By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report: January 1, 2012

Ring Out the Old

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol once again topped the weekend charts with a three day estimated gross of $31 million.

Initial estimates peg the year with roughly a $10.2 billion tally that would cash out about 4% below 2011. It’s also apt to mean a 6% decline in admissions with no immediate strategy to reverse the on-going movie going erosion.

The current session also featured the first full weekends for War Horse and The Darkest Hour in wide release and a few new entries squeaking in for award consideration. Of the latter, the most dynamic was the Thatcher portrait The Iron Lady that rang up a considerable $72,000 average from its four playdates. Also potent was Iranian Oscar submission A Separation with $57,500 at three venues while the urban drama Pariah had just OK returns of $43,700 from four screens.

The three-day portion of 2011’s final weekend generated roughly $170 million worth of ticket sales. Following weeks of declines, the final surge posted a 28% boost from the prior weekend and was up 4% from last year’s 52nd weekend when Little Fockers posted $30.8 million and True Grit was the bridesmaid with $24.6 million.

New editions of Mission: Impossible, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks have emerged as the seasonal hits. The commercial fates of War Horse, We Bought a Zoo and especially The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo with two further episodes in the works hinge on sustainability in the new year and international response. This particular trio won’t likely maximize on awards traction.

The season has already seen disappointing response for family friendly The Muppets, Hugo and Happy Feet Two while Young Adult prospects for a second wind based upon Oscar nominations remain a giant question mark.

The announcement of Oscar nominations are just a few weeks away and with so many critics groups and Golden Globe postings already known the Academy declaration could be a giant anti-climax. The biggest surprise could well boil down to the number of best picture nominees.

Still, there’s a margin of time for companies with Oscar contenders to “remind” us all of their wares and shoe horn some high profile nominations. It’s gearing up like the fight for a Republican presidential candidate – with a perceived front runner that no one’s YET fully embraced and the prospect looming that someone can upset the apple cart.

And btw Happy New Year!

Weekend (estimates) December 30, 2011 – January 1, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol Par 31.0 (8,960) 5% 3455 133.9
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows WB 22.1 (5,960) 9% 3703 132.1
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked Fox 18.1 (4,850) 44% 3724 94.4
War Horse BV 16.7 (6,540) NEW 2547 42.7
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Sony 15.6 (5,350) 22% 2914 56.4
We Bought a Zoo Fox 14.1 (4,460) 51% 3163 41.6
The Adventures of Tintin Par 11.7 (3,780) 4% 3087 47.5
New Year’s Eve WB 6.8 (3,070) 106% 2225 46.5
The Darkest Hour Summit 4.3 (1,860) NEW 2327 13.3
The Descendants Fox Searchlight 3.8 (4,990) 82% 758 39.8
The Muppets BV 2.7 (1,760) 26% 1541 82.6
Hugo Par 2.4 (2.550) 14% 951 49.4
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Summit 2.1 (1,460) 40% 1411 275.5
Young Adult Par 2.1 (2,160) -1% 987 12.1
The Artist Weinstein Co. 1.5 (8,800) 66% 167 5.2
The Sitter Fox 1.5 (1,130) -12% 1348 26.2
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy Focus 1.2 (21,270) 63% 55 4
My Week with Marilyn Weinstein Co. 1.0 (1,520) 71% 630 9
Arthur Christmas Sony .76 (500) -64% 1524 46
Puss in Boots Par .74 (1,900) 74% 389 145.5
Don 2 Big Pictures .42 (2,590) -75% 162 3.1
Happy Feet Two WB .39 (740) 78% 525 60
A Dangerous Method Sony Classics .31 (5,380) 58% 58 1.6
J. Edgar WB .27 (590) 93% 455 36.6
Tower Heist Uni .26 (1,030) 90% 253 76.7
The Iron Lady Weinstein Co. .23 (72,000) NEW 4 0.23
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $160.20
% Change (Last Year) 4%
% Change (Last Week) 28%
Also debuting/expanding
Shame Searchlight/Alliance .19 (3,510) 56% 55 1.9
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB .10 (17,330) 6 0.31
Carnage Sony Classics .10 (8,300) 71% 12 0.36
A Separation Sony Classics 57,500 (19,170) 3 0.06
Pariah Focus 43,700 (10,920) 4 0.08
In the Land of Blood and Honey Film District 7,700 (3,850) -59% 2 0
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Dec. 18, 2011)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Paramount (22) 1786.1 18.40%
Warner Bros. (29) 1701.5 17.60%
Sony (28) 1212.4 12.50%
Buena Vista (16) 1182.9 12.20%
Universal (18) 1039.4 10.70%
20th Century Fox (18) 868.3 9.00%
Summit (9) 391.5 4.00%
Lions Gate (16) 185 1.90%
Fox Searchlight (13) 140.3 1.60%
Film District (4) 125.9 1.30%
Focus (8) 124.5 1.30%
Sony Classics (18) 86.6 0.90%
CBS (3) 57.5 0.60%
Other * (337) 269.1 2.80%
9688 100.00%
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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4