of crap in his film heyday. I think he’d be a great supporting actor if he went back now.

    “The Public Eye” was such a great destined-to-be-lost movie. If I had a cable channel of my own, it’d be on all the time.

  64. Hallick says:

    Close’s problem might just be that I haven’t seen a single still or frame from that movie that convinces me she’d pass for a man in a world full of white canes and guide dogs.

  65. yancyskancy says:

    jesse: Not really saying I buy it either; I haven’t even seen THE DESCENDANTS. Just throwing it out there. If the Academy really digs a movie, they can be pretty free with the acting nods (Penelope Milford in COMING HOME comes to mind).

    hcat: Tilda just won an Oscar, what – four years ago? I know Meryl has two, but none since ’82. Close, Williams and Davis have previous nods, but no wins. So I’m guessing that even if Tilda gets in, she won’t win.

  66. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    “Seriously. Is there a more annoyingly mannered, Method-y type actress working these days than Williams?’

    Or maybe she just threw herself into her work after the love of her life died at such a young age you heartless quince!

  67. JS Partisan says:

    Really Hal? That trailer convinced the hell out of me. That aside, Pat brings up an awesome point. Why in the hell didn’t we get a Vinny sequel? Seriously, those two characters are tremendous in that film, so why not give them another go?

  68. scooterzz says:

    set your tivos for next saturday…the HBO special on JOE NAMATH is pretty wonderful…

  69. hcat says:

    I believe they had a Vinny 2 script set in England all set to go and that Pesci had committed and Tomei had not.

  70. Geoff says:

    Interesting thread, here – I know that Wahlberg is all respectable, now. But honestly, the only roles I really buy him in are when he plays assholes – really, you gotta give props to Scorcese for knowing EXACTLY what to do with him. Wahlberg steals The Departed from….Nicholson, Sheen, Baldwin, Damon, damn impressive!

    Tatum is probably not a bad actor, but his physical make-up is always going to limit him – the guy is HUGE, he won’t be able to play bookish types or nerds if he tries. However….he can leave that to Jesee Eisenberg.

    And some one up there just talked shit about Diesel – I don’t care what any one says, he was AWESOME in that Sidney Lumet movie.

    As for the Rock, dude is likeable enough, but wow, does he have eh tastes in projects and seems to make a lot of uber-safe choices. Think about it, he has now jumped into four different franchises after they started: Fast/Furious, GI Joe, Journey 2, and he did the lousy overdue sequel to Get Shorty, Be Cool. I don’t think there has been a more relentless franchise jumper since Steve Guttenberg.

  71. Joe Leydon says:

    Glad to feel the love for The Public Eye. Pesci’s last line to Barbara Hershey — “You have no idea what I would have done for you!” — really deserves a place in the Great Dialogue Pantheon.

  72. Paul D/Stella says:

    Speaking of The Rock, watched Faster over the weekend. Odd movie. Does he even utter 100 words total? Still, he has a really commanding screen presence and tons of charisma. I sort of liked it. And Snitch sounds pretty intriguing.

  73. hcat says:

    While everything else about Be Cool was terrible, The Rock was actually exuberent and hilarious. It was strange to see that in a movie where Thurman, Travolta and Vince Vaughn were delivering career low work, a pro wrestler of all things gives an outragous self deprecating perfomance and run circles around them. I often want to watch it again for The Rock’s scenes but the rest of the movie is such a trainwreck I can’t bring myself to do it.

  74. bulldog68 says:

    The Rock is getting paid. How many former wrestlers do you know have made a successful transistion from ring to screen? And The Rundown was one of the best action movies that year. He has done what has eluded Stallone and Arnold alomst all their movie career, and that is do comedy successfully.

    Also adding him to Fast Five paid off very well. They now have a Fugitive/Furious mix that give the franchise a breath of life when it could have been dying out. So his tastes have been commercially pretty good.

    And as for GI Joe, they are pairing him with probably the only other action star that does comedy well, Bruce Willis, so while I wish it was in a better franchise, just seeing those two together should be worth some butts in the seats.

  75. cadavra says:

    I think the hatred of Baldwin was more for his politics than his acting. If you go over to Big Hollywood, you’ll be surprised to learn that the most hated man in America right now is Matt Damon.

    The thing about surprises is that you don’t see them coming, so trying to predict them is kinda wheel-spinning. But just for the hell of it, I’ll throw one out anyway: Philip Seymour Hoffman for IDES OF MARCH.

    And if you dig deep into Lex’s rant, there IS a nugget of truth there: we as a society are far more obsessed with gossip (and especially worthless nonsense like who’s wearing what) than we ever were before. I honestly don’t care about anyone named Kardashian, and the fact that so many people do (and at the expense of awareness of people who actually do matter) is fairly frightening.

  76. yancyskancy says:

    Okay, one more b.s. surprise prediction: No Leo. Instead, the slot goes to a long shot such as Oldman, Gosling, Bechir or Shannon.

  77. bulldog68 says:

    My Oscar wish: Ben Kingsley for Best Supporting

  78. LexG says:

    Elle Fanning for SUPER 8. Make it happen.

  79. JKill says:

    This thread went other places, but I’ll chime in with the stone cold fact that HAYWIRE is so, so, so much delicious fun. Tonally, it’s probably the closest thing Soderbergh will come to making another OCEAN’S movie but with a hint of THE LIMEY and the addition of those blistering fight scenes that had me wincing throughout. And Carano is worshiped by the camera in a way similar, though through very different aesthetic means, to what Tarantino did with Thurman in KILL BILL. A great, quick blast of a film.

  80. GexL says:

    Best Actress=Evan Rachel WOOD in Mildred Pierce. Or was that a TV thing?

  81. jesse says:

    AGREED, JKill. Haywire = fucking awesome. The carping about it over on the Hollywood Elsewhere thread was actually making me angry even though it was just silly comments on a silly movie blog.

  82. Rashad says:

    What the hell? Arnold did comedy just fine in Jingle All The Way, True Lies, Last Action Hero and Commando. I love The Rock, but he hasn’t been all that funny in his movies at all. His best comedic performance was in that football movie with the little girl

  83. Glamourboy says:

    Good to know that Lex is totally, absolutely, 100% against TOTALLY ARBITRARY DISMISSALS of celebrities. They need someone to stand up for them.

    What Lex isn’t for is the TOTALLY ARBITRARY DISMISSALS of everybody else. Especially women and gay men.

    He hates when women and gay men gossip and say ‘catty’ things about celebrities.

    He doesn’t mind gossiping about people’s sexuality and saying catty things about people on this board.

    Just wanted to make sure I got that 100% right.

  84. jesse says:

    He’s pretty funny in Southland Tales and Be Cool. And when he’s done SNL.

  85. anghus says:

    just saw the artist. i hope it wins everything.

  86. JS Partisan says:

    Did you see Hugo? After seeing Hugo, that’s how I felt. It should win everything.

  87. Geoff says:

    Since when is Gary Oldman a longshot??? Come on!

  88. Triple Option says:

    Et tu, anghus?

  89. yancyskancy says:

    Geoff: Maybe “longshot” is pushing it, but most of the prognosticators seem to give Oldman only an outside chance. I think the last Gurus o’ Gold poll had him at #6.

    Well, either way we’ll know in a few hours.

  90. storymark says:

    “Arnold did comedy just fine in Jingle All The Way, True Lies, Last Action Hero and Commando. ”

    I’ll give you ONE of those as a genuine comedy that worked.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon